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Investors prepare for greater backlash due to Middle East conflict
Investors are increasingly concerned about the Middle East conflict, which has risen from a marginal risk to a major concern. They fear a prolonged regional war and power struggles in Iran, with implications for global trade, inflation, etc. U.S. and Israel strikes on Saturday?killed Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, causing chaos in the Gulf as Iran struck at Gulf cities. Airlines halted their flights, while tankers transporting oil, other products, and other goods suspended transit through Strait of Hormuz. First, there is uncertainty about what will happen next in Iran. This is due to the complexity of the Islamic Republic’s ruling system, its ideological base and the power that its Revolutionary Guards have. This complicates the outlook of oil prices, which have been increasing for weeks. They are now dependent on what oil producing countries do, and the passage of tankers in the Middle East, and this has big implications for global inflation and the safety of bonds that were previously deemed safe havens. Middle East tail risks have increased. The markets will move from geopolitical to regime shock shock and prolonged conflict to retaliation unless Iran wants to negotiate. Analysts said that a greater risk is the complacency of markets, which assumed that the fallout from this conflict would be minimal, as it was in Iran during last year's "12 Day War", or when Russia launched?numerous strikes on Ukraine. They also dismissed any comparisons with Iran's regime change in 1979. Brent crude has risen by around a fifth in the past year, to $73 per barrel. Investors have bought U.S. Treasuries as a hedge against a number of risks, such as Middle East tensions or President Donald Trump's unpredictable policies. Gold has risen 22% in 2026, after a record-breaking year. The main U.S. index is up only 0.5%. In a note published on Saturday, Barclays analysts stated that "history argues strongly for selling geopolitical premiums when hostilities begin." What worries us is that the investors may have learned about this pattern, and undervalue a scenario in which containment fails. Barclays analysts have identified other factors which could cause a fall in the stock market if the conflict escalates, including concerns about the artificial intelligence boom or private credit markets. We would not recommend buying any dips immediately - the risk-reward ratio does not seem to be compelling. There will be a good time to buy if equities fall enough, say 10% or more in the S&P 500. But not yet," the authors wrote. WHAT'S SAFE? The markets are expected to be volatile this week. The markets are ready for a limited surgical attack. Charles Myers is the chairman and founder at Signum Global Advisors. A geopolitical consulting firm. He spoke before the weekend U.S. and Israeli strikes. William Jackson, Capital Economics' chief emerging markets economist, predicts that a "prolonged conflict" could increase oil prices by around $100 and add 0.6-0.7 percentage point to global inflation. "In my opinion, the market had already overestimated inflationary forces. I don't think this will change a lot." The impact will be greater on Europe, given the proximity of Hormuz gas and oil post-Russia," said Tariq Denson, a wealth advisor at Zurich's GFM Asset Management. Gold has already been priced to reflect the maximum level of geopolitical risk. Eastspring's Goh cited the steady decline in U.S. Yields which has brought 10-year Yields to below 4%. He said: "I don't know if buying US Treasuries is a good investment, especially if the oil prices spike, and in turn, cause inflation. If this thing drags, I am not sure." Some analysts believe that Iran won't be able?to disrupt trade in the Gulf Region and the impact on oil prices will be limited. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research in New York said: "We wouldn't surprise if any drop in the S&P 500 Monday morning turned into a rally driven by expectations that oil prices will fall once the latest Middle East conflict ends." Gold could also double on Monday. He said that bond yields could fall because of both the safe-haven market and future oil price prospects.
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Drones attack Duqm port after hitting an oil tanker off the coast of Oman
The?maritime?security?centre of Oman said that a Palau-flagged tanker was hit on Sunday off the Musandam Peninsula injuring four people. This followed drone strikes against the commercial port of Duqm, which is located in the Gulf. These incidents are the first time that targets have been struck in or around Oman following a wave retaliatory'strikes' by Tehran against Gulf states following joint U.S. and Israeli attacks on?Iran, which have plunged the area into a war. In a posting on X, the 'Oman Maritime - Security - Centre said that the 20-person crew of the Skylight Tanker had been evacuated following the attack. The incident occurred 5 nautical miles north of Musandam’s Khasab Port. The centre didn't specify what struck the tanker. The centre said that initial information showed injuries of various severity among four crew members, consisting of 15 Indians and five Iranians. Oman's Musandam Peninsula shares control of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial?strategic?chokepoint through which approximately a fifth of global oil consumption flows. On Sunday, Oman’s state-run news agency reported the commercial port of Duqm was?hit by two drones and injured a?one foreign worker. The agency said that debris from another drone fell near fuel?tanks in Duqm. However, there were no injuries or material losses reported from this incident.
