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Oil slides as US pushes for Russia-Ukraine peace deal
Oil prices dropped on Thursday, as U.S. president Donald Trump's administration pressed Ukraine to accept a peace deal with Russia that would end a three-year war. Brent crude futures fell 32 cents or 0.5% to $63.19 per barrel at 11:54 AM CDT (1754 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures dropped 47 cents or 0.79% to $58.97. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that the U.S. crude oil supply was lower than expected. This led to a rebound in both benchmarks on Thursday. The U.S. and Russia peace proposal includes the concession of Ukrainian territory to Russia as well as a reduction in Ukraine's military forces. Both of these proposals were previously rejected by Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Zelenskiy announced on Thursday that he would review the proposal and consult with the United States regarding the peace plan. Phil Flynn is a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. He said, "A lot people thought that this new proposal was dead on arrival, but Zelenskiy didn't dismiss the idea out of hand." The billion-dollar question now is whether the sanctions will go into effect tomorrow. "If they are close, they could be lifted or delayed." The U.S. bans on trade with Rosneft, and Lukoil, Russian oil companies come into force on Friday. Lukoil also has until the 13th of December to sell off its vast international portfolio. The larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. Crude Stockpiles was due to increased refining as a result of strong margins and demand for U.S. Crude. The Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories dropped by 3.4 millions barrels, to 424.2 million, in the week ending November 14. This was against the projection of analysts in a survey for a decline of 603,000 barrels. Analysts also noted, however, that U.S. stockpiles of gasoline and distillate increased for the very first time in over a month. This suggests a slowdown in consumption.
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Fire interrupts negotiations at COP30 Climate Summit, forcing evacuation
Officials said that the fire which forced the evacuation of the COP30 Climate Summit in Belem, Brazil, on Thursday has been put out. However, it is unclear whether delegates will return immediately to continue the negotiations. The Brazilian tourism minister informed reporters on the scene that the fire had been put out and that no one had been injured. However, he was unsure if delegates could return to the area of the venue in which the summit negotiations took place today or tomorrow. The summit organizers confirmed that the fire had been brought under control and added that Brazilian fire officials ordered the evacuation of all the premises. The Amazon City summit was originally scheduled to conclude on Friday. However, it missed the self-imposed deadline of Wednesday to reach agreement between the nearly 200 countries in attendance on topics such as how to increase climate financing and move away from fossil fuels. The fire scare happened in a place that was already buzzing with activity for the two weeks of the summit, disrupting ongoing discussions inside the venue. The siren alerted delegates, journalists, and observers to leave the building with their belongings. Police were positioned as a fence, preventing anyone from approaching the location where the fire had been reported. The TV footage shows flames and smoke in the conference center, which was built on the former site of an airport. The summit began earlier this month and has been interrupted by protests, which have demanded climate action. (Reporting and writing by Sudarshan Varadhan, Brendan O'Boyle and William James; editing by David Gregorio and William James)
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Goldman Sachs increases December 2025 copper estimate
Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for December 2025 to $10,610 from $10,385, reflecting the fourth-quarter rally. The bank has maintained its price range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton for 2026-2027 citing the expectation of a modest surplus on the market. It projected that prices would rise as demand in critical sectors increased and resource constraints tightened. Goldman Sachs' long-term forecast for copper prices in 2035 is $15,000 per ton. This is above both the consensus estimate and forwards which are about $10,390 per ton. The bank bases this on its assumption that many long-stalled mine projects will never be completed. As of 1646 GMT, benchmark three-month copper was trading at around $10,738.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. It was up by 4.4% in the fourth quarter. Aluminium was at $2.814.50. Goldman Sachs is still bearish on aluminum over the next year, and expects prices to fall to $2,350 a ton in the fourth quarter 2026, as new supply will push the market into surplus. Bank of America noted that although the price of aluminum should rise in the future, it is unlikely they will return to their current level until early next decade. The bank stated that "we extend our long-term aluminum price forecast and expect prices to trade between $2,900-3400 from 2030-2035." (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru. Jane Merriman edited the article.
