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Base metals decline as Trump's tariffs increase demand concerns
Investors feared that the new U.S. broad tariffs could halt global growth and impact industrial metal demand. Base metals dropped in London on Thursday, with copper reaching its lowest level in over three weeks. By 0909 GMT, the benchmark three-month price of copper on London Metal Exchange (LME), which had hit $9,485, was down by 1.6% to $9,546.50 a metric tonne. Markets are taking into account the potential negative impact of tariffs on demand and the possible responses from other major trading partners. "We expect the downward trend to continue, at least for the short term," said BNP Paribas' analyst David Wilson. Citi predicts that copper will fall to $8,500 in the third quarter as tariff increases impact global growth expectations, consumption prospects, and risk appetite. BNP Paribas predicts the same level during the second quarter. On Wednesday evening, Donald Trump announced a reciprocal tariff that would raise import taxes to their highest level in over a century. The tariffs also include an additional 34% on imports of metals to the United States from China, which is the largest consumer of metals in the world. China's Foreign Ministry called on the United States "to correct its wrongdoing". The White House did not include copper for which the U.S. Administration is currently conducting a separate investigation into possible new tariffs as well as aluminum and steel that are already subject to 25% duties. The reciprocal tariffs will not apply to "other minerals" that are not produced in the U.S. LME aluminium fell 0.5%, to $2.478 per ton, after reaching $2.448, its lowest level since September 13. A metals trader said that the contract, which has fallen for 11 straight sessions, is being pressured by Commodity Trading Advisors, funds that track momentum using computer models. He believes that this activity will soon fade. Lead fell 0.5% and zinc dropped 1.1% on the LME. Both reached their lowest levels in two months. Nickel dropped 0.5% to $15,880, after reaching a 1-month low. LME Tin was down 3.4% to $36,620. On Wednesday, it hit $38,395, the highest since May 2022. This was due to short-covering as investors feared that the recent earthquake in Myanmar could delay mining and exports. (Reporting from London by Polina Devitt; Additional reporting in Shanghai by Violet Li; Editing by Sharon Singleton).
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QUOTES - Executives, trade and labor organizations on Trump's reciprocal duties
Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he will impose a baseline 10% tariff on all imports into the United States, and increased duties on some of its biggest trading partners. This could lead to a trade conflict and upset the global economy. Countermeasures from trading partners could result in a dramatic increase in prices of everything, including bicycles and wine. Trump has already levied 25% on automobiles and auto parts. Here are some reactions from business executives, trade and union associations: Companies KATSUYA NAKANISHI is the CEO of MITSUBISHICORP The CEO of a Japanese trading company said that the firm will be flexible and agile in responding to the effects of tariffs. It will also evaluate the risks and look for opportunities. NOBUHIRO TORII, PRESIDENT OF SUNTORY "We will try to sell locally and produce... that's the key with tariffs." ASSOCIATIONS OF WORKERS AND PARTICIPANTS SWISS BUSINESS GROUP ECONOMISSE "Another escalation in the trade conflict is to be avoided. Swiss economic diplomacy and the Federal Council are urged to find quick solutions with the U.S. Government at the negotiation table. "From an economic perspective, the U.S. tariffs on Switzerland are not comprehensible - rather the opposite." DIRK JANDURA HEAD OF GERMANY EXPORTERS ASSOCIATION (BGA) "We'll have to pass on these tariffs as price increases and this will impact turnover in many instances." It is a blind economic alley that will result in welfare losses on both sides of Atlantic. GIOVANNA CEOLINI HEAD OF CONFINDUSTRIA ACCESSORI - MODA, REPRESENTING ITALIAN FOOTWEAR AND LEATHER, AS WELL AS FUR, TANNERY, AND FURRY INDUSTRIES We are worried that there will be a decline in demand for our products. It will depend on how willing Americans are to pay more. WOLFGANG NIEDERMARK EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEMBER, GERMANY’S MAIN INDUSTRY ASSOCATION BDI The justification of this protectionist escalation has no rational basis. It is a threat to our export-oriented businesses and threatens prosperity, stability and jobs in the United States, as well as innovation, investment and global investment. The EU should now coordinate its response and strengthen its alliances, with its major trading partners. "A coordinated response is needed to counter the changing flows of international trade." SCOTT WHITAKER, CEO, ADVAMED "These broad-based tariffs would be similar to an excise duty." R&D would be the most immediate and direct victim, as it threatens America's leadership