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The global oil price is falling and could continue to fall.
Technical analysis suggests that oil prices could fall a little more, though it may be a bumpy road. Click here for a detailed chart. Brent, the benchmark crude oil price for the world, hit a low of $77.75 Wednesday, according to LSEG data. Brent, the global benchmark for crude oil prices, fell to a three-month low of $77.75 on Wednesday, according to data provided by LSEG. Imagine a support level as a 'floor.' It is a price where buyers historically have stepped in to prevent a further decline. If that floor is broken, it means that the sellers are in full control. Technically, the 10-week average, which smooths price fluctuations for the last ten weeks, is at $97.02. It acts as a ceiling and keeps any recovery in check. If selling pressure continues, the next?downside goal is the 100-week moving avg. at $74.78. A rally above the 10-week average would indicate?that this sell-off is over and revive the chances of a recovery. The chart below shows: Brent crude falls below the key support levels of $86.09 and $79,46, reaching a three-month low at $77.55. The 10-week moving average at $97.02 acts as resistance and caps any rebound. The next target is $74.78, as determined by the longer-term moving average
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Gold prices rise as oil prices fall and the dollar is bolstered by hawkish Fed
Gold prices rose on Thursday, as a lower oil price following the?U.S. Iran ceasefire agreement countered pressures from a stronger US dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve language. Gold spot was up 0.2% to $4,264.67 an ounce by 0913 GMT following a 1.7% drop on Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 2.2% to $4285.00. Oil prices dropped after the U.S. signed an interim deal with Iran that would 'end their conflict,' reopen Strait of Hormuz, and lift U.S. sanctions against Tehran oil. This boosted the outlook for oil supplies. Han Tan, Bybit's chief market analyst, says that gold is on the rise, as bulls are looking to squeeze even more out of the U.S.Iran interim peace deal. However, the upside potential remains limited by market expectations of at least one Fed interest rate hike before the end of the year. Tan continued, "The hawkish Fed will leave'spot gold' with a greater bias to dip back into the sub-$4,000 water rather than reclaiming $5,000 in the second half 2026." The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. However, policymakers are expecting a rise in borrowing costs by the end of this year due to growing concerns over inflation that is above the 2% target set by the U.S. Central Bank. Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair, announced at a press conference that he would be launching a number of task forces in order to look more closely at central bank operations. According to CME FedWatch Tool the markets have now priced in an approximately?84% chance of a U.S. interest rate hike in December. In a high interest rate environment, gold is less appealing because it has no yield. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.5%, adding?pressure to prices. The dollar index is stronger, making metals denominated in dollars more expensive to holders of other currencies. ANZ stated in a report that "physical demand, particularly from China, 'and central bank purchases are underpinning market." Silver spot rose by 0.2% per ounce to $68.10, while platinum dropped 1.2% to $1715.60, and palladium fell by 1.9% to 1,288.07.
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Stocks fall as Fed rate outlook offsets optimism about Iran deal
The global stock market was torn Thursday between optimism and concern over the possibility of an increase in U.S. interest rates?this coming year following the Federal Reserve meeting. The United States and Iran released their agreement on Wednesday, which extends the ceasefire that was announced in April for another 60 days. This will allow both sides to negotiate a peace. The agreement also calls for the full resume of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz "without charge". Oil dropped 2.8% more to $77 per barrel. This is the lowest price since early March. Futures and shares fell in Europe, causing global stocks to drop by 0.1%. This was a reaction to the record-high shares that were set in Tokyo and Seoul overnight. Yoshimasa M. Maruyama is the chief market economist of SMBC Nikko Securities. He warned that there were still uncertainties. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has threatened to resume his attacks on Iran and to kill Iranian officials in case they fail to honor their commitments. Maruyama stated in a letter that "the current toll-free period is only 60 days and the future framework is uncertain. This leaves lingering questions." In Europe, the STOXX 600 dropped 0.5% as energy stocks such as Shell and BP were offset by gains in tech shares like?ASML and Infineon, and AI-exposed industrial company Schneider Electric. The European economies are more susceptible to inflation due to higher oil prices. However, the weighting of energy shares across national markets has kept the pan-regional indicator slightly in the negative. U.S. Stock Futures edged up, with S&P500 E-minis as well as Nasdaq100 E-minis both up around 1%. Dollar rose for the second day in a row after the Fed left rates at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% in its first meeting as a new chair, Kevin Warsh. As inflation concerns grow, nearly half of the Fed's policymakers now expect an increase this year. Warsh, for his part opened the new era by a comprehensive policy review. He did not add his forecasts to the "dot chart" which is a visual representation where each member anticipates rates will be in the future. Money markets indicate that traders are now expecting a rate increase by October. This