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MORNING BID-Churning Chips
What is important in the U.S. and international markets today by Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large of Finance and Markets The?U.S. The?U.S. It's not wise to read too much into the market movements this week due to the short week, the quarter-end trading quirks, and the looming payrolls reports, but there does seem to be some profit-taking going on, as well as portfolio reshuffling. Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my column about the seemingly unstoppable growth of the U.S. economic over the last 17 years, and how it has affected the bull market in equity. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast where I discuss the expected June job numbers. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear me discuss the most important news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. The Morning Bid Weekend is off for Independence Day tomorrow. CHURNING?CHIPS On Wednesday, the U.S. SOX index of chips fell by about 6% without any obvious cause. The S&P 500 index ended the day flat while the equal-weighted index reached new highs. Asia's stocks followed the SOX today with significant declines by major chip and tech equipment manufacturers in Seoul and Tokyo. Meta, which lost 15% of its value in the first six months of this year, was an outlier on the US market, gaining nearly 9% Wednesday following a report stating that the company was expanding its cloud computing business and planning to sell surplus AI computing capacity. The FT reported Thursday that 'OpenAI' would offer the U.S. Government a 5% share. Payrolls are expected to show a brisk increase of 110,000 new jobs in the last month, well above the "breakeven rate" needed to maintain the unemployment rate. ADP's report on private sector employment was slightly below expectations, but it wasn't enough to change Federal Reserve expectations. Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair, was ambiguous in his assessment of the situation in Portugal on Tuesday. He said that the central bank is committed to getting the inflation rate back to 2%. However he noted there has been an improvement in the inflation outlook in recent weeks. While Fed futures still predict a rate increase by October, crude prices continue to fall amid positive reports about the talks between U.S. officials and Iranian officials in this week. Brent crude traded at $71 a barrel in the early hours of Thursday. In Europe, the euro zone CPI headline came in on Wednesday at 2.8%. This was well below expectations of 3%. This gives some hope that the ECB will be able to avoid any further rate increases now that energy costs are declining. The yen also jumped from its '40-year low on Wednesday, as fears of possible Bank of Japan support jangled. Reports indicate that Japan is looking at adopting a more opportunistic currency intervention strategy to ambush speculative bets, rather than telegraphing their plans or drawing lines on the sand. Chart of the Day If AI will destroy job creation it hasn't happened yet. The U.S. economic sector posted its third consecutive month of high?job growth in May. Another 100,000 or more jobs are expected to be reported for June, when the monthly employment data is released on Thursday. The average number of jobs added per month in the last three months was 188,000, which is nearly triple what it would have been for the same time period in 2025. This figure is also about 150,000 higher than the most common estimates that the break-even rate, or the rate at which the unemployment rate remains constant, should be around 150.000. Watch today's events * U.S.: June nonfarm payrolls (8:00 a.m. ET), weekly claims for unemployment (8:30 am EDT), and May factory orders (10:30 am EDT). EDT) Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed, speaks Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent those of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan).
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Rebels in Indonesian Papua have killed an American pilot and destroyed his plane, a spokesperson has said.
