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After Russia's ban, Turkey increases diesel imports from the US and India
Shipping data shows that Turkey increased its diesel imports from the United States and India to record levels in August. This was due to a Russian ban of diesel exports, and to wider disruptions caused by Iran's war. According to Kpler, the commodities data firm, Turkey has imported Indian diesel at a rate of more than 120.000 barrels per day, while its imports from the U.S. have reached 90,000 barrels per daily. Kpler data dating back to 2017 shows that these volumes are the highest monthly totals ever recorded. After Ukrainian strikes on refineries disrupted the domestic supply, Russia has banned diesel exports until at least the end August. Middle Eastern'supplies' have been curtailed by damage caused to oil refineries in the region and reduced shipping through Strait of Hormuz. Abhishek Kumar, an analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that the Russian refineries are currently experiencing disruptions. Energy Aspects also provides data on energy flows. It estimated that India shipped a smaller amount, 74,000 bpd, to Turkey in August, and the U.S. sent 70,000 bpd. These are still the highest levels since?data from EA shows that 2022 and 2019 respectively. Kpler data shows that Turkey's imports from Russia of diesel fell to around 100,000 bpd (in July) and 80,000 bpd (in August), after having been above 200,000 bpd since January. In August, Russia's share in Turkey's imports of diesel fell to 20%. According to Turkey's energy regulator, in 2025, Russia will?supply 85% of Turkey?s diesel imports, with 281,000 bpd. According to sources in the industry, Russia could extend its diesel export ban until September. Reporting by Enes Tunagur in London. Editing by Alex Lawler, Barbara Lewis and Barbara Lewis.
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The Russian rouble is expected to continue its decline against the dollar.
The Russian rouble fell sharply against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday. It lost more than 2%. China's currency, the yuan, also hit multi-month lows as a result of fading tax-related support amid rising imports and lower oil prices. Analysts have predicted that August will be the weakest rouble month of the year so far, due to the Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure, which are driving up the imports for fuel and equipment for refinery repair, increasing the domestic demand for foreign currency. The rouble was supported earlier in the week by exporters who sold?foreign currency revenue before Friday's monthly taxes. But on Thursday, it fell to 12.879 against the yuan at the Moscow exchange. This is its lowest level since?February?2025. According to LSEG, the euro lost 2.3% against the dollar to reach 86.30. This is its lowest level since March. In a recent note, Bank Saint Petersburg analysts said that the falling oil price put pressure on Russian currency. Most exporters probably had already sold enough foreign-currency income to pay taxes. Oil prices have been falling for a number of days this week. However, they started to rise on Thursday when traders weighed the lingering risk of oil supply disruptions from the Middle East against signs of diplomatic progress with Iran. After the tax deadline, the rouble could continue to lose value. One broker from a major Russian Bank said that it could weaken to?88 or 89 per dollar in the near future. Andrey Zatepin, analyst at Alor Broker, said that the decline could be accelerated in the first few days of September. (Reporting and writing by the Moscow bureau; Editing and proofreading by Timothy Heritage).
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Nepal and China warn about fresh flood dangers with lakes that are bursting.
Both Nepal and China warned of new 'risks of floods in the Himalayas on Thursday, as two lakes that have formed on either side their border are threatening to 'burst. This is a region still coping with last week’s devastating?flood. Nearly 1,000 people are still missing, and search and rescue operations continue in the debris-strewn hillsides and valleys. The flood that struck Nepal's border region with China's Tibet on Wednesday killed at least 362. Both countries blame the flood on the collapse of a glacier that sent rock, ice and debris into mountain river systems. Nepal's disaster authority issued a warning on Thursday that a lake created by debris blocking a stream at the flood site was rising and could burst. The authority warned residents of the lower bank, passengers, and rescuers involved in rescue operations to stay away from the river banks and dangerous areas. China has warned that over the next 3 days it expects to see 3 million cubic meters -- or 1,200 Olympic-sized swimming pools -- flow into a dammed lake along its border. This will create a high-risk of breach. The peak flow is expected around September 1. Chinese state media, citing the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources, said that the forecasted rains for the next week would exacerbate this threat. Zhu Jinfeng is a researcher in the hydrology department of the Ministry of Water Resources. He told CCTV that the volume and risk are both increasing. On Thursday, some rescue workers in Nepal started moving to higher ground after heeding the warning. Pawan Koirala was one of them. He and his team of 13 began to move away from the riverbed after the warning?was given. He said, "We're here to rescue you and don't want to go near the danger zone." Reporting by Saurabh Singh in Trishuli; Sakshi dayal in New Delhi; Xiuhao chen in Beijing; Writing by Sakshi - Editing by YPrajesh & Gareth Jones
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Three people are killed in Gaza by Israeli strikes, say medics
Health officials reported that Israeli airstrikes killed at least three Palestinians on Thursday in the Gaza Strip. Medical personnel?said that an israeli airstrike killed one person in Qarara, a town located in the southern Gaza Strip. Another strike killed a man in a house at the Beach Refugee Camp in Gaza City. They said that another airstrike was launched on Gaza City on Thursday, which killed a driver. The Israeli military has not yet commented on any of the incidents. A U.S.-backed ceasefire in October 2025 halted major fighting, but failed to stop Israeli strikes, which the military claimed were aimed at preventing attacks by Hamas or other Gaza militants. Hamas accuses Israel for violating the ceasefire, and undermining the efforts of U.S. president Donald 'Trump to 'implement a wider plan to end the Gaza Conflict which includes Israeli withdrawals?and Hamas dearmament. Gazan health officials claim that more than 1,300 Palestinians were killed since the ceasefire took effect in October last year, while Israeli military claims four Israeli soldiers died. Nidal al-Mughrabi reports from Cairo.