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US uses suicide drones, Tomahawk missiles and Tomahawks to strike Iran
On Saturday, the United States launched a variety of weapons against Iranian targets, including Tomahawk missiles, stealth fighters and, for the first combat time, low-cost, one-way,?attack drones that were modeled on Iranian designs. U.S. Central Command has released photos of Tomahawk missiles and F-18, F-35 and F-35 fighter jets along with details about the attacks on Iran as part?of Operation?Epic Fury. DRONES According to photos released by Pentagon, the U.S. Military said that it uses suicide drones which appear identical, based upon the photos, to the new LUCAS system (Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System), manufactured by Phoenix-based Spektreworks. The company didn't respond to comments. Pentagon: CENTCOM has used for the first time one-way drones modeled on Iran's Shahed. Pentagon says that Kamikaze drones will be inexpensive and produced by multiple manufacturers. The LUCAS costs around $35,000 per unit. Drones are becoming an important part of warfare, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced U.S. to adopt a new strategy known as "affordable masses" - having a large number of cheap weapons on hand. TOMAHAWKS Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles are long-range cruise weapons that are launched by?sea for deep-strike missions. Even in heavily protected?airspace, the precision-guided Tomahawk missile can hit targets up to 1,000 miles away. The missile is 20 feet long (6.1 meters), has an 8.5 foot wingspan, and weighs approximately 3,330 pounds (1.510 kg). RTX Raytheon produces the Tomahawk missile, which is not nuclear-armed and can be launched either from land or water. Pentagon budget data shows that the U.S. will buy 57 of these missiles by 2026. Each missile costs an average of $1.3million. The ongoing efforts to spend millions on upgrading the weapons, including their guidance systems, are also a constant. Raytheon has signed an agreement with the Pentagon to increase production to 1,000 Tomahawk missiles annually. The U.S. military and its allies have tested GPS-enabled Tomahawk missiles and used them in a?operational setting, including when the U.S. The UK and US Navies fired Tomahawk missiles on Houthi rebels in Yemen. FIGHTER JET U.S. Central Command released photos and video footage of F/A-18 & F-35 fighter jets used in the attacks on Iran. The F-35 stealth fighter is a fifth-generation aircraft that can evade radar detection while carrying precision-guided weapons. The United States has extensively deployed F-35s across the Middle East. The F-18 is a multirole fighter made by 'Boeing. It can perform 'both air-to air and air-to ground missions and carry a variety of?bombs and missiles. The F-35 can be equipped with a variety of missiles, including those that can destroy enemy radars and blind them. Israeli Air Force also uses the jets. (Reporting and editing by Deepababington, Washington; reporting by Mike Stone)
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Senior Israeli official claims that Iran's Supreme leader Ali Khamenei has been killed
A senior Israeli official said that Ayatollah Khamenei was killed by Israeli and U.S. airstrikes. He had turned Iran into a powerful anti U.S. force, extended its military influence across the Middle East, and crushed repeated domestic unrest. No immediate confirmation from Iran was given of his fate. On Saturday, the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran. They targeted its top leaders. This threw the Middle East in a war that Donald Trump claimed would eliminate a threat to U.S. security and give Iranians the chance to overthrow their rulers. Khamenei became Iran's highest authority after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. He was 86 years old. As Iran's supreme leader, Khamenei held the?ultimate authority over Iran's religious, political and military institutions. He also shaped domestic policy and guided foreign relations. Israel has long viewed him as a?destabilizing force in Middle East due to his support for Iran's network militant allies including Palestinian Hamas, and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Israel Katz, the Israeli Defence Minister, threatened to assassinate him when Israel and Iran fought a 12-day war in June 2025. He said that the supreme leader of Iran "cannot continue to exist." Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran's nuclear underground site. It killed senior commanders, nuclear scientists and most of the military leadership. Khamenei’s death is a further blow to a nation already struggling with war and economic hardship. Khamenei reaffirmed the conservative vision of Khomeini and quashed the ambitions elected presidents seeking more open policies at home and abroad. Under his reign, the authorities suppressed protests repeatedly and marginalized reformists who pushed for less confrontation with Western countries. Khamenei expanded Iran's influence in the Middle East and made it a regional anti-U.S. power. He supported the 2015 nuclear agreement?brokered by world powers?and pragmatist president Hassan Rouhani which temporarily eased Iran's isolated. Tensions grew after Donald Trump, the U.S. president, abandoned the agreement in 2018 and reimposed sanctions. Iran has seen its allies weaken since the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023. Israel dealt Hamas, Hezbollah and the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad heavy blows. After the 1979 revolution, the post of "Supreme leader" was created and enshrined into Iran's constitution. It gives a top cleric the ultimate authority over both the president and the parliament. The Assembly of Experts is an 88 member clerical group that is vetted by Khamenei's hardline watchdog. (Reporting and writing by Ahmed Elimam, Hatem Maher and Maayan Loubell)
