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Japan's Nikkei falls as earnings and election momentum fade
The Nikkei?average in Japan fell on Tuesday, as investors took a profit amid few new trading cues. Meanwhile, the post-election excitement was fading and the earnings season was coming to a close. The Nikkei closed at 56,566.49, down 0.4% on the day. It has fallen 1.9% in four sessions. The Topix, which is a broader measure of the market, fell 0.7% to 3,761.55. Ryotaro sawada is a senior analyst at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory. "We are seeing some technical profiteering." After touching 72 on Friday, the Nikkei's RSI (relative strength index) for 14 days is now at 64. A level of?above 70% indicates that gains have been stretched too far. LSEG data show that the earnings season in the fourth largest economy of the world is winding down. A little more than half of Nikkei companies have beaten analysts' expectations. The post-general-election rally from last week, following fiscal dove Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory, also appeared to fade, Sawada said. The Nikkei benchmark index is up almost 13% so far this year on the back of expectations that Takaichi will cut taxes and spend a lot. However, some analysts feel these gains are too rapid. SoftBank Group shares fell 5.1% and weighed down the index by 187. Stocks of the 'technology and investment conglomerate,' have been fluctuating between gains and losses in recent sessions. NEC, a provider of information technology services, lost 4.7%. Taiyo Yuden, a manufacturer of smartphone components, saw its shares rise by?8.7% and become Nikkei’s top gainer. Sumitomo Pharma's shares soared 7.2% after rising as high as 10.7%. Murata MFG rose 6.9%. The Nikkei Index had 100 advancers and 125 decliners. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Harikrishnan Nair and Satoshi Sugiyama)
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Helen Jewell: Finding global equity value in unexpected locations
While 2026 is off to a rough start in terms of geopolitics, many equity investors around the world are still trying to find bargains. There are still some pockets of potential value for those who are willing to look outside the U.S. You might not expect to find them. Last year at this time, European and emerging markets equities traded below their historical valuation ranges. But after a strong 12 month run, these broad discounts have mostly disappeared and now most major indices look fully valued. Price pullbacks are likely to occur in a year with high valuations and increased geopolitical tensions. This will increase investor interest for value, with a growth outlook that is reasonable. Here is a tour of the world to show where equity investors can find that. EUROPE In Europe, defence stocks were the biggest winners in 2025. The sector's index rose nearly 140% as NATO members committed to higher military expenditure amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The sector has had a strong return over the past few years, but there is still value to be found. The price-to earnings ratio of 30 may seem high, but after adjusting for expected growth in earnings using the "PEG ratio", they are no longer excessive. This metric, at 1.5, is lower than it was in 2017, just before the full-scale invasion. It's also well below the average of U.S. counterparts, whose valuations are near their long-term highs. Many banks in Europe are still attractively priced, even though the European Banking Index has gained more than 300% in the last five years. The price-to earnings ratio is still lower than the long-term average, and also below that of U.S. or Japanese counterparts. It is important to note that European banks have become a "crowded sector," which means many investors worldwide are overweighting the sector. Many investors may be tempted to sell their positions if the European Central Bank were to cut interest rates again. But given the current valuations, potential shareholder returns, and AI-boosted cost efficiency, there are still attractive opportunities. BRITAIN The FTSE 100 in the UK reached a new record at the beginning of 2026. It had outperformed the U.S. by five percentage points in?2025. Britain's large cap index trades at about 40% less than the U.S. That's largely because the FTSE 100 is dominated by banks and mining companies, not the big-tech or ?pure artificial-intelligence plays that dominate U.S. indices. UK banks trade at a significant discount to their U.S. peers. British miners will also benefit from the high price of precious metals, even after recent ructions. They'll also be able to take advantage of the long-term demand in copper due to electrification and energy transition. The mining sector may experience market volatility if companies do not maintain strict capital discipline, or if they fail to distribute profits to their shareholders via dividends. Opportunities to find value seem to increase as one decreases in market cap. The UK's small-cap valuations have been the lowest in the last two decades, both on an absolute and relative basis. Goldman Sachs says that only Mexican stocks are trading at a greater discount to their historical valuations. A catalyst is needed to re-rate, of course. The Bank of England's interest rate reductions could be the catalyst to move these UK stocks again. The market expects that the BoE will cut rates twice by 2026. However, the sector may rally if there are signs of more easing. Emerging markets are not popular with investors. But that is exactly why they could be the perfect place to bargain hunt. