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Gold rises above $3,900 for the first time due to safe-haven demand
Gold prices reached an all-time record high on Monday. They soared above the $3,900 per ounce level as investors sought out safe-haven gold amid the U.S. shutdown, economic uncertainty and expectations of future Federal Reserve rate reductions. As of 0730 GMT spot gold rose 1.2% to $3,932.40 an ounce after reaching $3,944 in the earlier session. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.2%, to $3.956.50. A senior White House official stated on Sunday that Washington would begin mass layoffs if U.S. president Donald Trump determines that negotiations with Congress Democrats to end the partial government shutdown "absolutely are going nowhere". The U.S. shutdown could be prolonged, which would have a negative effect on the U.S. economy. Independent analyst Ross Norman said that there is a general sense of caution among financial markets. The gold price has increased by nearly 50% this year. This is due to strong central bank purchases, an increase in demand for exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed with gold, a lower dollar, and the growing interest of retail investors looking to hedge against rising geopolitical and trade tensions. Norman added that the low participation in this rally and its primary drivers, central banks and investors with a longer-term perspective, rather than speculative purchasers, could indicate that any pullback may be milder than anticipated. Stephen Miran, the Fed Governor, called for a rate cut aggressively again on Friday. He cited the economic impact of Trump's policies. Various data, both from public and private sources, indicate that the U.S. labour market is weakening due to the shutdown of the federal government. Investors now expect a 25 basis-point reduction at the Fed's meeting in this month. An additional 25 bp is expected in December. UBS stated in a report that they expect gold to reach $4200/oz at the end of the year. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. In March, spot gold prices broke through the $3,000 per ounce barrier for the first. Many brokerages are now bullish about the rally. Silver spot rose 1.5% to reach its highest price in over 14 years. Palladium rose 1.2% to 1,276.10 and platinum gained 0.7% to $1616.
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Dollar firms as copper falls from 16-month high
The copper price fell on Monday, after reaching a 16-month high in the previous session. A stronger dollar countered support from supply concerns from Chile, the top producer and Indonesia as a major supplier. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange dropped 0.4%, to $10,666.50 a metric ton, as of 0726 GMT. It had previously reached its highest level since May 2024 earlier in the day. The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.4%, reaching a record high of more than a week against its competitors. A stronger dollar makes greenback-denominated assets more expensive for holders of other currencies. Freeport Miner said that five workers who had been missing following a mudslide disaster at the Grasberg Copper and Gold Mine in Indonesia were found dead on Sunday. Grasberg, the second largest copper mine in the world, accounts for 3% global concentrate production. Analysts have estimated that the disruption will result in a loss of 591,00 tons of copper production between September 2025 to 2026. This has prompted Goldman Sachs and Citi to increase their price predictions. Prices soared to $10,700/t, continuing the bullish trend in copper. Investors remained worried about supply issues in Chile and Indonesia," ANZ stated. The growth of refined copper production is being affected by the mine supply issues, as well as China's antiinvolution drive. After an accident on July 31, the production of Chile fell by 9.9% in August compared to last year. Other London metals include aluminium, which fell by 0.3% to 2,701.50 per ton. Nickel also declined, falling 0.2% to $16,395. Lead fell by 0.5% to $2,000, while tin dropped 2% to $35,715; and zinc, which lost 0.6% to 3,017. "Aluminium also exceeded the $2,700/t marker last week. This was supported both by supply concerns and a strong demand, as operating rates improved," ANZ stated. Golden Week, which runs from October 1 through October 8, is a time when Chinese markets will be closed. Click here to see the latest news in metals, and other topics. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Jacob-Phillips, Subhranshu Shu, and Brijesh Pattel, Bengaluru)
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Hotel prices cause countries to skip COP30 Climate Summit
Hundreds of dollars per night are being charged by hotels due to a lack of rooms at the COP30 Climate Summit in Brazil next month. The small island states that are on the frontline for rising sea levels will have to reduce the size of their delegations to Belem. Two European nations also said they would consider not attending. The organisers of COP30 are racing to turn love motels, churches and cruise ships into accommodation for the 45,000 expected delegates. Brazil held the climate talks in Belem because it has an average of 18,000 hotel rooms available. It hoped that its location at the edge the Amazon rainforest, would draw attention to the threats climate change poses to the ecosystem and its role as a sink for climate warming emissions. LATVIA SAYS THAT ROOMS ARE EXPENSIVE Latvia’s climate minister said that the country had asked if their negotiators can dial in via video call. Melnis stated, "We've already decided that it is too expensive for us." It's the very first time that it is so expensive. "We have a duty to the budget of our country." Lithuania, a second country in eastern Europe, has also indicated that it will not be staying after receiving quotes for prices exceeding $500 per night