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Investors wait for Trump's tax bill to see if it will affect the stock market and dollar.
The dollar fell to multi-year lows and global shares dropped on Tuesday. It had just finished its worst half-year performance since 1970, and was ahead of the vote on President Donald Trump’s tax-cutting and spending legislation. The previous day, optimism about trade helped global share markets reach an intraday high. The Senate debate over Trump's proposed bill, which is estimated to add $3.3 billion to the United States debt pile, weighed down on sentiment. The European share market, which had a gain of 6.5% on a year-to date basis at the end of June, was down by 0.4% for the day. The tax-cutting and spending bill was expected to be voted on during Tuesday's Asian trading session, but the debate continued over the long list of amendments proposed by Republicans and minority Democrats. Trump wants to pass the bill before the Independence Day holiday on July 4. Investors are also looking forward to Thursday's key U.S. employment data as global trade negotiators rush to reach agreements before Trump's deadlines. Ray Attrill is the head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank. He said on NAB's The Morning Call Podcast that the payroll data due later this week would "have a significant impact, I believe, on the sentiment regarding the timing of Fed rate reductions". POLITICAL DRAMA Futures for the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq fell 0.2%, indicating a slight pullback in the opening of trading later. Tesla shares fell 5% or more in pre-market trade after Trump suggested that the government's efficiency department review the subsidies provided to CEO Elon Musk's companies. Musk criticised Trump's proposed budget and social media exchanges between the two began to devolve into personal attacks as of early June. This political drama, which could be a resurgence of the bear story just as shares are starting to recover, said Matt Britzman. Senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Tesla is still among the top 10 most valuable Wall Street companies, but its value has dropped by around a third since December, when it reached a record-high. Nvidia, another heavyweight, is also on its way to becoming the most valuable business in history. It's market capitalisation is approaching $4 trillion. In pre-market trading, the chipmaker's stock was down slightly. The Bank of Japan’s tankan business sentiment index and a Chinese measure of factory activity showed that the largest economies in the area were likely to weather the tariff storm at least for the moment. Japan's manufacturing sector also grew for the first time since more than a month, but a significant drop in demand underscored the difficult trade outlook for Asia’s export-dependent economies. The dollar was weaker against the Japanese currency dropping by 0.8% to 143yen. Its value against the Euro was also little changed at $1.18. This is its lowest level since September 2021. In the first half of this year, the U.S. dollar lost more than 10 percent of its value against six other currencies. This is the worst performance it has had in at least fifty years. Brent crude futures rose 0.7% to $67.22 a barrel on the same day, reversing a previous decline. This was due to expectations that OPEC+ would increase their output in August. Gold spot rose by nearly 1.5%, to $3352 per ounce.
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HSBC increases average gold price forecasts 2025 and 26
HSBC increased its forecast for 2025 gold prices to $3.215 from $3.015 and that of 2026 to $3.125 from $2.915, citing elevated risk and government debt. Gold is more likely to rise in value during times of geopolitical and economic tension. This helped spot gold reach a record-high of $3,500.05 per ounce at the end of April. On Tuesday, spot gold traded at $3.348.50/oz as of 1146 GMT. In a Tuesday note, the bank stated that it expects a volatile and wide trading range between $3,600 and 3,100/oz throughout the remainder of the year, and prices at year-end of $3.175/oz in 2025, and $3.025/oz in 2026. Despite divisions in the Republican Party, U.S. Senate Republicans were still working to pass the tax-cut and spending bill of President Donald Trump despite the expected $3.3 trillion impact on the nation's debt. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that as the deadline of July 9 approaches, countries may be informed about sharply increased tariffs. HSBC stated that, even if the gold price eases, levels above $3000 an ounce have strengthened gold's role of a safe haven as well as a portfolio diversifier. The central bank's gold purchase will be reduced if gold continues to rise above $3,300. It could also increase if gold falls below $3,000. The bank warned that further increases in gold prices above $3,500 would likely lead to a reduction in demand for jewellery, coins and small bars, especially in countries like India and China. Reporting by Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru and Ishaan arora, Editing by Jan Harvey & David Goodwin
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Sources say that DOGE is now focusing on SEC policies and SPAC rules.
