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Gold consolidates following record rally; focus on US-China discussions
Gold prices edged higher on Monday, after a record rally. Investors waited for clues from the upcoming U.S. China trade talks. As of 0951 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.3% to $4,259.84 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.5%, to $4275 per ounce. Silver spot rose by 0.5%, to $52.12, after falling 4.4% the previous day after reaching a record high at $54.47. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that gold was still very bullish. TRUMP'S 100% CHINA THREAT AND EXPECTED FEDER RATE CUT Hansen said that the U.S. shutdown of government is still providing some support, while the U.S. China meeting scheduled for next week will be a key focus. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Friday that his proposal of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods would not be sustainable. He also added that he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping within two weeks. Gold, which hit record highs multiple times this year, most recently Friday at $4,378.69, gained more momentum last week when the U.S. announced steep tariff increases over China's controls on rare-earths exports. It fell by more than 1.8% after Trump's remarks. The U.S. CPI, which has been delayed because of the government shutdown in the U.S., will be released Friday, just days before the Fed policy meeting on October 28-29. Core inflation is expected to have remained at 3.1% for September. It is widely believed that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again by a quarter of a percentage point. In the third quarter, China's economy grew at its slowest pace in over a year. Hansen stated that "the weakness in the Chinese real estate market is a major source of support for gold." Palladium fell 1.4% and platinum dropped 0.9%, to $1.595.85 an ounce.
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Sandvik's quarterly profit missed forecasts but orders rose on strong mining demand
Sandvik, a Swedish company, reported on Monday a lower-than-expected decline in its core profit for the third quarter. However orders increased due to strong demand for mining equipment. In a statement, CEO Stefan Widing stated that Sandvik successfully mitigated tariffs by implementing surcharges in the third quarter. This strategy was repeated from the previous three month. He added that currency headwinds had a negative impact on the company's earnings margin. The company's shares, which are often viewed as an indicator of industrial demand due to the wide customer base it has and its short lead time for orders, rose 3.3% at 956 GMT. In a LSEG poll, analysts predicted that the operating profit before amortization and items affecting comparableity would be 5.54 billion Swedish crowns (588.39 millions) in the period July-September. This is 6% lower than a year ago. However, organically, orders grew by 16%. Sandvik reported that orders at its Machining and Intelligent Manufacturing division, which accounts for around 40% of the group's revenue, have been stable in the fourth-quarter.
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Venezuela increases coal production in search of income, despite environmental concerns
Venezuela is scrambling to find income in the face of U.S. sanction. It has recently restarted its coal production with a Turkish firm and plans to export over 10 million tons this year. According to Indigenous leaders, members of local communities and a source from the company with knowledge of operations, the mining takes place without any environmental safeguards. Venezuela's government claims that the economy grew by 8.7% during the third quarter. However, many international companies left the country long ago. Inflation is expected to hit 200% in this year, and foreign oil companies are required to obtain U.S. operating licenses. The coal industry is not subject to sanctions. This allows the joint venture Carboturven between Venezuelan state-owned Carbozulia, and Glenmore Dis Ticaret Ve Madencilik A.S., to reactivate. The government of President Nicolas Maduro has made other efforts to diversify Venezuela's economy and move away from oil. This is just the latest example in Latin America of coal mining continuing, even though countries such as Chile are turning to renewable energy. COAL PUSH FOR STATED COFFERS Maduro stated earlier this year that it was time to unite forces and build a prosperous nation. He added that coal would accelerate the growth. Carbozulia and Glenmore formed a joint venture, Carboturven, in 2018. Five sources within the company claim that production will resume at two mines in the north-west of the country – Paso Diablo, and Mina Norte – in December 2024, after several years being suspended. Maduro also approved plans for a second coal project to be developed in Falcon State. According to Carbozulia data, Venezuela's coal output was around 3 million tonnes in the first quarter 2025. This puts