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Gold safe-haven gains after Trump's retaliatory tariffs

Gold prices rose on Wednesday, as traders sought out the safe-haven after U.S. President Donald Trump’s "reciprocal tariffs" came into force. A weaker dollar and a rising expectation of U.S. interest rate cuts also helped.

As of 0819 GMT, spot gold was up 2.1%, at $3,047.68 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 2.5% to $3 066.20.

Gold priced in greenbacks is now cheaper for foreign buyers, thanks to the U.S. Dollar index's 0.4% decline.

Trump's tariffs went into effect at 0401 GMT. They included a duty of 104% on Chinese goods. This heightened concerns over a global recession and trade war. China will hold a high level meeting to respond to the tariffs, and its central bank has asked state banks to reduce their dollar purchases.

Trade war worries are impacting the U.S. economic outlook. Market participants have begun to price in several rate reductions by the U.S. Fed for this year," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

In the next few months, we expect gold to continue moving upwards to $3200/oz.

Nearly 60% traders expect the Fed to start cutting rates as soon as May. In a low-interest rate environment, zero-yield gold tends to flourish.

The markets are waiting for the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, which will be held later today. They also await the U.S. Consumer Price Index on Thursday.

"CPI is less relevant, since the focus will be how tariffs affect inflation in the coming months. Staunovo explained that the Fed's dual mandate means we could still see a rate cut this year if the U.S. economic situation begins to deteriorate.

The spot gold price has continued to grow on the gains of last year, rising more than $400 in 2025. It reached a record-high of $3,167.57, on April 3, 2019.

World Gold Council data shows that gold-backed exchange traded funds recorded the largest quarterly inflows in three years between January and March 2025.

Spot silver rose 1.3%, to $30.22 per ounce. Platinum increased 0.3%, to $924.10; and palladium rose 0.7%, to $912.74.

(source: Reuters)