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Investors ponder Trump tax bill as they watch Asian shares rise and the dollar fluctuate
The dollar remained near its multi-year lows as Asian shares rose and markets awaited the vote on President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill. The global share markets rose to an intraday high on Monday on the back of trade optimism. However, a marathon Senate debate over a bill that would add approximately $3.3 trillion in debt to the United States weighed down sentiment. The Nikkei index of Japan's shares fell as much as 1,3%, as the yen rose against the dollar. This was bad for exporters. Gold and oil both advanced for the second session in a row. The vote on Trump's tax-cutting and spending bill was expected to take place during Tuesday's Asian trading session, but the debate continued over a series of amendments from Republicans and minority Democrats. Trump wants to see the bill pass before the Independence Day holiday on July 4. Investors are also looking forward to Thursday's key U.S. employment data as global trade negotiators rush to reach agreements before Trump's deadlines. Ray Attrill is the head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank. In a podcast, he said that the payroll data released later in the week would "have a significant impact, I believe, on the sentiment regarding the timing of Fed rate reductions." The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.4%, with South Korea's Kospi gauge leading the way at 1.1%. The latest readings of the Bank of Japan’s tankan business sentiment index and a Chinese gauge of manufacturing activity indicate that the largest economies in the area are likely to weather the tariff storm at least for the moment. Japan's manufacturing sector also grew for the first time since over a month, but a significant drop in demand underscored the difficult trade outlook for Asia’s export-dependent economies. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, while China's blue chip CSI300 Index rose 0.1%. The dollar fell 0.2% to 143.79 Japanese yen. The dollar was barely changed in relation to the euro and had earlier reached $1.1808 - the lowest since September 2021. U.S. crude fell 0.5% to $64.80 a barrel, weighed down by expectations that OPEC+ would increase its output in August. Gold spot rose 0.6%, to $3322.62 an ounce. The Euro Stoxx 50 futures for the entire region rose by 0.1%, while German DAX Futures rose by 0.2%.
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Iron ore prices fall as China's factory data and property woes weigh
Iron ore futures fell on Tuesday, as disappointing factory data in China and the persistent problems of its property sector dampened sentiment. The bearish outlook was boosted by warnings from Australian authorities about lower prices and the expectation of a softer season demand. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading 1.32% lower, at 708.5 Yuan ($98.92). As of 0349 GMT, the benchmark August iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 0.9% to $93.45 per ton. China's manufacturing sector shrank in June for the third consecutive month, but at a slightly slower pace. The business climate remains subdued. ANZ also said that the continued weakness of China's real estate sector, and a report by the Australian government warning about lower prices because of a weak outlook, further weighed down on sentiment. China Metallurgical News reported last week that Jiang Wei was the secretary general of China Iron and Steel Association and advised authorities to limit billet exports. The announcement came after shipments of semi-finished products, including steel, surged in the first half of this year. Customs data shows that China's steel exports have more than tripled during the first five months in 2025. The steel association has warned that full-year shipments may exceed 10 million tonnes. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell in price, by 3.92% and 2,7% respectively. The latest version of President Donald Trump's proposed tax bill has classified steelmaking coal as a critical minerals, which allows it to claim a credit of 2.5% on the cost of the fuel. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have lost ground. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in steel benchmarks. ($1 = 7.1623 Chinese yuan). (Reporting and editing by Lucas Liew, Sumana Nandy, and Rashmi aich)
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Kandersteg's Alpine Disaster Preparedness is a focus after a Swiss village loses its life in landslide