in medtech innovation. Tariffs would cost U.S. workers, increase health care costs and hinder future medical progress. CHRIS VITALE, UAW VETERAN WHO RETIRED FROM STELLANTIS, ATTENDED TRUMP'S TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT IN PERSON "These are the things we've been preaching about for years. We've watched our factories and our capabilities being hollowed-out. To see a President address this and use some words and thoughts I've used, was incredible." LIZ SHULER PRESIDENT AMERICAN FEDERATION of LABOR and CONGRESS INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONS The Trump administration's attacks against the rights of union workers at home, the gutting of government agencies that work to discourage outsourcing of American jobs, and efforts to erode crucial investments in U.S. Manufacturing take us backward. RICHARD CAPETTO, SENIOR DIRECTOR, NORTH AMERICAN GOVT. AFFAIRS IPC "A strong U.S. electronic industry requires a holistic approach -- one which pairs targeted incentives and investments with policies that promote mutually beneficial trade partnership. Trade is crucial to innovation, cost-competitiveness, and supply chain resilience. Tariffs could increase costs for American companies and drive production overseas. ZOLTAN VAN HEYNINGEN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, U.S. WOOD COALITION We welcome President Trump's measures and the focus of his administration on Canada's unfair trading practices. We are especially pleased that the President has launched the Section 232 Investigation under the Trade Expansion Act of 1964 focusing on the imports of softwood lumber. MARK COMPTON EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR THE AMERICAN EXPLORATION & MINING ASSOCATION We are encouraged that the Trump administration is prioritizing the production and processing of domestic minerals so that we can have the raw materials our manufacturing base, and society needs. We look forward working with the Trump administration to ensure that the domestic mining industry can meet this challenge. Reporting by Juby B. Babu from Mexico City; Vallari Srivastava in San Francisco; Nick Brown, Caroline Humer, and Dhanush Bahu in Bengaluru; Abhirup Roy and Dhanush in Bengaluru. Editing by Sayantani Ghosh and Shounak Dasgupta.
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China stocks, yuan tumble after bigger-than-expected Trump tariffs
China's Yuan fell to its lowest level for seven weeks on Thursday, and the stock markets also suffered after U.S. president Donald Trump announced a set of tariffs that targeted China and its major trading partners. Washington's most recent punitive measures were more aggressive than investors expected. Tariffs of up to 34% will be added on top of Trump's previous 20% tariffs, making the new total levy of 54%. Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos were the hardest-hit countries in China's supply chains, receiving tariffs of between 46% and 49 %. China's blue chip CSI 300 Index dropped 0.6%, to a new two-month-low. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also fell 1.5%. The initial market reaction will likely be a continuation in the risk-off mood, said Lynn Song. Chief economist for Greater China, ING. Song does not expect an intentional devaluation, as it would result in more tariffs that would undermine the currency stability benefits. YUAN SUPPORT Analysts are examining China's intention to defend the Yuan to determine how eager it is to contain contagion on emerging markets as well as negotiate with Trump. The onshore Chinese yuan closed the session in China at 7,3043 per US dollar, its weakest close since the 12th of February. Overnight, the offshore yuan reached a new one-month low. China's state-owned banks bought yuan and the People's Bank of China set the midpoint, or rate around which the yuan can trade, above the market estimates in a move to limit depreciation. The currency has lost most of its gains for the year to date over the last month despite the PBOC's efforts to maintain it through daily benchmark changes. Trump signed an order closing a loophole in trade that allowed low-value packages to be shipped duty-free out of China if they were valued at less than $800, also known as de minimis. The White House said that the order will cover goods from China and Hong Kong and take effect on 2 May. Chinese bond yields fell on Thursday as investors lowered their expectations of a monetary ease. Analysts say that Trump and China are now closer to beginning trade negotiations. However, foreign investors won't be investing in a market where they have invested billions, as they chase a rally sparked by Chinese AI startup DeepSeek. "China's recent technology re-rating has been largely insulated from tariffs," said Eugene Hsiao. Head of China equity strategy, Macquarie Capital. He added that the main concern is the global risk off sentiment, which could limit future inflows. Beijing's plan for economic growth of 5% by 2025, which is targeted at a 5% increase in the next few years, could be affected by the trade war.