According to two sources familiar with the issue, President Donald Trump's Department of Government Efficiency has led the U.S. Markets Watchdog to relax Wall Street rules regarding blank-check companies as well as confidential reporting by private funds. Sources say DOGE officials, who are currently focused on cutting costs at the SEC and have been focusing on cost-cutting, have sought meetings in recent weeks with staff about relaxing regulations that some companies feel are burdensome. This includes reworking Biden's rules, which were adopted last year, on Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and requiring private investment advisers to disclose more confidential data, so regulators can identify systemic risks. These efforts, which were not previously reported, are a part of the administration's broader deregulation push, which aims to boost economic growth through reducing government oversight. In an executive order issued in February, Trump instructed DOGE officials to federal agencies to identify any regulations that the administration might seek to eliminate. This could be for a variety of reasons, including imposing "undue costs" or burdens on businesses. Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity about confidential discussions said DOGE's participation in drafting new policy had rankled some SEC official, raising questions over whether or not a White House initiative could be included in the core work an agency that has long been seen as independent. The SEC adopted regulations for private funds and SPACs under the Biden administration to protect investors against unscrupulous investment promoters. These regulations also prevent unchecked risks to the financial stability of the private fund sector. Taylor Rogers said that DOGE worked with the SEC to "more efficiently maintain fair markets and protect everyday investors". Under President Trump's leadership Chairman Atkins and SEC will make sure that the United States is the safest and best place to invest in the world. SEC spokesperson said: "The SEC works with DOGE to ensure that public funds are used as efficiently as possible." The SEC and White House declined to comment on the 'questions for this article. Current and former officials said that the White House's priorities are rarely radically different from the regulatory agenda of the Commission, which is headed by a president-appointed chairman. Experts said that the SEC has been treated like any other financial regulator - through both legal protections as well as decades of norms - for a long time. To avoid any political interference or even the appearance thereof, the agency has historically limited communication with the White House about rules. Trump and other key players within his administration believe that these agencies need to be directly under the White House's supervision. Trump has also fired officials who claimed they were legally protected from being dismissed in many cases. Amanda Fischer, director of policy and chief operating officer for Better Markets Financial Reform advocacy group, says that any DOGE involvement with SEC rulemaking raises concerns about possible conflicts of interest and political influences overriding the expertise and staff expertise. It's outrageous to have outsiders who were not chosen by the chairman, having a voice in the rule-making process," said Fischer. Fischer was previously the chief of staff for former SEC chair Gary Gensler. KICK IN THE PANTS? The DOGE's efforts are not known to have any impact. The SEC's new leadership may have already pursued traditional Republican views, which are reflected in the majority of the pressure to deregulate. In fact, Republican SEC commissioners Mark Uyeda & Hester Peirce both opposed what they called unnecessary regulatory burdens on SPACs & private funds in the past. Already, some movement is being made to dismantle such regulations. Last week, the SEC was in discussions with U.S. exchanges to relax some regulations for SPACs. These are shell companies that raise money through an IPO with the intent of buying a private company. SPACs, or listed shell companies, raise money to buy a private company in order to take it public. This allows the target to avoid a traditional IPO. SPACs were a booming business, and Lucid Motors', DraftKings' and Trumps social media operations all used this strategy. Under Biden, the SEC cracked down on this sector due to concerns about the lack of diligence compared with the more rigorous IPO and hidden costs for retail investors. SPACs are once again gaining in popularity. In one case, several people involved in Trump Media disclosed plans to pursue an SPAC deal this year in the tech industry, possibly involving crypto. The people involved in the Trump Media transaction did not reply to requests for comments. SPAC advocates were concerned about the SEC's new rules. They cited changes like the removal of the "safe harbor," which had shielded SPAC sponsors against legal liability if their financial projections were unrealistic or misleading. Uyeda, Peirce and others objected at the time to the changes. They said the rule would unnecessarily inhibit an investor tool that could be valuable. The Republican commissioners were also against the additional reporting requirements, Form PF, for private funds that SEC and an agency voted on in February 2024. The SEC decided earlier this month to delay the compliance of firms with these new requirements. Experts have said they are in favor of reducing outdated or old regulations, even when DOGE is involved. Adam Pritchard is a professor of law at the University of Michigan. He said: "I daresay that it is a departure in practice. But whether White House influences is a risk or opportunity depends on how you look at it." "I'm quite open to thinking that the staff might need a little nudge to make them repeal some of the laws. I bet Paul Atkins shares that instinct. Reporting by Douglas Gillison, Chris Prentice and editing by Pete Schroeder. Megan Davies, Anna Driver and Anna Driver.