In Indonesia's restive eastmost region of Papua, rebels shot and killed an?American Pilot and set a civil plane on fire in what a spokesperson for a separatist group called a "message". The low-level struggle for independence from Indonesia has raged for years in the resource-rich western part of Papua. As independence fighters improved their weaponry, they became more deadly and frequent. Sebby Sambam, a representative of the West Papua National Liberation Army, an armed group that is a separatist, claimed their troops had shot and killed American pilot Nicholas F. Gosselin, then set his plane ablaze after it landed at the Yahukimo area in Highland Papua Province. He claimed that the aircraft was "frequently dropping Indonesian soldiers and violating TPNPB's Ultimatum." Yusuf Sutejo confirmed that a plane carrying an American pilot and seven passengers had been found burning at a local Yahukimo airport, but he could not confirm if it was attacked by rebels or if the pilot 'was killed. He said that all the passengers were 'Papuans. Sebby stated that the attack on the Balinggama District of Yahukimo sent a message to both the Indonesian government and the U.S. Government for "failing" to address the "root causes of the conflict between the Indonesian Military and the West Papua National Liberation Army in Papua." Sebby warned that rebels will begin to conduct attacks if Indonesia continues to allow civilian aircraft into the rebel-controlled'red zones' of Papua. According to a TPNPB video, rebels announced the attack with guns, axes, and the "Morning Star", a symbol for independence. The U.S. Embassy in Jakarta didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Indonesia's transport ministry?said Thursday that the plane had one pilot and seven passenger and flew to Yahukimo, another city in Papua Highlands. The plane had landed when the communications stopped. According to the?website, this aircraft is 'owned by airline operator PT AMA. Its planes deliver food, fuel, and mail to remote villages of Papua. PT AMA didn't immediately respond to a comment request. In a high profile?case, Papuan Rebels kidnapped New Zealand Pilot Phillip Mehrtens, after he landed a commercial plane in a remote mountainous area in Highland Papua. They released him in 2024. (Reporting and editing by Anandateresia, Stanley Widianto)
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The central bank of Russia says that higher gasoline imports will not weaken the rouble
The rouble will not be weakened by the need for Russia to import more gasoline following Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries because exports of excess crude oil will increase, according to a top central bank official. Russia is importing gasoline from India by sea and plans to import up to 400,000 tons of fuel a month. This will help to alleviate the shortages which have caused long queues in filling stations. Calculations based on "market prices" suggest that these imports may cost around 60 billion roubles (roughly $767 million) per month. The rouble can be under pressure if imports are higher. However, Andrei Gangan of the Central Bank's monetary policies?department said that rising exports of crude oil that cannot be processed in-house would offset this effect. Gangan stated that although there would be an increase in imports in this category, the volume should not be large enough to change the trade trends fundamentally. Officials attribute the rouble's strength to Russia's distorted balance of trade and its weak imports which reduce demand for foreign currency. Since the beginning of June, the rouble has been losing 10% against the dollar. The currency gained 1.5% on 1 July after the central banks said that there was "less room" for a further cut to its main interest rate. The bank warned that fuel price increases could lead to an increase in inflation.
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Danish brewer Carlsberg files IPO for India unit
The Danish brewer, Carlsberg, has filed a confidential application for an IPO of its Indian operations, the company announced on Thursday. It joins a growing number of multinationals seeking to tap India's booming equity markets. The 'confidential - route allows companies to keep the IPO filings they make with the country’s markets regulator secret until the launch. Two sources familiar with the matter said that Carlsberg India's planned listing would not raise new capital, but it would allow its parent company to sell a portion of its stake. The brewery is a fully owned subsidiary of Carlsberg Group. This move is part of a trend where multinationals are turning to Indian equity market to monetise?investments rather than raising fresh capital. Hyundai Motor and LG Electronics both sold stakes via Indian IPOs attracted by the?relatively higher market valuations. Mikkel Emil Jensen, an analyst at AL Sydbank, said that listing the Indian business would 'unlock shareholder value for Carlsberg by?a higher separate valuation, as well as providing access to local financing for expansion, and help the brewer lower debt. Carlsberg's shares rose 2.5% by 0855 GMT. The planned IPO is also a test of India's capital market, which has cooled down in recent months following the U.S./Israeli war against Iran that rattled global markets. The second half of this year looks to be a busy one, with IPOs by Jio Platforms, and the National Stock Exchange of India. Jio's $3.8 billion listing could be India's largest ever, and NSE's much-anticipated debut is expected to rank among the biggest. In a statement, the company stated that regulatory approvals and market conditions will determine how quickly and when Carlsberg India's planned IPO proceeds. Bloomberg News, citing earlier sources, reported that the IPO could take place this year. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Emelia Sithole Matarise and Emelia Rumney; Additional reporting and editing by Emma Rumney and Mridula Kumra)
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Aluminum prices continue to fall as Gulf production recovers and risk appetite wanes
Aluminum prices continued to 'loss' on Thursday. They fell to their lowest level in'more than four months. This was due to a combination of a weaker risk appetite and signs that the supply is recovering more quickly than expected after?disruptions? from the Iran war. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.8% to $3,053 per metric tonne at 0930 GMT. This was the fourth consecutive session with losses. Earlier in the session it fell to $3.040, its lowest level since February 19. LME aluminum has fallen by almost?20% in the last month, as the U.S. & Iran move closer to ending their conflict that caused disruptions of metal production in the Gulf. This accounts for about 9% global?production. The most traded aluminium contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.4% to 22400 yuan (3,300.09 dollars) per ton. Investors have taken some of the risk premium off prices due to a easing in supply concerns following the 'ceasefire' and improved outlook for regional trade flows. EwaManthey, commodities analyst at ING, said: Many investors bet that the Middle East would slowly recover its metal production for use in construction, packaging and transport. Emirates Global Aluminium, one of the largest producers of aluminium in the world, said that it would be able to restore production at its Al Taweelah site sooner than anticipated. Norsk Hydro has announced that it will partially restart aluminum production at its smelter located in?Slovakia during the fourth quarter. The LME complex as a whole was in the red, as 'risk appetite' waned. Asian shares also fell before key U.S. statistics. Manthey said that "a stronger dollar is not enough to offset the caution in advance of U.S. Payrolls data or concerns over demand." LME 'copper' fell 0.6% to $13,223 per ton, after a deadline of June for a report on possible U.S. tariffs against?refined?copper? passed without a White House announcement. Other metals include zinc, which?lost?1.5% at $3446.50 per ton. Lead?fell 0.1% at $1,864, Nickel?dropped 1% to $15,195, and Tin - lost 0.5% to $51,385.