is up from an 80% chance of a rise by the end the year, earlier in the week. "We expected Warsh would be critical of 'forward guidance. But he was even faster than we anticipated in introducing his leadership style to the Fed. Some worry that a Fed that does not provide guidance could cause financial markets to be confused. We think the opposite is true. "The laser focus on price could make it easier to forecast what the Fed will do next", XTB research director Kathleen Brooks stated. The dollar index (which tracks the U.S. currencies against six other currencies) was slightly stronger at 100.46. This is near its highest level in two months. The euro fell?0.1% to $1.15 while the pound dropped 0.2%. Both currencies were down ahead of a Bank of England Meeting later that day, where rates are expected to be left unchanged. The benchmark 10-year note yielded 4.45% at the end of the day. This was down by 1 basis point. Two-year notes are also down, with a yield of 4.168%. They had posted their worst performance for three months on the previous day. (Additional reporting from Satoshi Sugyama in Tokyo, Editing by Jamie Freed and Neil Fullick)
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China defends crucial minerals export controls following G7 statement
China defended its export controls on 'critical mineral supplies' and called on the Group of Seven nations to respect market economy principles and international trading rules, rather than favouring a "small clique", said its Foreign Ministry on Thursday. The comments follow an agreement made by G7 leaders Wednesday to increase coordination in order to reduce their countries' dependence on China for essential minerals, including plans to align stocks and to?expand? the role of International Energy Agency. Lin Jian, spokesperson for the foreign ministry, said that China's efforts to improve and standardise its export control system were in line with international practice. He added that the goal was to "better safeguard" world peace and regional security and to fulfill international commitments related to nonproliferation. He urged the G7 leaders not to "impose rules of small groups" which undermine international economic and trading order. Western powers are racing to diversify metals essential to defence, technology, and renewable energy, and reduce their dependence on China. Last year, Beijing's export restrictions?on permanent magnetics?had a disruptive effect on various industries, and revealed the reliance of these industries on one source. The G7 leaders, without mentioning China, said that they hoped to reduce their dependence on one particular supplier for permanent magnets and rare earths, to less than 60% by 2030. They also aimed to achieve a 50% reduction "as quickly as possible."
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Media reports: South Korea will keep fuel price caps as US-Iran Deal Impact is assessed
Local media reported that South Korea will maintain its current fuel prices until there is more clarity about the U.S. Iran agreement and its impact upon global oil markets. Yang Gi-wook a senior official in the industry ministry, told a briefing the government would decide if the next round of ceilings will be set after monitoring the progress towards 'ending the Middle East Conflict, the reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the movements of global oil prices. Yang said that the current price caps are expected to last for two to four weeks. However, it is too early to predict when the system will end. According to reports, the government will also consider 'factors such as the impact on household, fiscal costs, and domestic fuel prices, before raising them. Since March 13, when the Middle East conflict began, the 'industry ministry' has announced fuel price ceilings every 2 weeks. However, it extended the adjustment cycle from 6 weeks to 4 weeks. (Reporting and editing by Ed Davies.)
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Gold firms benefit from lower oil prices following US-Iran ceasefire agreement
Gold prices rose on Thursday, as lower oil costs following the 'U.S.-Iran truce deal' helped bullion recover losses from the previous session caused by Federal Reserve rhetoric that was hawkish. As of 0830 GMT on Thursday, spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,284.67 an ounce after falling 1.7% Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 1.8% to $4304.30. Oil prices dropped after the U.S. and Iran signed a temporary agreement to end the Iran War, reopen?Strait of Hormuz and lift U.S. sanctions against Tehran's oil. Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Bybit, said that gold is rebounding today after markets quickly moved past the Fed’s hawkish signal. Bulls are opting to squeeze even more gains from the US-Iran interim agreement. Tan said that "the hawkish Fed will leave spot gold with a bias to dip back into the sub-$4,000 water rather than reclaiming $5,000 in the second half 2026." The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. However, policymakers are expecting a rise in borrowing costs this year due to growing concerns over inflation that is above the US. The central bank has a 2% inflation target. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced at a press conference that he would be launching a number of task forces in order to examine central bank operations. According to CME FedWatch, the markets have a 85% chance of an increase in U.S. rates in December. In an environment of high interest rates, gold is less appealing because it has no yield. ANZ stated in a note that the "gold market is underpinned by physical demand from China and central banks buying." The report added that structural drivers such as geopolitics, de-dollarisation and other factors remain supportive. Silver spot rose by 0.4%, to $68.24 an ounce. Platinum fell by 0.1%, to $1735.34, while palladium remained flat at $1312.5.
