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Gold falls 3% after Fed Warsh comments increase rate hike bets
Gold prices reversed their course on Friday and fell over 3% as traders increased bets that interest rates would rise after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh made remarks about curbing inflationary forces. By 01:44 pm EDT (1744 GMT), spot gold had fallen 2.9% to $4,567.23 an ounce, its lowest price since August 20. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled ?2.9% lower at $4,529.9. Bullion is down 2.9% after today, a drop from its more than three-month high price of $4,696.18 on Tuesday. "Gold is being slapped as Chair Warsh confirms that inflation isn't slowing meaningfully and the Fed still has work to do." It may be once again a case of'speak out loud and carry a short stick,' but this will make the price of the September meeting look like a coin toss," said independent analyst Tai Wong. The traders increased their bets for a rate hike in September after Warsh stated that the Fed would "have to work" if they are not confident the underlying inflation will return to the 2% target. This is the closest Warsh has come to admitting interest rate increases may?be necessary to ease the price pressures. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now expect a U.S. interest rate increase in September. This is up from 36% before Warsh's remarks. They also see an 89% likelihood of an increase in December. In an environment of high interest rates, gold tends to lose its appeal as it provides no yield. Dollars rose to a record high of over a week, increasing the price of greenback bullion for holders of other currencies. This week, gold discounts in India fell as the market grew sceptical that the government might consider rolling back a recent increase in import duties. Spot silver dropped 3.5% to $66.21 per ounce. Platinum was down 0.6% to $1,835.07 while palladium rose 5.3% to $1422.25 an inch.
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Author of new study calls the myth that Robusta coffee is climate resilient a "myth".
In an interview, the lead author of the study called the widespread belief that Robusta coffee was more resistant to climate change than other varieties an "internet myth" that was based on flawed studies that ignored the crop's vulnerability and its inability to tolerate drought. Robusta coffee is often viewed as a cheap filler when compared to arabica beans. However, each year, millions of bags are shipped worldwide, with the majority coming from Brazil and Vietnam. The findings published in the Wiley journal Sustainable Development late Thursday are a challenge to those who advocate robusta as an alternative way of coping with 'climate change' in the coffee industry. Any reassessment on robusta's climate resilience will have implications for farmers, traders, and consumers as the demand for robusta increases around the globe. A Vietnamese coffee official said earlier this month that adapting climate change is no longer an issue for the future but a 'urgent necessity' to protect output. The robusta plant's high heat tolerance is often cited by the media, farmers, and researchers as the "coffee industry"s answer to climate change. However, a new paper published in Sustainable Development has found that these previous assessments are at best provisional. The paper cited errors in research, such as treating irrigated farmland as the best growing area. Aaron Davis, the lead author of the paper and senior research leader for crops and global changes at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew, said that the "internet myths" about Robusta being more resilient to climate change emerged a decade or so ago. Davis stated, "I found that it was troubling that some people were not interpreting science correctly and were advocating robusta to save the coffee industry from climate change." "Robusta can tolerate more heat than arabica but is not drought-tolerant." The paper concluded that Brazil, Vietnam, and India do not have the right climate to grow robusta. It recommended irrigation as a way to make sure the plants get enough water to be profitable. Previous?studies sought to highlight the robusta's resistance, suggesting that the beans were more resistant to a?drought. They also suggested that they are a boon to farmers. The paper stated that any expansion of robusta production must take into account the crop's vulnerability. It added that "growers" in certain regions already face serious problems with water availability for irrigation. The study concluded that relying solely on irrigation to ensure robusta's survival and profitability is fraught with inherent dangers. Davis stated that "the global coffee supply must undergo major structural and systematic changes if it is to survive for the long-term."
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Sources say that after drone attacks in late August, Russia's gas production dropped to 70% of the domestic demand.