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Fuels and carbon dioxide are the main cause of forward curve contracts falling.
European forward curve contracts fell on Thursday, following lower gas and carbon prices. This was after President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs that could cause concern in the manufacturing industry. Analysts at Energi Danmark say that the European carbon market has a bearish outlook, as tariff concerns, uncertainties about possible market reforms, and technical signals are all contributing to a negative trend. Further price drops should be expected. They said that further price drops should be expected on Thursday as part of a general downward trend. "The (power) market is likely to follow the fuels and carbon markets down. The fears over the US tariffs' consequences for the German economy are causing some concern." Trump's decision to impose a tariff of 20% on the majority of goods imported from Europe has intensified the global trade war, which threatens to fuel inflation and stall economic growth. As of 8:39 GMT, the German power contract for 2026 was down 3.5% at 62 euros/MWh. The French baseload contract is now down 3.5% at 85 euro/MWh. Carbon permits in Europe fell by 2.3%, to 66.98 euro per metric ton. On the European spot side, day-ahead contract splits were made as German wind power was expected to drop by half. The French wind supply would also be reduced by about the same amount. The German baseload electricity price for the day ahead rose by 13.1%, to 87 Euros/MWh. Meanwhile, French baseload energy on Friday fell 10% and was 38.25 Euros/MWh. Data compiled by LSEG shows that the German wind output will drop by 6 gigawatts to 5.9 GW this Friday. In France, it is predicted to fall by 1.6 GW and reach 6.3 GW. According to LSEG, the power usage in Germany will drop by 1.2 GW and reach 54.5 GW. In France, it is expected to fall by 1.1 GW and reach 47 GW. Two reactors were taken offline for maintenance, resulting in a five-point drop in French nuclear availability. ($1 = 0.9098 euro) (Reporting and additional reporting by Vera Eckert, Editing by RashmiAich)
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Investors flee as Trump tariffs slash stocks
Investors rushed to gold, bonds and the yen as they feared a global economic recession following President Donald Trump’s draconian U.S. tariffs. The traders were clearly shaken by the new 10% baseline tariff on imported products plus additional, eye-watering'reciprocal tariffs' on countries Trump claimed imposed high trade barriers against the U.S. Brussels and other capitals of the region were in a frenzy as the EU 27 countries faced a reciprocal 20% levy. The bourses fell between 1.3% to 2% in the early going. Tokyo's stock market fell 2.7% overnight in Asia, putting it on track for its worst weekly performance in almost two years. Wall Street futures fell 3% while the dollar hit a six-month high. JPMorgan analysts said that the tariffs are "significantly higher" than what they had imagined as the worst-case scenario. Fitch, a credit rating agency, warned that they would be a game-changer for the U.S. economy and global economies. Deutsche Bank said it was a once-in-a lifetime event which could knock 1%-1.5% of U.S. economic growth in this year. Olu Sonola, a Fitch analyst, said that "many countries are likely to end up in recession." If this tariff rate is maintained for a long time, you can forget about most forecasts. The rush for ultra-safe government securities that guarantee income has driven U.S. Treasury rates down to around 4%. Germany's 10-year rate, the European benchmark, fell by 8.5 basis points to 2.64%. The tariffs are likely to raise import taxes to levels not seen in over a century in the largest economy in the world. In the event that they trigger recessions, it is likely that central banks will cut interest rates around the globe. This benefits bonds. Nasdaq Futures fell 3.2% before what was expected to a be a turbulent U.S. start. Apple's market cap dropped by over $240 billion after its shares fell 7% on Wednesday. Nvidia's share price dropped by 5.6%, or $153 billion. This is a further addition to the trillions of dollars that have been wiped from the market capitalisations of the "Magnificent 7" tech giants this year. Trump's levies are particularly harsh on Asia. China received a 34% tax, Japan 24%, South Korea 25 and Vietnam 46%. Vietnamese shares fell 6.7% as a result. Australian shares and the Aussie Dollar also fell, as the country too was affected. CHINA FOCUS Investors sold exposure to global growth as countries such as China, Canada and Europe promised countermeasures. Brent futures, which are a good proxy for economic activity and the state of the economy, fell as much as 3%, dropping Brent prices below $73 per barrel. This is likely to be its worst day this year. The gold price reached a record-high of $3,160 per ounce but then slowed down. