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China's aluminum exports are set to increase as the Iran war affects global supply
The Iranian war has tightened global supply, boosting margins and some forecasts of flat shipments have been revised higher. Before the war, the Gulf supplied roughly 9% of all global supplies. However, the Strait of Hormuz has closed most of this supply. Iran's recent attack on two of the largest aluminium smelters in the region has increased the risk of a shortage even if waterway is reopened. It's going to be difficult for damaged aluminium production lines to recover quickly, which will lead to some orders flowing to China. Kiki Xi is an analyst with Aize China and said that she was optimistic about the exports for this year. The war is responsible for a spike in the price of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange. The prices are up by 12% since the end of February, compared to a rise in Shanghai Futures Exchange of only 4%. The Japanese aluminium premium in the second quarter reached an 11-year-high, and the European aluminium duty-paid premium for delivery in April also hit a four-year-high. INTERESSES JUMP, FORECASTS CHANGED Analysts and traders said that inquiries from abroad have risen for China's aluminium exporters, the largest in the world. Profits are already on the rise. According to two Chinese traders who spoke under condition of anonymity, the export profit for aluminium sheets, which are used in everything from food cans and aerospace to aircraft, increased by?43% on a monthly basis to $590 per ton as recently as March 26. Fastmarkets projects a volume increase of 12%-18% for Chinese aluminum exports, compared to the previous outlook that was flat or slightly negative. Broker Wuchan Zhongda?Futures raised its forecast for aluminum exports from 5% to 10%. Aladdiny, the consultancy, now forecasts that exports of aluminium products fabricated will increase by 5%-10% between?2026 and its previous forecast of flat growth prior to World War II. DEMAND WEAKEN AT HOME The industry will benefit from higher prices abroad, as the domestic demand has been low, especially in the real estate sector. Beijing's removal of the export tax rebate by the end of 2024 also has hurt. Inventory in Shanghai is free to export due to a lack of domestic demand On March 27, it reached its highest level since April 2020, at 454,571 tonnes. LME and U.S. Comex aluminum stocks are comparable. Have sharply contracted.
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Prime-time disappointment
Ankur Banerjee gives a look at what the day will bring for the European and Global markets. In a 19-minute prime-time speech, U.S. president Donald 'Trump' squashed the hopes of investors that the Middle East 'war would be over soon. He said Washington would hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three week. Investors quickly returned to their March actions: selling stocks, buying U.S. dollar and driving oil prices higher. Trump called on countries that depend on Gulf oil to take the lead and assume the burden of opening the waterway that Iran has choked on, which some market observers have described as the worst global energy crisis in history. After a brutal month in which soaring oil costs sent risk assets into a tailspin, the prospect of an ending to the war has lifted global shares and knocked down the dollar's recent highs. After the speech, traders quickly reversed their positions. They were bracing themselves for a prolonged shock in energy prices that could lead to stagflation. Brent crude futures have risen above $100 per barrel once again, while U.S. stocks futures and European futures both point to a sour opening with both falling more than 1%. In Asia, which has been hit the hardest by the oil crisis, as the majority of economies in this region heavily depend on energy from the Middle East. Almost all Asian bourses have fallen sharply. U.S. Treasuries also fell. Investors can de-risk a lot, as most Western markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. They don't want to get caught by weekend volatility. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. * U.S. jobless data Weekly EIA estimate of U.S. Natural Gas in Underground Storage
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Takeaways from Trump’s speech on Iran
In a Wednesday evening prime time address, President Donald Trump defended his handling the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran that has been ongoing for a month. He said the U.S. Military was close to completing its mission. Trump also reiterated his threats to bomb 'the Islamic Republic to the Stone Age. He gave his 19-minute address against the backdrop of rising global oil prices, and his low approval rating. What are some key points to remember? Looking for an exit, but not quite yet Trump, faced with a war-weary American public, and slipping poll numbers, claimed that the U.S. destroyed Iran's air force and navy, crippled their ballistic missile program, and would continue hitting them "extremely" in the next two to three weeks. He did not provide a timeline for the end of hostilities, despite saying that the U.S. Military was "on track" to achieve its objectives. He also suggested that the war might escalate if Iranian officials did not agree to U.S. conditions during negotiations. Strikes on Iran's oil