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the region represents 7% of the global GDP but only 0.7% of MSCI All Country World Index. Brazil is one country that stands out. Brazil's stock market, however, is trading at a discount of 10%. There are reasons to be optimistic about the future. Brazil's economy looks healthy. The composite PMI has been rising steadily over the last four months. The country's 15% key interest rate - its highest in twenty years - will drop by 300 basis points as early as 2026. This is likely to benefit highly leveraged companies in the retail sector and finance sector - two areas that are not well liked by global investors. This source of EM values may be a good counterweight to the tech-heavy portion of the benchmark which includes countries such as South Korea and Taiwan. Investor sentiment towards Latin America may remain depressed. This is exacerbated by political volatility, which is a factor that EM investors should always take into account. The first month of 2026 has been a very eventful year, and the United States is often in the middle of it all. Investors will be looking to diversify their portfolios to better prepare themselves for the geopolitical and economic gyrations that this year may bring. You like this column? 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MORNING BID EUROPE - Quiet markets and loud diplomacy : all eyes on Iran
Rocky Swift gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. As much of Asia was closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, all eyes were on the Middle East in the hope that talks between the U.S. Geopolitical tensions will be de-escalated by talks between the?U.S. Gold and oil prices fell after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he will be participating "indirectly," in the talks scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva on Iran's nuclear program. He also said he believes Tehran wants to make a deal. Following a holiday in the U.S. for Presidents' Day, the financial markets in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore were closed. With little to no catalysts for the day, traders are looking ahead to key data this week including Fed minutes on Tuesday and U.S. Gross Domestic Product figures on Friday. This week, Britain, Canada and Japan will also publish their inflation data. The markets are now even more interested in these price readings after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates earlier this month, becoming the first major central banks, except for Japan, to do so after the post-COVID ease cycle. The RBA stated on Tuesday that it concluded inflation would remain stubbornly high even if interest rates were not raised. Early European trades saw the pan-regional Euro?Stoxx futures?drop 0.35% at 5,975, German DAX Futures slid 0.39% at 24,774, while FTSE Futures slipped 0.18% to 10,422. U.S. Stock Futures, S&P500?eminis, fell 0.46% to 6,819. Key developments on Tuesday that may influence the markets: – Earnings of Kerry?Group and InterContinental Hotels – Germany?CPI for January –?ZEW surveys in Germany for euro zone & Germany – UK jobs data Debt: reopening 2-year debt auctions in Germany, reopening 2-year and 6-year debt auctions in UK.
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Asia markets cautious in advance of US-Iran Nuclear Talks
The Asian financial markets were cautious on Tuesday, with a thinned-out trading session. Oil prices were mixed in anticipation of the nuclear negotiations between the U.S.A. and Iran that are due to start later in the day in Geneva. Tuesday, the markets in China, Hong Kong Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and South Korea will be closed for Lunar New Year?holidays. U.S. market were closed on Monday due to 'Presidents' Day'. The Nikkei in Japan was down by 0.9%, while the S&P/ASX200 in Australia was up by 0.24%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell by 2.5 basis points, to 4.029%, on Tuesday. The yield on the 20-year JGB in Japan fell by 5.5 basis points, to 3.025%. The 30-year yield fell 6 basis points to 3,025%. Prices and yields are inversely related. The 5-year JGB auction earlier in the morning had a poor result, resulting in a 4.5 basis point drop to 1.625%. Nasdaq Futures are down 0.8%, while S&P 500 Futures are down 0.4%. The dollar index (a measure of the U.S. currencies against its major rivals) was mostly stable at 97.12 after a slight gain of 0.2% over night. On Tuesday, Japan's weakening economic situation was in the spotlight. This follows a day of much lower than expected GDP figures. On Monday, the country reported that its economy had grown by an annualised 0.2% during the fourth quarter. This was far below the 1.6% predicted as government spending dampened the activity. The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 153.05 dollars per dollar on Tuesday. Economists say that the weak numbers highlight the challenges facing Prime Minister Sanae Takayi and should encourage her to push for more aggressive fiscal