After a massive rockslide and glacier collapse buried an adjacent village in Kandersteg last month, officials are closely monitoring the mountain peak towering above the resort's picturesque homes and hotels. In late May, the destruction of Blatten in the Loetschental Valley, which had around 300 residents, brought into sharp focus the concern over the melting of permafrost in Alpine mountain ranges as temperatures continue to rise. Blatten evacuated its village before a piece of glacier broke, which would have triggered a cascade of dangerous ice, rock and earth towards the village. This is similar to what Kandersteg had been preparing for. Rene Maeder, the mayor of Kandersteg, said: "Of Course Blatten upset us." It really makes you feel uncomfortable. "You're speechless as you look at those images of violence in nature." Maeder was still confident that Kandersteg’s dams, daily monitoring, and researchers who checked the mountain using GPS, radar, and drones, would be able to prevent a disaster. Since 2018, there has been an increased risk of rockslides at Kandersteg. This is because paragliders noticed that Spitzer Stein - a distinctive rocky summit crowning a lush Alpine scene - was losing height. This discovery has made the village a test ground for monitoring what some experts believe will be the impact of climate changes on the Alps. Thawing permafrost in the Alps has weakened long-frozen rock structures. Mountainous areas are also at risk of earthquakes and geological instability. PERMAFROST THAWING Robert Kenner, at the Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Davos, stated that Kandersteg is a prime example for an area with structural instability. This could be further aggravated by a number of factors, such as permafrost. He said that "what was quiet for 3,000 years has now been reactivated." Maeder reported that sensors monitoring GPS positions on the Spitzer Stein revealed the mountain was shifting up to 70 centimetres a day (2.3 feet). Residents should be notified at least 48 hours before a major rock movement. Initial estimates by the Swiss Insurance Association showed that Blatten had been evacuated ten days prior to the deluge. This caused insurance losses in the amount of 320 million Swiss Francs (about $400 million). About 48 Swiss Alpine peaks are at least 4,000 metres (13,123 ft) high, while several hundred others are at least 3000 meters. Eight hikers were killed in 2017 by a landslide that occurred in the village of Bondo. This happened despite previous evacuations. Since then, monitoring has been intensified. "TIP OF ICEBERG" Kandersteg has spent more than 11 million Swiss Francs ($13.81million) on disaster preparation, including dams that slow down flooding, according to Mayor Maeder. Residents who receive regular updates via email and WhatsApp on the mountain's movement have confidence in the technology. Patrick Jost is the head of Kandersteg’s tourism office. His home is among those most vulnerable to a possible Spitzer Stein collapse. The red zone is the most dangerous area of the village, and no new constructions are allowed. Locals claim that despite the shock caused by Blatten, most aspects of life are unchanged. This includes vital tourism. Maeder, who said: "Blatten, Kandersteg - that's only the tip of the Iceberg," noted, Kandersteg would perform its first full evacuation drill in the coming year. Rudi Schorer, a 77-year old resident, knows that he will need to act quickly in an emergency and has set aside his identification details, extra clothes, and some belongings. Schorer replied, "These are already in a suitcase back home." "That's exactly what we were told to do and what we did."
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The price of oil has fallen on the back of OPEC+'s increased supply and tariff worries
The oil prices fell on Tuesday due to expectations that OPEC+ will increase their output in August, and fears of a slowdown in the economy caused by higher U.S. Tariffs. Brent crude dropped 30 cents or 0.5% to $66.44 per barrel at 0430 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude also fell 33 cents or 0.5% to $64.78 per barrel. Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a recent note that "the market is concerned the OPEC+ will continue its accelerated pace of output increases". Four OPEC+ source told us last week that they plan to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day in August. This follows similar increases in May, July, and June. If approved, OPEC+ would increase its total oil supply for the year by 1.78 million bpd. This is equivalent to over 1.5% of global demand. OPEC+ (OPEC, its allies, including Russia) will meet on the 6th of July. ING commodities analysts said that "these larger supply increases will leave the global market well-supplied for the rest of the year." "The market appears to be reassured by the expectation of a stable oil balance and a large amount OPEC spare capacity," ING said. Oil prices were also held back by uncertainty about U.S. Tariffs and their impact. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent warned countries that they could face a sharply increased tariff despite good faith negotiations, as the deadline of July 9 approaches. This is when tariffs are set to return from a temporary level of 10% to the suspended rates announced by President Donald Trump on April 2, which ranges between 11% and 50%. Morgan Stanley believes Brent futures will retrace back to $60 around early next year. The market is well-supplied and the geopolitical risks have abated following the de-escalation between Israel and Iran. It anticipates a surplus of 1.3m bpd by 2026. Brent prices rose after a 12-day conflict that began on June 13, when Israel targeted Iran's nuclear installations. After the U.S. attacked Iran's nuclear sites, Brent prices soared over $80 per barrel. They then fell to $67 a bar after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. (Reporting from Anjana Anil and Jeslyn in Bengaluru; editing by Himani Sarkar.)
