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After Trump's trigger, the dollar is steadied
The dollar took a breather on Wednesday, after a sell-off became a rout. U.S. president?Donald Trump appeared to dismiss recent weakness in the global reserve currency. Meanwhile,?stocks? scaled record highs due to optimism over earnings. The dollar's plunge lifted the euro above $1.20, the highest level since 2021. It also sent the Australian dollar to a 3-year high of 70 cents, lifted gold prices to new heights, and increased commodity prices, which are measured in dollars. The dollar clawed back to 152.76 yen in the Asia session, after which trade settled. Dollar selloffs are the most severe since Trump's tariff war rocked markets in April last year. The dollar's decline has been fueled by concerns about Trump's erratic policymaking, his attacks on the Federal Reserve and the outlook for interest rates. Trump responded, "Dollar is doing great," when asked by a reporter if it was falling too much recently. Steve Englander is the head of Standard Chartered's global G10 currency analysis in New York. He said that "often officials will push back on sudden currency moves, but when the president expresses his indifference to the move or even endorses it, this encourages USD sellers" to continue pushing. The dollar fell by more than 9% in the first year after Trump's second presidential term, 2025. No policy changes are expected when the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday to set rates. Focus will be on if the tone matches the two rate reductions that markets have priced in for this year, and how Jerome Powell handles questions about Fed Independence. GOLD'S REPORT RUN LEAVES BTC BEHIND The weaker dollar has filtered down to other assets, helping gold to reach a new record of $5,241 per ounce. Brent crude futures have also reached a new four-month high at $67.98 per barrel. In Asia, Treasury yields are essentially unchanged at?4.233%. Bitcoin has been left behind and is still pinned below $90,000. Wall Street's S&P 500 closed at a record high overnight, ahead of the big?tech earnings starting with Meta and Tesla following the close of Wednesday. S&P futures in Asia were 0.2% higher and European futures 0.2% lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 2%, reaching a four-and-a half year high. The release of the December inflation data in Australia has led to expectations that a rate increase could be announced as early as next week. ANZ, Westpac and all four "Big Four" Australian banks have now predicted a rate rise. Indonesia's stock market fell 7% as index provider MSCI expressed concern about the opaqueness of ownership and trading. It also halted updating Indonesian entries to its products which are monitored by global investors. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Jacqueline Wong and Tom Westbrook)
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Demand for iron ore falls as construction stops weigh down on demand
The price of iron ore continued to fall on Wednesday as the Chinese Lunar New Year approaches, and construction projects slow down. This is affecting the demand for steel, feedstocks, and other metals. As of 0311 GMT, the most-traded contract for May?iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.44% lower. It was 785 yuan (US$113.02) per metric ton. The benchmark March ore at the Singapore Exchange fell 0.5% to $103.3 per ton. According to Chinese broker Everbright Futures, the?demand for downstream steel has decreased as construction projects have ceased in the run-up to Chinese Lunar New Year. The company Vale announced a record-breaking 336.1 million tons of iron ore in 2025. This is the first time in 2018 that Vale's production has exceeded that of Rio Tinto in Australia's Pilbara operation. According to a late-Monday filing, the company had halted its operations in units that analysts estimate account for 2% of the iron ore production forecast for this year. The sites were affected by water flooding. Iron ore prices in China will be impacted by an increase in Brazilian iron ore exports. As Brazil enters the rainy season, it is expected that Brazilian shipments will experience a seasonal drop. According to a report from the Shanghai Metals Market, port inventories will offset any potential benefits of reduced shipments. Coking coal and?coke, which are used to make steel, also fell, by 0.8% and 1.04 percent, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have lost ground. Rebar fell 0.41%, while hot-rolled coil dropped 0.39%. Wire rod also cooled by 0.06%, and stainless steel declined 1.5%. ($1 = 6.9454 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich; Ruth Chai)
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Oil prices fluctuate as US supply concerns persist after winter storm