stimuli. The BOJ will meet again in March to discuss rates, and traders predict only a'slim chance' of a rate hike. Last month, economists who were surveyed by the central bank expected it to wait until July to tighten policy again. In a research note, NAB analysts stated that the market had likely assumed the softer GDP figures in the fourth-quarter would encourage PM Takaichi to offer more fiscal support and lower the sales tax for food. The price of BOJ rate increases has been lowered after the release of the GDP data. Only 4 basis points were priced for the meeting in March and 16 basis for the April meeting. The central bank of Australia said that it was unsure if more tightening is needed, but had decided to raise interest rates this month. It had only priced in 4 basis points for the March meeting and 16 basis points for April. INVESTORS ARE CAUTIOUS ABOUT US-IRAN TALKS Oil prices were mixed ahead of U.S. - Iran talks aimed at reducing tensions in the face of anticipated OPEC+ production increases. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was?up by 0.95%, but this included the entire Monday's price movement as the contract didn't settle that day because of the U.S. Holiday. Brent crude futures fell 0.5% in the Asian session, after rising?1.33% on Monday. The semi-official news agency?Tasnim reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy held a drill on Monday in the Hormuz Strait, just a day before the renewed Iran-U.S. Nuclear Negotiations. This passage is responsible for around 20% of all global oil shipments. Analysts at ANZ said that "the market is still unsettled due to geopolitical uncertainty, and investors are cautious because of the pending U.S. - Iran and Ukraine negotiations in this week." In recent weeks, speculative positions have increased. The risk premium built into the oil price could quickly unwind if the tension in the Middle East eases, or if meaningful progress is made regarding the Ukraine War. Gold fell 0.82% to $4950 an ounce, as the stronger dollar made gold priced in greenbacks more expensive for holders other currencies. Silver spot was down 1.6%. (Reporting and editing by Kim Coghill, Saad Sayeed and Scott Murdoch)
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BHP's first-half profits beat record levels, boosting Australian shares
BHP, the world's biggest listed miner, soared to a new record after posting?stronger? first-half results. This set the tone for the earnings season in the resources sector. S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.2% higher on Tuesday at 8,958.90, adding to Monday's 0.2% gain. The U.S. market was closed on Monday for Presidents' Day and many Asian markets were closed for Lunar New Year. This meant that the focus remained on domestic earnings. BHP jumped 4.73% to a record A$52.74 after posting stronger-than-expected ?half-year profit, driven by copper earnings, lifting the mining subindex 1.3%. Rival Fortescue slipped 0.5%. Rio Tinto is due to report Thursday, and Fortescue the following week. Investors are looking for signs on iron ore demand and sector outlook. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that supply shortages will likely keep pressure on commodity prices. Tuesday's moves reflected a positioning of earnings gains against a backdrop of tightening supplies. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s most recent meeting show that policymakers believed inflation would remain high even without this month’s rate hike. They also expressed uncertainty about whether additional tightening was needed. Financials ended little changed, as gains by Westpac offset losses in the four major banks. Investors became cautious following a rally last week, Waterer attributed the move to profit-taking after bank earnings that had boosted?the subindex by 5.4%. Investors are now focusing on Thursday's employment data. It is expected to show that hiring has cooled and unemployment has increased slightly. This will be a critical read for the country's interest rate outlook. Gold stocks and energy companies fell by 1.2% and 0.4% respectively, limiting some losses. New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 fell 0.7%, to a close of?13.031.62, the lowest in over five months. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep rates unchanged at its first meeting of this year, which will be held on Wednesday. (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)
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Brent prices fall as traders focus on US-Iran talks