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen rose more than 1.5 percent to 147.01 dollars as traders sought safety outside the U.S. Dollar. The Swiss Franc, another safe haven, reached its highest level in four month as the euro also jumped 1% to $1.0970. Adam Hetts is the global head of Multi-assets and Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson Investors. He said: "Eyewatering tariffs country by country screams 'negotiation tactics' which will keep markets in a state of tension for foreseeable future." China's currency remained relatively stable, with the yuan dropping only 0.4% in spite of tariffs on Chinese exports exceeding 50% and Vietnam being hit as a result. The Chinese economy is large and there's a hope that Beijing will support Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks. Losses in Hong Kong were limited to 1.5%, and Shanghai losses to 0.5%. George Saravelos, strategist at Deutsche Bank, said that China should be the main focus of attention in the coming days. He asked: "Will China wait for trade talks... or will it absorb this shock? "Or will China try to 'export the shock'... via devaluation of yuan?"
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Trump's tariffs dim the safe-haven shine of the dollar
Investors are avoiding the dollar as a safe place to store money during turbulent times. They are worried about tariffs, and their effect on U.S. economic growth. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday far more extensive and larger tariffs against roughly 60 countries. These included massive tariffs against China and its biggest trading partners. As equity markets trembled over the tariff news, the dollar fell broadly. Take a look at how the dollar compares to other safe havens. 1/ GREENBACK TAKS BACKSEAT Dollar has lost its luster as a safe investment option, mainly because of domestic turmoil caused by Trump's tariffs. These have increased the risk of an American recession. Both the S&P 500 and the dollar have been falling recently. This is a sign that the dollar has not benefited from the safe-haven flow. Van Luu is the Russell Investments' head of currency strategy and fixed income. He said, "I used to think that the yen, the Swiss franc, and the dollar were the safest currencies. Now I am beginning to change my mind." The dollar index is down nearly 4% and has had the worst year start since 2016, according to LSEG. It seems investors are yet to price in recession risk, which is why dollar weakness persists as capital continues to flow out of U.S. investments amid the fading economic exceptionalalism, said Rong Ren Goh. He is a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, Singapore's fixed income team. While Trump's loose economic policies have hurt the dollar's reputation as a safe-haven currency, some investors believe it will eventually regain its appeal as global growth slows. GOLDEN HISTORY Gold has been a safe haven asset since before any financial system. Gold tends to increase in value as investor anxieties rise. The 1970s energy crises, 1980 U.S. economic recession, 2007-08 global financial crash, and the COVID pandemic of 2020 have all seen a rise of the price of gold. Gold has almost doubled over the last two-and-a half years, reaching all time highs of $3,000 per ounce. Central banks, retail investors and portfolio managers have all bought gold to protect themselves against inflation spikes that were caused by the COVID crises and the subsequent global energy crisis. They continued to buy gold even when inflation began to ease. With Trump's isolationist policies, many are buying gold to replace the dollar. FIGHTING BACK The yen, the Japanese currency, is one of the most popular currencies that benefits from safe-haven flows. It usually performs well during times when stock prices are falling. The yen had its best day ever against the dollar on Wednesday. It has risen almost 7% this year. Meanwhile, another safe haven, the Swiss Franc, has gained more than 4%. Justin Onuekwusi is chief investment officer of investment firm St. James's Place. He said, "The yen gains if the S&P index is volatile. That's something we've been more inclined to tilt towards." 