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Oil prices drop as US and Iran consider next steps. Equities are slightly higher.
Oil prices fell in a volatile session on Monday, as investors looked for signs of a possible solution to the Middle East conflict. The U.S. was also weighing the framework of an end-of-conflict plan with Iran. The markets were closed for Easter Monday as well as Tomb Sweeping Day in many countries. But earlier that day, investors cheered up when Axios revealed that the U.S. and Iran, along with a group regional mediators, are discussing terms for a possible 45-day truce that could lead permanently to an end to the conflict, citing sources in the U.S. and Israel, and in the region who have knowledge of the discussions. The official IRNA news service reported on Monday that Iran had rejected the ceasefire, and stressed the need for a permanent ending to the war. In a social media post on Easter Sunday, U.S. president Donald Trump threatened Iran with "hell". He also said that if it didn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, he would target Iran’s power plants and bridges. The market is on edge and awaiting what will happen next. Robert Pavlik is a senior portfolio manager with Dakota Wealth, Fairfield, Connecticut. He said that until we reach a concrete agreement, it's difficult to commit to investing. I liken it going into the water about chest-deep. You are not committed fully, but you have made a commitment. Wall Street was at 10:52 am. ET (1452 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 73.57, or 0.13% to 46,564.03, while the S&P500 rose 11.72, or 0.18% to 6,594.44, and the Nasdaq Composite grew 57.35, or 0.24% to 21,932.08. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 1.94 points or 0.20% to 996.14. Brent crude dropped to $108.74 a barrel, a?0.27% drop on the day, and U.S. Crude fell to $110.92 per barrel. U.S. shares briefly lost some of their gains on Monday, after Institute for Supply Management figures showed that U.S. service sector growth had slowed down in March. Meanwhile, prices paid by companies for inputs rose to a near 3-1/2-year peak, an early indication that the war against Iran is causing inflationary pressures. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including yen and euro, dropped 0.37% at 99.89. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.33% to $1.1553. The dollar gained 0.09% against the Japanese yen to reach 159.7. The yen flirted near the 160-dollar level on Friday after Japanese Finance Minister Satsukikatayama put currency traders on alert, saying that?the Japanese government is ready to take action against speculative movements in foreign exchange markets because volatility has increased "significantly." Investors were torn between optimism about reports of a trucfire plan, and unease regarding Trump's threats to escalate attacks on Iran. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes fell by 1.3 basis point to 4.333% from 4.346% on Friday. Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year bonds dropped by 1.6 basis points. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for?the Federal Reserve's, remained flat at 3.852% from 3.852% as late Friday. While Wall Street was closed on Good Friday for the holiday, Friday's U.S. Jobs Report showed that employment growth in March rebounded faster than expected, with the largest increase in over a year. As people left the workforce, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. These data are confusing for the Federal Reserve. They will decide the next monetary policy in a two-day session ending on April 29, based on the new data. According to CME Group's Fedwatch, traders do not expect any rate cuts by the U.S. Central Bank until October 2027. Wells Fargo's Investment Institute said that due to uncertainty about?inflation, and increased geopolitical risk tied to the Middle East conflict, it does not expect a Fed rate reduction in 2026. It had previously forecast two cuts for this year. Silver and gold were both down, as the market awaited more signals about the U.S./Iran situation. Spot gold increased by 0.1%, to $4.680.29 per ounce. Spot silver dropped by 0.37%, to $72.71 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Shri Navaratnam, Keith Weir, and Lincoln Feast)
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Wells Fargo Investment Institute lowers the energy sector's rating to "unfavorable" on account of limited war premium
