Latest News

US foreign direct investment in the first quarter of 2018 falls sharply amid uncertainty over tariffs

US foreign direct investment in the first quarter of 2018 falls sharply amid uncertainty over tariffs

The Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that foreign direct investment in the U.S. dropped sharply to $52.8 billion in the first quarter from a downwardly-revised $79.9 billion during the fourth quarter 2024. This drop coincided with a high level of business uncertainty due to President Donald Trump's proposed tariff plans.

As announced U.S. Manufacturing projects worth billions of dollars get underway, and Nippon Steel acquires U.S. Steel for nearly $15 billion, the data from current and future quarters will be boosted.

As businesses rushed to import goods ahead of Trump's tariffs, the lower FDI inflows during the first quarter contributed to a rise in U.S. Current Account Deficit to a new record of $450 billion.

Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department also reported that the current account data of the fourth quarter has been revised and now shows a gap of $312.0 billion, not $303.9 billion.

Current account data is a measure of the net flow in and out of a country of goods, investments and services. The large and persistent U.S. deficit in trade has been partially offset by foreign direct investments and investment into U.S. assets, including plant and equipment and corporate mergers and purchases. In dollar terms, the first-quarter FDI was the lowest since the fourth-quarter of 2022 when $42.4 billion inflows occurred. This period coincided with high inflation after the pandemic.

Commerce Department data show that, except for this drop, quarterly FDI had risen to $61 billion since the COVID-19 epidemic eased, and reached a high of $135 billion during the third quarter 2021.

Economists warn that the extreme uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs may paralyze business investment decisions and slow economic growth. Trump claims that his tariffs have prompted companies to invest in the U.S. so as to avoid tariffs.

Capital Economics' chief North American economist, Paul Ashworth, acknowledged that there was a possibility that the uncertainty in the market could impact some investment decisions, but warned that quarterly FDI can be volatile due to specific transactions, such as mergers and acquisitions or large projects.

Ashworth, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, said that the data for the first quarter was likely noise and not indicative or anything more serious.

He predicted that FDI would increase in the future as Japanese and other automakers begin to invest in U.S. manufacturing.

Hyundai Motor of South Korea and Hyundai Steel announced in April that they would invest $21 billion in new U.S. manufacturing alongside Trump at the White House. The hard-fought acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel for $14.9 billion closed last week. This will be reflected in the second quarter inflows.

Ashworth said, "I'd expect FDIs to increase."

(source: Reuters)