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Andy Home: China Primes Rare Earths Weapon as Trade War Escalates

Beijing targets the critical supply chains of the United States as U.S. President Donald Trump increases tariffs on China.

The trade war has already engulfed strange and wonderful metals like antimony, germanium, and gallium. China has restricted exports and banned sales to the United States.

Beijing just added seven rare earths, which are dual-use minerals, to its list of restricted exports.

China's greatest metallic weapon is rare earths. China has a tight grip on the global supply chain, from mining and processing to manufacturing permanent magnets used in laptops, electric cars and fighter jets.

CRU, a research institute, estimates that China provides around 90% of all rare earth magnets in the world. This is a problem because the magnets are now also on the export list.

Metals that are invisible

Rare earths, which are subject to new export restrictions, are used in all modern technology.

Consider, for example, yttrium. Compounds of yttrium are used for everything from microwave radar to jet engines, super-conductors to dentistry.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey it is produced in only 20,000 metric tonnes a year. However, tiny amounts are found just about everywhere.

The Ministry of Finance has added six more metals to its watch list.

Their use in permanent magnets is the one thing that they all have in common. Dysprosium, terbium and cobalt are added to neodymium magnetic materials in order to improve their performance.

Magnets are the backbone of modern life and their inclusion in China's list for export controls is a big red flag to everyone else.

On the Watch List

The dual-use watchlist does not automatically result in export bans, but it can.

This also allows Chinese authorities the ability to exclude buyers who are involved in military supply chain, especially U.S. military supplies chains.

The Chinese exports of gallium and germanium to the United States ceased months before the ban was fully implemented in December 2024. This suggests that licenses for exporting to what used to be a major market had already been refused.

The market impact is explosive, and can vary depending on how strict the export controls are.

Since China stopped exporting antimony to the United States, the price of this metal has increased from $14,000 per ton to almost $60,000.

Since February, the price of bismuth has risen from $6 per kilogram to $40 per kg.

Rare earths are not new. China's 2010 ban on exports of rare earths to Japan caused a price spike that led to China losing its trade case with the World Trade Organization.

STILL DOMINANT

This warning was largely ignored by the world. China has maintained its grip on the market for rare earths even after 15 years.

Around 60% of the global production is mined in Myanmar, which is also the second largest producer.

China controls almost 90% of the global production of rare earths at the processing stage.

Mountain Pass, which is the only large-scale rare earths mine operating in the United States sends a significant amount of its output to China, where it undergoes the difficult process of separation and refinement.

Mountain Pass produces mainly light rare earths, not the heavy rare Earths that China has threatened.

Project Blue, a consultancy, says that the Serra Verde Mine in Brazil is the only significant producer of heavy metals outside of China and Myanmar. It's not hard to guess where the mine sends its production to be processed.

COUNTDOWN

Western countries are only now realizing their dependence on China in the production of rare earth magnets.

In the United States as well as Europe, there are multiple projects underway to increase production capacity through new mines or recycling.

Few are even close to commercial production, and very few can compete against China's rare-earth giants. This leaves the West vulnerable to China export threats.

Exporters will be forced to apply for new licenses as a result of the new export restrictions on rare earths.

These sales may also be a sign of a wider decline in Chinese supplies as the Chinese authorities cease to sell to Western buyers who are involved in the military supply chain.

A rare earths ban is likely to be held in reserve until further notice.

As the trade war escalates between China and the United States, it's clear that the rare-earth time bomb is ticking.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)