Wells Fargo Investment Institute has downgraded their rating for the S&P 500 Energy Sector to "unfavorable". They cited limited 'prospects' of a sustained 'oil-price premium risk premium despite?the Middle East conflict. This move comes after a gain of more than 6% in the benchmark S&P 500's energy index since the beginning of the war. It is the best performance among the 11 major S&P sector. WFII strategists stated that "Sector Performance has Improved 'Materially in 2026. Supported by an unexpected Cold Snap earlier this year, and the increase in oil prices as a response to the War... However, our base case remains a war of limited duration, which we expect will allow global energy supply return to push prices down again." The Institute also lowered its rating for the energy sector in commodities from "neutral" to "unfavorable," noting that, with oil near $100 per barrel, downside risks are dominant The company sees the recent performance of the energy sector as an opportunity to lock-in profits and reallocate them to precious and industrial metals. Global energy prices have been affected by the extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz which transports oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. WFII has raised its target price for Brent crude by 2026 to $75 to $85 per barrel. This is higher than the previous forecast of $65-75. (Reporting and editing by Tasim Zaid in Bengaluru, Kanchana Chkravarty from Bengaluru)
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India's Godrej Consumer could see a cost increase of up to 9% if crude and palm oil prices remain high
Godrej Consumer Products in India said that it expected costs to increase 6% to 9%, if Brent crude remains at $100 to $110 per barrel and palm oil prices remain between 4,500 to '4,800 Malaysian Ringgit per metric ton. The ongoing Middle East conflict has been a major factor in recent gains for both commodities. The cost of palm oil derivatives - a vital ingredient in soaps and personal care items - as well as packaging and freight are significant expenses for Indian consumer companies. They were just beginning to see an increase in demand after the tax relief measures implemented late last year. Brent crude futures rose on Monday to $109.13, while Malaysian palm oils futures reached $1,195.53 (4.812.11 ringgit). Consumer companies usually increase prices or reduce costs to protect margins from rising input costs. Manufacturers of Goodknight mosquito repellent and Cinthol soaps have said that they expect to offset cost increases by increasing prices and taking other measures of savings. The company expects a close-to-double-digit growth in consolidated revenue and core earnings in the fourth quarter, driven by steady domestic demand, it said. Godrej costs rose 6.3% in the third quarter to $361.49 millions. It also stated that it would meet its original bottom-line plan for fiscal 2027, while increasing revenue growth, even if costs remain at current levels. However, the company warned of further revisions should input costs continue to rise. It said that crude-led inflation would likely continue into the first half fiscal 2027. However, policy support such as tax relief measures could offset some of the impact. Peer Dabur said on Friday that growth in its international business would be in the low single digits because of the Middle East conflict.
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Gold prices almost unchanged as US-Iran tensions dominate the news
As market participants remained cautious, they awaited more signals on the U.S. - Iran situation and how it would impact global interest rates. By 9:26 am, spot gold had not changed much from $4,669.13 an ounce. ET (1326 GMT), after falling by 1% in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.3% to $4694.20 an ounce. The United States and Iran weighed the outline of a plan on the eve of an U.S. deadline, as Tehran resisted pressure to quickly reopen Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has warned that he will rain "hell' on Tehran if they do not reach a deal before Tuesday. The war and interest rates will likely remain the focus of attention. "If the 'conflict drags out,' oil?will grind up higher due to tightening supply, increasing inflationary pressures," Bart Melek said, global head for commodity strategy at TD Securities. The Federal Reserve will have less room to relax policy, and discussions of higher rates could be revived if energy costs continue to rise, which would be negative for gold. The oil prices dropped in choppy trade on Monday. However, they have been rising sharply since the start of the conflict. Gold is a popular hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, but it's less appealing when interest rates rise. Investors are also watching the minutes of the Fed’s March policy meeting, due Wednesday. They will also be looking at U.S. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Friday, is a follow-up to the Personal Consumption Spending (PCE) report. According to CME's FedWatch, the U.S. central?bank held interest rates at a steady level last month. A majority of traders do not see any chance of reducing interest?rates by the Fed this year. Silver fell by 0.4% at $72.67 an ounce. Platinum lost 1% and was $1,969.81. Palladium also dropped 1%, to $1,488.58. (Reporting from Ashitha Shivaprasad, Bengaluru. Editing by Joe Bavier.)