According to two sources in the industry, Russia's gasoline production fell to 70% of its domestic consumption by the end August. This was after a series drone attacks forced major refineries into suspension of operations. Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russia's infrastructure to reduce Moscow's revenue. This has created a fuel shortage that has forced Russia import petroleum products, and maintain sales restrictions throughout the country. After a short respite in July when local authorities began to?ease or lift restrictions on fuel sale, shortages returned in Russian regions by August. According to sources, gasoline production dropped at the end August?to about the same level as in early July. This was at the height of the first wave, a fuel shortage that had been building since May. Regional authorities have again imposed restrictions. These include limits on the number of purchases per customer, and sales schedules based on vehicle plate numbers. Drivers have avoided non-essential journeys because they are afraid of waiting in long queues or running out fuel. Drones have struck several refineries in the past week and stopped their operations, including those located in Perm and Nizhny Novgorod, which are all major producers of motor fuel. Sources said that the emergency shutdowns increased the gap between gasoline supply and demand to about 35,000 tons per day. This means that the current production, at around 80,000 tonnes per day only compensates for 70% of the domestic demand. The average gasoline production in August was about 90,000 metric tons per day. This is equivalent to approximately 80% of the estimated'summer demand' of 115,000 metric tons per day. The Russian Energy Ministry has not responded to a comment request. Imports are increasing as a result of the fuel shortage. According to participants in the market, seaborne supplies from Asian nations are expected to reach 270,000 tons by?August. Meanwhile, gasoline imports from Belarus will be around 150,000 tonnes during the month. This is roughly 5,000 tons a day. According to?traders, 220,000 tons of 'imported gasoline' have arrived in Russia so far in August. This is an average of around 7,000 tonnes per day. The domestic market may be able to meet 85% of the demand in August with a daily average of 97,000 tons, as gasoline exports are banned until 31 January.
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Codelco, Chile's copper company, posts higher profit as output is impacted by mine disruptions
Chilean state-owned miner 'Codelco' reported sharply higher earnings in the first half of this year as higher copper prices offset lower?production, and higher costs. The company is now focusing on restoring productivity following setbacks to key mines. Codelco has reported a pre-tax profit for the first six months of 2026 of $1.97 Billion, a fourfold increase from the $429 M posted in the same time period last year. The company's own copper production dropped 11%, to 564,000 metric tonnes, from 634,000 tons the year before, due mainly to operational restrictions at El Teniente and lower output at Chuquicamata, as well as weaker ore grades in?Ministro Hales. Costs also increased due to the weaker output. Codelco's cash costs increased 7%, to 231.6 cents/pound. However, the realized copper price of 653.2 cents/pound was a significant increase from 461.7 cents/pound a year ago, helping to boost earnings. Codelco didn't mention its output forecast for 2026 in the report. The company had previously set a target of 1.33 to 1.36 millions tons for this year, but Chairman Bernardo Fontaine stated earlier this month that it was difficult to achieve. The results are a result of CEO Gomez's efforts to reverse years of?production declines? while dealing with?fallout? from operational disruptions?at El Teniente, and a review the miner’s investment priorities and its debt burden.
