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Gold falls as oil prices rise, Fed rate hike voices grow
Gold?prices?fell on Monday?as a escalation of the Middle?East?war pushed Brent?crude above $90 a?barrel, heightening concerns about inflation after many U.S. Federal Reserve officials signaled that interest rate increases may be necessary to curb price pressures. As of 0242 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.1%, at $4,014.53 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were unchanged at $4,019.80. U.S. officials announced that they had completed nine consecutive nights of attacks against Iran. Earlier, the U.S. announced that two U.S. soldiers were killed in Jordan. Meanwhile, U.S. partners in the region reported more Iranian attacks Sunday. The weekend escalations increased the risk of both sides launching a full-scale offensive, which could threaten gold prices, as the opportunity costs for holding the metal would increase if the ongoing stagflation fear started to take hold, said Kelvin Woong, senior market analyst at OANDA. Brent oil prices rose 3% on the back of reduced energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices that are high can cause inflation fears, and increase the odds of interest rates staying higher for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can increase the cost of owning the non-yielding investment. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has added her voice to the growing chorus of policymakers who believe that interest rates need to be raised to combat persistent?inflation. This will set up a heated debate at the Fed’s next meeting, and could lead to disagreements during Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second meeting. CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders now price in an 82% chance for a December interest rate hike, up from 73% last weekend. Wong said, "On the long term, I am more cautious about?gold. I look at the $3,886?level which, if broken on the?downside, could potentially unleash a further decline towards $3,500." Other metals, such as spot silver, rose 1.9%, to $56.95 an ounce. Platinum was up by 0.5%, at $1,599.97, and palladium fell 0.2%, to $1,244.50.
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Indian shares could open slightly lower due to concerns about the Middle East; earnings are in focus
Indian shares will open slightly lower?Monday due to rising oil prices, a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. This is offset by better than expected earnings from 'heavyweights' Reliance Industries & ICICI Bank. As of 7:59 am IST, the GIFT Nifty futures GIFc1 were trading at 24,297.5. This indicates that the Nifty 50 may open below Friday's closing price of 24,334.3. U.S. troops struck Iran for the ninth day in a row as the number of American?military casualties increased to three. Concerns grew over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 2.5%, topping $90 per barrel for a first time in more than a month. This is causing concern for economies that are import-dependent like India. The focus at home will be on earnings, after India's top four private banks (and oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries) announced their quarterly results over the weekend and after the market hours. Reliance Industries, owned by billionaire Mukesh ambani, beat expectations in the first quarter of net profit. This was due to strong performance across its retail, telecom, and oil-tochemicals businesses. ICICI Bank reported higher than expected earnings for the second quarter of this year, due to a stronger loan demand and lower provisions for bad debts. Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank and other private lenders in India also reported earnings that exceeded analysts' expectations. Jefferies reported that ICICI Bank surprised positively. Kotak Bank followed, then?Axis Bank. HDFC Bank's results were weaker. Last week, India's benchmark Nifty and BSE Sensex grew by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. This was due to IT stocks that had better than expected earnings. Meanwhile, heavyweights HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Reliance Industries climbed between 1.4% and 2.4%.
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Carney says Trump told him that Canada needs to control wildfires
U.S. president Donald Trump said on Sunday that he had told Canadian prime minister Mark Carney that Canada must 'do better' at controlling Ontario wildfires, whose smoke has affected many U.S. state. Trump claimed that he had spoken to Carney on Sunday, at the FIFA World Cup Final they both attended. Trump said to reporters that he had a "good relationship" with Mark Carney but that they needed to put out the fires in New Jersey. "Maybe we should impose some tariffs or they could pay us some damages." The smoke from fires burning in Ontario has blanketed the United States, from the Midwest through the Northeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Residents have been warned to stay inside as much as possible. Carney's Office did not respond immediately to a comment request on Trump's remarks. In a Saturday post on X,?Carney stated that?Canada is deploying more than 5,300 firefighters and using data and advanced thermal 'imaging? to support real-time detection efforts and mitigation. According to government data, approximately?5,9 million acres (2.4 millions hectares) of land in Canada has been burned by wildfires this season. According to climate experts, rising temperatures are driving wildfires across the globe. (Reporting and editing by Sergio Non, Michael Perry, and Hannah Lang in New York)
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What is China's next surprise on the oil market? Lower fuel imports and higher fuel exports: Russell