the nation on course to surpass the 8 million tons of annual production of the early 2000s. The coal from Venezuela that is high energy and cleaner burning is sold almost exclusively for export. One employee of Paso Diablo, who requested anonymity, stated that Venezuela exports raw coal to Turkey which then sells it to other countries in Europe. The employee stated that recent U.S. Navy strikes in the Caribbean had halted the exports and forced the company to stop production a week earlier when it ran out of space for storage. Carbozulia nor the Venezuelan government did not respond to our repeated requests for comments. Carboturven has no website and neither its Turkish partner nor the Venezuelan government responded to repeated requests for comment. Import Genius, a trading tracker, shows that Glenmore has registered as an exporter for bituminous coke from Palmarejo in Zulia. ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS Environmental groups including the local non-profit Sociedad et Natura say that the mines release sulfate and lead into the Guasare river, as well as cyanide, mercury, and cadmium. According to Sociedad homo et natura and other groups, mining has displaced at least 12 Indigenous and rural farming community in the last few years. They also fear that more communities could be affected if coal is expanded. Lusbi, a leader of the indigenous group and coordinator for Sociedad Homo et Natura, said: "They're trying to grab everything they can." Carbozulia's environmental document, seen this year, lists mitigation measures that could be used for coal mining. These include runoff treatment, emission controls, dust suppression systems, sprinklers on stockpiles and belts. However, it is not clear if these are actually in place. The Paso Diablo employee said that there were no environmental controls. The employee said that monitors had been installed in every community to measure environmental contamination, but these were no longer functional. Residents living near mines claim that coal dust damages crops and homes. In a telephone interview, an elderly woman living in a small community near Paso Diablo said: "You can't stay here any more." She asked to remain anonymous out of fear of reprisals. Residents sent images of blackened houses and drinking water containers, as well as people's feet covered in coal dust. An Indigenous person from La Guajira stated, "We are poor communities who live by herding and the animals are dead from dust," referring to goats, which are crucial to the economic survival of the community. "We are in extreme poverty, surrounded by wealth from coal." (Reporting and Editing by Rosalba o'Brien).
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Copper gains from strong China industrial data
Copper gained ground on Monday, bouncing back from a dip on Friday, as investors cheered stronger-than-expected China industrial output data and focused on the so-called fourth plenum - a key meeting of the Chinese leadership. As of 0900 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange had increased by 0.4% to $10,648.50. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed on Monday that China, a major metals consumer, saw its industrial output grow 6.5% in September compared to last year. This was better than the forecasted growth of 5.0% and lifted sentiment even though China's GDP grew at its lowest pace in over a year during the third quarter. Nitesh Sha, commodity strategist at WisdomTree, said: "The fact that production numbers are higher than expected is good news for the base metals sector." Shah said, "But I also think we still have the 'halo' effect from LME Week," referring to London's metals meeting last week. Everyone was talking about the possibility of a larger deficit in the copper markets. "I think it's likely that prices will continue to rise over the next couple of weeks." Analysts have revised their forecasts for market balance due to a series of mining disruptions. This includes the Grasberg Copper and Gold Mine in Indonesia. The plenum, which will take place in Beijing between Monday and Thursday, is where the top Chinese Communist Party officials review a proposed 5-year plan for 2026-2030. They also focus on U.S. China trade negotiations. Shah stated, "We are aware that discussions take place behind closed doors in China. Anything that is leaked out could affect the market one way or another." U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has said that he will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Malaysia to prevent an escalation of U.S. Tariffs on Chinese products. Other LME metals include aluminium, nickel, and lead. Lead rose 0.6%, and tin increased 0.1%. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Additional reporting by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson and Subhranshu sahu; Shailesh kuber and Harikrishnan Nair)
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European shares recover as US bank worries and trade tensions ease