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South Africa's wheat crop is threatened by lack of rain
Farmers' group in South Africa said that a lack of rain in the Swartland wheat-growing region could cut this year's harvest. The area is already depleted due to reduced planting. They called on government support. Many farmers around the world have been experiencing arid conditions. This has led to warnings of food shortages and price inflation. Swartland has seen 79% less rain in winter between June and august, compared with the 10-year average. GrainSA reported that "grain producers face another extremely challenging production season. Some?farmers estimate as much as 25%-30% of their crop potential has already been lost. On top of this, a hectarage?decrease" may have occurred. Unfavorable weather and doubts about profitability GrainSA said that the country's wheat hectarage had?fallen to its lowest level in 97 years. Analysts claim that planting was reduced due to poor weather conditions, and in some cases farmers switched over to more profitable crops because costs increased faster than grain price. Crop Estimates Committee of the government forecasted on Thursday that 2026's wheat harvest will be 8% less at 1,76 million metric tonnes. Western Cape province, whose hectarage decreased by 9% in 2018, is expected to harvest 11% fewer wheat compared with 2025. South Africa imports about a similar amount of wheat to meet its domestic needs. It produces around 2?million tonnes annually. The majority of the wheat is planted in South Africa during winter. Swartland, which is in the Western Cape, is a region with heavy winter rains and produces most of South Africa's grain crop. GrainSA has asked the South African government to introduce affordable insurance for farmers. GrainSA CEO Tobias Doyer stated in a statement that the government cannot continue to view climate risk as the problem of farmers alone. "South Africa doesn't just lose a business when a producer fails. He added that we lose production capacity and employment, as well as skills, infrastructure, and a greater level of food-security resilience. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Nelson Banya)
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Executive says Congo's EGC is looking to battery makers after meeting cobalt quotas
EGC, the state-backed cobalt buyer in Congo, is looking to increase the market for traceable cobalt. This includes establishing closer ties with electric vehicle battery manufacturers. Congo is the largest producer of cobalt in the world, and small-scale suppliers are responsible for 15% to 25%. The government is stepping up its efforts to formalise this sector by introducing export quotas, and tightening oversight. Cobalt is a critical metal for the energy transition. Since Congo implemented the system in October last year, Entreprise Generale du Cobalt, established to channel artisanal supply chains into formal supply, has shipped 100 percent of its allocated export quota. This shows that the model can provide traceable supplies at commercial scale. Battery manufacturers and automakers are avoiding artisanal cobalt because of concerns over child labour and traceability. EGC's efforts to establish closer ties with end-users may open up a new market for Congo's cobalt. No unused quotas. Congo's cobalt miner say that complex?shipping regulations have made it difficult to fully utilise quota allotments, and regulator ARESCOM warns that unused quotas are forfeited. According to data from the government, Congo exported 696 725 metric tonnes of copper cathode, and 51 940 tons of cobalt hydroxide in the first quarter 2026. Saka, EGC's CEO, said that EGC exported 3,995 tonnes of cobalt-containing copper and 1,400 tons this year. This was a full use of its export allocations. EGC sells via Trafigura, Mercuria, and Traxys. However, it wants to work more closely with the end-users in order to better understand what they need for direct sales. Apple and other cobalt users faced U.S. lawsuits over Congo's artisanal industry, which sharpened the focus of the industry on responsible sourcing. Apple denied the allegations. Saka stated that EGC aims to show that the challenges of responsible sourcing and artisanal cobalt could be addressed. The company has 12 other partnerships in place and works with five cooperatives. EGC completed its first shipment via the Lobito Corridor by exporting 587 tonnes of cobalt cathodes and 500 tons through Angola. Saka noted that transit time dropped to five 'days' from 28 days via Dar es Salaam - and more than 30 via Durban. Saka, EGC's CEO, said that by exporting via multiple corridors EGC could offer its customers greater flexibility in terms of logistics and route options. The company is also preparing to expand the formalisation model for metallic ore, coltan.