per person. A Lithuanian energy minister spokesperson, who covers climate issues, stated that the quality and legitimacy of negotiations would be affected if governments were unable to attend due to the cost. According to a spokesperson for Brazil's COP30 Presidency, the decision is up to each country. DELEGATIONS FIND IT HARD TO PAY FOR HOTELS AT COP30 The website displayed rates ranging from $360 per night to $4,400 per night, just days after Brazil launched a booking platform at the beginning of August. The platform indicated that prices this week began at $150 per day. The host country rejected calls to move the summit, saying it would provide 15 hotel rooms at a price of less than $220 per night for each delegation from a developing country and below $600 per delegation from a wealthy nation. The United Nations also increased their subsidy for low-income countries to attend. According to Brazil's Presidency of COP30, less than six weeks before COP30, there are still 81 countries in negotiations about hotel rooms, while 87 have already reserved accommodations. Evans Njewa is the chair of the Least Developed Countries Group, which represents the poorest countries in the U.N. Climate Talks. He said that the group was still assessing the attendance plans. Njewa said: "We receive a large volume of concerns... and many requests for assistance." "Unfortunately, our capacity is restricted, which could affect the size and composition of delegations." CLIMATE ACTION IS UNDER THREAT The COP Summit this year takes place as President Donald Trump of the United States has tried to shift America's focus away from climate change and Europe's priorities have changed due to its struggling economies. Ilana Seid said that the lack of affordable housing placed her members at "a severe disadvantage". The small island states have taken advantage of previous COPs in order to get more funding for climate change adaptation. Seid stated that smaller delegations would not allow island nations to "participate effectively in the negotiations that decide our future" because they lack the expertise required.
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Nikkei, Bitcoin, and gold soar to new highs on the back of political waves
Sanae Takaichi, the fiscal and monetary dove who was recently elected leader of the ruling Party, has now become Japan's first woman prime minister. Gold reached a new record high of almost $4,000 on Sunday. The leading cryptocurrency, bitcoin, also rose to its lifetime high. Investors are increasingly looking to alternative assets to store value, as the U.S. shutdown has strained nerves. The Nikkei rose above 48,000. This was the first time in history that Takaichi had beaten the moderate Shinjiro. Koizumi at the leadership vote of the Liberal Democratic Party on Saturday. This stoked expectations for fiscal stimulus. The yen fell as much as 2.2%, surpassing 150 dollars for the first since August 1. It also dropped as much as 1.8%, reaching a new low of 176.25 against the euro. Concerns about Japan's finances have sent the yields on 30-year government bond to an all-time record. The yields of short-dated Japanese government bonds fell to their lowest level in two weeks as traders reduced bets about when the Bank of Japan would resume raising interest rates. The implied odds that the BOJ will raise interest rates by the end of this year have fallen to 41%, down from 68% last Friday. Takaichi criticised the BOJ for raising rates a year ago as "stupid". Her recent remarks have been more restrained. She has only said that central bank policies should align with government. In a recent research report, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities economists stated that "we believe that concerns among investors that the new administration may pursue extreme fiscal expansion" or exert political pressure against the BOJ have been overblown." They noted that Takaichi’s stance appears "closely aligned" with BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda’s "cautious" approach to policy normalization. The majority of other major stock markets in the region, such as mainland China, South Korea, and Taiwan, were closed on holidays. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.7% ahead of Tuesday's holiday. Australia's benchmark index fell 0.1% despite the fact that trading was thinned out by holidays across several states, including New South Wales. U.S. S&P futures were 0.3% higher after the cash index reached a new record high on Saturday. The STOXX50 futures for Europe were flat with the stock market at record levels. The U.S. Dollar gained ground against European currencies. It used its momentum against the Japanese yen in order to recover from last week's 0.5% drop against a basket major counterparts. The euro fell 0.26%, to $1.1714. Sterling slipped 0.22%, to $1.3440. Last time gold was traded, it was around $3,927. It had risen as much as 1.5% to a new record, just above $3.944. Bitcoin was trading at around $123,600 after its recent jump from $125,653.32 to Sunday. Geoffrey Kendrick is the head of Standard Chartered Bank's digital assets research. This year, bitcoin traded with "U.S. "This year, bitcoin has traded with 'U.S. Kendrick said, "I think bitcoin will continue to rise during the shutdown" and that it will reach $135,000 soon. The oil prices increased after OPEC+ announced that it would increase its production by 137,000 barrels a day (bpd), the same modest increase from October. This announcement came amid persistent fears of a looming glut in supply. Sources said that Russia wanted to increase output by 137,000 bpd in order to avoid price pressure, but Saudi Arabia preferred to double, triple, or even quadruple this figure to gain market share faster. Brent crude futures rose 1.3% to $65.36 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was at $61.69 a barrel. Both crudes saw a 1.3% increase.