On Wednesday, oil prices were mixed. Brent was down slightly while the U.S. contract edged higher. Supply concerns increased after a winter storm disrupted production and stopped Gulf Coast exports at the weekend. Brent crude futures dropped 6 cents or 0.1% to $67.51 a 'barrel' by 0122 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude rose 4 cents or 0.1% to $62.43 a 'barrel. Both benchmarks rose by about 3% Tuesday. Analysts and traders estimate that U.S. oil producers lost as much as 2 million barrels of crude oil per day, or 15%, over the weekend due to the storm straining the?energy grids and infrastructure. Ship tracking service Vortexa reported that Crude and Liquefied Natural Gas exports from U.S. Gulf Coast port ports fell to zero on Sunday. Toshitaka?Securities analyst Toshitaka?Tazawa said that the impact of U.S. Cold Snap and supply disruptions in Kazakhstan are driving up prices. However, once these fears subside, it is likely that selling pressure will return. He said that the balance between geopolitical risk, including Middle East tensions and a projected surplus of supply this year, could keep WTI around $60 per barrel for the time being. Two sources with knowledge of the situation said that Tengiz's largest oilfield in Kazakhstan is expected to recover from its fire and power failure slowly, and will likely only restore half its normal production on February 7. After completing maintenance on one of the three moorings at its Black Sea terminal, CPC announced that it had returned to full capacity. MIDEAST TENSE INCLUDES SUPPLY FEARS Two U.S. officials said on Monday that a U.S. aircraft carriers and accompanying warships had arrived in the Middle East. This increased President Donald Trump's ability to?defend U.S. troops, or possibly take military action against Iran. OPEC+ (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - plus Russia and other allies) is expected to maintain its pause in?oil production increases for March during a meeting held on February 1. A poll conducted on Tuesday showed that U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles are expected to have increased in the week ending January 23. Distillate inventories, however, were likely to be down. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to confirm that U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks all fell last week while the latter rose. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Yuka Obayashi)
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Ampol, Australia's largest fuel retailer, sees its earnings increase thanks to the domestic arm
Ampol, Australia's largest fuel retailer, forecast higher full-year earnings?Wednesday. This was supported by solid gains at its convenience retail arm and New Zealand operations. It also reported higher quarterly output. New South Wales based firm, whose EBIT is expected to reach around A$945 ($662.35 millions) in fiscal year 2025. This is up from A$715.2 (A$715.2) million the previous year. The full-year EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation) is expected to be around A$1,435million. Retail convenience volumes fell to 889 million (ML) litres in the fourth quarter, from 864 ML one quarter earlier. New Zealand volumes also dropped to 984 from 901ML. The margins for its Lytton Refinery increased to $15.14 per barrel from $10.64 in the previous quarter. This was due to higher?diesel fuel margins, as refinery outages and new Russian sanctions tightened up supply. After Washington announced tough sanctions against Russia's oil industry, global diesel prices and refinery margins jumped. This fueled expectations that fuel supplies would be tighter. The refinery's output in the quarter ended December 31, up from the September quarter of 1,252 ML, grew to 1,558 ML as a result of favourable margins. The group's total sales volume was 6,699 ML. This is down 11% compared to a year earlier. As of 0112 GMT the stock fell 4.09% to A$29.09 while the benchmark index was mostly flat. The global demand for oil is under pressure as the supply exceeds demand, and the shift?towards renewables accelerates. Markets are expecting revenue contraction in this sector, according to Jessica Amir, an online trading platform Moomoo's market strategist. Amir said that investors are moving?out of energy shares facing structural headwinds into sectors with stronger tailwinds such as metals which benefit from artificial intelligence driven infrastructure demand.
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SK Innovation posts quarterly profit surge, projects strong crack spreads
SK Innovation Co Ltd.,?owners of South Korea's largest refiner SK Energy?, said on Wednesday that it expects crack spreadings to continue strong as U.S. policies of low oil prices persist despite easing demand in winter and the hope of a Russia-Ukraine truce. The company reported an operating profit for the period October-December of 295 billion won ($205.88 millions) compared to a profit of just 176 billion won?a year ago. This was below the average analyst's forecast of?351bn won. SK Innovation stated in a press release that despite its strong refining margins in the fourth quarter, its operating?profit dropped by 291 billion won compared to the previous 'quarter. This was due to a?slowing profit in their battery business. Battery unit SK On, a supplier to Ford Motor Co., Volkswagen, and Hyundai Motor, saw its operating losses increase from 125 billion won the previous quarter, as EV sales in the United States slowed down further after the expiration of subsidies for battery powered?vehicles. Peer S-Oil Corp., whose primary shareholder is Saudi Aramco said on Monday that it had logged an 89 percent surge in its fourth-quarter operating profits and expected the first-quarter refinery?margins would remain robust because of?steady supply disruptions, steady demand and the planned closing of a U.S. refining plant. After the earnings announcement on Wednesday, shares of SK Innovation rose 0.4% versus KOSPI’s 1.3% increase.