China's reaction to the Iran conflict is not surprising, but the degree to which the world's largest?crude oil importer reduced its oil imports and refinery production. China has a "strong record" of reducing crude imports to respond to rising prices and increasing arrivals when the price drops. The collapse of imports in June to their lowest level in nearly 10 years was dramatic. This is especially true when you consider that, despite the fact that crude prices spiked in the weeks following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in February, they did not reach the levels reached in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. According to official data, China's crude imports in June were 7,12 million barrels a day (bpd), which is the lowest level since October 2016, and down 41.3% compared with the same month last. A drop of this magnitude would normally have led to a huge drawdown on China's inventory, but that didn't occur. Refiners in China reduced processing rates in June to 12,47 million bpd, a 17.7% drop from the same period in 2025. This is the lowest level since March 2020 during the COVID-19 Pandemic. China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of strategic and commercial stockpiles. However, an estimate can easily be calculated by subtracting the amount processed from total crude produced domestically and imported. This means that refiners have a total of 11,53 million bpd. The 12.27 million bpd they processed meant that approximately 940,000 bpd were drawn from inventory, up from around 500,000 bpd back in May. China added reserves to its first-half total despite drawing from stockpiles for the past two months. The surplus crude was around 530,000 barrels per day. Beijing's unofficial export restrictions of refined products were a major factor in China's ability to reduce refinery runs dramatically in June. This was seen as a response to ensure a sufficient supply of fuels for the domestic market, during the Iran conflict. According to Kpler's data, China exported 393,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light and medium distillates in June. This is slightly less than the 400,000 bpd exports in May, but higher than the 54-month-low of 338,000 bpd that was recorded in April. It is clear that China played a major role in adjusting the demand for crude oil throughout the current Iran Crisis, which saw the loss of approximately 10 million bpd of supply of crude and refined products due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. China's exports have also been reduced since April, contributing to the tightness of product markets. What is China going to do to respond to the current crisis? Prices are key China could be planning another surprise for the markets if the answer is seen through the prisms of prices. China's crude imports will likely?recover' in August and September, as refiners have likely bought up the cargoes that were able to leave the Strait of Hormuz after the short ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. The market expected a return of normal Middle East supply and therefore, a glut. Benchmark Brent futures fell to $70.14 per barrel on July 2. They had been as high at $126.41 a barrel at the end April. The return of hostilities on Monday morning saw Brent rise to $90.80 per barrel. China's refiners will likely reduce imports as crude prices rebound. This means lower arrivals in October, given the time lag between cargoes being arranged and delivered. What happens to China's refined products exports is the wildcard. Beijing is confident that it will be able to survive on its huge stockpiles, estimated at?least 1 billion barrels. China could also be tempted by the opportunity to take advantage of high margins in Asia. Gasoil (the building block of diesel) ended July 17 at $143,03 per barrel, a $54.93 premium to the Brent closing prices and almost three times that $18.94 markup which?prevailed the day before U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran. Kpler has tracked shipments of light and medium distillates of 787,000 Bpd for July. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Brent oil reaches $90 as US and Iran intensify their attacks in Middle East
Brent oil prices jumped?3% Monday as the United States and Iran intensified their attacks in the?Middle East, which have?reduced energy shipments through the?Strait?of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose $2.69 or 3.05% to $90.79 at 2343 GMT. This is the highest Brent has reached since June 11. It also extends gains after it rose 15.9% last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $84.68 per barrel, up by $2.19 or?2.65%. This is the highest price since June 12. Last week, front-month prices rose 15.5%. This is the biggest weekly increase since early March. The Middle East conflict escalated this weekend, with the U.S. launching a ninth night in a row of attacks on Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. allies Kuwait & Bahrain also reported further Iranian strikes. Both sides have targeted shipping traffic in recent days. The U.S. has said it is enforcing an Iranian naval blockade, while Iran says it targets vessels that violate its rules for navigating the Strait of Hormuz. This area handles about one-fifth of all global oil trade. The United Kingdom Maritime Trading Operations? agency reported early Monday that a vessel was on fire north of Oman's Kumzar. In a recent?note, Barclays' analyst Amarpreet Singh said: "The coming weeks and days will give a better picture of what level of oil exports can be sustained from the region in the face of renewed dual blockades." As things stand, oil markets seem to be complacent when it comes to the possible fallout of inventories. These are the most tight in the last five years, as opposed at the start of the war. LSEG data shows that four vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz Sunday, down from eight the day before. The data shows that at least three oil product tankers and a Very Large Crude Carrier have entered the Strait of Hormuz since Friday in order to load oil. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul; Florence Tan)
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South32 Q4 copper output declines, missing market estimates
South32, a diversified Australian mining company, reported lower fourth quarter copper production on Monday. This was below market expectations, due to the 'impacts of 'inclement weather that continue to impede mining operations in Chile at the Sierra Gorda Project. Heavy rainfall in March caused access to an area of mining to be restricted. South32 announced that the 'operating costs for fiscal year 2027 will be around 10% higher than the forecasted financial year 2026 due to the timing of an earlier announced one-off?payment for the workforce and higher diesel prices. Sierra Gorda, located in Chile’s mineral-rich Antofagasta Region, is jointly owned by Polish state copper producer KGHM, with a stake of 55%, while South32 owns the remaining 45%. The joint venture approved the expansion of a fourth milling line to increase processing capacity by about 25%. Capital expenditures are expected to be around $725 million between 2027 and 3030. South32 reported payable output of copper of 16,000 metric tonnes from its stake in the project Sierra Gorda for the three-month period ended June 30. This is down from the previous?17.700 tons and below the Visible Alpha consensus estimation of 17,500 tons. (Reporting from Nikita Maria Jio and Jasmeen ara Shaikh in Bengaluru, Editing by Christian Schmollinger.)
