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Goldman increases copper price forecast for 2H25 on the basis of tariff-driven supply risk and China demand
Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will rise to $9,890 on average per metric ton in the second half 2025, according to a bank note. The bank cited fears of a global shortage of supply due to U.S. Tariffs and increased Chinese activity. The world's biggest economy has imported copper in excess, approximately 400,000 kilotonnes this year. The bank reports that, while the global market has a surplus at the moment, the excess imports are causing concern about a possible shortage of copper in countries outside the U.S. Goldman expects that the Trump administration will impose a 25 percent tariff on imports of copper once an investigation is completed into foreign copper. Late in February, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered an investigation into possible tariffs on imports of copper to rebuild the domestic production of this critical metal. Copper is used for electric vehicles and semiconductors as well as military hardware, consumer goods, and other products. The bank stated that "copper markets are priced under 60% of the probability of a 25 percent import tariff by May." Goldman predicts that copper prices will reach a peak of $10,050 by August, as the threat of tariffs erodes inventories outside the United States, and Chinese demand is resilient. Prices will then be expected to drop to $9,700 in December as the tariff threat erodes ex-U.S. inventories. The bank stressed that the market does not currently price a high probability of a 25% tariff. As a result, the bank recommends a trading strategy that takes advantage of the price difference between the U.S. copper and UK markets. The bank has revised copper prices upwards because China, one of the biggest destinations for the metal, is experiencing "relatively robust activity" at the moment. Goldman has slightly reduced its forecast for 2026 copper prices to $10,000 per ton, down from the earlier estimate of $10,170. Prices are expected to reach $10350 by December. The company remains bullish about copper prices for 2027. It expects the average price to be $10,750, despite a growing supply deficit due to strong electrification demands and limited mine supply. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora and Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Chris Reese and Sandra Maler)
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El dead and many injured in mass shooting in Mexican state plagued by gangs
Authorities said that at least 11 people, including a teenage girl, were killed and others wounded in an attack on Tuesday night in Irapuato in central Mexico. According to the attorney general's office of Guanajuato (the state plagued by violence where Irapuato lies), 20 other people were hospitalized for gunshot injuries. The Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum claimed earlier that day, Wednesday, that there were children among the victims. However, the Attorney General's Office confirmed later only one victim was a minor. She was 17 years old. It is a very sad thing that happened. Sheinbaum confirmed that an investigation was underway. Local media reported that the shooting occurred during a party to celebrate a Catholic holiday called the Nativity of John Baptist. A video that circulated on social media shows people dancing in a patio of an apartment complex, while a background band plays. Gunfire then breaks out. The video was not verified immediately. Guanajuato is one of the most violent areas in Mexico. Criminal groups are constantly fighting over the best routes to sell drugs and other crimes. According to the Attorney General's Office, five more people were also killed on Tuesday in other areas of the state. Reporting by Raul Cordes, Aida Pelaez-Fernandez, and Lizbeth Diz; Writing and Editing by Sarah Morland and Nick Zieminski;
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Three Mile Island nuclear reactor restart fast-tracked until 2027
Constellation Energy executives said that the former Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania could restart in 2027. This is about a full year earlier than originally planned. The plant was put on a faster track to connect with the regional grid. Constellation Energy signed a contract last September for Microsoft data centers. This paved the way for the reopening of Three Mile Island. Three Mile Island is known as the site where a partial nuclear meltdown occurred in 1979, which shook the industry. Constellation’s 20-year agreement to purchase power from Microsoft is emblematic for the lengths that Big Tech will go to in order to fuel its artificial-intelligence expansion. This began intensifying a year and a half ago. The reactor that will be reopening at Three Mile Island and renamed Crane Clean Energy Center was not involved in the 1979 accident. It shut down for economic reasons in 2019. Constellation CEO Joe Dominguez said, "We made a big mistake by shutting this plant down, but we are not here to dwell in the past." He was speaking at an event held on Three Mile Island. The event featured giant cooling towers, and the nuclear reactor that will now be renamed Crane. Constellation stated that the nuclear building was in the same condition as when it closed in 2019. Since the restart announcement most of the effort has been focused on planning and hiring. The company has also ordered fuel and its main transformer for the restart. The company has also completed the necessary infrastructure inspections and restored water systems to operate the plant. Constellation announced the restart last year and said that it expected the plant would reopen in 2028. Officials from the company said that they anticipated the process would be slowed down by the wait times for connecting power projects to PJM's regional grid. "When PJM connects this, we're ready," Dominguez stated on Wednesday. In spite of the excitement, historically nuclear power plant construction has been overbudget and behind schedule. A nuclear power plant that was shut down has not been restarted. However, a restart attempt of the Palisades Nuclear Plant in Michigan is underway. Nuclear power is gaining popularity after years of decline. New York Plans to build a nuclear power plant. This would be the first in a decade. FAST-TRACKED WORKS Hundreds Constellation employees attended the event on Wednesday, along with PJM CEO Manu Ashthana and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro who pushed to have the restart approved through PJM. PJM can have a long queue of power projects. This is essentially an application and engineering study to connect a power station to the broader network. PJM covers 13 states, the District of Columbia and about 67,000,000 customers. In order to relieve some of this bottleneck, especially as data centers are rapidly spreading across PJM territory, the largest grid operator in the United States has accelerated its interconnection processes for selected projects. Shapiro stated that the largest project expedited by PJM was Crane. He said: "I'm focused like a beam of light on the future for Pennsylvania, and that future is right here in places like Crane." According to Dominguez, Constellation officials and others, more than 400 workers have been hired so far to work at the plant. In addition, 30 operators are being trained to work in the control rooms of the newly reopened facility. They said that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission will visit Crane to observe training in July. (Reporting and editing by Laila K. Kearney, Liz Hampton, Sonali Paul and Marguerita C. Choy).