and energy infrastructure could be possible. Trump's speech, in which he reiterated threats and sent mixed messages, may not do much to calm the financial markets or ease the fears of the American public who have shown little support for America's largest military operation since 2003's invasion of Iraq. The conflicting signals Trump has sent throughout the conflict only add to the confusion. One moment he calls for a diplomatic solution and the next, he threatens to rain more destruction on Iran as the U.S. military continues to build up in the region. The Strait of Hormuz Trump's remarks on Wednesday weren't clear on whether U.S. Military operations could end before Iran reopened Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway is where it has a chokehold, causing the worst energy shock ever experienced in the world. He called on countries that depend on Gulf oil, and not the U.S. to "take the initiative" and shoulder the burden of reopening this waterway. Western allies have, however, resisted his call to join a war he and Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu began without consulting them. Trump did not mention in his speech that he was considering withdrawing from NATO because of what he believes is its failure to provide support for the U.S. during the Iran conflict. Analysts say that Iran could gain significant influence over the Strait, which is the route for a quarter of all oil and gas exports in the world. Washington's Gulf Allies could also be resentful of a quick U.S. withdrawal, as they would have to deal with a hostile, wounded neighbor. MISSION COMPLETE? Trump praised the U.S. Military's success in the conflict, but there are still questions about whether or not he achieved his main goal at the beginning of the war - closing off Iran's pathway to a nuclear weapon. Iran has a'stockpile' of highly enriched uranium which could be converted to bomb-grade, but this is thought to have been buried by U.S. and Israeli bombings in June. Trump reversed his position on Wednesday, saying he didn't care about the material anymore because it was "so deep underground" and U.S. Satellites could monitor the area. Iran has never claimed to be seeking a nuclear weapon. He threatened new airstrikes if Iran tried to move the stockpile but did not mention sending special forces to seize the stockpile. U.S. officials said that this was an option under consideration. Any deployment of ground forces would anger the majority of Americans. Trump claims to have destroyed Iran's conventional weapons, but the country has shown that it can still use its missiles and drones against Israel and U.S. Gulf Allies as well as American military bases on their soil. Trump's calls for the removal of Iran's theocratic leaders have not been fulfilled. U.S. and Israeli air strikes have killed many top leaders including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei. However, they were replaced by more hard-line successors including Khamenei’s son. U.S. Intelligence has determined that the Iranian government is largely intact. DOMESTIC POLITICS Trump's first prime-time speech since the start of the war on February 28 was initially seen as an attempt to ease Americans' concerns over the interventionist tendencies of a President who ran for his second term based on a pledge to keep the U.S. away from "stupid", military interventions. Trump's advisers pressed him to demonstrate to the public that kitchen-table matters are a priority. But he only gave a nod and appeared to dismiss Americans' economic worries as temporary, and certain to disappear once the war was over. He said that many Americans were concerned about the recent increase in gasoline prices at home. This short-term rise is the direct result of deranged terrorist attacks by the Iranian regime against commercial oil tanks of neighboring countries, which have nothing to do with the conflict. Trump's MAGA has mostly stayed with him. However, his grip on the political base may weaken as long as economic impacts, such high gas prices and his Republican Party, scramble to maintain control of Congress in November's Midterm Elections. A /Ipsos survey completed on Monday revealed that Trump's approval rating overall has dropped to 36%. This is the lowest level since his return to White House. Trump did not provide a definitive timeline for the end of the war in his television appearance. The dollar strengthened, and oil prices rose. Market reaction is a reflection of Trump's dissonant message: he wants to reassure Americans the war will be over soon, but at the same time threatens Iran with new strikes and suggests he might leave without opening the Strait of Hormuz. FLAT PERFORMANCE? The Wednesday address gave Trump a rare opportunity to reconnect with his voters and gain primetime viewers. He entered the White House through double doors. He spoke for 19 minutes in a subdued voice in a dimly-lit room, and stuck to the same old talking points, rather than clarifying the reasons why he wanted to take the U.S. into war. The former reality star was not in his usual public role. He was probably in front of the largest audience since the State of the Union Address, which was held on February. (Reporting by Matt Spetalnick, Humeyra Pauk and Trevor Hunnicutt. Additional reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt. Editing by Don Durfee & Thomas Derpinghaus).