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Wildfires on France's Mediterranean Coast force hamlet evacuations
Local authorities reported that a wildfire spread rapidly through several towns near Frejus, France, on Sunday. It threatened homes and forced the evacuation of several hamlets due to'strong winds' and drought conditions. BFM TV reported that local prefect Simon Babre said, "The fire spread very quickly in this heatwave and extreme dryness." Prefect's Office said that the fire had burned about 180 hectares (445 acres), by Sunday evening. Television images showed large flames behind hillside villas that are typical of the French Riviera. Thick black smoke billowed over pine and cypress trees. The fire forced the suspension of train services between Toulon, a Mediterranean port, and Les Arcs. World Meteorological Organization warned last month that sustained high temperatures and low humidity, combined with dry vegetation, would increase the risk of wildfires. According to Climate Monitor, according to 1961-1990, the average high temperature in the town of Les Arcs where the fire was burning was 38 degrees Celsius. This is 11.4 degrees above the normal high temperature for July 19. Reporting by Manon C.; Writing by Michel Rose, Paris Editing Tomasz J.owski
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Two earthquakes in Peru have left at least five dead and twenty injured
The civil defense chief of Peru said that at least five people died and 21 were injured after two earthquakes struck a mountainous region. According to Peru's National Seismological Center, in a post posted on X, the quakes measuring magnitudes 5.1 & 3.7 hit Saturday night in Chupaca Province in Junin Region, approximately 300 km east of Lima. The center reported that the first earthquake struck at a depth of 24 km (15miles) and the second one at 18 km. The ?European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre earlier reported that the first ?earthquake had a ?magnitude of 5.6. Luis Vasquez is the head of Peru's National Civil Defense Institute. He told Exitosa, a local radio station, that "so far, we have verified five deaths and twenty injuries." Vasquez said that according to preliminary reports, about?48 houses had been destroyed or damaged and another 18 homes were also affected. Around 300 people are now being provided with tents. The homes in 'Chupaca' are generally made of adobe block construction. Vasquez said that emergency crews and firefighters arrived early on Sunday to clear the debris, as they were concerned about additional victims being trapped. The Peruvian coast is located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, a region that accounts for 85% of all seismic activity in the world. (Reporting and editing by Chizu Nomiyama; Additional reporting in Bengaluru by Sumedha?Mukherjee)
Sudanese Army accuses Libyan Haftar forces border attack
Tuesday, the Sudanese Army accused the forces of eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Hastar of attacking Sudanese borders posts. This is the first time the army has directly accused its northern neighbour of involvement in the two-year conflict.
Multiple foreign countries have been drawn into the war between Sudan's military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (whom the military has also accused of being involved), while international efforts to bring about peace so far have failed.
Early in the war, Sudan accused Haftar from eastern Libya of supporting RSF through weapons deliveries. The Sudan has accused Haftar and his ally, the UAE, of also supporting the RSF. This includes direct drone attacks last month. The UAE denies these allegations.
Egypt, which also supports Haftar and the Sudanese Army, has supported them for a long time.
The army released a statement saying that the attack occurred in the triangle of Libya-Egypt-Sudan, a region to the north from one of the main frontlines of the war, al-Fashir - the capital of North Darfur.
Khaftar's Forces could not be immediately reached for comment.
The Sudanese Army said, "We will defend and protect our country, our national sovereignty and we will prevail regardless of the extent to which the United Arab Emirates, its militias and their conspiracy in the region will be supported." (Reporting and writing by Menna alaa el-Din; Khalid Abdelaziz, Jaidaa taha and Nafisa eltahir, Editing and rewriting by Kevin Liffey, Hugh Lawson and Nafisa eletahir)
(source: Reuters)