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Analysts' reactions to the US-China Trade Agreement

U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that restrictions on magnets and rare earths should be resolved as a result of a framework for trade and implementing plan with China agreed in London.

Li Chenggang, Vice Minister of Commerce in China, said that the two teams agreed to implement their Geneva consensus. They would then take the framework agreed upon back to their respective leaders.

Market reaction: The dollar and share markets were cautious, with S&P futures down by 0.3%. They awaited more details and to see if the decision would last.

QUOTES:

CHRIS WESTON HEAD OF RESEARCH PEPPERSTONE MELBOURNE

The devil is in the detail, but the lack reaction indicates that this outcome was fully expected.

The Geneva agreement is a good thing, but the fact that there was no reaction on S&P500 Futures and only small movements in CNH and AUD suggests the outcome was expected. Details matter, particularly the amount of rare earths going to the US and the freedom of US chips to go East. But for now, as long as headlines about the talks between the parties are positive, risk assets will be supported.

The reaction of Chinese equity markets could be telling, and I suspect US equity Futures will closely track the developments today."

LIN GENGWEI is the co-founder and CEO of RAIN TREE PARTNERS in Singapore.

Both sides are willing and under pressure to reach a deal. The Sino-U.S. Rivalry will continue to persist despite the temporary success of these talks.

The U.S. may ease restrictions on chip exports from China in response to both pressures from Beijing and the domestic semiconductor industry.

MARK DONG, CO-FOUNDER OF MINORITY ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG:

This is good news for the market. There's now a bottom-line that neither side will cross.

Both sides will work to reduce the trade deficit.

MICHAEL McCARTHY, CHIEF OFFICER MOOMOO AUSTRALIA SYDNEY

"I will be watching how bonds trade on this day in light of it." Currency markets seem to be taking this in stride and equity markets have returned to their all-time highs.

Since weeks, the market has been anticipating this deal. It will be positive for the market, as a result of a weaker dollar and higher equities. But it is not a major change.

CAROL KONG CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BBANK OF AUSTRALIAN, SYDNEY

"I believe in this climate...any hints of progress on a possible trade agreement will be beneficial for the markets. Although details are scarce, I believe that markets will be pleased as long as both sides are in communication.

"It's going to be hard for both sides and take a very long time before they can reach a comprehensive agreement." This type of comprehensive agreement usually takes years to reach, so I am skeptical that the framework agreed upon at the London meeting will be comprehensive. "Tensions may have de-escalated temporarily, but will escalate in the coming months."

RAY ATTRILL HEAD OF FOREX STRATEGY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK SYDNEY

"The devil will be in the detail of what I call a handshake deal and, more importantly, if this can help to reestablish the trust between President Xi, and President Trump which was clearly broken since the Geneva Agreement has been published. It's too early to declare that we are in the process of creating a new, cast-iron US-China trading agreement.

"The entire year was littered by positive omens of reaching agreements, but we haven't seen any real progress. Or we've seen a backsliding in things that seemed to be agreed.

"Our view remains that, whatever is agreed upon in the next few weeks and months will result in a global situation that is worse than what existed before Trump was elected president. We'll still have a tariff climate that we believe is detrimental to global growth."

TONY SYCAMORE MARKET ANALYST IG SYDNEY

If we maintain the terms of the Geneva Agreement we will see US tariffs for Chinese goods remaining at 30% for some time, and Chinese tariffs for US goods remaining at 10%. This is a reduction from 145% and 125%, respectively. This would be amazing.

"That was the consensus for me...and people are now trying to decide whether they want to buy or sell the US Dollar and I think that is a reflection of this indecision.

I thought that Geneva would be extended and it appears we are getting what I expected. This is why the U.S. equity market has held up at this time. They still seem overcooked to me and I think they should pull back. We've had a great run, and now we're pushing up against our February record highs. For me, I think it's a good idea for them to take some time off. It has not exceeded expectations and it is also not below expectations. It's exactly where I expected we would land, and that's the reason I think there's now a bit of uncertainty in US equity futures."

(source: Reuters)