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IDB will increase climate finance support to at least $11 billion
Inter-American Development Bank President, said that the bank aims to attract at least $11billion in new climate finance by launching a series initiatives to assist countries with global warming impacts and to attract private funding. Multilateral lenders, such as IDB, are being encouraged to squeeze even more out of what they already have. Ilan Goldfajn, speaking on the sidelines of 4th International Conference on Financing for Development said that the IDB's series of actions would help to attract more private funding - which was a major goal of the conference. He said: "We are not merely announcing new ideas, we're launching the things that private sector has been asking for, such as credible tools, scalable platform, and real investment opportunities with impact and confidence." Investors have been deterred by currency fluctuations for years because it is difficult to predict returns. The plan is to expand the project to at least two new countries in the next three-year period, and to double the amount of money raised. The initiative, called FX Edge, will offer a credit line that kicks in when a currency drops sharply. This will help projects with local currency revenue meet their obligations to pay overseas. The platform will also seek to increase the use of derivatives and other long-term currency hedge instruments, such as those offered by local banks and financial institutes. These instruments are backed up by IDB's rating. The IDB, in collaboration with the World Bank plans to also issue up to 1 billion dollars in Amazonia Bonds. These bonds were launched as a test last year, to help reduce deforestation and support the communities of the largest rainforest on earth. Brazil, Colombia Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador are expected to embrace the Amazonia framework, which is supported by Amazonia, as they work to protect a region that is more than 6,000,000 square kilometres in size (2.3 million square mile) and contains more than 10% of known plants and animals on Earth. Goldfajn stated that the IDB will also increase the number countries who can access a newly enlarged emergency relief fund of $5 billion called the Contingent Credit Facility for Natural Disasters. Together with other multilateral development institutions, it will expand its Climate Resilient debt clauses. These give countries the choice to suspend their loan payments up to two-years in case of disasters. The IDB is expected to provide $4.2 billion of total coverage by 2026. Goldfajn added that the bank also created the Regional Disaster Risk Transfer Program which allows countries to transfer risks associated with extreme weather events onto insurance and capital markets. IDB Invest's separate Business Resilience Program would, meanwhile introduce new debt clauses in contracts with private companies, to cushion them against climate risks. Goldfajn stated that "each of these are important in their own right, but when taken together they demonstrate how development banks can move the needle through tailoring risk to investors." (Reporting from Simon Jessop in London, Marc Jones in Seville and Matthew Lewis in the editing)
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Vallourec Bags ADNOC Order for Tubular Solutions
French tubular solutions supplier Vallourec has secured a significant order from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) for the supply of more than 30,000 tons of carbon steel tubulars and associated accessories featuring VAM premium connections.This order is part of the ongoing Long-Term Agreement (LTA) for the supply of Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) between Vallourec and ADNOC.This agreement also involves an integrated suite of services, such as VAM Field Service and value-added digital solutions designed to optimize installation and maintenance practices.These services will ensure that ADNOC’s oil and gas fields operate with maximum efficiency. To meet the project's supply and delivery requirements, production will be carried out across Vallourec’s industrial sites in Brazil, China, and Indonesia.This order fully aligns with ADNOC’s ambitious target of reaching 5 million barrels per day of production by 2027.“This contract reflects Vallourec’s unwavering commitment to supplying ADNOC with premium products and services, built on decades of operational excellence in the Middle East. Thanks to our track record and field-proven efficiencies, we continue to deliver state-of-the-art OCTG solutions and related services to major operators like ADNOC,” said Laurent Dubedout, Senior Vice President OCTG, Services and Accessories.
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Osbit Opens New Offshore Wind Facility in Port of Blyth
Osbit, an offshore wind engineering company operating as part of Venterra Group, has opened a new assembly and service facility at the Port of Blyth in the U.K, bolstering its offshore wind service offering. The development has created 33 skilled jobs for the region and represents a substantial investment in the North East's clean energy economy.The new 3350 square metre facility, located at the Port's Wimbourne Quay, boasts a build and test space four times larger than Osbit's previous site, provides access to multiple heavy lift quays, and can accommodate four times as many skilled workers in the adjoining office space.The expansion has already doubled the number of permanent positions at its assembly facility, enhancing Osbit's capabilities in delivering offshore equipment in line with industry demand.The construction of this new facility was made possible by a grant from the Business Growth Fund, which is funded by the Northeast Combined Authority, Gateshead Metropolitan Borough Council, and Sunderland City Council through the UK Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF).Osbit is part of Venterra Group, a UK-based, global provider of offshore wind services dedicated to the mission of 'helping wind power grow'. The new facility will enhance collaboration across Venterra's portfolio of offshore wind companies, with meeting rooms and dedicated client hosting facilities reinforcing Osbit and Venterra's role in supporting the UK supply chain and enabling the clean energy transition.The Port of Blyth has been instrumental in the development of Osbit's expanded facility. The project included the conversion of one of the Port's warehouses at their Bates Clean Energy Terminal into a n engineering workshop for Osbit.The transformation included the addition of new offices and overhead cranes, allowing for enhanced operational capabilities.Now fully operational, the facility has already contributed to the delivery of first-of-kind wind farm installation tools, a floating offshore wind cable testing rig, and multiple offshore access gangways.