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Vale's Iron Ore Production will surpass Rio Tinto Pilbara's Pilbara by 2025.
Vale, a Brazilian mining company, announced on Tuesday that it expects its iron ore output to reach 336.1 million tons by 2025. This is the first time since 2018 that Vale's production will surpass that of Rio Tinto Pilbara in Australia. Vale's output rose by 2.6% in the last year compared to 2024. This is in line with its December projection that it would be producing around 335 millions metric tons. In 2025's fourth quarter, the company produced 90.4 million tonnes, an increase of 6% on a year-on-year basis. Analysts say that Vale's results, which include copper and nickel mining, exceeded expectations. Citi and RBC both projected that Vale's core profit for the fourth quarter would be revised upward by 2% and 7%, respectively. The results will be announced in February. VALE VS TINTO Rio Tinto surpassed Vale as the largest iron ore producer on the planet in 2019. This was due to the collapse of a dam near the?Brazilian town of Brumadinho. The incident killed more than 250 people, and prompted a review of safety in Vale's projects. Vale, however, has increased its iron ore output?in recent years and achieved its highest production since 2018 in 2025. Vale's Chief Executive Gustavo Pimenta said that the firm aims to regain its title as world's biggest iron ore producer. Rio Tinto announced last week that its 2025 iron ore output will be 327.3 million tons, extracted from the flagship Pilbara Mines. Its total output of iron ore, including operations in Canada and Guinea, reached 336.6 millions tons, surpassing Vale by just a few thousand tons. The Brazilian company Vale produced 384.6 millions tons of iron ore in 2018, while Rio Tinto’s Pilbara mines only produced 337.8 millions tons. Vale has confirmed that it expects between 335 and 345 millions tons of iron ore to be produced this year. Vale's quarterly iron ore -production, according to its report, was driven by a strong performance at its Brucutu complex, and a ramp up of its Capanema, and VGR1?projects, located all in Brazil. Vale reported that it will sell 314.4 million tonnes of iron ore by 2025. This is a 2.5% increase from 2024. Shipments rose by 4.5% in the quarter of September-December to?84.9 millions tons. COAL ALSO AT SEVEN YEAR HIGH Vale's copper production surged by nearly 10% to 382,400 tonnes in 2025. This is also the highest output for Vale since 2018. This figure was higher than the previous projection of the company which was 370,000 tons. The company, which plans to "nearly double" its copper production in Brazil by 2035, reported that the output of its main copper mine complex, Salobo, had reached a new record in the fourth-quarter. Vale will also produce 177,200 tonnes of nickel by 2025. This is the highest production since 2022, and represents an increase of almost 11%. The company exceeded its projection of 175,000 tonnes. Reporting by Andre Romani in Sao Paulo and Roberto Samora; editing by Inigo Alexandra and Sonali Paul
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Trump's actions trigger flight from US Dollar
Dollar?was near multi-year lows Wednesday after investors aggressively sold it when?U.S. Donald Trump appeared to dismiss its recent decline while Wall Street?marched to new record highs. The plunge in the dollar has pushed the euro above $1.20, the Australian dollar to a record high of 70 cents, and the gold and commodities prices that are measured in dollars have risen sharply. The ailing yen accelerated away from recent lows before trading settled in the morning hours of the Asia session. When asked by a reporter if the dollar had dropped too much recently, Trump replied "Dollar is doing great." Before Trump's comment, the dollar was at its lowest point in three days since last April, when the tariff blitz began. Markets were also unnerved by Trump’s Greenland diplomacy, as well as signals that the U.S. would be willing to assist Japan in boosting the yen. Steve Englander is the head of Standard Chartered's global G10 currency research in New York. "Often, officials will push back on sudden currency movements but when the president expresses his indifference to the move or even endorses it, this encourages USD sellers. A source said that the New York Federal Reserve had checked the dollar rate against the Japanese yen last week. The market interpreted this as an indication that the U.S. authorities would not mind if Japan pushed the yen up, and might even assist. The dollar has already fallen more than 9% since 2017, the most significant drop since 2017. This is due to Trump's 'attacks' on the Federal Reserve, his spending and his foreign policy. The weaker dollar has helped gold reach a new record of $5.188.95 per ounce over night and U.S. Crude to break through the 200-day moving averge for the first six months at $62.54 per barrel. Bitcoin is still stuck below $90,000. Tokyo's benchmark 10-year treasury yields increased a little to 4.237%. Wall Street saw health insurers plummet as the Trump Administration proposed a smaller increase?in government payments to insurers than expected by investors. In Asia, futures rose by 0.1% and the S&P 500 gained 0.4%. Around regional markets, Australian shares posted small gains. South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.7% to an all-time high, and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.7%. The Nikkei tends to move in the opposite direction to the yen. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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US intelligence raises questions about Venezuelan leader's cooperation