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Australia offers businesses 693 million dollars in low-cost loans to ease fuel price pressure
The Australian government will provide up to A$1billion ($693m) in interest-free loans to businesses that are critical to the economy, such as transport operators and fertiliser manufacturers, according to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The package of support comes at a time when the Iran War disrupts global energy supply, driving prices up and fueling concerns about availability for a country which imports over 80% its fuel. The fear of shortages in some areas has led to panic buying despite assurances from the government that there is enough fuel on the market. No government can guarantee to eliminate the stress this crisis will bring. We can be a buffer to the worst. Albanese, speaking to the National Press Club in Washington DC, said that we are a shock absorber in this time of global'shocks. Businesses that are considered critical to maintaining supply chains will receive cheap loans to help them deal with the financial pressure. Albanese stated that the decision to provide loans highlights his centre-left Labor Government's focus on ease cost-of-living, a prioritization that will shape the federal budget next month. It will be the most ambitious budget of our government to date. It must be. It is imperative. The government will also accelerate the rollout its A$5 billion Net Zero?fund in order to accelerate investments in clean energy supply chain and expand production such as?low-carbon fuels?such ethanol and biodiesel. Albanese warned that in a rare address to the nation on Wednesday, the economic fallout of the Middle East war would continue for months and impact both families?and business. He also cautioned that "the months ahead may not be easy". To reduce supply pressures and keep prices down, Labor has already released petrol and Diesel?from the domestic reserves and halved fuel taxes. They have also?temporarily relaxed standards for fuel. Australian states have agreed to waive the increase in goods and service tax on fuel purchases. This will provide additional relief for motorists. (1 Australian dollar = 1.4438 dollars) (Reporting and editing by Renju José in Sydney)
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Takeaways from Trump’s speech on Iran
In a prime time address Wednesday, President Donald Trump defended his handling the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which has been ongoing for a month. He said the U.S. Military was close to completing its mission, while also reinforcing threats to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age. He gave his?19 minute speech in the face of rising global oil prices, and a low rating for himself. Takeaways from the article: Looking for an exit - but not quite yet Trump, faced with a war-weary American public, and a?sliding?poll number, claimed that the U.S. destroyed Iran's air force and navy, crippled its?ballistic missile program, and would continue hitting them "extremely" for the next two or three weeks. He did not provide a timeline for the end of hostilities, despite saying that the U.S. Military was on track to achieve its goals "very soon". Trump's speech, in which he reiterated threats and sent mixed messages, may not do much to calm the financial markets or ease the fears of the American public who have shown little support for America's largest military operation since 2003's invasion of Iraq. The conflicting signals Trump has sent throughout the conflict only added to the confusion. One moment he calls for a diplomatic solution and the next, he threatens to bring more destruction to Iran amid the continued U.S. buildup of military forces in the region. The Strait of Hormuz Trump's remarks?on Wednesday weren't clear on whether U.S. Military operations could be ended even before Iran reopened Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway is where it has a chokehold, causing the worst energy shock to ever hit the world. He instead repeated his call for countries that depend on Gulf oil, to shoulder the burden of reopening the waterway and securing it, not the U.S. which, he claimed, does not require energy supplies from the area. Western allies have, however, resisted the temptation to join a war which he and Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu began without consulting them. Analysts say that Iran could gain significant influence over the Strait, which is the route for about a fifth of the world's oil shipments and natural gas. Washington's Gulf?allies could also resent a quick U.S. withdrawal, as