In Asian trade, Brent oil prices fell on Tuesday after investors?assessed the risks of a supply disruption following Iran's naval drills near Strait?of Hormuz just before?nuclear talks with the U.S.?later?in?the day. Brent crude futures fell 0.47% or 32 cents to $68.33 per barrel at 0430 GMT after a 1.33% rise on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $63.51 a barrel, up 62c or 0.99%. However, the price increase included the entire Monday's movement as the contract didn't settle that day because of the U.S. Presidents Day Holiday. There are many markets closed for Lunar New Year on Tuesday, including those in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Monday that he will be "indirectly involved" in the Geneva talks. He also stated that he believes Tehran is interested in a deal. Trump stated that a regime change in Iran would be "the best thing to happen" at the weekend. Market?sentiment depends on the tone and progress in these negotiations... maintaining a geopolitical premium in prices, said Sugandha Sagandha, founder of SS WealthStreet based out of New Delhi. Sachdeva said that oil prices will likely remain volatile. They are more affected by the diplomatic signals than demand-supply fundamentals. Iran started a military exercise on Monday near the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial international waterway, and a route for oil exports from Gulf Arab countries, who have called for diplomatic solutions to the dispute. Iran, along with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Iraq, export the majority of their crude oil via the strait to Asia. Citi also said that if disruptions in Russian supply continue to keep Brent at $65-$70 per barrel in the upcoming months, OPEC+ will likely respond by increasing production from spare 'capacity. Three OPEC+ sources have said that OPEC+ will likely resume oil production increases in April as it prepares for a?peak summer's demand? and prices are boosted by tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Citi stated that "it is our base scenario?that both Iran-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine deal happen by or during summer this year, contributing a drop in prices to $60 to 62/bbl Brent." (Reporting from Mohi N. in New Delhi, and Anushree. Mukherjee. in Bengaluru. Editing by Kevin Buckland.)
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Executives at Naturals say that if the Reliance stake talks fall through, they are looking to IPO in 2028.
Naturals, an Indian salon chain, is still 'in talks' with Reliance about a possible?stake-sale, but the discussions have slowed down as both sides are yet to converge on a deal structure. In an interview, Kumaravel stated. Naturals will go public in 2028, if the negotiations with Reliance do not bear fruit. Kumaravel said this on the sidelines of an event organized by Retailers Association of India (RAI) in Mumbai. He said that the talks, which were first announced in 2022, "stalled" after Reliance demanded a 51% share, while Naturals only wanted to sell 49%. This was to maintain control for several more years, before considering a bigger 'divestment. Kumaravel confirmed that Naturals was not in talks with any other investors. Reliance has not responded to a comment request. Naturals, with about 900 salons, is India's biggest organised salon chain, beating out competitors such as Lakme Salon and Geetanjali Salon in a market dominated by unorganised companies. The company reported a gross merchandise value (GMV) of 4.5 billion rupees (49.64 millions dollars) for fiscal 2025, and is expecting this figure to reach 6 billion rupees in the current financial year. This financial year, the company expects to reach 6? According to Ken Research, India's $10.8 billion beauty salon market is growing as younger consumers spend a greater amount on grooming. The?chain will add 100 salons in Pune this year. They are focusing on clusters of locations rather than dispersed ones. Reliance would be able to enter the salon and spa services through Naturals, as Indians are increasingly spending on skincare and makeup.
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Zivame, backed by Reliance, bets India's smaller cities with a fresh store blitz.
Zivame, a lingerie retailer backed by Reliance Industries, plans to open between 60 and 80 franchised stores in the next year. The company is looking to grow its business in 'India's smaller cities. Zivame, founded in 2011, was originally an online-only company. Since then it has expanded to physical stores. It now operates 174 exclusive brand outlets. Reliance Retail acquired a stake of the company in 2021, as part?of its wider push into apparel & innerwear. Zivame's next phase of expansion will be focused on India's Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, where the demand is "increasingly similar to that of metro markets, as social media adoption accelerates," COO Kiruba Devi told delegates at a Retailers Association of India conference in Mumbai. She declined to provide a regional revenue split, but stated that the company had turned profitable during the last quarter. Without going into detail because the company now operates as a listed entity. Devi stated that the brand is exploring franchise agreements to expand overseas, initially focusing on Southeast Asia. She said that Southeast Asia was the "right place" for us to get involved immediately. Zivame has been in talks with the region and may launch a store by the end of next year. Zivame began as a lingerie aggregator, but has now expanded its product range to include shapewear, activewear, and loungewear. Devi stated that the company also plans to enter into children's clothing, but did not provide any further details. Reporting by Chandini monnappa in Mumbai and Praveen paramasivam; editing by Dhanya skariachan and Sonia cheema
US retailers haggle over tariffs with suppliers
Walmart and Target, two of the largest retailers in the United States, are arguing behind closed doors with their suppliers about proposed price increases on a wide range of products including cake pans and tote bags.