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Gold drops as US jobs data dims prospects of December rate cut
Gold prices fell on Thursday as investors digested the September U.S. jobs report, which showed stronger-than-expected employment figures and dampened prospects for a December rate cut. By 12:15 pm, spot gold had fallen 0.7%, to $4,051.89 an ounce. ET (1715 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.8%, to $4.051.90 an ounce. Gold priced in greenbacks became more expensive to overseas buyers as the U.S. Dollar strengthened against major currencies. Labor Department's closely watched report was delayed by the government shutdown. It showed that nonfarm payrolls rose 119,000 in September, which is more than twice the expected 50,000 increase. This (data) confirms what was discussed by the Fed in October -- that there is a slowing but stable job market. "A December rate cut appears to be less likely," said Peter Grant. Vice president and senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals. The traders now believe that there is a nearly 40% chance of a rate reduction next month. In low-interest rate environments, gold, which is a non-yielding investment, does well. The Bureau of Labor Statistics cancelled the release of its October report due to the government shutdown and combined it with the November figures. The combined report is due to be released after the Fed's meeting on December 16. Minutes from the Fed meeting in October revealed that policymakers cut interest rates, despite warnings that this could increase the risk of inflation or undermine public trust in the central banks. Gold, the traditional safe-haven, is up 55% in this year. It reached a record high on October 20, reaching $4,381.22. UBS increased its mid-year 2026 gold target price to $4,500 an ounce despite recent consolidation. This was due to expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, geopolitical risk, and strong demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds. Silver fell by 1.9% at $50.34 an ounce. Platinum fell by 2.4% at $1,509.10, and palladium dropped 0.1% to 1,378.45. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith, Alan Barona and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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UN chief welcomes COP30's push for clarity about transition away from fossil fuels
On Thursday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an agreement from the Climate summit COP30 Some have called for clarification on the controversial subject of weaning off the world. fossil fuels The Belem summit, in Brazil's Amazonian city, missed the self-imposed deadline of Wednesday to reach agreement between the 200+ countries that were present. This included issues such as how to increase climate financing and move away from fossil fuels. Guterres said at a summit press conference: "I welcome the calls for a just and fair transition mechanism, as well as the growing coalition that is calling for clarity in the transition from fossil fuels." The emissions from fossil fuels are the largest contributors to climate change. The summit will end in less than 48-hours. According to the host nation Brazil, this is a critical step for accelerating international climate action. It also shows that there are many people who want to turn decades of promises made at COP summits and pledges into action. Guterres stated, "It is obvious that we are in the final stretch and the whole world is watching Belem." "I appeal strongly to all delegations that they show flexibility and willingness." FOSSIL FUEL RIFTS The two-week negotiations have become stuck on two issues: the future of fossils fuels and climate finance. These two issues expose the fault lines that cross between the negotiating blocs of rich Western countries, oil-producing states and smaller states most susceptible to climate change. Following the lead of Brazil, dozens countries including developed and developing countries have pushed for a roadmap outlining how countries can transition away from fossil-fuels. Some nations that produce fossil fuels, such as some in the United States, have resisted the idea, claiming it would increase bureaucracy and not improve the reduction of emissions commitments already made by countries. After a long discussion, the COP28 Climate Summit in 2023 decided to make a transition. However, nations haven't outlined how or when it will take place. Guterres said: "I'm convinced that compromise is possible." He said that urgent measures were needed to prevent global warming from permanently breaking above 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial times. Scientists say this threshold would unleash a series of devastating effects. ADAPTING TO THE CHANGE Three sources in the talks say that another major sticking point is the unwillingness of some richer countries to guarantee financial assistance to poorer nations in order to adapt to climate change. Developing countries have already expressed deep mistrust in the $300 billion pledge of climate finance made at the COP29 Conference in Baku last year, especially as the United States has withdrawn from international climate collaboration under President Donald Trump. According to earlier reporting, some existing climate financing has been directed towards strange projects or projects that funnel billions of dollars to rich nations. Steven Victor, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and the Environment of the Pacific Island nation of Palau, said: "Right Now, our people lose their lives and livelihoods due to storms of unprecedented intensity that are caused by warming oceans." He said: "If we leave Belem with no transformative result on adaptation for those most vulnerable in the world, then it's a failure." Officials from Europe have stated that while they recognize the importance of adaptation finance, they are not authorized to set new targets. Jiwoh Abdallah, the Sierra Leone climate minister, said that funding for adaptation is urgently needed to deal with extreme heat in schools and hospitals. He said: "Our children sit in classrooms in which it would be unacceptable in many industrialized nations because they are so hot." (Additional reporting from Lisandra Parguassu and Sudarshan Vasradahn; Kate Abnett, William James and Richard Valdmanis; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne, Nia Williams and Richard Valdmanis)