Four people who are familiar with these reports in recent days have expressed doubts that interim Venezuelan president Delcy Rod will cooperate with Trump's administration by cutting off ties to U.S. enemies. Officials of the United States have publicly stated that they want Venezuela's interim president to cut ties with allies such as Iran, China, and Russia. They also want their diplomats and advisors expelled from Venezuela. Rodriguez, who was sworn in by the representatives of these countries at the beginning of this month, has not yet publicly announced such a decision. She was elected president on January 3 after the U.S. captured Venezuelan former President Nicolas Maduro. According to sources who refused to give their names, the U.S. Intelligence reports stated that it is not clear whether she fully supports the U.S. policy in her country. John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, visited Caracas on 15 January to discuss with Rodriguez the future of Venezuela's politics. It was not possible to determine whether the conversations had changed the opinion of intelligence agencies. Washington is trying to limit the influence of its enemies in the Western hemisphere. This includes Venezuela, where Trump wants to exploit Venezuela's vast oil reserves. Rodriguez's decision to cut ties with U.S. competitors would provide more opportunities for U.S. investors in Venezuela's energy industry. Failure to control Rodriguez would undermine Washington's attempts to influence the country's interim leaders from afar, and prevent a greater U.S. militaristic role. Both the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Venezuela's government did not respond when asked for comments. A senior Trump administration official who refused to be named said that U.S. president Donald Trump "continues" to "exercise maximum leverage" on Venezuela's leaders, and "expects the cooperation to continue." Why abandon long-time allies? The CIA had previously determined that officials loyal Maduro were the best positioned for the country to be governed following his removal. This included Rodriguez. Critics of Trump's Venezuela policy have expressed doubts over the wisdom of retaining Maduro loyalists as interim leaders. Two sources said that the concerns about Rodriguez's reliability existed before the U.S. operation. The U.S. directive for Venezuela means that it is abandoning its closest friends outside of the region. Iran has assisted Venezuela in repairing oil refineries, while China has used oil to repay debts. Russia has provided Venezuelan military with weapons, including missiles. Trump also mentioned communist-led Cuba, as another U.S. enemy he wants Venezuelans to abandon. Havana provided intelligence and security support in exchange for Venezuelan oil at a discount. Rodriguez has been taking steps to "stay in Washington's good graces" since Maduro was removed. This includes releasing political prisoner and authorizing the sales of 30 to 50 million barrels oil to the United States. In a Sunday speech, Rodriguez stated that she had "enough of" U.S. interventions. According to two sources, U.S. officials also spoke positively with her in the past few days. Two sources stated that the Trump administration doesn't see any immediate alternatives to working with Rodriguez given its public support for her. A source familiar with Venezuelan policy revealed that U.S. officials have established contacts with senior military officials and security officials to ensure they can change their strategy if necessary. MACHADO IS CONSIDERED AS A LONGER TERM OPTION FOR VENEZUELA Sources said that the'recent intelligence reports' also revealed that Maria Corina Machado, the opposition leader, is currently not able to successfully run the country in part due to her lack of strong ties with the country’s security services and oil sector. Machado and his movement claim to have won the 2024 elections by a large margin. The state, however, backed Maduro. She remains popular among Venezuelans. Last week, Trump told reporters that he wanted Machado to be "involved" with the leadership of the country. He did not provide any details. A person familiar with discussions between the White House, and Machado, said that Machado is liked by the White House. She is also considered to be a long-term candidate for a leadership role in Venezuela. Separate source briefed about Venezuela policy indicated that Machado may be considered as a consultant for the time being, but that no decision has been made. Machado's representatives did not reply to a comment request. Reporting by Erin Banco and Jonathan Landay; Editing and design by Don Durfee, Cynthia Osterman
As U.S. scrutiny increases, scandal tests Peru-China ties
The scandal involving the secret meetings of Peru's acting President with a Chinese Businessman has cast a negative light on Peru's key copper exporter, China's ties at a time when the U.S. Beijing's footprint is being closely examined in the region.