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After devastating flash floods, global aid is heading to Nepal
As a result of the devastating flash flood that left hundreds dead and more than 1,000 people missing, countries and organizations around the world have started sending cash and relief supplies to 'Nepal. This is the list of all aid and assistance that has been announced and provided so far. China: China coordinated emergency supplies to Nepal and provided cash assistance, China's ambassador to Nepal stated in a social media post. India has dispatched nearly 50 metric tonnes of disaster relief supplies in two tranches. These include temporary shelters and blankets as well as hygiene kits, medicines and lamps. SOUTH KOREA : South Korea's foreign minister announced on X that the country has?already sent a response team and will send a disaster relief?team, as well as $1 million of humanitarian?assistance via international organizations. UNITED KINGDOM Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced that the?UK offered to send emergency responders along with PS5 millions ($6.79million) in aid to Nepal. EUROPEAN UNION : Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that she was ready to "mobilise additional European assistance" on X. UNITED STATES : According to the State Department, the U.S. is sending a disaster-response adviser and $500,000 in funds to Nepal. UNITED NATIONS - UN teams and partners are mobilizing personnel and supplies to help Nepal deal with the floods, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres announced on?X. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies: The federation announced that it is releasing $1.24 million in emergency funding for the Nepal Red Cross Society to help with flood relief. WHO Nepal reported on X that the WHO had dispatched emergency medical supplies including multi-purpose tents and medicines. Local newspaper Kantipur reported that the World Bank's country director had told Nepal's Finance Ministry that emergency aid of 25 billion rupees (163.55 million dollars) could be provided. A French aid group announced that an emergency medical team was on its way to Nepal in order to provide immediate assistance.
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Russell: Crude oil imports from Asia remain soft in August, despite US claims about the Hormuz blockade
Asia's crude oil imports in August were still far below levels before the Iran conflict. This raises further questions about how much crude actually leaves the Middle East. According to Kpler's data, the top-importing continent will see an arrival of 23,12 million barrels per day (bpd) this August. This is a slight decrease from July, when 23.36 million bpd were expected. Imports have also fallen by almost?4 million bpd or 14% from the average of 26,91 million bpd for the three-month period ending in February. The United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran on 28 February, prompting Tehran to respond by launching missiles and drones against U.S. infrastructure and bases across the Gulf. This led to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz which was responsible for the movement of nearly 20% of crude and refined oil and products in the world before the war. The U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright's claim that oil exports from the Middle East have nearly returned to pre-conflict numbers is challenged by the still low arrival of crude in Asian ports. It is obvious that there is a delay between the time crude leaves the Middle East and when it reaches ports in Asia. But if Wright's claim that "nearly 15,000,000 bpd" is leaving, then it is logical that deliveries will reflect an increase. Wright has not provided specifics for his claims. However, he stated in early August that flows from the Strait of Hormuz were 9 million barrels per day over an unspecified period of seven days. This brings the total Middle East exports up to 15 million barrels per day when the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman shipments are included. Kpler's ability to track ships using satellites and AIS data was the most impressive. It was able to observe 4.26 million bpd of vessels leaving the Strait of Hormuz during any given week in August. Kpler has tracked the exports of crude oil via the Strait of Hormuz for the entire month of August. This is down from the 4.49 million barrels per day in July, and the 15.82 million barrels per day in the three-month period leading up to U.S. INDIA FLOWS India is the major importer closest to the Middle East. Any sharp increase in exports would be seen first in Indian port arrivals, as the journey time from the Gulf of Oman up to India's West Coast is less than a week. Kpler estimates that India's crude imports in August were 4.51 million barrels per day, down from the 5.07 million barrels per day of July, and at their lowest level since March. Arrivals to the Middle East are estimated at 1,45 million bpd. This is down from July's 1,50 million bpd but still just under half the 2,88 million bpd that was