European shares rose on Monday as concerns about the stability of U.S. banks eased. Meanwhile, fresh comments by U.S. president Donald Trump helped to calm down trade tensions and encouraged investors to move towards riskier assets. As of 0915 GMT, the STOXX 600 index for Europe was up 0.6% to 569.37. The benchmark index closed Friday nearly 1% lower. European banks gained 0.8% on Sunday, placing them among the top gainers of the STOXX 600. This was after U.S. bank stocks recovered in the previous session, following the quarterly results from regional lending institutions that helped ease concerns over credit risk. Trump, in an attempt to lift the mood, told reporters he would lower tariffs against China if Beijing also did "things", including resumed purchases of soybeans. There is optimism that credit concerns are easing, and that U.S.-China tensions in trade will also ease. "They are driving the European market higher today," Ipek Ozkardeskaya said, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. The STOXX Aerospace & Defence index rose 2.1%. This was a rebound from Friday's sharp drop when the news of an upcoming summit on the conflict in Ukraine shocked the sector. The majority of major regional indices were higher, except for France's CAC 40 which was down 0.1%. S&P Global lowered France's credit rating by a notch Friday, warning of political instability that could put at risk the government's attempts to fix its finances. Israeli officials announced on Sunday that a ceasefire had been restored in Gaza after two Israeli soldiers were killed in an attack. This attack prompted Palestinians to claim 26 deaths in a wave airstrikes, which they said was the most severe test of the truce this month. Swissquote's Ozkardeskaya noted that the news out of Gaza was one of the main drivers of the defence sector today. She also stated that, despite Trump's optimism regarding Ukraine, "he hasn't necessarily succeeded in ending the conflict so far... so that optimism isn’t on a strong footing to lead to sustained selling-off throughout the defense sector." Hensoldt rose 6.1% and Renk added 5.5%, while Saab and Renk both increased by 2.7%. Kering, among other movers jumped almost 4% following the agreement by Gucci's owner to sell his beauty business to L'Oreal at 4 billion euros (4.66 billion dollars). Holcim's stock rose 2% after a deal worth 1.85 billion euros ($2.16billion) to buy German walling system maker Xella. Forvia, a French auto parts supplier, lost 5.8% of its sales after reporting a drop of 3.7% in the third quarter. B&M, a British discount retailer, has seen its sales fall 17.4% since it cut its profit forecast for the year. In September, German producer prices declined more than expected.
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UN weather agency urges action on disaster warning systems
The World Meteorological Organization called for action on Monday to close the gaps in a system of global surveillance designed to protect people against extreme weather. It said that early warnings are especially needed in developing nations. WMO held a special conference in Geneva and stated that weather, water, and climate related hazards killed over 2 million people in the last five decades. 90% of these deaths occurred in developing countries. WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo made the development of early warning systems a top priority, but data from the U.N. Weather agency show that only 55% have increased their surveillance capability. The WMO released a statement saying that "many millions of people are not protected against hazardous weather, which has a growing impact on the economy and essential infrastructure." In three years, the number of countries that use early-warning system has doubled to 119. WMO's assessment of 62 nations revealed that half had only basic capability and 16% had less than basic. WMO has seen progress in Africa including Mozambique, Ethiopia and more, as they have websites that work and issue standardized alerts. Early warning is early action. Saulo stated in his opening address to the Geneva conference that "our goal is not just to warn the world, but to empower it." The WMO found that countries with limited early warning systems for multi-hazards have six times more deaths and four times as many people affected by disasters. Elisabeth Baume Schneider from the Swiss Federal Department of Home Affairs told conference delegates that climate change, extreme weather and other factors affect every country. She cited the example of how regular monitoring of a mountain ice cap allowed scientists to predict its impending collapse in May 2025. This led to the evacuation of Blatten, a Swiss village. She said that "permafrost melting will lead to more rockfalls and glacier collapses", making early warning systems essential. (Reporting and editing by Frances Kerry, Emma Farge, Olivia Le Poidevin)
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Russian titanium manufacturer VSMPO-AVISMA reduces working hours for some employees