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Fastmarkets predicts that China will surpass Australia by 2026 as the world's largest lithium miner.
Fastmarkets has forecast that China will surpass Australia by the end of next year as the top producer of lithium for battery use. Its market dominance is also expected to increase through 2035, even though many Chinese producers are still unprofitable. These projections highlight Beijing's dominance in the global metals industry. China is the largest miner and refiner of over half the minerals deemed critical by the U.S. Geological Survey. Paul Lusty said, "China has a very specific strategy for developing its mineral resources" on the sidelines at the Fastmarkets Lithium and Battery Raw Materials Conference, held in Las Vegas. Since taking over the top spot from Chile, Australia is now the largest lithium producer in world. However, Australian miners have cut back on production or delayed expansions due to a drop in global lithium prices. Fastmarkets estimates that Chinese miners will likely extract between 8,000 and 10,000 more metric tonnes of lithium next year than their Australian counterparts. This would be a significant jump from 2023 when China was the third largest lithium producer in the world. According to forecasts, Chinese miners will likely extract 900,000.00 metric tonnes of lithium by 2035. This compares to Australia's 680,000.000 metric tonnage, Chile's 435,000.000 tonnage, and Argentina's 380.000.000 tonnage. China's growth is largely due to the mining of lepidolite ore, a hard rock ore that is abundant in the south of the country. Lepidolite mining in China is more expensive than lithium extraction from brines of salt. It can also cause greater environmental damage due to toxic byproducts like thallium or tantalum, which pollute water sources. China's miners of lithium have resisted cutting production because they are supported by the Chinese government and "pressured" to keep their operations open, thus preserving local jobs. They also want to maintain a market share, as the demand for the metal is increasing, Lusty explained. He said: "This continued production, despite the lackluster profitability in the market, starts to make more sense when you take all these factors into consideration." Chinese battery giant CATL, one of the world's largest lepidolite producers, paused production in a major mine last September and resumed output in February. China has held a 70% share of the global ultralight metal market for many years, despite its mining. The metal is refined into a form which can be used in batteries. Fastmarkets predicts that other countries' efforts to increase their own lithium refinery will reduce China's share of the market to 60% by 2035. According to LG Energy Solutions, China is also a leader in the electric vehicle industry. More than 60% of all EVs sold globally last year were produced there. (Reporting and editing by Leslie Adler; Ernest Scheyder)
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US announces new policy for offshore mineral exploration
The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump announced Wednesday policy changes that it claimed would accelerate the search and exploration for critical minerals offshore. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement update policies at all stages of the development process to "reduce delay, improve coordination and give greater certainty to industry", according the U.S. Interior Department released a statement. Why it's important The Trump administration is working to reshape a vital mineral industry that has been dominated by China - the U.S.'s top economic rival. The Interior Department's policy update follows an April executive order from Trump aimed at improving U.S. accessibility to critical minerals such as nickel, copper, and others. DETAILS Interior Department stated that BOEM plans to extend early-stage permits from three to five years. The administration will reduce "unnecessary compliance and paperwork steps" in order to expedite approvals for mapping and testing. BOEM will identify potential areas for development, without issuing an official request for information. The department also said that it would form a task force in conjunction with federal and state agencies to accelerate the leasing process. The U.S. Geological Survey is providing the Bureaus with scientific data about critical mineral resources as well as environmental impacts and hazards related to seafloor development. Ismail Shakil, Ottawa; Ed Osmond, Ottawa.