they may be left with a hostile, wounded neighbor. MISSION COMPLETE? Trump praised the U.S. Military's success in the conflict, but questions remain as to whether he truly achieved his main goal at the beginning of the war: closing off Iran's pathway to a nuclear bomb. The U.S. and Israel bombed Iran in June, and it's believed that most of the highly enriched uranium, which could be converted into bomb grade, is now buried underground. Trump reversed his earlier Wednesday statement that he did not care about the material, because it was "so deep underground" and U.S. Satellites could monitor the area. Iran has never claimed to be seeking a nuclear weapon. Trump claims to have destroyed Iran's conventional weapons capability, but Iran has shown that the remaining missiles and drones it still has can be used against Israel and U.S. Gulf Allies as well as?American military bases on their land. Trump's calls to overthrow Iran's theocratic leaders have not been fulfilled. U.S. and Israeli air strikes have killed many top leaders including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei. However, they were replaced by more hard-line successors such as Khamenei’s son. U.S. Intelligence has determined that the Iranian government is largely intact. DOMESTIC POLITICS Trump's first prime-time speech since the start of the war on February 28 was initially seen as a way to ease Americans' concerns about the interventionist tendencies a president, who ran for his second term based on a pledge to keep the U.S. away from "stupid", military interventions. Trump's advisers, who urged him to demonstrate to the public that he is a serious person, did not acknowledge the Americans' concerns and seemed to dismiss them as temporary. He said that many Americans were concerned about the recent increase in gasoline prices at home. This short-term rise is the direct result of deranged terror attacks by the Iranian regime against commercial oil tanks of neighboring countries, which have no connection to the conflict. Trump's MAGA has mostly remained with him. However, his grip on the political base may weaken as long as economic impacts, such high gas prices and his Republican Party's scramble to maintain control of Congress during November's midterm election, continue. A /Ipsos survey completed on Monday revealed that Trump's approval rating is at 36%. This is the lowest level since his return to White House. (Reporting by Matt Spetalnick, Editing by Don Durfee & Thomas Derpinghaus).
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Investor reactions to Trump's speech about Iran war
In a televised address on Wednesday, Donald Trump said that the U.S. Military had almost completed its goals in the war against Iran and that it would be over soon. He also said that the U.S. will continue to strike targets in the Islamic Republic for the next two or three weeks. After Trump's speech, stocks fell, the dollar strengthened and oil prices rose. Here are some comments from analysts and investors: RUSSEL CHESSLER, HEAD, INVESTMENT AND CAPITAL MARSKS, VANECK AUSTRALIAN, SYDNEY "The markets are not taking the speech positively. He has failed to instill confidence in the market if that was his intention. This volatility is caused by the question that is on all investors' minds: "When will this be over?" You will see the markets start to retreat when you believe it is going to last longer. When you believe that it will end soon, the markets go up. You can see the dollar strengthen when you're dealing with volatile markets, but I think that long-term it will continue to fall. "We are now in a stagflation scenario with lower growth and increased inflation expectations." PRASHANT NEWNAHA SENIOR RATE STRATEGIST TD SECURITIES SINGAPORE "The only question that matters is if the Strait of Hormuz opens soon. Trump's remarks don't suggest that this will happen as soon as the markets expected. The threat that the U.S. would strike Iranian power stations if no agreement is reached, and that this will return Iran to the Stone Age indicates further escalation. "Further the risk of further upstream counterattacks indicates?the Strait is likely going to be closed for at least another one month, and beyond that it's anyone's guess." It was interesting to note that he said the war with Iran will not last as long as previous wars, even if it does last a few more months. Expect USD and oil prices to rise as risk is reduced." ZHIWEI ZHANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT PINPOINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG: "The outlook remains highly uncertain." The only message that is certain is that the