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India prepares for a hotter than normal summer with more heatwave days anticipated
The weather office announced on Saturday that India will 'experience a warmer-than-normal Summer this year. Heatwave days are expected to exceed the season average in March and May. Mrutyunjay M. Mohapatra is the director-general of India Meteorological Department. According to IMD data, February's maximum and minimum temperatures were both above average. This makes it the fifth warmest February on record. Winter crops, such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas, are planted between October and December. They require cold temperatures throughout their entire growth cycle to produce optimal yields. A Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading house said that temperatures above average in March may?affect grain size and reduce yields of winter-sown crops. India, the world's second-largest producer of wheat and largest importer of edible oil, is counting on bumper crops in 2026 to export surplus wheat and reduce costly imports of palm?and soy oils. Mohapatra said that "above-normal heatwaves" are expected in most parts of the country from March to May 2026. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton: Rajendra Jadhav)
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Germany, France and UK warn Iran against attacks in the region
Germany, France, and Britain have condemned the 'Iranian' attacks on countries of?the?region on Saturday. They said that?Iran should halt its indiscriminate strikes and return to negotiations. In a joint press release, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that they "condemn Iranian attacks against countries in the area in the strongest possible terms." "We urge the Iranian leadership to seek a negotiated resolution and call for a return to negotiations. "The Iranian people must be allowed to decide their own future", they stated. Leaders said that they have consistently called on Iran to stop its nuclear program, curtail its ballistic missile?program, cease its destabilizing activities in the region, and cease its appalling violence?and repression?against its own people. They added that their countries did not take part in the strikes on Saturday and said they were in contact with international partners including the U.S.A., Israel and other partners in 'the region. They added: "We reiterate our commitment to regional stability and the protection of civilian lives." (Reporting and editing by Madeline Chambers)
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Market analysts react to US-Israeli strikes on Iran
United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Sunday, targeting its leaders and plunging Middle East into?a new conflict. President Donald Trump claimed that this would end a threat to security?and give Iranians the chance to overthrow their rulers. As fears of an escalation increased, the strikes put nearby oil producing Gulf Arab countries on edge. Tehran then responded by firing missiles at Israel. Four trading sources reported on Saturday that some?oil?majors, and top trading firms, suspended crude oil and gasoline shipments via Strait of Hormuz due to the attacks. QUOTES: VISHNU VARATHAN HEAD OF MACRO RESEARCH, ASIA EX JAPAN, MIZUHO SINGAPORE Iran warned that a broader state in which there are more spots of regional instability and attacks may be the norm. As long as the production and transportation of oil are subject to disruptions and attacks, oil prices will likely remain high. OPEC could be forced to increase production in order to offset. A 10-25% increase in oil prices is not outrageous - "even without the Straits of Hormuz blockade, which would be a 50% risk event." CHRISTOPHER WOONG, SINGAPORE, OCBC STRATEGIST: The strike has increased geopolitical risk premia for Monday's opening. It is easy to predict the immediate reaction: gold and other safe-havens will likely see a gap on the upside, while oil prices may also rise due to supply disruption concerns. Risk assets and high beta currencies may face an initial bout volatility, especially if headlines indicate potential retaliation. NICK FERRES, CIO, VANTAGE POINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE: Energy is still cheap. It's obvious that this sector is the one that has rallied on Monday. "And gold." SAUL KAVONIC MST MARQUEE, SYDNEY, ENERGY ASSESSOR: Early indications point to a larger scale attack against Iran with counterattacks that could escalate and draw in multiple Gulf countries. It is not impossible that the Iranian regime, if they feel threatened by an existential threat to their regime, will try and block the Strait. US and allies have military escort plans in place to protect the Strait. If Iran was to successfully disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, it could affect over 20% global LNG and oil flows. This would be a situation three times as severe as the Arab oil embargo of 1970 and the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Oil prices could reach triple digits while LNG prices may retest their record highs from 2022. The scope of intentional or unintentional escalation is wide and difficult to predict in such circumstances. Initial oil market reactions are likely to price in a higher risk of different scenarios that could disrupt supply. This can range from a modest disruption of 2mmbbld of Iranian oil exports to an attack on regional oil infrastructure to a disruption of the Strait of Hormuz passage in the most extreme scenario. The oil price could rise by several dollars if the conflict intensifies. It is unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for a long period of time. Even a partial disruption in oil flows could result in several million barrels of oil per day being disrupted, as tankers avoid the area. This would still push oil prices over $100.