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Governor of Izhevsk: Three dead and 35 injured after Ukrainian strike on Izhevsk factory
Alexander Brechalov, the regional governor of Izhevsk region, said on Tuesday that three people had been killed and 35 injured by a Ukrainian drone attack on a factory located in Izhevsk. Brechalov didn't name the facility targeted, but an official from the Ukrainian Security Service had earlier said that two long-range drones, operated by the Security Service of Ukraine, struck the Kupol factory, which manufactures air defense systems and drones, and started a fire. Videos shared by a Ukrainian official revealed that a column of black smoke billowed into the air from the site where a fire had broken out at a clustering of buildings. The official said that the production facilities and storage warehouses of the plant were affected. Could not independently verify this claim. Brechalov claimed he had informed Russian President Vladimir Putin of the incident. Kupol is part of the Almaz-Antey conglomerate, a state-owned defense conglomerate. Izhevsk also houses the world-renowned Kalashnikov defence manufacturing concern.
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Copper hits three-month record high due to stronger China data
The copper price hit a three-month high on Tuesday, as traders said that a stronger dollar and the improved manufacturing data in China helped to boost demand. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.7% to $9,935 per metric tonne at 1008 GMT, from $9,984 earlier. This is the highest level since March 27. A private sector survey revealed that China's factory activities expanded in June due to an increase in orders, which lifted production after contracting in the previous month. The lower dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of currencies other than the U.S. dollar, and this could increase demand. Funds that trade using numerical models to generate buy and sell signals use this relationship. The low inventories also helped. Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses At 91,250 tonnes have fallen 66% since mid-February. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) are at 81.550 tons Since early March, the number of people who are enrolled in school has also dropped by 66%. In a note, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analysts said that "overall availability is tight on both exchanges. This reinforces the strong demand and causes backwardation." Backwardation refers to the premium paid for contracts with shorter maturities over those that are closer. The premium for cash copper contracts on the LME over the next three months Last week, the price of a ton was $319. This is its highest level since October 22. The price has dropped to $120 per ton due to large copper deliveries. LME data indicates that 1,500 tonnes were delivered to the warehouses of Gwangyang, South Korea on Monday . But cancelled warrants and metal that is earmarked for shipment indicate that another 31,975 tonnes are due to leave the LME. LME stocks are depleted due to the threat by President Donald Trump of tariffs against U.S. imports of copper. This has pushed prices up on COMEX and created a premium over LME prices. Other metals saw little change at $2.044, with lead unchanged. Tin rose 0.4%, to $33,850, and nickel fell 0.2%, to $15185.
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US Supreme Court deals blows to EPA, environmental protections
In a series recent rulings, the U.S. Supreme Court has dealt a blow to environmental interests. This includes limiting the authority of Environmental Protection Agency and relaxing environmental impact study requirements for proposed projects. While the Supreme Court's nine-month term was dominated by cases concerning President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and other issues, it also continued its long-standing trend of reducing federal protections for environmental in several rulings which could be a boon to businesses. Wendy Park, a lawyer for the Center for Biological Diversity, an environmentalist group, stated that these rulings "dealt enormous blows to the public health and safety and the environment." Park continued, "We will all suffer from unhealthy air, less clean water and climate warming." Park's group lost the biggest environmental case of the last decade, involving a proposed Utah railroad intended to transport crude oils. The conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh authored the 8-0 decision, which allowed federal agencies to scale back their environmental review of projects that they regulate. This boosted the project. The decision narrowed federal agency's environmental obligations under the 1970 federal law, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), passed by Congress in an effort to prevent environmental harms from large projects. Daniel Farber, University of California Berkeley law professor, said that the NEPA case could be the most dangerous to a major change of the law, depending on how lower courts interpret the ruling. Farber said that "the other decisions continue the process of eroding federal protection of environment." The big concern is the fact that this adds to a trend in favor of environmental protection at the Supreme Court. Seven Utah counties, along with an infrastructure investment group, have proposed to build an 88-mile-long (142-km-long) railway in northeastern Utah. The line would connect the sparsely-populated Uinta basin region to an established freight rail network. The National Environmental Policy Act requires that agencies evaluate the "reasonably predictable" effects of any project. Kavanaugh wrote in his article that agencies should only take into account the environmental effects of the project under consideration and not "effects from future potential projects or geographically separated projects." Kavanaugh said that lower courts should give agencies "substantial consideration" in determining the scope of such assessments. Park stated that "agencies approving pipelines or oil railroads now have more latitude when it comes to informing and involving communities about harms", but the court gives agencies responsible for protecting us against those harms more scrutiny. Kavanaugh's opinion was backed by four conservative justices. The three liberal justices also weighed in on the case. Justice Neil Gorsuch was not involved in this case. Professor James Coleman of the University of Minnesota Law School said that the ruling could be a turning-point after lower courts have been using the National Environmental Policy Act for the past 50 years to "raise higher