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US nuclear regulator ends agency-led drills at plants
Last week, the U.S. Nuclear Power Regulator voted to phase out agency-led inspections of operating reactors. A safety advocate criticized this move as a failure on the part of government responsibilities to protect Americans against attacks 'on the plants. On Friday, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission announced that it had voted to phase-out "force-on force" inspection programs. This was a program in which the agency controlled mock commando attacks to test for potential vulnerabilities at nuclear plants. After the attacks of September 11, 2001, Congress strengthened the program to require inspections at all nuclear plants every three years. The move is a result of the pressure that President Donald Trump has put on the NRC in order to approve the permits needed to quadruple the U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050, to meet the power demands of artificial intelligence, data centers and electrification. Edward Lyman is a nuclear scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists. He said that the move was alarming, given the ongoing threats to U.S. security infrastructure, such as those caused by the conflict in Iran. Lyman explained that the NRC would only be permitted to passively watch the exercises, which will be staged by plant managers and staff. The NRC said that its update to the program "reflects strong safety and security measures already in place at U.S. Nuclear plants." The NRC said agency-led drills would?continue until 2028. After that, the plants will perform?the exercises under independent agency supervision. Lyman stated that changes to the program make it unlikely for the program to comply with the congressional mandates in order to'mitigate potential conflicts of interest' during the drills. As the program moves from a pass/fail approach to one that focuses on training, "potential conflicts of interest are reduced significantly," according to the NRC.
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Investors pressure Amazon, Microsoft, and Google over water and power usage in US data centres
Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet’s Google all abandoned the construction of multi-billion dollar?data centres due to community opposition. Now the companies face shareholder pressure regarding the environmental impact of the?projects. Interviews with have revealed that more than a dozen shareholders are putting pressure on tech companies to provide data about their water consumption and conservation efforts, as they look to increase computing power. Andrea Ranger said that Trillium Asset Management of Boston, with assets of more than $4 billion, had filed a shareholder resolution in December asking Alphabet to clarify how it would meet its existing climate goals, given the increasing energy requirements of their data centers. In 2020, the company committed to halving its emissions by 2030 and using carbon-free sources of energy. Trillium, however, said that emissions actually rose by 51% and left investors "inthe dark" as to how the company planned to achieve its goals. Trillium's similar resolution?last year was supported by nearly a quarter (25%) of independent shareholders. Giovanna Eichner, Green Century Capital Management's shareholder advocate, declined to provide more information. She said that the company was in talks with Nvidia regarding a proposed resolution, "to ensure?that short-term AI benefits do not come at a cost of climate and financial risks over time." Shareholders are asking for more information on water consumption. According to market research firm Mordor Intelligence's data, North American data centres?used almost 1 trillion liters (roughly equivalent to New York City's annual water demands) in 2025. The data on water usage varies. While Meta, Google and Microsoft have all begun using closed-loop refrigeration in their data centres, which uses much less, there are differences between the data. Meta's environmental report for 2025 showed the water consumption for its own sites, but not those it leased or was under construction. The total usage increased 51%, from 3,726 Megaliters in 2020, to 5,637 Megaliters by 2024. This is enough water to provide more than 13,000 households for an entire year. Google's environmental report for 2025 only included data on the sites that it owned and leased, not those operated by others. Amazon and Microsoft reported the total water consumption, but did not break it down by location in their sustainability reports for 2025. Josh Weissman said that Amazon "increasingly discloses site-specific data on water consumption where we operate." Amazon's spokesperson said that the company is "committed" to being a good neighbor and has invested in efficiency measures, bringing on new energy and reducing water consumption. Investors said that site-level data is important because it helps them to assess operational risks, and how the company manages them. They also want to know more about the efforts to replenish water supplies. LOCAL DATA IS REQUESTED Jason Qi is a lead technology analyst at Calvert Research and Management. Microsoft's spokesperson stated that environmental sustainability is "a core value". It also said it "proactively addresses sustainability challenges and accelerates solutions for long-term impacts." Google's spokesperson declined to make any comments, and Meta didn't respond to a comment request. Dan Diorio is vice-president at?the Data Center Coalition. The lobby group includes the Big Four tech companies. He said that improving community engagement has become a priority in the past year. It is important to be upfront about energy and water usage, so residents understand that the project won't strain their resources and protects them as ratepayers. Reporting by Simon Jessop, Valerie Volcovici, and Supantha Mukerjee, in Stockholm. Dawn Kopecki and Chizu Nomiyama edited the story.
