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Venezuela seeks to restore diplomatic relations with the US
Venezuelan officials have 'begun to explore the potential of expanding diplomatic ties with the United States,' with the?U.S. State Department officials are traveling to Caracas, the State Department said in a Friday statement. Separately, the State Department said that?U.S. Officials were evaluating a "potential resumption of operations" in the South American nation. Washington and Caracas have signaled their desire for cooperation following last week's dramatic U.S. military operation which resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Delcy Rodriguez, his vice president, took over as interim leader. The Venezuelan government announced in a press release that it had decided to begin an exploratory diplomatic procedure with the U.S. Government, "with the aim of reestablishing diplomatic missions in both nations." It?said that a Venezuelan delegation would?also be sent over to the U.S. for assessments. On Friday morning, U.S. President Donald Trump had said that the release of political prisoner in Venezuela was a "sign of seeking peace" and he canceled an attack plan for a second wave.
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Tusk: Poland is worried about tensions within NATO over Greenland
Poland's Prime Minister is concerned about the strain that the United States' threats to 'take over Greenland' is putting on NATO. He said this on Friday. Warsaw, as a loyal ally, should be honest about its concerns with Washington. Poland sees the United States and NATO in a 'critical role in its security, in light of a 'increasingly assertive Russia. Policymakers in Warsaw are concerned that divisions in the alliance might embolden Moscow. The NATO alliance would be shocked if the U.S. took Greenland away from Denmark, a long-time ally. It would also deepen the divide that exists between Trump and European leaders. Tusk said at a press briefing that he was "very concerned" about the Greenland problem, as well as the events in the United States and all the things that are?building up such ideological and politic tensions within NATO and even the United States themselves. "But we are allies and friends, and Poland is a particularly loyal ally of the United States. I also believe that in such a situation, one should not be on their knees, but rather, express what they think. You should be honest with your friends about what is right and wrong. (Reporting and editing by Alex Richardson, Barbara Erling, Alan Charlish and Pawel Florkiewicz)
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Stellantis Europe's chief is concerned about a'misalignment of EU regulations'
Stellantis' head of Europe stated on Friday that the size and shape any future investments by the company in Europe will depend on "decisions made on auto industry regulations". He expressed concern over what has been announced thus far. After pressure from the auto industry in the region, the EU Commission proposed last month to lift the ban on combustion engine cars starting 2035. This is the biggest retreat by the bloc from its green policies over the past few years. Stellantis found the new package inadequate and Antonio Filosa, CEO of Stellantis, warned that it would put manufacturers' investments at risk in the region. In his first press conference after taking over the position in October, Stellantis Europe's?head Emanuele Cappellano stated on Friday, at the Brussels auto show: "The decisions made by the European Union?will have an impact on visibility and on the dominant technologies needed." Cappellano expressed concern about "misalignment", between EU regulation, automakers?needs and customers' demand. "We must be honest about this." "What has been announced so far has failed to this extent," said he on Friday. He added that the industry as well as customers are looking for short-term solutions. The problem isn't 10 years away. "The problem is not 10 years from now. It's today, and customers need something different," he said. He said that the EU should protect European auto industry and fill some gaps in comparison to Chinese competitors, such as in batteries and semiconductors. When asked about the future of Stellantis' sprawling 14-brand portfolio, which many believe is too difficult to manage due to overlap between models, Cappellano referred to the new business plan of the group. CEO Filosa will present this in the second quarter. He said: "We will work on a strategy plan, but my top priority is ensuring that the CEOs of (Stellantis') brands have the opportunity to strengthen their brand attributes."