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Executive says Congo's EGC is looking to battery makers after meeting cobalt quotas
A senior executive at Congo's EGC, the state-backed cobalt buyer, said that it was aiming to expand the market of traceable artisanal artisanal. This includes e-car battery manufacturers. Congo is the largest producer of cobalt in the world, and small-scale suppliers are responsible for 15% to 25%. The government is stepping up its efforts to formalise this sector by introducing export quotas, and tightening oversight. Cobalt is a critical metal for the energy transition. Since Congo introduced the system in October last year, Entreprise 'Generale du Cobalt, established to channel artisanal supply chains into formal supply, has shipped 100 percent of its export quota. This shows that the model can provide traceable supplies at commercial scale. Senior adviser Daniel 'Saka Mbumba stated. Battery manufacturers and automakers are avoiding artisanal cobalt because of concerns over child labour and traceability. EGC's efforts to establish closer ties with the end-users could open up a new market for Congo's cobalt. NO UNUSED QUOTAS Congo’s cobalt miner say that complex shipping quota rules have made it hard to fully utilise quota allotments, and regulator ARESCOM warned that unused quotas would be forfeited. According to data from the government, Congo exported 696 725 metric tonnes of copper cathode, and 51 940 tons of cobalt hydroxide in the first quarter 2026. Saka, EGC's CEO, said that EGC exported 3,995 tonnes of cobalt-containing copper and 1,400 tons this year. This was a full use of its export allocations. EGC sells via Trafigura, Mercuria, and Traxys. However, it wants to work more closely with the end-users in order to better understand what they need for direct sales. Apple and other end-users of?cobalt faced U.S. lawsuits over Congo's artisans sector, which sharpened industry focus on responsibly sourcing. Apple denied the allegations. Saka said EGC wanted to show that the challenges of responsible sourcing and artisanal cobalt could be addressed. The company has 12 other partnerships in place and works with 5?cooperatives. EGC completed its first shipment via the Lobito Corridor. It exported 587 tons cobalt cathodes and 500 tons copper through Angola. Saka stated that the transit time dropped to five days, from 28 days via Dar es Salaam - and more than 30 via Durban. This highlights the logistical advantage of 'the Lobito Corridor. Saka, EGC's CEO, said that by exporting via multiple corridors EGC could offer its customers greater flexibility in terms of logistics and route options. The company is also preparing to expand the formalisation model for metallic ore, coltan.
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Gold prices steady ahead of Fed chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address
Investors held off on placing large bets in anticipation of the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, hoping to get clues about the central bank's future policy. By 1302 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.02% to $4,600.07 an ounce. The price of gold had reached a record high of $4696.18 in the past three months, after the U.S. Treasury announced support measures for long-duration bonds. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.3% to $4642.90. Fawad Rasaqzada is a Forex.com market analyst. He said that traders were 'not willing' to take large positions ahead of Kevin Warsh’s remarks. This explains the reason why markets haven’t moved much in recent times. Fed officials expressed their concerns on the U.S. Inflation landscape Thursday as central bankers met in Jackson Hole. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both reiterated that interest rates could need to be raised to curb inflation. The comments were made a day after the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, a key indicator of inflation for the central banks, showed that it stood at 3.7% over the 12-month period ending in July. According to CME FedWatch, traders see a 36% probability of an increase in U.S. interest rates in September. Warsh will speak at 1400 GMT. In an environment of high interest rates, gold tends to lose its appeal as it provides no yield. "To me, it appears that investors are looking for alternative currencies, or currencies with a better fiscal discipline, than the U.S ..... If we can get the parts back up to $4,600, where a little struggle has been seen this week, from there, gold could easily rise towards the $5,000 level," Razaqzada stated. The price of gold in India fell sharply this week as the market speculated that the government might consider reversing a recent increase in import duties. Silver spot rose by 2.02%, to $70.65 an ounce. Platinum was up 2%, at $1,882.70, and palladium rose 6.2%, to $1,434.25 per ounce. All three metals are on course to record weekly gains. (Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
Moody's changes Nigeria's outlook from 'negative' to 'positive'
Moody's ?on Friday revised Nigeria's outlook ?to "positive" from "stable", citing the country's improved ability ?to withstand ?external shocks ?due to ?its increased foreign exchange reserves and stronger-than-expected economic growth.
Africa's third largest economy, which is also a major oil exporter, has benefited from the rise in crude prices caused by the Middle East conflict, as well as the increase in refined petroleum products exported, boosting its current account surplus.
Moody's expects that the West African nation's excess "will?remain substantial even with materially lower oil prices."
The World Bank projected Nigeria's economy to grow by 4.2% in 2026. They also said that fiscal discipline, tighter monetary policy, and higher oil revenues could help to?strengthen the macroeconomic stability of Nigeria and contain inflation.
Moody's has confirmed the country's rating at "B3", as it reflects fiscal pressures due to limited revenue generation?capacity and weak debt affordability.
In May, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria's sovereign rating from "B-" to "B", citing improved creditworthiness and sustained structural reforms. A month earlier, Fitch had affirmed Nigeria's "B" rating with a stable outlook.
(source: Reuters)