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FT reports that Ardian has bought Irish utility Energia for $2.9 billion in a bet on AI boom.
The Financial Times reported that Ardian, a French investment company, is acquiring Energia Group, one of Ireland's biggest energy utilities. This deal values the company at over 2.5 billion euros (2.93 billion dollars). Ardian believes it has found a power provider who can serve the booming artificial intelligence industry. The FT reported that Ardian had agreed to purchase Energia Group, an infrastructure investment company, from I Squared Capital. It cited people who were familiar with the situation. I Squared Capital acquired the company for 1 billion euro in 2016. Ardian, Energia, and I-Squared didn't immediately respond to requests for comments outside of regular business hours. They couldn't immediately verify the FT Report. The deal reflects the growing interest of investors in data centers to support the rapidly expanding market for AI and their adoption around the world. Global Infrastructure Partners, a BlackRock company, is close to completing a deal that would value Aligned Data Centers at $40 billion. Two people who are familiar with the situation told us last week. Juan Angoitia, Ardian's cohead of infrastructure, said that Energia was the first deal Ardian had made in Ireland. He added that Energia has "ambitious plans for growth, driven by capital projects secured and increased energy demand." William Briggs, Ardian's managing directors said in an article that "Energia was a pioneering model of how to unlock the growth potential of data centres by using a novel co-development approach with renewables". According to its website, Energia has onshore wind farms that have a 358 mega watt capacity, provides gas and electricity for over 898,000 customers, and employs 1117 people.
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Indonesia transfers assets to a state-owned tin mining company as crackdown intensifies
Indonesia's Attorney General handed over heavy equipment and smelters seized as part of a corruption investigation to state-owned tin mining company PT Timah on Monday, while President Prabowo urged the authorities to stop illegal tin mining and smuggling. The resource-rich nation is stepping up its efforts to improve the governance of natural resource exploitation. This includes measures such as a crackdown on illegal mining. Prabowo visited the tin hub Bangka Island in order to see the transfer of assets confiscated following a number tin executives' convictions for colluding with illegal mining. Attorney General said that their actions led to state losses of about 300 trillion Rupiah (18.09 billion dollars), including environmental damage. The visit was made after Prabowo announced that he would close about 1,000 illegal mines of tin on the islands, and intensify the crackdown on tin-smugglers. Tin prices reached a six-month high last week. Prabowo, on Monday, urged the military and other authorities to continue efforts to combat illegal activities. After the handover, Prabowo said to reporters: "We will eradicate smuggling and illegal mining. We will eradicate those who break the law. Data from the Attorney General's Office showed that among the assets transferred to Timah, a state-owned tin mining company, were six smelters and about 680 metric tonnes of refined tin, as well as 108 heavy equipment units. Data showed that the assets could generate an annual revenue of 4.6 trillion Rupiah when operated. The assets on display included stacks of tin ingots, and dozens excavators. $1 = 16,580.0000 Rupiah (Reporting and writing by Fransiska Naangoy, Editing by Martin Petty & Jamie Freed).