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The closure of Hormuz has divided the fortunes between Middle Eastern oil states
A study found that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent?surge of global oil prices has brought financial windfalls for Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Other states, however, who lack alternate shipping routes, have suffered?billions of dollar losses. Iran closed the Strait, a route that accounts for a fifth or more of the global oil and gas flows. This was after U.S. airstrikes and Israeli strikes on Iran in February triggered a wider conflict. Later, it said that vessels with no U.S. and Israeli connections would be allowed to transit the Strait. Some tankers have managed to cross the narrow waterway. However, energy markets are still experiencing unprecedented disruption. Brent crude international rose 60% in March. This is a record increase for a single month. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has threatened to "rain hell" on Tehran until it agrees to a deal that will allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday's end. GEOGRAPHY INDICATES OIL FORTUNES The Middle East oil producers have experienced a different impact on the rise in energy prices. Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are able to bypass the Strait via ports and pipelines, despite the fact that Iran controls the Strait. Oil from Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, on the other hand, has been trapped because these countries do not have alternative routes to international market. A senior Iranian official responded to Trump's threat by saying that Iran would not open the Strait in a temporary ceasefire. The Iranian government has refused to accept Trump's earlier ultimatums and said it would not be humiliated. Some analysts claim that the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has in some way strengthened Tehran. Neil Quilliam is an associate fellow with the think tank Chatham House. He said: "Now that Hormuz was closed, it could be closed again.?And that poses a serious threat to global economic growth." "The genie has escaped the bottle." "The genie is out of the bottle." According to the analysis of export data for March, Iraq's and Kuwait's notional oil export revenue both fell by around three quarters in comparison with last year. Iran's revenue grew by 37%, and Oman's revenue by 26%. Saudi Arabia's revenues from oil increased by 4.3% while those of the UAE decreased by 2.6% due to the lower volumes. Estimates are based on export data from Kpler, a ship tracking firm, and JODI, where they are available. They then multiply the average Brent price by these volumes and compare them to a year ago. Brent was chosen for its simplicity, despite the fact that many of these crudes were priced using other benchmarks which are currently trading at significant premiums. SAUDI ARABIA GETS HIGER ROYALTIES & TAXES Saudi Arabia will see higher oil prices translate into increased taxes and royalties from the state-owned Aramco. Aramco is owned by both the government and sovereign wealth fund. This is especially good news for Saudi Arabia, which has been spending heavily on projects to diversify incomes away from oil. These had led to a budget gap. Aramco refused to comment on the 'calculations. Reps from the other countries' oil companies or representatives did not immediately respond when asked for comments. SAUDI PIPELINE BUILT DURING IRAN IRAQ WAR The 1,200 kilometre (746 mile) East-West pipeline, which was built during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s to bypass Hormuz, is the largest pipeline of the Kingdom. The new 7 million barrels a day capacity allows it to connect the eastern oilfields with the Red Sea Port of Yanbu. Aramco exports approximately 5 million bpd, while using about 2 million for domestic use. Shipping data show that Yanbu loadings were near capacity at 4.6 million barrels per day in the week beginning March 23. This was despite the attacks on the hub. Kpler data and JODI showed that overall Saudi crude exports in March fell by 26% on an annual basis to 4,39 million bpd. Even so, the higher prices boosted the value of these exports by approximately $558 million compared to a year ago. Riyadh preemptively increased exports to their highest level since April 2023 in February, in the event of an attack by the United States on Iran. Quilliam said that despite the East-West connection, Saudi Arabia was vulnerable to any further attacks by Iran, its allies, or the Houthis against the energy infrastructure of the country in the west, and ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait into the Red Sea. IRAQ HAS 'SUFFICIENTED THE LARGEST DROP The UAE is shielded to a certain extent by the 1.5-1.8 million barrels per day Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline, which bypasses Strait. In March, its estimated oil exports fell more than $174m year-on-year. Fujairah was the