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Germany's retail and industrial sectors, as well as the energy sector, criticise the power subsidy plan
On Wednesday, representatives of the energy, retail and industrial sectors criticised Germany's plan for a reduction in electricity tax. They warned that it could have a limited impact and distort the competition. The average electricity price in Germany is 38 cents per kilowatt hour, which ranks fifth in the world. In early this year, the ruling coalition in Germany of conservatives (conservatives) and social democrats (social democrats) agreed to reduce electricity tax for all consumers to the European Minimum. The Finance Ministry's framework budget for the year 2026, which was presented on Tuesday, limited the relief planned to the industries of agriculture, forestry and industry. It excluded many consumers and companies, citing financial problems. The first dispute since the CDU/CSU and SPD took over government last month is the disagreement between the parties about the size of the subsidy. Alexander von Preen of HDE, the head of trade association, stated that "by breaching the coalition agreement the government has thrown away the trust of business and torn the rug from underneath companies." Sepp Mueller, deputy leader of CDU/CSU's conservative parliamentary group, stated that reducing the cost of electricity for all remained the goal of the party. Mueller said, "Now we need to discuss quickly when we can implement it." The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce said that the reductions were a slap on the face to many companies, as the government sold the scheme as a quick fix. Peter Adrian, DIHK's President, said: "Nobody understands why this small but important relief, which is already possible, should not be available, despite planned debt records." Katherina Reiche, Germany's Economy Minister, said on Wednesday that the country will present a concrete idea for a price of industrial electricity after the European Union implemented a new framework for state aids which would allow such subsidies. BDEW, the German utilities lobby, also warned about market distortions as well as a slowdown of renewable energy expansion. The BDI association says that the limited scope and many restrictions of this measure leaves too little room for lowering electricity prices to a level where they are internationally competitive. The ZDH Central Association of Skilled Crafts stated that an industrial electricity rate would distort the competition and harm small and medium-sized businesses. These companies must also co-finance these reliefs. (Reporting and editing by Ed Osmond, Holger Hansen and Christian Kraemer)
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Cutifani, Chair of Vale Base Metals, to step down. Pimenta will take over.
According to a filing with the Brazilian Securities Commission, Vale announced on Wednesday that Mark Cutifani would step down as Chairman of its copper-nickel spinoff Vale Base Metals in order to "pursue professional projects." The company announced that Vale CEO Gustavo Pimenta would replace him in July. This will "ensure strong leadership and alignment with Vale’s broader strategic goals" within the business. Vale, the iron ore giant, spun off its base metals division as a separate company with headquarters in Toronto by 2023. The goal is to eventually list it. Cutifani, who was chief executive of London-listed Anglo American for nearly a decade, until 2022, won plaudits. Cutifani stated in a press release that "we thought it would take two to three years to set them up (Vale Base Metals)," for an IPO. Since then, we have seen a 40% rise in productivity and a 20 percent reduction in costs. "Gustavo... is the one who will make the final decision as to whether and when to IPO," he said, without commenting about his new professional endeavors. Cutifani resigns just months after Shaun Usmar, a veteran mining executive, was appointed as CEO of Vale Base Metals. Marina Calero, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said: "The elephant in VBM's room is the timing for an IPO. We do not expect it to happen anytime soon."
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JSW Steel petitions India's highest court to review the Bhushan Power collapse.
JSW Steel, an Indian steelmaker, said it filed a review application before India's highest court on Wednesday in relation to the rejection by the court of its $2.3 billion acquisition plan of Bhushan Power and Steel. The Supreme Court of India, in its ruling on the resolution plan for JSW Steel to acquire BPSL, ordered the liquidation of the company four years after it was acquired. The court halted liquidation proceedings on May 26 after JSW Steel, and some BPSL creditors informed the Supreme Court they would be filing a review against the order. The court said the liquidation proceedings would continue until a petition for review is submitted and considered. Reports in May stated that the collapse of the deal has caused concern among potential buyers of distressed assets. Many lawyers and bankruptcy law specialists have said the ruling has caused concern to potential buyers of insolvent firms or bankrupt companies. JSW Steel said that the Supreme Court had cited serious procedural errors as a reason for its ruling. The company said that the order had no impact on them. (Reporting and editing by Shash Kuber in Bengaluru, Manvi Pant)
Vale will eliminate the use of water in Carajas iron-ore processing by 2027
Vale executives announced on Tuesday that the mining giant aims to end the use of water in the processing of iron ore by its Carajas Mines by 2027. The company also plans to expand pellet feed production at the complex located in northern Brazil through the reuse and recycling mine waste. Vale stated that by eliminating the use of water for iron ore beneficiation, it would reduce the amount of waste, known as tailings, in the production process. This would also eliminate the need to build new dams and save money.
Carajas in Brazil's Para State is the largest open-pit iron ore mining complex in the world. A part of its operations has already adopted dry processing. Vale's Northern System, which comprises 90% of its operations, no longer uses water for beneficiation.
By the end of 2027, they will be completely dry. "The Northern System will run 100% on natural moisture," Vale Director Gildiney Sales stated. Gildiney Sales was referring to a region that produced 177.5 millions metric tons iron ore in the year 2024. This is more than half Vale's overall output.
The company said it also expects to double its production by 2026 compared to the current year for its Gelado project, which produces high-quality feed pellets using tailings that have been stored at the Gelado Dam since 1985.
According to the company, its production is expected to reach 5 million tonnes next year, and 6 millions tons by 2027.
10% of the total annual production
By 2030, "circular mining' will be responsible for a third of the world's coal production. Reporting by Roberto Samora, Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Chizu Nimiyama
(source: Reuters)