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Venezuela bondholders group seeks authorisation for debt restructuring discussions
On Friday, a key group of Venezuelan bonds holders said that they were prepared to begin debt restructuring talks with the country as soon as 'authorisation' was granted. Venezuela's defaulted government bonds surged in value this week, after the U.S. seized President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. This fueled hopes that one of the largest sovereign debt restructurings could get underway. The current U.S. sanctions prevent engagement with Venezuelan officials without a special license or waiver. In a press release, the "Venezuela?Creditor?Committee" said that it was ready to begin a negotiated debt restructuring process when authorized. The group includes GMO, Greylock Capital Fidelity T. Rowe Price Mangart Capital Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Venezuela's government, and the state oil firm PDVSA, have defaulted in bonds worth around $60 billion. However, Total external debt Analysts estimate that the total amount of PDVSA obligations and bilateral loans, as well as arbitration awards, is between $150 billion and $170 billion. This depends on how interest accrued and court judgments are counted. The Creditor Committee said: "The VCC acknowledges that the restoration access to international private capital will be crucial to Venezuela's economic and social recovery, including the oil sector." (Reporting and editing by Karin Strohecker, Rodrigo Campos and Marc Jones)
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The Portuguese government supports Savannah's lithium mining project with a $128 million grant
Savannah Resources, listed on the London Stock Exchange, announced that it was awarded a 110 million-euro grant ($128 millions) by?the Portuguese Government for its lithium mine in northern Portugal. This is a sign of official support for a hotly contested project. Around 82 million euro of the non-reimbursable grants will fund the initial capital expenses of the project, in Portugal's Barroso Region. The remainder of the grant is linked to performance milestones. The company stated that the estimated reserves of the Barroso deposit spodumene, a lithium-bearing mineral, are more than 39 million metric tonnes, making it Europe's largest deposit. The success of Savannah's project in Portugal will be a test of Europe's capability to reduce its dependency on imports from China and other countries for materials such as lithium, which are essential to the shift to clean energy. Savannah, however, has met with strong opposition by local residents and the environmentalists since Barroso is a World Heritage Site for Agriculture. Chief Executive Emanuel Proenca said that the grant was another "highly significant milestone" for Savannah, and "underscores the Portuguese state’s significant support for the project's completion", mirroring other governments' efforts to support strategic projects in?Europe. The Portuguese government's financial contribution will be a "significant" contribution to the project capex, as the production is aimed at 2028. According to Portugal's Official Gazette, Secretary of State for Economy Joao Fereira approved the grant on 7 January, qualifying it as an incentive "for major investments in carbon neutral and strategic net zero transition sectors."
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Stocks rise ahead of US jobs report and tariff ruling
Global stocks rose on Friday, ahead of an important U.S. employment report. Investors also awaited the Supreme Court's ruling on whether President Donald Trump’s tariffs were legal. These tariffs shocked markets last year. Geopolitical tensions around the world have pushed up oil prices and defence stocks. They will continue to be on traders' minds when they consider developments in Venezuela and Greenland. The U.S. Supreme Court's possible ruling on tariffs will dominate the conversation on Friday. The reduction of tariffs may impact U.S. revenue, driving Treasury yields up and causing new waves in volatility. Kyle Rodda said that the ruling is a "real wildcard" and any action to lower U.S. Tariffs will also boost the broader market sentiment. Investors believe that stocks will rise if the court reverses existing tariffs. This is especially true for companies who had to absorb large import costs. He added that "a constraint could be the fact that, even if tariffs were ruled illegal, the Trump administration is unlikely to give in and look for other ways to maintain levies." Traders are still hesitant to bet on market events. Around midday, the Stoxx 600 index in Europe was up by 0.6%. The major regional indices are in the positive zone, with the French CAC40 adding 0.9% on the day and the German DAX rising 0.5%. S&P futures EScv1 rose?0.1%. This suggests a modest increase at the opening later. The S&P500.SPX closed flat on Thursday. However, an aerospace and defense index reached a record high. European defence shares also hit a new all-time high. US JOBS REPORT DECK The December U.S. Jobs Report will also be a key focus point, following a series of data releases on the labour market earlier in this week. On the positive side, there's no sign of a recession in this labour market. That's a good thing. There is also no indication of a strong acceleration on the subdued end. Samy Chaar is chief economist at Lombard Odier. He said that this was consistent with an economy growing moderately. There's no sign of overheating or growth above potential. The JOLTS report on hirings and ADP's private sector payrolls released earlier this week showed that employment in the largest economy in the world is slowing down. We want to confirm today the signals we received yesterday from JOLTs, ADP and the claims we got yesterday. "We don't want an upward surprise in the unemployment rate, or job creation," Chaar stated. Right now, the markets expect two rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in this year. This expectation could be reduced if the monthly employment report is strong. A survey by economists estimates that nonfarm payrolls increased by 60,000 jobs last month, after recovering by 64,000 jobs in November. In October, the economy lost 105,000 positions, which is the biggest drop in almost five years. Most of these were federal employees who took deferred-buyouts. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes remained at 4,187%, after increasing 4.5 basis points in the previous day. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. against six other currencies) hovered at a month-high. Scott?Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary said that he expects Trump to make an announcement soon about who will replace Jerome Powell when the Fed chairman's term expires in?May. Markets are expecting Trump to appoint someone dovish. The oil prices rose on Friday to their highest weekly level since late October. Investors were concerned about the situation in Venezuela, and also worried about supply from Russia, Iraq and Iran. In a post on social media on Friday, Trump announced that he had cancelled the previously anticipated second wave of attacks against Venezuela due to its cooperation. Two sources said that foreign embassies are preparing for a visit next week by representatives of American and European oil companies. Brent futures The price of crude oil in the United States rose by 0.9%, to $62.54 per barrel. However, they are still on track for a gain of nearly 3% over the past week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude The price of a barrel was also up by 0.9%, at $58,29. Reporting by Sophie Kiderlin, London. Ankur Banerjee contributed additional reporting from Singapore. Editing was done by Amanda Cooper and Susan Fenton.