VSMPO - AVISMA, the largest titanium producer in the world, announced on Monday it would switch some employees who are not directly involved with production to a 4-day work week. The company stated in a press release that it planned to move some employees, who were not directly involved in production processes but were administrative staff, onto a four-day work week. The company said that the decision was made to "maintain operational stability and preserve the highly-qualified staff of the business." The company has not stated how long these measures will be in effect. This is not an easy choice, but it allows our team to remain and we can prepare for the recovery of the market. "We consider this a temporary step and will provide additional opportunities for professional training to our employees," the company said. On October 9, it was reported that some of Russia’s largest industrial companies are putting their employees on furlough, or reducing staff. This is because the war economy has slowed down and domestic demand has stalled. VSMPO (Verkhnaya Salda Metallurgical Production Association) dates back to 1933, when it was founded to supply aluminium, and aluminium alloy, to the Soviet Union aircraft-building industry. VSMPO and Airbus received titanium from VSMPO before the launch of what Moscow refers to as its Special Military Operation in Ukraine. Canada will relax sanctions by 2024, allowing Airbus to purchase titanium from Russia. VSMPO AVISMA stated that "the company will continue to fulfill all obligations to its customers and partners by ensuring high quality products and maintaining their position as leaders in the global market for titanium". (Reporting and editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Mark Trevelyan and Anastasia Lyrchikova)
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The Gulf's most important markets are subdued due to weak oil
The major stock markets of the Gulf were sluggish in early trading on Monday due to weak oil prices. Investors also awaited further corporate earnings reports. The oil prices - a catalyst in the Gulf's Financial Markets - have been weighed down as a result of worries about a global glut. U.S.-China Trade tensions are also adding to the concerns over an economic slowdown, and a weaker demand for energy. Saudi Arabia's benchmark Index eased by 0.1% on track to extend losses from previous session. ACWA Power Company lost 2.2%. ACWA Power obtained project financing of 10.8 billion Riyals ($2.88 billion), for the expansion of Qurayyah Independent Power Plant, on Sunday. Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, fell 0.3%. Saudi National Bank, the largest lender in Saudi Arabia by assets, saw its share price rise 1.4% following a 20% jump in net profit for the third quarter. Dubai's main stock index fell 0.4% due to a drop of 1.5% in the top lender Emirates NBD. The banks announced on Saturday that ENBD would buy a 60 percent stake in the Indian private lender RBL Bank. The shares of the Dubai-based bank jumped more than 6% on news of the stake acquisition last week. In Abu Dhabi the index was flat. Qatar National Bank, the Gulf's largest lender and index component, lost 0.5%.
Investors weigh Trump tariff threats as they consider London aluminium flat
London's aluminium prices remained flat on Monday, as traders weighed the risks of a major war in trade after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would impose new tariffs of 25% on all steel imports and aluminium.
After two sessions of gains, the price of three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange was unchanged at $2,628.5 per metric ton as of 0600 GMT.
After reaching its highest level in early December 2024, the aluminium contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 0.2% higher on Saturday.
Trump announced on Sunday that he will impose new tariffs of 25% on all imports of steel and aluminum into the United States. This would be in addition to existing metals duties. It is another major step up in his trade policy overhaul.
Trump announced that he would announce reciprocal duties on Tuesday or tomorrow, which will take effect immediately and apply to all countries, matching the tariffs levied by every country.
The Australian trade minister has said that Australia's exports of steel and aluminum to the United States are important for shared defence interests and create "good-paying American jobs". Canberra is pressing Washington to exempt the tariffs.
Barclays stated in a report that "While steel, aluminium, and other metals appear to make up a greater share of U.S. imported goods from Taiwan, Korea, and India, our estimates are only around 5% at the most of their shipments into the U.S."
LME copper dropped 0.2% to $9.390 per ton. Zinc held steady at $2.841, while tin fell by 0.2% to $30,060. Lead was unchanged at $1.992.5 and nickel remained at $15,760.
SHFE copper rose by 0.5%, to 77.140 yuan. Nickel firmed up 0.1%, to 127.180 yuan. Zinc fell 0.1%, to 23.785 yuan. Lead gained 0.4%, to 17.160 yuan. Tin increased 0.2%, to 258,670.
(source: Reuters)