the average over the last three months. The import data indicates that there are no exports to India if the Middle East is experiencing a strong economic recovery. In August, Asia saw an increase in the number of barrels per day (bpd) imported from the Middle East. This was up from 10.76 million bpd during July. Asia's imports of goods from the Middle East are up from 7.01 million bpd (the lowest Kpler records dating back to 2013), but still lower than the 15.82 millions bpd during the three months prior to the beginning of the conflict. Arrivals in July and Augurary were also likely boosted due to cargoes that had left the Middle East during the brief ceasefire that took place between the U.S.A. and Iran in mid-June and early July. If 15 million barrels per day of crude oil have been leaving the Middle East from early August onwards, then a large portion of that will not be visible until September, particularly in countries that require longer travel times, such as Japan and South Korea. As yet, there's?no indication that Asia's crude oil imports from the Middle East have returned to their pre-Iran conflict levels. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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India's BPCL looks at buying Gulf oil FOB and lifts Iraqi crude oil
Bharat Oil Corp, India will receive its first Iraqi cargo of this fiscal year within the next few weeks. It is also 'willing' to take more oil on board from Gulf suppliers on a "free-on-board" basis if ships are readily available. "Fortunately, we?got?the vessel. "One vessel owner was willing to move the product to Fujairah to do the STS transfer (ship-to ship)," Vetsa Ramakrishna said at a press conference following the annual shareholders meeting. Iraq is one of the most affected countries by the Iran War and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway, which supplies about a fifth of the world's energy, has also been attacked. Gupta stated that BPCL needs?2 millions barrels of Iraqi crude oil each month. He added that the vessel had crossed the Strait of Hormuz and the crude was expected to reach refineries within the next few days. He refused to name the vessel. Iraq offered a "sharp discount" of between $25 and $30 per barrel compared to Dubai benchmarks for its August-loading Basrah crude oil in order to entice buyers to pick up cargoes at terminals inside the Strait of Hormuz. Gupta stated that his company would be willing to lift cargoes inside the Strait of Hormuz, if the insurance costs were reasonable and the shipowner was willing to accept the risk. "Even if the cargo is held for 30 to 45 extra days, we will still explore it if there are commercially viable reasons." he said. Impact of New US Bill The U.S. Senate has passed a bill that allows the president to impose tariffs up to 100 percent on major buyers of Russian gas and oil, including India. This will increase economic pressure against?Moscow for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Senator who sponsored a bill to impose broad-ranging sanctions against Russia expressed his hope on Wednesday that the House of Representatives would approve it next month. Gupta stated that BPCL had made crude arrangements for 'September and is procuring products for October. India is India's largest oil importer. Sanjay Khanna, chairman of the Oil Companies Association, said that a ban on this quantity would make it "a challenge" for oil companies in order to meet demand and secure crude. He said that on average, Russian oil meets between 35% and 45% of India’s oil requirements. "It's a very unsettling situation." Khanna stated that nobody knows what will happen next week. (Reporting and editing by Alexandra Hudson. Nidhi verma)
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The death toll in the fire at Russia's Amur Gas Chemical Complex has reached 15
The 'Amur Gas Chemical Complex', located in Russia's Far East, announced on Thursday that the death toll from a fire which broke out earlier this week was now 15. The plant announced on Wednesday that six Chinese citizens were among the seven victims of the fire. In a Thursday?Telegram, it said that 14 of the 15 victims were foreigners without revealing their nationalities. The report said that 39 people are still?in hospital, nine of whom were airlifted to Moscow. The complex is a joint venture between Sinopec and Sibur, a Chinese oil and gas firm. It claims to be one of the largest polyethylene and polyester producers in the world. The complex had not yet commenced operations, but was preparing to begin production. The plant stated that construction and preparation for operations will continue at the unaffected facilities. The Investigative Committee of Russia has stated that it is investigating the incident as a possible breach of industrial safety regulations. It is also working to determine the cause of the fire. The Amur Gas Chemical Complex is expected to produce 2.3 million metric tonnes of polyethylene per year and 400,000 metric tons polypropylene. (Reporting and Editing by Andrew Osborn, Louise Heavens).