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Singapore's oil products stockpiles recover, but hover at a 13-year low
Singapore's oil product inventories, Asia's main trading hub, remained near 13-year lows for a second consecutive week, mainly due to softer distillates and stable residual stocks. Official data on Thursday showed that middle distillates inventories had risen. Enterprise Singapore's data shows that onshore oil product inventories totaled around 35.26 millions barrels for the week ending 17 June, a slight increase from the 34.41million barrels of the previous week. Since the U.S. - Iran war began, oil stocks have been dwindling globally due to a lack of cargo shipments from the Strait of Hormuz as well as a reduction in existing inventories. LIGHT DISTILLATES, RESIDUES STEADY Singapore's light distillate stocks, which include naphtha, gasoline and other products, have fallen to their lowest level in two weeks, at about 12 million barrels. Exports of gasoline were far greater than imports. Strong outbound flows into Indonesia, Australia and Malaysia drained stocks. The total gasoline exports in the past week were 572,000 tons. This was far more than imports, which were roughly 233,000 tons. Indonesia accounted for about 320,000 tons. India and Taiwan both contributed 118,000 metric tons each, but this was not enough to counteract the decline. Imports of 155,000 tons of naphtha exceeded exports by 20,000 tonnes. Cargoes from Russia and Norway, at 54,000 tons each, outweighed outbound shipments of Malaysia at 20,000 tons. The residual fuel stockpiles were not much different from the week before, when they had fallen to a near-eight-year low. Stockpiles increased by 1.0%, to approximately 15 million barrels (2.36 millions tons), which is still below average. The volume of imports for heavy distillates fell by 1.3%, to 517,000 tonnes, from the previous year. The majority of imports came from the United States due to strong arbitrage arrivals across Asia in recent weeks. Exports rose 66.2%, to over 481,000 tons. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were the two main export markets. Middle Eastern fuel oil supplies have remained constrained up to now, but Asian markets for fuel oil have fallen as traders anticipate a gradual resumption in 'Hormuz flow. This week, spot fuel oil premiums returned to levels seen before the war. MIDDLE DISTRILLATES SURGE Middle distillates, which include jet fuel and diesel, rose by more than 1.3m barrels in a week, despite a rise in net exports. Net exports of diesel and gasoil rose by?21% compared to a previous week. South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan were the main importers, while the exports mainly went to regional destinations such as Australia, Malaysia?, New Zealand?and Vietnam? Kpler data predicts that June imports will reach a two-month record. Two'swing cargoes' from the Middle East, and India, are expected to arrive this week. Net exports of jet fuel increased by over 80% from week to week, following the decline of 25% in imports.
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After the Iran War, Saudi Aramco is considering expanding its storage capacity around the world
Aramco chairman Yasir al-Rumayyan stated on Thursday that the Iran War had disrupted energy supplies through the 'Strait of Hormuz. Rumayyan is the governor of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund PIF. Rumayyan spoke at the FII PRIORITY Europe'summit', held in Rome by the 'Saudi non profit institute Future Investing Initiative, which has the backing of PIF. FII organizes Riyadh’s annual flagship summit. Known to some as “Davos in the Desert”, this event brings together world leaders and bankers, along with business executives. Rumayyan stated that PIF has invested EUR98 billion ($112,86 billion) in Europe and Britain from 2017 to 2025 while Aramco has deployed EUR80 billion with European suppliers. He said that the European market's regulations were the biggest obstacle to investment. Rumayyan stated that "Regulatory challenges are really hindering investors, such as Aramco SABIC PIF to not only invest more but to keep their investment in Europe." "European regulators are looking into it." "Hopefully, we will have better solutions."
China News: Copper prices rise after US-Iran Deal Report
The price of copper rebounded Thursday, following a'report that the U.S.A. and Iran had'reached an agreement to extend their ceasefire. It also followed news about a 'fresh effort by China, a top metals consumer to boost its economy. The report by Axios that President Donald Trump must still approve the deal was not immediately confirmed.
The London Metal Exchange's three-month copper gained 1.2% at 1600 GMT to reach $13,696 per metric ton after falling to its lowest price since May 21 (at $13,464). Prices had risen earlier from their intra-day lows after sources reported that the 'China Central Bank' has ordered banks to increase lending in this month. This underscores Beijing's ongoing efforts to support an economy squeezed by high energy costs and persistently weak domestic demand.
After the Axios article reported that the U.S. reached a deal with Iran for a 60 day?ceasefire and to begin talks about Iran's nuclear program, oil prices retreated and traded lower.
Investors are trying to balance the possibility of lower metals demand as the conflict reduces economic growth with the prospect of copper scarcity due to a lack of sulphuric acids.
U.S. Comex Copper Futures increased by 0.9% to $6.43 a lb. This brings the?premium for Comex over LME to 3.5%, or $479 a tonne. Copper has been shipped to the U.S. steadily by traders ahead of the decision expected at the end June on whether or not to impose tariffs.
Ewa Manthey is a commodities?strategist with ING. She said, "Copper 'prices' are supported by tariff-driven trade, as material flows into the U.S. in anticipation of possible policy?changes. This has led to a tightening of availability in other areas."
LME lead climbed 0.5% to $2.016.50 per ton. This reversed earlier losses, after LME inventories data showed that nearly 30,000 tonnes of metal were deposited into Taiwanese warehouses on Thursday.
LME aluminium?gained 0.6%, to $3.658 per ton. Nickel added 0.6%, to $19.065, Zinc rose 1.2%, to $3.553, and Tin advanced 1.6%, to $55,250.
(source: Reuters)