Their discussions will determine how and when merchandise prices will rise, and which products will be kept on the shelves.
Major retailers claim they cannot raise prices at retail without alienating American consumers and losing market share. This stance has led to heated discussions with suppliers about pricing after President Donald J. Trump imposed tariffs.
David Dalquist is the CEO of Nordic Ware a small manufacturer of cookware. He has been severely affected by Trump's 25% aluminum tariffs. Dalquist’s Minneapolis-based company purchases aluminum coils weighing 5,000 pounds, which are used to manufacture Bundt pans.
The fact that his cost has risen by 5-10% due to the new tariffs introduced on March 12 makes it difficult for him to set the prices for retailers for the new season. This will culminate later in the year, around the holidays.
Dalquist, in an interview, said that most retailers require 60 days notice of any price increases. He said, "You can't simply hand them the money." Then, they go through their own assessment to determine if it is justified. This can take months. Dalquist must cover the increased costs in the interim.
Walmart stated in a press release that "our conversations with suppliers all aim to make our purpose a reality for millions of customers. We will continue to work with them closely to find the best path forward during these uncertain time."
ONEROUS PROCESS
Retail, unlike manufacturing is a time-consuming process. This is due to the contracts retailers have with their suppliers. Walmart's size has made it difficult for vendors to deal with the company. It generates over $446 billion in annual sales within the United States. Walmart has also said in the past that it would scrutinize each line item before agreeing to a price increase proposed by a supplier.
A supplier can be severely hurt by a Walmart decision to remove a brand from its shelves due to a disagreement over price. Dalquist stated that retailers would simply substitute Bundt pans made by other manufacturers if they didn't agree with the price increases. In the current market, there are many kitchenware products available at lower prices. It would be difficult to raise prices without affecting consumer demand.
Kim Vaccarella of Bogg Bag in Secaucus New Jersey increased the price of its bags by $5 due to Trump's 20% tariffs on China imports. Bogg sells Target brightly colored tote bags made in China with Croc-like material. The original size bag is sold for $90. Target's spokesperson referred to remarks made by Target executives at a recent investor conference. Rick Gomez said that it was still too early to know how the prices of individual products might change. However, the retailer is looking at the pricing in a holistic way.
She said that some retailers had already asked her about lowering her wholesale price. "People are getting creative," Vaccarella said. She said that her company is also considering alternative manufacturing sites, such as Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and lower-cost factories, in China.
LOSS LEADING
The price negotiations between manufacturers and retailers are a complex process.
He said "I was fortunate" when referring to his own deals with big retailers. This is because he has a unique product - devices that let a user play videogames without having to worry about tiny screens and buttons.
No one else offered his niche-specific controllers. "But if I were to sell 100 TVs to Walmart, 99 other TV manufacturers would not want to raise prices."
Townley added that it is also important to know what the competitors are selling. Townley said that it is also important to know what the competitors are selling.
He said that there was a lot of loss-leading going on, which refers to the willingness of suppliers to absorb losses while maintaining current wholesale prices in order to remain on retailer's shelves. He said, "It is a miracle anyone stays in business."
Isaac Larian, Chief Executive Officer of MGA Entertainment and Bratz doll manufacturer MGA Entertainment, said that the company has been negotiating with retailers about a price increase on toys made in China. The company wants this to take effect by April. MGA toys are available at Walmart, Target and other retailers.
The retailers have that job. "They resist and say that they don't want to see a price rise, and they told us this because the consumers are very, very stressed and strained," Larian said.
Larian believes he won't be able pass the entire 20% tariff on to retailers in the form of a 20% increase in price. He said that "we'll have to share the responsibility". He said that while "we'll accept a smaller margin", half the cost of tariffs will "we must pass on" to retailers through higher wholesale prices. Timothy Aeppel in New York, Jessica DiNapoli in London and Siddharth Cavale reported. Richa Naidu contributed additional reporting from London. Vanessa O'Connell, Aurora Ellis and Vanessa O'Connell edited the story.
(source: Reuters)