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Brazil's seed collectors fight Amazon deforestation
Restoration projects in Brazil have increased 160% since 2020 Wildfire-fueled deforestation breaks records Restoring soil with seed is a cost-effective alternative By Andre Cabette Fabio Oliveira, a seed collector from Mato Grosso is among the?more that 700 members of the Xingu Seeds Network who are working to recover forests and savannas in this major agricultural state. After the Brazilian government committed to restore 12,000,000 hectares of natural areas (or 30,000,000 acres) by 2030, as part of its climate goals in the 2015 Paris Agreement, forest restoration is now taking hold. This is thanks to the support of civil society, businesses, and increased funding. Data from the World Resources Institute revealed that 2024 will be the worst year ever for the global loss of tropical forests. Brazil accounted for 42%, after having lost 2.82 million acres, mainly due to fires. In the Amazon, wildfires are rarely spontaneous. Most of them are started by land grabbers and farmers. "One day, I went looking for my seeds and, when I arrived, I was shocked to see that there wasn't a single branch. Oliveira said that everything had been ripped apart while she was working in her garden in Nova Xavantina, a city in central Brazil. "We feel so sad because we don't know what you are going to do about it." She said this as she placed the seeds into a machine and pulled a lever in order to break their shells. Alternative to Seed Lining The Xingu Seeds Network is a group of mostly women who come from rural areas, towns, cities and large Indigenous territories. They fight against biodiversity and tree losses in areas where soybean and grain fields and cattle pastures are expanding. In 2007, the network of collectors was formed in response to a request from Indigenous communities of the Xingu River Basin to farmers to save the drying streams in the area. It promotes an alternative method to seedlings called "muvuca" which involves sowing native seeds to give plants that are best adapted to local conditions a chance to flourish. Muvuca, which does not require irrigation, is cheaper than seedlings. Xingu Seeds Network, a group of 27 seed-collecting organizations, has helped to replant 10,800 hectares in forests and savannahs. These initiatives, however, are far from being able to stop the rapid deforestation of the Amazon rainforest and other Brazilian ecosystems. Bruna 'Dayanna Ferreira is the director of Xingu Seeds Network. She said, "In one month my neighbor alone?cutdown what we had restored over ten years." CLIMATE CHANGE BUFFER By restoring natural areas, you can capture carbon and release water vapor, which helps to form clouds, which reflect sunlight and produce rain. Scientists have stated that this buffers global warming effects and prevents rainforests drying out and reaching tipping point, after which they could become savannah like ecosystems. Brazil's restoration of forest, savannahs, and other ecosystems by seedlings or seeds has grown by 160% since 2021. The Brazilian Restoration Observatory, a non-profit organization, reported in December that the area is currently just 204,000 acres, with 19% of it in the Amazon. According to the observatory, areas undergoing natural regeneration - when nature regenerates without human interference - are much larger, totaling more than 19 million hectares. Tropical forests require an average of twenty years to recover 80% of their carbon before they were cleared. In a study from 2021, recovering Amazon?forests are destroyed on average after eight years of regrowth. In November, the government released its National Native Vegetation Recovery Plan, which identified 3.5 millions hectares in forests, savannahs, and other ecosystems that are regrowing on land protected by environmental laws, where they stand a better chance of survival. Thiago Silva, the forest director of the Environment Ministry, said: "Most restoration occurs through secondary forests (naturally regrowing). We need to monitor and protect these areas." FOREST INCENTIVES Ferreira said that, with human-assisted regeneration still gaining momentum, the amount seeds collected by members of the Xingu Seeds Network exceeds the demand for planting. She said that "our capacity to collect seed is much larger than the demand we receive, and this rule is among all seed-collecting network in Brazil." Belote explained that even though natural regrowth can be the fastest way to achieve large-scale recovery on a large scale, promoting restoration through a market could help divert incentives from deforestation. He said: "We must think of large-scale reforestation as a way to earn money... in order to show that it is competitive with deforestation." Since last year, the government has allocated 274 million reais (50 million dollars) to restore 7,980 acres of Indigenous territory and public land