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Berlin places Rosneft Units under trusteeship to control German Assets
Berlin is seeking to establish a long-term control of the German assets owned by the Russian oil company. The German government placed the German units of Rosneft under a trusteeship. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the German government was given a?trusteeship over the assets. This trusteeship must be renewed every six-months to maintain energy security. However, this creates a lot of uncertainty, especially with the PCK Schwedt Refinery that'supplies' most of Berlin's fuel. The latest move is an attempt to find a solution structural. It places Rosneft Germany (RDG), and RN Refining & Marketing, (RNRM), under the control Germany's Bundesnetzagentur, a German energy regulator. The regulator will take over control of the PCK Schwedt refinery, the?MiRO Karlsruhe refinery and the Bayernoil refining plants. The European Commission approved the new trusteeship system earlier this month. Rosneft Germany is one of Germany's largest oil refineries, with a capacity of 13%. In a press release, the ministry stated that "ensuring security of supply is the primary objective" for all actions taken by the German government towards Rosneft Germany. (Reporting and editing by Madeline Chambers)
Investors look for shelter in gold when the US and Israel attack Iran
Investors are closely monitoring potential safe-haven flows into bullion as a result of the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. Investors, traders and analysts have reacted to the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
EDWARD MEIR, MAREX ANALYST
I?think that you will see a sudden spike in the price of gold and oil. This will be a natural reaction to the unexpected onset of hostilities.
I think gold could rise by $200/ounce, but then fall over the course the day. Investors are largely uninterested in military conflicts. They are only concerned with whether oil supplies will be disrupted. Once the initial spike has passed, the initial rally usually fades.
Hugo Pascale, a precious metals trader at INPROVED
"With traditional exchanges shut, tokenised gold currently trades at a premium. This signals a bullish?flight to security' ahead of the opening of the week. Our digital proxies show a strong bid for the weekend."
"PAX Gold" (PAXG), currently at $5,344/oz (+2.2% from Friday), is leading the pack, while Tether Gold? (XAUt) has climbed to $5.292/oz (+1.2 %)."
The weekend premiums are often overstated but reflect the direction.
TIM WATERER, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST AT KCM TRADE
Gold is expected to be more in demand than usual on Monday when the markets open. Gold is expected to be the "safe haven asset" of choice, given the uncertainty about how long the war may last, the possibility that other countries could get involved, and inflation concerns.
Investors will likely look for the "best place" to park their money, and gold will be at the top of that list.
FAWAD RAZAQZADA MARKET ANALYST, CITY INDEX and FOREX.COM
Gold prices could rise again to $5,500, possibly even a record high, above the peak in January of $5,600.
Gold's gains above that level may be limited by a possible rebound in the U.S. Dollar, especially if crude remains sharply higher.
TAI WONG IS AN INDEPENDENT METAL TRADER
"I believe gold and silver will sell off on the fact, but any significant sale will find buyers because the picture in Iran won't be clear until weeks or months."
"I believe a U.S. strike has been priced in, but the timing is a little uncertain. The oil market is definitely the place to be. The fact that crypto prices are higher could be "a harbinger."
ANZ ANALYST SONI KUMARI
"Tomorrow the initial price reaction is expected to be positive, but there may be a retracement in the session depending on the outcome of the events."
"Our overall view hasn't changed. We remain positive on the gold market. Geopolitics this year has been different, with more tensions. And after this attack, there could be macro-implications, especially if oil prices rise sharply."
JOSHUA ROTBART IS THE FOUNDER OF J. ROTBART & CO. AND THE MANAGING PARTNER.
It is safe to say that precious metals will experience increased volatility as they move upwards.
The extent of movement will depend upon the impact a conflict with Iran will have on energy markets and whether regime change is possible in Iran.
OLE HANSEN - HEAD OF COMMODITY STRATEGY SAXO BANK
There is no doubt that this is an alarming escalation, and it will push investors to precious metals and energy sectors. Who knows how big the impact will actually be, but based on last week's momentum, I wouldn't be surprised to see gold print a new record high.
(source: Reuters)