Jose Jeri has denied wrongdoing for the three meetings with Zhihua Yan, a businessman, that he admitted to having between December and January.
The businessman is the owner of Chinese import shops, and he holds a concession to build an energy project. In previous congressional investigations, he was also named as providing alleged logistical support to Chinese companies suspected of corruption.
The controversy coincides with an intensified U.S. campaign to influence the region, aiming to curtail China's strong ties in Latin America.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Trump's administration questioning China’s investment in Peru. It has done so in Mexico and Panama and could use pressure tools to push Peru away from China," Martin Cassinelli said, a trade analyst and Atlantic Council think-tank.
Local media have dubbed the?case "Chifagate". Opposition lawmakers have filed impeachment proceedings to remove Jeri. He is responsible for completing the term of the current government until July. Jeri has been the subject of a preliminary investigation by the public prosecutor for alleged influence-peddling. He has denied this.
On April 12, Peruvians are going to the polls in order to elect a president. Peru has had seven presidents in the last year, but has still enjoyed one of the highest growth rates in Latin America. This is thanks to mining income.
Analysts said that Washington's recent capture and detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro - an ally?of China?and Russia?- sent a signal that it?aims to exclude extraregional powers from Western Hemisphere. This stance places additional pressures on governments such as Peru's, who are navigating internal crises.
Jhon Valldiglesias, of the Center for Asian Studies of Peru's National University of San Marcos, said that criticizing a Chinese businessman was, in fact, a criticism of China.
He added: "It definitely casts an shadow over all relationships with China."
It won't be simple to break Peru's commercial ties with China. Signed in 2009, a free trade agreement propelled China overtaking the U.S. in 2015 as Peru's leading trading partner.
Government data shows that China accounted for 33% percent of Peruvian trade through November of last year.
China owns one of Peru's biggest copper mines, and it buys around 70% of its output. Chinese companies own Peru's biggest power generators and began operating Chancay Megaport in late 2024, opening a direct trade route between South America and Asia.
Juan Carlos Capunay said that the economic relations between Peru and China are "perhaps the best organized administratively and political" in recent times.
He said that the U.S. would find it difficult to demolish or weaken the free trade agreement with China.
The Chifagate affair has brought to light some of the shadier aspects of this relationship.
Cassinelli stated that "if Peruvians who have up to now viewed Chinese investment projects favorably, begin to doubt the credibility of those investments, new Chinese government contracts and investment will be less welcomed by a society that is sensitive to allegations about corruption and unfair favoritism of foreign companies."
The Chinese embassy in Peru has not responded to our request for a comment.
Datum Internacional, a polling firm, says that Jeri's support is eroding. Her approval rating has fallen from 51% to 40% since the scandal broke.
According to an Ipsos survey conducted over the weekend, 78% of Peruvians believe that Jeri's meeting with the businessman was corrupt. Reporting by Marco Aquino; additional reporting by Cassandra Garrison, editing by Christian Plumb and Alistair Bell.
(source: Reuters)