target of a series attacks which led to the suspension of loading. Iraq had the biggest drop in revenue among Gulf producers - 76%, to $1.73billion. Kuwait was next, with a 73% drop to $864 millions. Iraq's SOMO, the state oil marketing company in Iraq, said on April 2, that oil revenues for March were close to estimates of $2 billion. Both countries will likely suffer greater declines in April, as cargoes which managed to sail during the early days were a major contributor to their March revenues. Last week, a tanker carrying Iraqi crude oil sailed across the Strait after Iran announced that Iraq would not be subject to restrictions. Adriana Alvarado is the VP for sovereign ratings at Morningstar DBRS. She said Gulf governments have options to'stabilize their finances. They can either use fiscal savings to do so or issue debt on financial markets. She added that "apart from Bahrain, Gulf states have sufficient fiscal room to handle the shock with government debt moderately below 45% GDP". The impact on the long term is not clear. Some Western politicians and oil companies have called for more investment in fossil fuels in order to combat supply shocks. However, some analysts believe that renewable energy is the best way to guard against these supply shocks. Last week, France's TotalEnergies announced a $2.2billion joint venture with Masdar, a UAE-based renewable energy company. This is an early indication of how the oil crisis could accelerate the shift away from oil.
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Energy Minister: Greece will provide aid to industries that are facing increasing energy costs
Stavros papastavrou, the Greek energy minister, announced on Monday that Greece would offer a 100-million-euro ($115-million) aid each year for the next five to help smaller businesses and industries cope with rising energy costs. Papastavrou said that the country also received subsidies totaling 200 million euros through the EU Modernisation Fund. These will be given to the industries of aluminium, copper and iron, as well as wood, cement, and gbvcement. Papastavrou said in a television statement that the package was a significant one to boost competitiveness. "We are on alert, because it is obvious that the severity and scale of the Middle East Crisis affects us all." Greece is heavily dependent on Middle East oil imports. Papastavrou told an energy conference on Monday that Greece's energy supply is secure for the next few months, but any estimate depends on future developments which no one can predict. Athens announced?last?month subsidies for fuel, fertilisers, and ferry tickets worth a total of?300 million euros ($346.68million)?in April or May. This was to assist consumers and farmers. Greece has also placed a?cap on profit margins on fuel and on products in dozens of supermarket shelves up until the end June.
Gold rises as the dollar falls; Iran deal hopes to temper inflation and oil concerns
As the dollar eased, and markets assessed the impact of a proposed ceasefire in the U.S. - Israel war against Iran on oil prices and inflation expectations, gold prices rose in thin European trading.
Many markets in Europe were closed for Easter Monday, so spot gold was 0.1% higher than it had been earlier, at $4,678.58 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 0.6% ?to $4,706 per ounce.
Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst for Capital.com. He said: "We saw a gain in headlines about the potential ceasefire." The substance of that statement is questionable. However, it seems to have unwinded a little bit of the bid for oil.
Crude oil prices fell more than 1% but remained above $108 per barrel. Dollar index fell 0.1% making gold more affordable for those who hold other currencies.
The rise in oil prices can cause inflation to increase as businesses pass higher costs on, and central banks are unable to cut interest rates. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can reduce its appeal.
According to CME's FedWatch, traders have priced out the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve reducing rates this year, as opposed to expectations for two 25-basis point reductions prior the Iran War. Iran claimed that it formulated its demands and positions in response to ceasefire offers conveyed by intermediaries and that negotiations are "incompatible" with ultimatums or threats of war crimes. U.S. officials and Iranians have received a framework for a ceasefire plan, with Iran rejecting a reopening of Strait of Hormuz immediately after President Donald Trump's threat to "rain hell" on Tehran should it not reach a deal before Tuesday.
Rodda said that the next 48 hours were crucial, because if strikes are made on Iranian power plants it will be chaos and there is a guarantee of volatility.
Silver spot rose 0.5%, to $73.37 an ounce. Platinum spot increased 0.7%, to $2,003.59 and palladium was 0.7% higher at $1,512.80. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
(source: Reuters)