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China imports record amount of lead after Shanghai capture: Andy Home

China's imports of improved lead surged in August with the nation set to be a net importer of the battery metal for the first time considering that 2020.

The unexpected shift in trade patterns arises from a squeeze on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) lead agreement in July.

A lack of deliverable metal in the mainland market led to a scramble for Western lead and at the same time opened an import arbitrage window with the London Metal Exchange (LME).

China's resurgent import appetite has actually halted a long-running build in LME inventory.

A redistribution of global lead stocks is plainly underway. The concern is whether this is a flash occasion or the start of a. more structural modification in east-west trade circulations.

SHANGHAI SHORTS

China imported simply 540 metric tons of lead in the very first. half of 2024 however volumes jumped to 14,000 lots in July and an. unprecedented 53,000 lots in August.

It's possible that the record inflows in August included. some Chinese metal that had actually been sitting in bonded storage facilities. and re-directed to the domestic market. That in itself would be. an extremely unusual phenomenon.

The trigger for the modification in Chinese trade flows was a. July capture on the ShFE lead contract which was the climax of a. long-running fight in between Shanghai bulls and bears.

Tightness in the front part of the forward curve was. exacerbated by exceptionally low exchange stocks as on-warrant ShFE. inventory fell below 10,000 loads in August.

Additionally, short-sellers aiming to deliver physical metal. against their positions had a hard time to discover the ideal lead after. the ShFE tightened its bismuth pollutant limit in April. Multiple shipments were turned down by exchange authorities, forcing. shorts to look overseas.

Thankfully for them, there is no shortage of lead exterior. of China.

LME stocks of signed up and off-warrant lead rose every. month in between February 2023 and July 2024, when they peaked at a. integrated 350,000 loads.

The uptrend reversed in August, when combined inventory fell. by 57,000 heaps as metal was diverted to China.

SQUEEZE OVER?

The time-spread tightness on the ShFE lead market has. dissipated, the substantial front-month premium switching to a. discount rate in the middle of September.

That has actually made imports less appealing, which must cause. a tail-off in incoming volumes after pre-booked shipments show up. in the next few months' customizeds figures.

However, there has actually been no continual reconstruct in Shanghai. exchange stock. On-warrant stocks rose to 54,500 lots. mid-September however have since relapsed to 34,760 lots.

Overall ShFE deliverable stocks closed recently at 44,566. tons, still much lower than LME registered stocks of 194,300. heaps.

The ongoing east-west stocks imbalance leaves the Shanghai. market vulnerable to renewed tightness, especially if there is. a resumption of bull-bear hostilities.

BATTERY SCRAP LACK

Although China's shift from net exporter to net importer has. been triggered by a capture on the futures market, it is rooted. in physical market characteristics.

The world's largest manufacturer of refined lead has seen output. decrease this year with both main and secondary operators. experiencing tight schedule of feed.

Imports of lead concentrates were down by 9.2% over the. first 8 months of 2024 and main smelter output fell by. 4.5% over the January-September period, according to regional data. service provider Shanghai Metal Market (SMM).

The secondary sector, which processes refined lead from. battery scrap, has actually fared even worse with output down by 34.4%. year-on-year in September, according to SMM.

The issue is a lack of battery scrap due both to a mild. 2023-2024 winter season, implying less battery failure, and changes to. city government incentive schemes, according to analysts at. Macquarie.

Prices for battery scrap are higher than for primary metal. in parts of the Chinese market, compressing margins for numerous. smelters, SMM reports.

China doesn't permit imports of scrap lead, suggesting the. supply stress has relocated to the main metal sector of the. supply chain.

WORLDWIDE SURPLUS

Falling Chinese production is the primary reason the. International Lead and Zinc Study Group forecast international output. of improved lead to fall by 0.2% this year at the organisation's. biennial conference in September.

The group still expects a worldwide supply surplus of 63,000. lots this year following on a 106,000-ton surplus in 2023.

However, that's a minimal number in a 13-million ton market. and a forecast that is highly dependent on whether Chinese lead. production can recuperate over the balance of the year.

Moreover, the international image is currently masking a strong. divergence between China and the rest of the world. The burst of. imports over July and August hasn't completely fixed that gap.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a. columnist

(source: Reuters)