war would continue for at least another two to three weeks. Therefore, there will be more intensive bombing. As you can see, the market did not?take it positively' as the oil price rose and equity market futures fell. "I think that the hope of a quick resolution is fading." DANNY KHOO HEAD OF SALES TRADE,?SAXO SINGAPORE Markets expected Trump to announce a plan for ending the war in the next two or three weeks. He warned instead that the U.S. will strike Iran "extremely" over the next few weeks, and threatened to target Iran’s power infrastructure if a deal is not reached. These remarks increased the risk of escalation and increased the possibility for Iranian retaliation. Trump noted that the equity markets hadn't fallen as much as expected. He said 'it hasn’t been that bad', a comment which was followed by renewed pressure on equities. MIKE HOULAHAN DIRECTOR, ELECTUS FINANCIAL LIMITED, AUCKLAND "I didn't really think that there was much in the speech, other than the fact they will continue bombing for two or three weeks. This extends the timeframe for resolution. The next question was, "Does the fact that he has extended it and confirmed that it will take two to three more weeks put additional pressure on fuel supply chain?" We know that Australia's supply is getting tighter - will this force them to continue working from home? MATT SIMPSON, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, STONEX, BRISBANE: "Trump's tone was pretty depressing for a guy who has won so many battles in this war. Oil prices will remain high as long as Trump does not plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz, which he closed. We're waiting for another round of inflation, while Trump is leaving with his tail between the legs." JON WITHAAR, ?SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE: The market wanted to hear that there was no additional certainty or clarity about the timeline. The market will be put on defense by the fact that the government is threatening to strike infrastructure and has not ruled out boots on the ground. TONY SYCAMORE MARKET ANALYST IG SYDNEY "There was an assumption that we would see a continued de-escalation. We had seen this in the last couple of days. We saw that in general, but the market was looking for a bit more. "There was not much new to me. "(The Strait of Hormuz remains) the variable in everyone's playbook. "When we look at the stock market, you can see a reaction of buy the rumour and sell the fact, but for crude oil, the opposite is true." The markets will be in a state of uncertainty for another two to three weeks. KAZUNORI TATEBE IS THE CHIEF STRATEGIST AT DAIWA ASSET MANAGEMENT IN TOKYO. Trump did not mention any details about when the Strait of Hormuz would be open for passage or the end of the war in his speech. Still, there are uncertainties. The domestic equity market will not continue to rise. We need to take another step, such as the possibility of opening the Strait. Positively, the war will not escalate." Reporting by Ankur Baerjee, Gregor Stuart Hunter and Satoshi Sugyama in Tokyo. Scott Murdoch and Jiaxing Zhen in Sydney, Sumeet Chaterjee in Hong Kong; Sumeet chatterjee in Sydney; Sam Holmes in editing.
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Iron ore hits a three-week low due to shrinking steel margins and slow demand
The price of iron ore fell on Thursday, to its lowest level in nearly three weeks. This was due to the shrinking margins for steel and a faltering market following pre-holiday stockings by China's top consumer. By 0202 GMT the most traded?iron ore contracts on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) had fallen 1.29% to $805 yuan ($116.94), a metric tonne, after having touched its lowest level since March 12, at 793.5. As of 0152 GMT, the benchmark May iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was $0.8% lower, at $105.45 per?ton. Earlier, it hit its lowest price since March 16, at $104.50. Xinli chu, an analyst at broker China Futures, explained that the 'risk premium', which had been incorporated into the price for fear of a prolonged conflict in the 'Middle East, has now receded. Signs of a possible de-escalation of the conflict have also emerged, causing a lowering of the?price. U.S. President Donald Trump stated in a televised address that the U.S. Military had almost completed its goals set out for it to achieve in the war against Iran and that this conflict would be soon ending. Chu said that "Falling Energy Prices undermined Cost Support for Ore. Moreover, Steel Margins have been squeezed due to?rising Raw Material costs, which makes mills less willing accept high ore