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RPT-Trump administration eyes stake in company developing Greenland Rare Earths Mine
Four people with knowledge of the talks said that Trump administration officials had discussed acquiring a stake in Critical Metals Corp. This would give Washington an interest in the biggest rare earths project on Greenland, a territory in the Arctic that Donald Trump suggested purchasing. The deal, if finalized, would be the latest political twist in the Tanbreez rare-earths deposit. Former President Joe Biden successfully lobbyed for it to be sold to New York based Critical Metals at a much lower price than the Chinese firm offered. Washington recently acquired stakes in Lithium American and MP Materials. This shows Trump's desire to see the U.S. benefit from the growing production of minerals that are used throughout the global economy. Washington's interest to own a stake in Critical Metals has not been previously reported. Four sources declined to give their names, citing that the negotiations were sensitive. In response to a comment request, a senior Trump Administration official said: "Hundreds of businesses are approaching us to try to get the government to invest in their crucial minerals projects." "There is nothing at all close to this company right now." Critical Metals has not responded to multiple requests for comments via phone and email. Greenland is part of Denmark, but it has a semi-autonomous status. The Danish Embassy in Washington didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Rare earths are used in high-tech industries, from electric cars to missile systems. They have strong magnetic properties. Western countries are clamoring for new supplies to reduce their dependency on China, which controls the extraction and processing of rare earths. Critical Metals applied for a grant of $50 million through the Defense Production Act in June. The Defense Production Act is a Cold War legislation that aims to boost production of goods and services for national security. Three sources confirmed that the administration began discussions with the company in the last six-weeks about converting the grant to an equity stake. The same sources stated that if the deal is completed, a $50m conversion would represent a roughly 8.0% stake in the company. However, negotiations are still ongoing and the final stake size could be larger or the deal could fall through. Reports in August stated that administration officials were considering reallocating $2 billion of the CHIPS Act for funding critical mineral projects. The CHIPS and Science Act was signed by President Joe Biden into law in 2022. Its goal is to divert chip production from Asia. Two sources reported that the recent negotiations by the Administration for a 5% share in Lithium Americas delayed the Critical Metals Investment discussions. Two sources stated that the U.S. shutdown will not affect negotiations because the high-level government employees involved in the talks are considered essential workers. One source said that part of the discussion revolves around how warrants will be issued in order to give Washington its stake. Warrants allow their holders to purchase stock at a predetermined price. According to two sources, the equity stake is separate from a $120,000,000 loan that the U.S. Export-Import Bank will consider to assist Tanbreez in developing its product. A spokesperson for EXIM was not available to comment immediately. GREENLANDS APPEAL Washington's economic interests in Greenland predated Trump's interest. Biden officials visited Greenland’s capital Nuuk in November last year to try and woo more private investment into the island’s mining sector. Trump sent JD Vance, Vice President of the United States, to Greenland in March. In northern Greenland, the U.S. Air Force has one of its largest bases. Tanbreez's commercialization is estimated to cost $290 Million, according to the company. The EXIM loan will be used to fund the technical work to get the mine up and running by 2026. The mine will produce 85,000 tons of rare earths per year once it is fully operational. Site also contains tantalum and gallium, both of which China restricted exports last year. Greenland’s mining industry has grown slowly over the past few years due to a lack of investor interest, bureaucratic issues and environmental concerns. At the moment, there are only two small mining operations. Tanbreez's remote and cold location is seen as a challenge to its development despite the fact that it is near a major river. (Reporting and writing by Jarrett Renshaw and Ernest Scheyder, and editing by Veronica Brown and Jason Neely; Edmund Klamann, Jason Neely, and Edmund Klamann.)
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Gold surpasses $3,900/oz in first ever bids for safe-haven bids
Gold surged above $3,900 an ounce for the first time Monday. This was driven by demand from safe-haven investors following the fall of the yen and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates. By 0208 GMT, spot gold had risen 1.1% to $3,929.91 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.2%, to $3.954.70. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the yen's weakness following the Japanese LDP election has made gold a more attractive safe-haven for investors. The U.S. shutdown continues to cast a shadow over the U.S. economic outlook and its potential impact on GDP. Waterer says that gold is the best asset to invest in under these conditions, especially with the Fed forecasting further rate cuts this month. After fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi won the election to lead the ruling coalition and become the new prime minister, the yen plunged the most against the dollar in five months. A senior White House official stated on Sunday that the Trump administration would begin mass layoffs if U.S. president Donald Trump determines that negotiations with Congress Democrats to end a government partial shutdown "absolutely are going nowhere". Fed Governor Stephen Miran again urged for a rate-cutting trajectory aggressive on Friday. He cited the impact of Trump's economic policy. The gold price has increased by 49% this year, after rising 27% in 2024. This is due to strong central bank purchases, an increase in demand for exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed with gold, a lower dollar, and growing interest among retail investors looking for a hedge against increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Last month, the rally received a new boost after the Fed lowered rates by a quarter-point and said it would continue to lower borrowing costs throughout the remainder of the year. Investors are pricing in an additional 25 basis-point cut in October and December with probabilities of 95% each. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. Spot gold first broke through the $3,000 per ounce level in March, and then $3,700 by mid-September. Many brokerages are bullish about the rally. Silver spot rose by 1.2% at $48.53 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.2% at $1,623.88. Palladium gained 1.2% at $1,275.65.