and higher barriers to new infrastructure." Coleman said that the ruling sent a signal to lower courts to defer to agencies who exercise discretion granted by Congress. Coleman stated that the court had demanded "a course correction" from lower courts. The court emphasized how courts' refusal to defer to agencies' environmental reviews is holding up important infrastructure projects. Coleman said that it remains to be determined whether lower courts will accept the course correction. REINING IN EPA In recent years, the Supreme Court has, with its conservative majority of 6-3, taken a sceptical view towards the broad powers granted to federal regulatory agencies. It has also restricted the power of the EPA. It blocked the EPA’s “Good Neighbor” rule in 2024. The rule was designed to reduce ozone emission that could worsen air quality in neighboring states. In 2023 it weakened the EPA's ability to protect wetlands, and combat water pollution. In 2022 it imposed limitations on the EPA’s authority to reduce carbon emissions from coal and gas fired power plants under the Clean Air Act. In March, the court again confined the EPA in a case involving a permit issued by the EPA for a wastewater-treatment facility owned and operated by the City of San Francisco. The facility empties into Pacific Ocean. The city sued the EPA to contest certain restrictions included in the permit. The ruling by conservative Justice Samuel Alito was 5-4. It found that the EPA exceeded its authority in accordance with the Clean Water Act, an anti-pollution legislation, by imposing too vague requirements to permit holders relating to the water quality standards of the receiving body. The three liberal justices and conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett dissented. Howard University School of Law Professor Carlton Waterhouse stated that the ruling stripped the EPA of a commonly used mechanism to restrict the discharge of contaminants into federally regulated water at the level required for such waters meet their designated uses. Waterhouse stated that the court's decision was a setback for both the EPA and those of us who are in need of clean water. Waterhouse said that the EPA, for example, lost an important tool to ensure that the waters are clean enough to allow these activities to continue. Waterhouse, a former EPA official under Democratic President Joe Biden, warned that some areas of the United States may experience deteriorated water quality as a result of a "workaround" to protect state water standards without a tool they've used for decades. In a ruling written by Kavanaugh, 7-2, in June, the Justices sided with the fuel producers who had opposed California's vehicle emission standards and electric cars, under a federal law on air pollution. They agreed that their legal challenge against the mandates shouldn't have been dismissed. The court overturned the decision of a lower-court to dismiss a lawsuit filed by a Valero Energy affiliate and groups representing the fuel industry. The lower court concluded that plaintiffs lacked legal standing to challenge a Biden era EPA decision allowing California to set its own regulation. Waterhouse stated that it was not surprising to allow these parties into the lawsuit. The court has expanded standing for business in the past.
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Sources say that the EU wants to see early relief in key sectors of any US trade agreement
EU diplomats said that the EU wants to see immediate relief on tariffs for key sectors in any deal reached with the United States by the deadline of July 9. However, even the best-case scenario would include some degree of asymmetry. This week, the European Commission, which coordinates EU Trade Policy, insisted on three points at Washington, even though it accepted that the U.S. Base Tariff of 10% was unavoidable. Both sides are working toward an agreement in principal, and the final details will be worked out later. EU diplomats said that in a brief negotiation document Washington sent to Brussels last week, it only stated what the Trump administration expected from Brussels, without making any concessions. Brussels is looking for a deal that will return tariffs at pre-Trump levels, or zero-for-zero in the case of a previous tariff. This includes lower tariffs on alcoholic beverages, medical devices and other products that the U.S. imposes a 10% tariff. The EU wants to negotiate a deal that covers commercial aircraft, parts and pharmaceuticals as well as semiconductors. These are all sectors where the U.S. has been investigating but have not yet imposed additional duties. Trump announced in June that the pharma duty announcement would be made "very soon". The diplomats stated that the EU also wants President Donald Trump to make a concession on the 25% tariff placed on automobiles and auto parts. They also want an immediate reduction in the U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum, which Trump increased from 50% to 75% in June. One diplomat stated that cars are a "redline" for the EU. Brussels and Washington, however, have different goals. Trump wants to revive U.S. automobile production, while Brussels wants markets opened for its sector which is suffering from high energy costs and Chinese competition. Thirdly, EU officials want tariff relief to begin as soon as a preliminary agreement is reached. They do not want to wait weeks or even months for the final agreement. Sources said that a number of EU members believed a deal lacking this element would be unacceptable. Later this week, EU trade chief Maros Sfcovic will travel to Washington with the head of the cabinet for President Bjoern Siebert to try and reach an agreement. Trump has suspended tariff increases until July 9 to reach agreements with global trading partners. He said that countries without a deal will see the 10% U.S. base tariffs on their goods increase to as high as 50%. The EU's rate is 20%. Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on all EU imports. The diplomats reported that a week before the deadline the Commission informed its 27 members of the possibility of all outcomes, including a framework agreement or higher U.S. Tariffs for additional sectors. If the goal of a reduction in tariffs upfront does not materialize, Brussels may have to decide between accepting significant imbalances and retaliating with countermeasures. A deadline extension could also be an option. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said Monday that any extension of deadlines would be Trump's choice. Deals must be completed by September 1. Reporting by Julia Payne, Philip Blenkinsop. Mark Potter edited the article.