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Singapore's oil products inventories fall to a two-week low
Official data on Thursday showed that oil product inventories in Singapore, a key trading hub in Asia, have eased after a recovery last week. This was primarily due to a drop in stocks across the barrel. Enterprise Singapore's data shows that the combined onshore oil products stocks were 40.45 millions barrels during the week ending July 1, a decrease of 4.1% compared to last week. The weekly average for June was 37.5 million barrels. Following an interim agreement between the U.S.A. and Iran, the markets are preparing for a gradual improvement in supply as more ships begin to leave the Strait of Hormuz. LIGHT DISTILLATES AND RESIDUAL FUELS - LOG TWO WEEK LOWS Singapore's light distillate inventory, which includes naphtha, gasoline and other products, has fallen to a new low in two weeks, falling to 12.7 million barrels. This is because net gasoline exports have outpaced imports. There are also strong flows of gasoline to important buyers like Indonesia. The total gasoline exports were about 337,000 metric tonnes (about 2.8 millions barrels). This was more than the imports, which were roughly 249,000 tons. Indonesia alone imported nearly 267,000 tons. Saudi Arabia supplied about 82,000 tonnes. The naphtha inventories likely increased as imports of approximately 206,000 tons (1.8 millions barrels) exceeded the exports of around 175,000 tons. Cargoes arriving mostly from Russia, at 91,000 tonnes, were the main contributors. Middle East imports were missing. The residual fuel oils inventories have also dropped, after a strong recovery last week. Stocks totaled 19.65 million barrels (3.0 million tons), a 3.2% drop week-on-week. Total exports dropped 53.7% to 165,000 tonnes, while imports declined 15.5%. After weeks of absence some inflows, including from Iraqi and Saudi Arabia, were finally recorded. The tanks' outflows were mostly destined for the Philippines and Vietnam. MIDDLE DISTRILLATES STOCK IS AT A THREE WEEK LOW The middle distillates stock, which includes diesel and jet fuel, fell?for nearly a week, but was still above 8 million barrels. Net exports for both fuels, however, were lower week-on-week. Net exports of diesel and gasoil fell by about 10% while jet fuel and Kerosene's net exports dropped 60%. Exports to Australia, Indonesia, and New Zealand were mostly diesel and gasoil. The wider east-west spread of the last week has led traders to expect fewer cargoes coming from India in the near future, signaling better margins for sellers on the west of Suez markets. For the week, most of the imports of jet fuel and Kerosene were from China and South Korea.