4/ GET DEFENSIVE Stocks are often hard hit by recessions and financial crises. Investors make money by grabbing their cash and running for safety. Most investors cannot give up on the equity market, and so they will tend to buy stocks that are expected to weather recessions well. These include drugmakers, utilities, and food and beverage companies. Over the past 25 years, defensive stocks, those that are more closely tied to the global economy such as technology and mining stocks, have consistently outperformed cyclical shares. Even though there is no immediate recession in sight, a global basket of defensive stocks has dropped less since Trump's election victory than a basket cyclicals that had been boosted by expensive tech and AI shares, reflecting investor caution. 5/ BETTING BONDS For now, renewed tariff anxiety has reduced the pressure on government bonds, which typically benefit from flows to safe-haven assets during times of global stress. Germany's benchmark Bund yield has dropped from the five-month highs reached last month. This is due to expectations that an increase in German spending would lead to a rise in bond sales. The 10-year Treasury yields in the United States are set to have their largest weekly decline in five weeks, with yields down by more than 10 basis point on Wednesday alone. But it's true that not all of this has been driven by a desire for safety. Tariff concerns have also increased recession risks, and the likelihood of further global rate cuts. This is a background that usually benefits bonds. Eric Clark, portfolio director at Alpha Brands, San Diego, said that he still believes this chaos was created to create panic. The uncertainty is driving yields lower at a time when demand is high for our debt, allowing us refinance $4 trillion to 5 trillion dollars at better rates.
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Rafael Devers and the Red Sox win series against Orioles
Boston Red Sox have worked out a few kinks in their first week of play, but they should have a positive attitude going into Thursday's game. After snapping a losing streak of four games, the Red Sox will face the Baltimore Orioles at the final game of a three-game set. Rafael Devers, Boston's designated hitter, said that there was no need to worry even though he had started the season with a 0-for-19 record through Tuesday. He started the game Wednesday at Baltimore 0-for-2, but then added a run scoring double in the 5th inning. Boston won 3-0. Devers stated, "I knew that it would come." "I received many texts from worried people, but I was fine." His teammates were enthused by his performance. Dever stated, "It's a great feeling to see that reaction." Dever said, "It makes me happy to see that they are paying attention to my at bat and supporting me." Trevor Story scored the first run of the game, which was his first RBI this season. He went 3-for-4, raising his average from.133 up to.263. Devers stated, "We know what type of players and team we are." "We knew that everything would change." Story stated that there are signs that Boston has "a really strong lineup". On Wednesday, the Orioles did not have a single extra-base run. They only had four singles. The Red Sox's Garrett Crochet started the first eight innings and Aroldischapman took over the ninth. Brandon Hyde, Baltimore's manager, said: "We had a hard time putting them under pressure." The Orioles' lineup could be drastically different for the final game of the series. Gunnar Henderson, a shortstop with a right intercostal injury, played his fourth rehab game with Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday, and went 0-for-3 against Charlotte. He now has accumulated five home runs, four RBIs, and.263 (.263) in 19 games. It was possible that he could be listed on Baltimore's lineup Thursday afternoon. Jackson Holliday should be back in the Orioles lineup following his Wednesday night rest. Hyde said that the 21-year old infielder may sit out certain left-handed pitchers. Tanner Houck (1-0, 6.35 ERA), will be the pitcher for Boston on Thursday. In his debut season, the right-hander allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings -- including two homers -- to Texas on Friday. Houck