Andy Home: The US needs more aluminum -- and it needs to have it now.
Donald Trump said that the U.S. needs more aluminum "desperately". He was speaking at a virtual rally in support of Mike Mazzei who had just been nominated by the Republican Party for Governor of Oklahoma. A massive new smelter is being built in Oklahoma by a joint-venture between U.S. aluminum producer Century Aluminum and Emirates Global Aluminium. The $500 million federal funding is backing the project, which is just what Trump wanted when he raised aluminium import tariffs to 50% last June.
Even if the construction of the Inola plant begins according to schedule at the end of 'this year', it will not begin producing hot steel until at least three years from now.
It is a long wait for the Pentagon.
WAR GAMES
In July of last year, the Department of Defense (DoD), ran a wargame to test the nation's aluminum resilience in the case of a major conflict in 2027.
The aluminium industry, its associations and government departments were represented by 80 participants.
The obvious policy options were also included, including building new smelters and renovating older ones. The authors of the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA's) report on this exercise stated that all of these options would improve "overall outcomes for the aluminum industry".
They warned that none of the short-term aluminum and HPA requirements would be met by the DoD within two years.
HPA is short for high-purity aluminum, and this causes particular concern for Pentagon planners.
PRECISION HIT
HPA is used as an alloy in many of the Pentagon’s most important systems.
According to a DLA report, there is only one HPA producer in the United States, so the Pentagon is heavily dependent on imports. The majority of these are from the United Arab Emirates. Or, at least, they did before?Iran attacked EGA's Al Taweelah Smelter in March. EGA announced Wednesday that the smelter was being repaired and that a quarter its electrolytic cell are now operational.
The U.S. imports of metals from the UAE has dropped dramatically since the attack, and it will be some time before the smelter is back to full capacity.
Ironically, the DoD conducted a second wargame that only included government participants. The scenario examined was disruptions at Alcoa smelter's in New York, and Arconic HPA's plant in Iowa.
The scenarios didn't include an attack on the biggest overseas supplier of HPA for the U.S. Military.
Stockpiling HPA alloys and HPA has become more difficult.
COMPETITION
The Pentagon's HPA problem is part of a larger issue. The task of restoring the capacity for U.S. aluminum production is long-term. The market is in need of more metal right now.
Tariffs have had a modest impact on domestic production.
Century has restored full production at its Mount Holly Smelter in South Carolina by reactivating 50,000 tons per year of capacity.
Magnitude 7 Metals will reopen a smelter from the 1970s in Missouri, after it was closed in 2024. By the end of this year, Magnitude 7 Metals plans to restart the first potline that produces 75,000 tons per annum. According to the?Aluminum Association, there has been a lot of investment in recycling capacities, a part of the supply chain where job growth exceeded 20% between 2024-2026.
The domestic supply gap is still large. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. import dependency was 60% in 2013.
The U.S. Midwest premium, the additional price that U.S. buyers pay over the London Metal Exchange prices is a clear indication of the stress. The CME spot price premium is $2467 per tonne, which is about $850 higher per tonne than the implied 50% tariff.
Loss of production in the Gulf triggered a global scramble for materials, and U.S. purchasers find themselves competing with Europe and Asia?for spare parts.
Ask a friend
The Trump administration has just announced a new aluminium smelter incentives in the form a 25% reduced import tariff to anyone who builds, expands or renovates domestic smelter capacities. Canada will not get the same reduction as anticipated after trade talks failed, resulting in tariff escalation instead of de-escalation.
In recent months, the?country has increased its volumes in Europe and is still the biggest supplier of primary aluminum to the U.S.
Morgan Stanley analysts say that even if Canada exported its entire production across the border it would not be enough to make up for the U.S. deficit. The Midwest premium would still reflect the fact that the marginal import ton is subject to a tariff of 50%.
The DLA report points out that Canada offers a short-term solution for the aluminium problem of U.S. military planners.
A memorandum of understanding between Canada and the U.S. includes an arrangement that prioritizes U.S. defence purchases if the U.S. needs to increase aluminium production in the event of a major conflict.
However, the Pentagon might have to be a little more polite.
Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)