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Australia's red-meat industry abandons 2030 carbon neutrality goal
A group representing the Australian livestock industry said Tuesday that it had given up its goal of making the sector, which is a major emitter and planet-warming methane by 2030, carbon neutral. However, reducing emissions will remain a top priority. Meat & Livestock Australia released its long-term strategy on Tuesday, but the carbon neutral pledge was not included. Michael Crowley said that the target was unachievable. He said, "We need to invest more time and money in order to achieve our goal." Last week, Australia's Red Meat Advisory Council removed the 2030 climate neutrality goal from its strategic plan. These decisions are similar to those taken by some companies and governments who have reduced their climate commitments over the past few years. The original 2030 goal of the livestock industry was to reduce emissions, and offset any remaining ones by sequestering carbon in soil or plant material. The industry has been working on innovative solutions to reduce methane emissions, including breeding animals that emit less, adding seaweed as a feed supplement that can inhibit the production of methane in the gut and improving soil carbon-capture techniques. According to Australia's science agency CSIRO this is due to less clearing of land and a smaller herd, not a reduction in the amount of methane per animal. Crowley stated that the research conducted over the past few years will mature into implementation, and the industry can still achieve 80-90% its carbon neutrality target by 2030. He said, "We must drive adoption." He said that the 2030 goal had spurred more than A$100,000,000 ($66,000,000) in sustainability investment and MLA (a livestock research and marketing organization), would continue to drive improvements in efficiency and reduce net emissions for each kilogram of meat produced. According to the MLA, Australia is one of world's largest exporters of meat. It has 30 million cattle as well as more than 70 millions sheep. These animals produce methane during digestion. It breaks down with time, but it is 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide in trapping heat for a period of 20 years.
Investors watch US trade talks as copper prices rise on a weaker dollar
The London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw copper prices rise on Tuesday, despite the weaker dollar. Meanwhile, uncertainty remained over U.S.-China trade.
By 0103 GMT the LME's three-month contract for copper rose 0.15%, to $9,883.5 a metric ton, while the SHFE's most traded copper contract increased 0.1%, to 79840 yuan (11,145.23).
The worries about the U.S. deficit have weakened the dollar (which) is supportive of commodities. My focus this week will be the U.S. Trade talks," said an analyst in Beijing from a futures firm.
The dollar index fell by 0.35% on Monday to 96.86, putting it on course for a sixth consecutive month of losses and its worst half year since the 1970s.
The greenback is less expensive to buyers of other currencies.
Last week, U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said that the U.S.-China had resolved the issues surrounding shipments of Chinese magnets and rare earth minerals to the U.S. This further modified a May agreement in Geneva.
Bessent added that even if countries are negotiating with good faith on July 9, they could still be facing sharply higher tariffs. Any possible extensions would be at the discretion of Trump.
LME nickel dropped 0.33% to $16,165 per ton. Zinc eased by 0.31% to $2.743 and lead fell by 0.12% to $2.042.
SHFE Nickel fell by 0.65%, to 120,180 Yuan. Zinc fell 0.51%, to 22,320 Yuan. Tin dropped 0.27%, to 267410 Yuan. Lead fell by 0.15%, to 17,120 Yan.
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Data/Events (GMT 0600 UK National House Price mm,yy June 0750 France S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI. June 0800 EU Final HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI. June 0830 UK S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI. June 0900 EU Flash HICP F, E A, T YY,MM. June 1345 US S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI. June 1440 US ISM Manufacturing Final PMI.
(source: Reuters)