Andy Home: Tin prices rise as Indonesia cracksdown on illegal miners
This time, the tin supply chain is in trouble again. The government of Indonesia has started a massive crackdown on illegal mining.
The London Metal Exchange's (LME) 3-month tin price has increased to more than $37,500 a metric ton. This is the highest price since April, when the Bisie mine, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, was a supply threat. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto said that the government wants to close 1,000 illegal tin mines on the tin rich islands of Bangka & Belitung. This is the highest price since April when the supply threat was the Bisie mine in Democratic Republic of Congo.
It is impossible to estimate how much tin these operations produce, but there could be a positive offset if the closure of such operations leads to a higher level of production in the official sector.
The price of tin is rising again because it is another drop in the cauldron that is the supply crisis.
LONG CAMPAIGN
Since the deregulation of tin production at the end the 20th century, the Indonesian authorities are struggling to regain the control over the sector.
It's difficult to distinguish between those who are operating with an official license and those who don't. The boundaries have blurred so much that PT Timah, the top producer in the country, is now being accused of facilitating black market trade. Some illegal "mines", however, are nothing more than rafts that are sent out to dredge tin at night in waters licensed by PT Timah or other operators of the official sector. The tin is then smuggled from the country in small boats. One such boat was seized by the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency this week, transporting 530 sacks of tin weighing 26 tons.
Prabowo stated that the latest cracking of the regulatory whip began at the beginning of last month, and it has already led to multiple closures.
SHADOWPRODUCTION
How much tin is produced in Indonesia's shadow industry?
As such material is by definition not detected by the country's Customs Service, it exists as a statistical blackhole.
Indonesia's official export statistics capture flows of refined Tin, which is the only metal form that is supposed be shipped overseas.
Both the Chinese and Malaysian Customs Departments are recording monthly Indonesian imports. According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics, Chinese imports totaled 1,192 tons during the first eight month of the year. Malaysia imported 642 tons of "ore and concentrates" in the same period.
This could be just the tip of a very large iceberg. According to the chairman of Indonesian Tin Exporters Association, (ITEA), up to 12,000 tonnes of tin is illegally exported every year. Prabowo said that the shadow sector could represent up to 80% of the production in the Bangka Belitung area.
Estimates will always differ but there is general agreement that the problem became much worse over the past year. The illegal production boom is reducing the capacity of the official sector. PT Timah attributed a drop of 32% in ore production year-on-year in the first half 2025 to the competition with the shadow industry.
The ITEA expects a modest rebound to 53,000 tonnes this year. Last year, Indonesian exports fell to a record low of 46,000 metric tons.
In theory, the closure of illegal activities should help compensate the official sector in terms of production. However, it is unclear how much compensation and for what period.
CAULDRON
Tin price has not been waiting to find out. It has risen by 10% in the last week, as time spreads have tightened. Only a few weeks ago, the LME cash price of tin was trading at $167 below the three-month price. This week, the price has risen to $105 as shorts have been forced to purchase their positions.
The price response to the Indonesian announcement says a lot about the fragility and dependence of the tin chain on a few large producers.
One of the largest tin mining operations in the world is still not operational. Man Maw, in the semiautonomous Wa State of Myanmar, is expected to reopen after a two year absence.
The flow of raw tin materials to China is a mere trickle. This suggests that the mine has not yet reached its previous production level before the authorities closed it for an audit. The Bisie Tin Mine in Congo has been restarted after it was briefly suspended due to the M23 rebels' advance in March.
The threat is still there. No one seems to have informed the M23 that the United States is leading the effort to resolve the conflict in eastern Congo, which has lasted for decades. Kony Ng’ang’a, one of the M23 leaders, sounded uncompromising in a recent interview with CNN.
Tin traders had already enough flash points to worry about. Now they have another.
These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)