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How financial markets have been affected by the Middle East conflict in six months

How financial markets have been affected by the Middle East conflict in six months
How financial markets have been affected by the Middle East conflict in six months

The U.S.-Israeli bombings of Iran six months ago triggered a global conflict that disrupted energy supplies and sent ripples throughout global financial markets.

Below are charts that show the impact of the conflict on?oil prices, food prices, safe-haven assets, and equities.

1 COSTLY ENERGIA

As Gulf production was disrupted, and shipments through Strait of?Hormuz were curtailed, oil prices soared. Brent crude briefly reached $120 in April, and will still average about $90 by 2026. This is up from $70 in the previous year.

The biggest impact was on refined fuels. Diesel prices are rising more rapidly due to a shortage of middle distillates and Russian refinery shutdowns caused by Ukrainian attacks.

The Gulf was a major source of jet fuel, but a surge in U.S. exports and refinery production helped to ease the supply concerns.

The upcoming winter in the northern hemisphere could see further disruptions to Hormuz shipments, along with threats to Russia's energy grid. This would likely increase heating oil prices and inflationary pressures.

2 AI BOOM STOCKS

The AI sector, which has received trillions of dollars in investment, has helped to boost global stocks.

The MSCI 47-country index of world stocks has reached a record high of $105 trillion this month. It is up almost $7 trillion or 9% since the outbreak in war. However, the Gulf region's stocks have not performed as well.

Fidelity Analyst Pranav Aggarwal stated that the rally was a sign of investors taking a more "relaxed" view and expecting the war to be over this year.

He said, "Equities have had a pretty good year." "They are up about 14% (for the year). "If we expect 8%-9% growth in a normal year, 14% through August is pretty impressive."

3 GOING IN SEARCH OF SAFETY

The traditional safe-haven assets, like highly rated government bond, gold, and the US dollar, have not consistently performed as such.

Analysts said that the dollar's?rise of 1.4% against a basket major currencies has occurred since?the beginning of the war, but much of this is due to the Japanese yen’s weakness.

U.S. Treasuries, a mainstay of portfolios for decades, have fallen 3.5% in total returns as inflationary pressures have shattered U.S. rate-cut bets. Recent concerns over the new Federal Reserve Chief Kevin Warsh's plans to buy back debt and Washington’s recent surprise debt buyback plan have also weighed.

The price of gold fell by nearly 25% from the beginning of the conflict to July, despite the fact that it had tripled since 2022, when Western powers frozen Russia's central banks reserves due to the invasion of Ukraine. Gold prices have risen by more than 15 percent this month amid renewed fears about the devaluation of the dollar.

Food and Fertilizers

Fertiliser, an important input in global food production, has been affected by the closure of Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts say that the shock is a threat to agricultural production, especially when combined with the strong El Nino weather pattern and the recent disruptions in grain shipments due to the conflict in Ukraine.

According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, food prices increased in July by more than 3 years. Experts warn that the full impact of this is still to come.

FAO warned that the world may be headed towards another bout of inflation. JPMorgan estimates a strong El Nino could increase global food inflation to 0.7% at its peak.

Impacts are likely to be most acute in Asia, Latin America, and Africa, where households spend more of their income on food, and policymakers are wary of new price pressures.

5 GULF CLUBBED

The Gulf region has suffered a direct blow. Saudi Arabia's exports dropped by 10% between the first and second quarters. JPMorgan believes that Dubai's real estate sales have plummeted by 70% to 80%. Oxford Economics predicts that Qatar's economy is going to shrink by almost 30% this year due the damage done to its Ras Laffan Gas Facility.

Qatar and UAE stock prices have both fallen around 14%, a drop of more than 20 points compared to world stock prices. Both countries' insurance costs against default have also increased, but Bahrain is the hardest hit as its credit default swaps prices are up by almost 40%. Reporting by Karin Strohecker & Marc Jones. Mark Potter edited the article.

(source: Reuters)