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Gold prices rise on weaker dollar, US tariffs and fiscal uncertainty
The gold price rose by over 1% Tuesday, as investors sought safe haven assets due to a weaker US dollar and concerns over the fiscal outlook of the United States. As of 0824 GMT spot gold rose by 1.1% to $3,339.20 an ounce. U.S. futures gold increased by 1.3% to $3352.00. Gold prices fell for overseas buyers as the U.S. Dollar dropped to its lowest level in early 2022. The precious metals' safe-haven appeal has been boosted by worries over the U.S. financial outlook and ongoing uncertainty related to tariffs, as the Trump Administration keeps all options open ahead of the looming deadline in July," said Ricardo Evangelista. Senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades. "I expect the prices to rise in the near-term, attracting more buying interest when they reach $3,350. The next significant resistance level is around $3,370." On Monday, President Donald Trump expressed his frustration over the U.S.-Japan negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned countries that they could face a sharp increase in tariffs as a deadline of July 9 approaches. The markets are also focusing on the vote for Trump's tax-cutting and spending bill. This adds to an already uncertain market climate. Trump has continued to press the Federal Reserve for a rate cut. He sent Fed Chair Jerome Powell an international list of interest rates along with handwritten notes that suggested the U.S. should be between Japan's interest rate of 0.5% and Denmark interest rate of 1.75%. Trump's tirade against Powell and the Fed has caused investor concerns about the central banks' credibility and independence. The markets will be watching the ADP Employment Report on Wednesday, and the non-farm payrolls report on Thursday for any clues about the Fed's policy. Gold tends to do well when interest rates are low and is seen as an investment that can be relied upon during economic uncertainties. Silver spot rose 0.6%, to $36.30 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.3%, to $1334.67. Palladium rose 0.7%, to $1104.86. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise in Bengaluru, Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru)
Investors watch US trade negotiations as copper prices rise on a weaker dollar
The London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw copper prices rise on Tuesday, boosted by a lower dollar. However, uncertainty about U.S. Trade talks with major trading partners continued.
LME copper for three months rose 0.94%, to $9,961.5 per ton, at 0703 GMT. It had previously touched $9,984, its highest level since March 27.
The SHFE's most-traded contract for copper gained 1.09%, to 80,640 Yuan per ton. It had previously reached 80,760 Yuan, the highest since March 28.
The worries about the U.S. deficit have caused the dollar to weaken, which is supportive of commodities. My focus this week will be the U.S. Trade Talks," said a Beijing based metals analyst for a futures firm.
The dollar index fell by 0.35% on Monday to 96.86, putting it on course for its sixth consecutive month of losses and its worst half year since the 1970s.
The greenback is less expensive to buyers of other currencies.
Last week, U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said that the U.S.-China had resolved the issues surrounding shipments of Chinese magnets and rare earth minerals to the U.S. This further modified a May Geneva deal.
Bessent added that even if countries are negotiating with good faith on July 9, they could still be facing sharply higher tariffs. Any possible extensions would be at the discretion of Trump.
LME tin rose 0.4% to $33,850 per ton. Aluminium gained 0.29% at $2,605. Zinc eased by 0.6% at $2,735. Lead fell by 0.22% to 2,040.5. Nickel slipped 0.03% at $15,210.
SHFE tin rose 0.63% to 269.840 yuan. Aluminium gained 0.41% at 20,635 Yuan. Zinc fell by 0.8% to 22.255 Yuan. Lead dropped 0.26% to 17.100 Yuan. Nickel eased 0.21% at 120.720 yuan.
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(source: Reuters)