that was allotted to smallholder farmers. A part of the investment will be used to plant trees to produce food. This includes acai berries, cocoa and acai berries, both native to Amazon. According to Forests & Finance, this funding pales in contrast to the $207 billion in publicly subsidized credits to agricultural production in Brazil that has driven forest loss over the past decade. On the way to Nova Xavantina, there are towering silos as well as an air-conditioned storage facility that can hold up to 450,000 bags for soybean planting. This is a powerful symbol of the monoculture dominance in the region. The nascent market for restoration is already changing the lives of those who work in it. Oliveira said that her family has built three small homes and bought a car and motorcycle with the money she earned from collecting seeds. She was a housekeeper prior to joining Xingu Seeds Network. Her depression has been helped by her work in the natural world.
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Happy new world order!
Anna Szymanski What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. From the Editor Hello Morning Bid readers! Welcome to the new year and what an eventful week! Donald Trump's renewed talk about "acquiring" Greenland, possibly through payments to its citizens, has also dominated headlines. This geopolitical drama has had limited market impact so far. The S&P 500 ended Thursday essentially flat after only modest movement this week. Yesterday, however, the U.S. Aerospace and Defence Index, as well as European defence shares, reached a new high. When the news of the U.S.-led strike in Caracas broke on Saturday, investors' attention was focused on energy markets. Venezuela is the home of the largest oil reserves in the world, 300 billion barrels. This represents around one fifth of the total global supply. Brent closed below $60 per barrel on Wednesday, as crude prices fell earlier in the week. This was due to expectations that additional oil would be added to a market already oversupplied. Prices have recovered since then. U.S. action in the Caribbean is likely to benefit oil refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast that were built decades earlier to process heavy crude, the type Venezuela exports. Caracas, in fact, has agreed to export as much as $2 billion of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. This will largely come at the expense China, which became the primary importer of Venezuelan petroleum after Trump imposed sanctions against the country's oil industry in 2019. It is possible to increase Venezuelan oil production, but it could take many years and cost billions. Even though President Trump claimed that U.S. energy companies would have the chance to revive Venezuela's defunct oil industry it is an offer they might want to reject. There are likely to be many reasons behind America's action in Caracas. However, a little-discussed reason could be that the White House is concerned about the declining global prominence of "the petrodollar", a tool which has helped the U.S. maintain dominance in global finance for years. Trump's actions and words this week may have investors taking more seriously the White House national security strategy that was released last year. This week, the markets received some of the most recent "clean" U.S. employment data since the government shutdown in the fall. However, the picture painted was far from clear. JOLTS showed that U.S. employment fell to a 14 month low in November, while hiring was sluggish. ADP's National Employment Report noted that private employment rose by 41,000 last month, after falling by 29,000 jobs in November. Friday, the non-farm payrolls for December will provide the clearest picture of the U.S. labour market. The December non-farm payrolls are expected to show that the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.5%, down from 4.6%. Federal Reserve is unlikely to be influenced by these data, but the policymaking body will still consider the future direction of interest rates. The Supreme Court's ruling today on the legality President Donald Trump’s global tariffs could be the most important news for the markets on Friday. Metals news today revealed that Rio Tinto and Glencore are reportedly in talks to merge. This could result in the world's biggest mining company, with a combined value of over $207 billion. Open Interest has more news on commodities and markets. Open Interest has more commodities and markets news. Find out why China is in a strange competition with the U.S. over spare copper, or what could spoil Wall Street's celebration in 2026. Check out the reading, listening, and watching suggestions from the ROI Team as we enter the weekend. Please contact me at This weekend we read... JAMIE MCGEEVER. China, Russia, Iran or any of 60 conflicts raging across the globe (the most since World War II) will not be the biggest source of instability