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After a heatwave in Europe, firefighters battle fires in southern France
On Thursday, firefighters were fighting a number of 'wildfires' in southern France that had been fanned out by strong winds. The country was suffering from parched conditions following Europe's recent heatwave. Interior Minister Laurent Nunez reported that three 'fires', of which two broke out at the western edge the Mediterranean port of Marseille, scorched an area of 12,100,000 square metres. World Meteorological Organization warned last week that sustained high temperatures and low humidity, combined with dry vegetation, would increase the risk of wildfires. The largest wildfire was burning near the border of Spain in the Aude administrative district area, with 900 hectares?burned. High winds are making it harder for the 800 firefighters to fight the fire, according to local authorities. Firefighters were taming a small fire in Rognac, near the airport in Marseille. They had also brought another nearby fire in Lancon-Provence that covered 260 hectares under control. Local officials confirmed that there were no injuries. A witness reported that an acrid smoke smell hung over the area. Pilots of at least one landing flight in the city assured passengers that the smell did not come from their aircraft. More than 2,000 people evacuated six campsites in Frejus (a resort town) in the Var department, 35 km from Cannes. The reason was a forest fire. France's weather service has warned of another extreme heat wave next week. The health authorities estimate that the last heatwave may have led to around 1,000 deaths. Reporting by Manon C. Cruz and Alessandro Parodi; Writing by Sudip K. Gupta and Charlotte Van Campenhout, Editing by Timothy Heritage Joe Bavier Richard Lough Thomas Derpinghaus
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Hungary to clampdown on EV batteries after pollution case
Hungarian Environment minister Laszlo Gajdos threatened to shut down factories in the EV battery industry if they did not comply with environmental regulations. This is a significant policy shift for Viktor Orban, a right-wing politician who lost his power in April. Orban, who lost power in April, has 'bet big on EV batteries. He will attract foreign investment of EUR26 billion ($29.69billion) by 2021, mostly from South Korean and Chinese companies, making Hungary a hub in Europe. Environmental and health and security concerns about the plants were a key issue before the election. Centre-right rival Peter Magyar who promised to take a "tougher stance" on the sector defeated Orban by a wide margin. Gajdos stated in a late Wednesday Facebook post that "we must restore the balance between industrial development and environmental conservation." "In the last 16 years, this balance has completely shifted in favor of industry." He said that those who repeatedly violate?regulations and jeopardize the health and safety of Hungarians and ignore Hungarian law have no place in Hungary. He promised to increase pollution fines to Europe's highest levels. Laszlo Papp is the mayor of Debrecen, a member of Orban’s Fidesz Party. He called on Semcorp, a Chinese battery parts manufacturer, to leave Hungary’s second largest city, due to recent environmental pollution findings. Semcorp's production license was suspended by the regional government office in late June after authorities discovered large-scale aluminum pollution in water samples collected from monitoring wells around the plant. Semcorp's?Hungarian Management, which produces aluminium and lithium-ion plastic films as well as separator films for batteries, did not respond immediately to emailed comments. Zsolt Tarkanyi of the Magyar Tisza Party, Debrecen, stated on Facebook that after the revelations the city mayor must resign. Magyar endorsed this call with three victory symbols under the post. Tisza has seen its popularity?increase further since the elections. A Median poll shows that 73% of voters are behind it, compared to 21% who support Orban's Fidesz.
Gold rises on weak employment data and lower oil ahead US payroll report
Gold rose on Thursday, helped by a weaker oil price, soft jobs data and comments made by the Federal Reserve Chair that inflation risks had eased. This was ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Data.
As of 0855 GMT the spot gold price was up 1.2% to $4,078.25 an ounce after reaching its highest level since last June 23. After U.S. payrolls for?June, the metal snapped a two day losing streak and closed higher at $4029.89.
U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery climbed 0.2% to $4,090.70/oz.
Nikos Tzabouras is a senior market analyst with Tradu.com. He said, "The precious metal has rebounded today after Fed 'Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more dovish tone at the ECB Forum."
Warsh stated?on Wednesday? that the Fed is committed to bringing inflation back to its target of 2%, and warned against expecting a looser policy.
CME FedWatch shows that traders see a 63% probability of a rate increase by September.
Gold is a non-yielding asset that has a high opportunity cost.
Investors are now awaiting the June nonfarm employment data due at 1230 GMT for more clues about?the Fed’s rate path. A survey of economists revealed that nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 110,000 last month, after increasing 172,000 in May.
Tzabouras said that any?notable weakening of the data would help gold move towards $4,250. However, it wouldn't be enough to lift it out from bear territory.
The Fed will likely raise expectations if there are more than 100,000 new jobs. This would keep the bullion susceptible to further declines towards $3,500.
Oil prices fell for the third day in a row after Qatar announced that Iran and the U.S. made progress on indirect talks focused?on the Strait of Hormuz.
Lower oil prices temper inflation fears, increasing bets on the Fed adopting a more restrictive policy.
(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema) (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)