has a 4-3 career record with a 3.50 ERA against the Orioles in nine appearances, five of which were starts. Charlie Morton, the Baltimore Orioles' right-hander (0-1, 10.80 ERA), will be looking to rebound from a poor first outing in Toronto on Friday, when he lasted only 3 1/3 innings. Morton has a record of 8-2 and a 4.21 ERA over 15 career starts. In 83 1/3 innings, he has struck out 88 Boston batters. Eight wins are his second-most against any team. Baltimore's first six games have been a mix of wins and losses. The Orioles scored 29 runs across their three wins, which means they can still have a breakout season despite Wednesday's sluggish offensive performance. Zach Eflin said, "Show up Thursday and win the Series," after he took the loss Wednesday. He had allowed three runs in 6 innings. The Red Sox will play their first home game on Friday, against the St. Louis Cardinals. Field Level Media
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Floods 'generational in nature' to hit US Midwest and South
The National Weather Service issued a warning on Thursday about "generational" flooding in the Southern and Midwestern United States. Storms tore across the country, from Texas up to Michigan, dropping hail and causing tornadoes. On Wednesday, at least 19 tornadoes hit, destroying houses and businesses and injuring eight people. Hundreds of thousands were left without power. The NWS stated that this was only "the beginning" of a potentially historic and multi-day heavy rain event. Arkansas, Missouri Tennessee and Mississippi are facing the threat of "generational flooding event". Some locations could see up to 15 inches (38cm) of rain before the weekend. This could cause rivers burst. As of early Thursday, no fatalities had been reported. Local officials reported that four people were injured, one of them critically, in Craighead County, Arkansas. Four others were also injured, including one in a church in Ballard County, Kentucky. The railroad company BNSF has announced that it received a Reportage The cause of the derailment of a train near Bay, Arkansas was not specified. Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee declared an emergency late Wednesday. The National Weather Service warned that parts of Arkansas and Missouri, Indiana, Illinois and Texas, were at high risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday. They also warned of further tornadoes, large hail and dangerous flooding. Scott Kleebauer said that the word for Wednesday was "chaotic." This is a wide area of storms moving slowly eastward, extending from southeast Michigan to southeastern Arkansas. The Missouri Emergency Management Agency reported that a tornado which hit Nevada, Missouri had caused "major damages to several businesses. Power poles were snapped, and several empty train cars were flipped on their side by the powerful storm!" According to PowerOutage.us, more than 400,000 customers lost power in the storm-hit region. Reporting by Brad Brooks, Colorado; Surbhi misra, Bengaluru; Editing by Peter Graff
London Metal Exchange fined $11.9 million by UK watchdog for 2022 nickel crisis
The Financial Conduct Authority of Britain (FCA), announced on Thursday that it had fined the London Metal Exchange 9,2 million pounds ($11.90million) for failing to maintain its systems and controls. This was the first time a UK exchange has been sanctioned.
The FCA investigated the LME in relation to the nickel crisis of 2022. The LME suspended the nickel market on March 8, 2022 after the price of nickel jumped above $100,000 per metric ton.
The LME, which is the oldest and largest industrial metals market in the world, acknowledged the FCA findings. It added that the enhanced processes that are now in place will strengthen the resilience of their markets.
The LME accepted that, in March 2022 when the effects of large OTC positions spilled onto the LME nickel market, LME prices rose faster than if certain LME controls and systems had been a better defense.
The FCA stated that "(the) LME did have inadequate controls or policies in relation to its automatic volatility control, its "price bands"."
The regulator stated that "decisions regarding market orderliness can only be made by senior managers. However, LME's procedures for alerting these managers to unusual or dangerous market conditions were insufficient." (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, David Evans, and Polina Devtt)
(source: Reuters)