in the world. The United States will be responsible." GAVIN Maguire, ROI - Global Energy Transition columnist: Michael Cembalest's incisive study of Venezuela's oil and its ability to supplement US refinery capacity in heavy and medium crude grades is a fascinating read. Andy HOME, ROI Metals columnist: The analysis by Prima Sidera of European strategic autonomy in defense sectors is timely given Trump's demand for European countries to spend more. RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. Daniel Yergin’s The Prize provides a definitive history of the oil business. This week I pulled the classic from my shelf to remind myself of how oil was the driving force behind the foreign policies of the world's major powers during the 20th century. Check out the book's YouTube video for more great visuals. We are listening to... ANNA SZYMANSKI. ROI Editor-in Charge: Listen to Ron Bousso, ROI's Director of Research and Development, discuss the impact of U.S. action in Venezuela on?energy markets. We're watching... JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Finance columnist: New Yorker writer Jonathan Blitzer appeared on the Ezra Klein Podcast to discuss the regional implications and global impact of U.S. president Donald Trump's deposition of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter . ROI can be found on the Website You can also follow us on You can find us on LinkedIn. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and a commitment to independence, integrity, and neutrality. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter Website You can find us on LinkedIn.
Market reaction to Rio Tinto’s purchase talks with Glencore
The companies have confirmed that they are in the early stages of talks with Rio Tinto to purchase Glencore. This could result in the creation of the largest mining company in the world, valued at nearly $207 billion.
Investor and analyst reactions to the latest news.
WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT PORTFOLIO MANAGER JOHN AYOUB, WHOSE FIRM HAS SHARES IN RIO TINTO:
"We are eagerly awaiting more details and comments from both companies, but right now, in our opinion, no premium can be paid at all. Rio is undoubtedly the better company and we should be compensated by using synergies, not just paying for them.
"Coal must be divested in order to gain the support of Australian shareholders." Rio's story has been relatively straightforward, with iron ore and copper being the main players. Aluminium, lithium, and aluminium were added later. Addition of a few other players dilutes the narrative and you'd need to have significant synergies in order to counteract that dilution.
ARGO INVESTMENTS SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER ANDY FORSTER WHOSE FIRM HAS SHARES OF RIO TINTO.
It makes sense, if the terms are fair for both. The culture of both companies is the biggest question. Glencore has a strong trading background and is very results-oriented. Some of these aspects could be beneficial to Rio.
"I hope Rio remains disciplined, but it is sensible to consider deals that can benefit both parties."
ALLAN GRAY'S TIM HILLIER HOLDS SHARES IN RIO TINTO.
There is a chance that Rio could overpay. The price is important, but if the transaction involves a large premium then there's a chance that shareholders could lose some value.
Rio has a pipeline of high-growth internal projects. It is not clear why the company needs to look outside for projects.
RBC ANALYST KANAAN PEKER
"Consensus says they'll get rid of coal. Rio's shareholders in Europe, especially, find it impossible to accept a return of coal.
"I don't believe they should do anything because I think BHP is a better company in terms of growth than Rio/Glencore merged together."
JEFFERIES METAL AND MINING ANATOMISTS:
The structure of a Rio Glencore merger would be complicated. The companies' iron ore and coking coal businesses could be merged into an Australian listed entity. This entity would likely trade with a high valuation if it distributed its strong cash flows through the cycle to Aussie investors via franked?dividends. Base metals business could be listed separately and trade at a higher price than most other miners because of the mix of commodities, asset quality and company growth. This scenario would have a number of tax implications, and be a difficult one to structure.
"Another possible scenario is that Glencore separates coal and sells itself in an all-shares deal to Rio at a significant premium (we wouldn't expect Glencore to be taken out of a no-premium merger). This would dilute Chinalco’s stake in Rio, and could allow Rio to do a large-scale share buyback in the future (similar to BHP's proposal when it attempted to acquire Rio back in 2007/08). This full merger scenario could have substantial synergies in marketing." Reporting by Scott Murdoch and Melanie Burton, both in Sydney; editing by Jamie Freed
(source: Reuters)