price." Chu stated that some domestic steselmakers had already finished restocking feedstocks for the Qingming Festival, which will take place April 4-6. The resulting 'diminishing of spot liquidity' has pushed up prices. A Singapore-based trader, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, also said that the need to rebalance capital at the beginning of the month could lead to a'sale off the ore side. Coke and coking coal,?other steelmaking components, decreased by 0.7% and?0.38% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline. Rebar fell 0.86%; hot-rolled coil dropped 0.64%; and stainless steel and wire rod both lost 0.74%. ($1 = 6.8837 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Grain futures in Chicago and soybeans are rising after Trump's vow to continue Iran sanctions
The Chicago Board of Trade corn, soybean, and wheat futures all rose on Thursday after U.S. president Donald Trump's televised speech, where he stated that the?"war with Iran" would soon be over, but without giving a specific timeline. Trump stated on Wednesday that the U.S. would carry out aggressive attacks on Iran in the next two-three weeks, and was nearing completion of the main strategic objectives. Grain prices rose in tandem with crude oil, recovering from losses earlier when markets had expected a more dovish tonality from the president. As of 0209 GMT, the most active soybean contract was up by 0.36% at $11.72-3/4. Wheat rose 0.84%, to $6.02-12 a bushel. Corn?rose by 0.5% to $4.56-12 a bushel. Analyst?Vitor Pistoia of Rabobank said that "crude oil is a major factor in the price of grains and oilseeds." This means that higher fertiliser costs will lead to lower inputs, lowering yields. The result is a higher price to maintain profitability for farmers. Increasing oil prices will also encourage biofuel production and support oilseed prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on Tuesday that U.S. Farmers plan to plant more soybeans and less corn in 2026 compared to last year. Analysts predict that the impact of the Iran War on fuel and fertiliser prices will prompt farmers to shift more acres from corn to soyabeans than the USDA had projected. Wheat futures have been boosted by the persistent dryness of the U.S. Plains. This is threatening to reduce winter crop yields. Forecasters said that rains would be beneficial in the U.S. southeast Plains but dryness in western areas will continue to stress crops. Commodity funds sold CBOT soybeans, corn, wheat and soyoil at a net loss, traders reported on Wednesday. Reporting by Ella Cao, Lewis Jackson and Harikrishnan NaAir; editing by Rashmia Aich and Harikrishnan NAI
Results of major smelters show no sign of China's plans to reduce copper production
The 'earnings outlooks' of major Chinese copper smelters show that they plan to 'raise or maintain production in 2026 despite the public commitment made by a state-linked industry association last year to cut production by more than 10%.
Last year, the?China Smelter Purchase Team(CSPT), a team of 16 of China's top copper smelters agreed to reduce production in order to combat overcapacity and lower processing fees for copper concentrats.
Three major?smelters who are all CSPT-members have not reduced their output guidance in the last few weeks.
Jiangxi Copper, China's largest copper smelter has raised its production guidance for 2026 copper cathodes from 2,38 million to 2,39 million metric tons.
Yunnan Copper also increased its guidance for 2026 to?1.71million tons, up from the 1.64million tons produced last year.
Daye Nonferrous published their 2025 results on Wednesday. They showed a slight decline in 2026, to 713,000 tonnes, from the output of 716, 000 tons last year.
Three smelters in the country produced 14.72 million tonnes of refined copper.
Due to the tight supply of feedstock in 2025, treatment and refining fees (TC/RCs) that are paid by miners for processing copper concentrates to smelters collapsed, forcing smelters pay miners.
This week, the CSPT 'didn't?set quarterly TC/RC guidelines for the fifth consecutive time. This figure has traditionally been used as a benchmark in China for the price of spot copper concentrate.
Due to negative fees, Chinese smelters are now reliant on the profits of by-products. Sulphuric Acid is a good example. For example, sales of sulphuric acids accounted for 14,65% of the total gross profit at Jiangxi Copper in 2025, more than the combined gross profit from finished copper products, copper rods and wires, and copper rods and wires. Reporting by Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan, Shanghai; editing by Sonali Paul
(source: Reuters)