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Europe plans to measure the role of climate change in extreme weather
Experts say that the EU will launch a service in order to assess how climate change impacts extreme weather, such as heatwaves or extreme rain. This could be used by governments in setting climate policies, improving financial risk assessments, and providing evidence in court cases. Scientists at the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service said the service could help governments weigh the physical risks of worsening weather, and set policy accordingly. It's a demand to understand when an extreme event occurs, how this is related to climate changes? Freja Vamborg, the technical lead for the new service, said that it was a demand to understand when an extreme event happens and how this is related to climate change. The European Commission didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. It will then perform attribution science by running computer simulations to see how weather systems would have behaved had people not started pumping greenhouse gasses into the air. The results of these simulations will be compared with current conditions. Copernicus, which will receive about 2.5 million euro over three years in funding, will be able to publish its results by the end next year. It also offers two assessments per month within one week of extreme weather events. Carlo Buontempo is the director of Copernicus Climate Change Service. He said that for the first time "there will always be an attribution service operating." "Climate Policy is unfortunately a very polarized subject again," said Friederike Otto, a climate researcher at Imperial College London. She helped pioneer the scientific approach and is not involved with the new EU service. She welcomed plans for the service to partner with national meteorological services of EU member states, as well as the UK Met and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. Otto added, "From this point of view it is also helpful if governments do it themselves. They can then see for themselves the real evidence that comes from their own weather services." RISK AND LIABILITY Independent climate scientists and lawyers praised the EU's move. Erika Lennon, senior attorney at the Center for International Environmental Law (a non-profit organization), said: "We want the most information possible." The more we know about attribution science the easier it will become for those most affected to bring successful claims in court. The approach helps financial companies, insurance companies, and other sectors by calculating the probabilities that climate change will impact weather patterns. Johan Rockstroem, an environmental scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained that "they are already using it". In-house teams calculate probabilities for flooding or storms. Rockstroem explained that financial institutions are aware of the need to quantify risk. This is one method. In court, attribution science has been used to calculate how much a company or country's emissions have contributed towards climate-related disasters. In July, the International Court of Justice stated that attribution science was legally valid for linking emissions to climate extremes. However, it still needs to be fully tested in court. In May, a German court dismissed a Peruvian farmers lawsuit against German utility RWE over emissions-driven warming that caused Andean glaciers thaw. The court ruled that the amount of the damage claim was too low for the case to proceed. Noah Walker-Crawford is a climate litigation researcher at the London School of Economics. He said that the court did not discuss climate models in depth or whether they were accurate. Reporting by Ali Withers from Copenhagen and Kate Abnett from Belem in Brazil; Writing and editing by David Gregorio
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Reliance Industries, India, stops importing Russian crude oil for refinery operations
Reliance Industries, India's largest refiner of crude oil, has ceased importing Russian crude into its Jamnagar complex in western Gujarat from November 20, a spokesperson for the company said. The Indian conglomerate has said that it will abide by the sanctions against Moscow, while maintaining its ties with existing oil suppliers. The United States, Britain and the European Union have all imposed sanctions against Russia for its involvement in the war in Ukraine. New sanctions by the U.S. target its two largest oil producers, Rosneft, and Lukoil. Reliance's spokesperson stated in a press release that all products exported from the refinery from December 1 will be sourced from crude oil produced outside of Russia. Reliance has announced that this transition was completed well ahead of schedule in order to comply with the new product import restrictions which will be implemented on January 21. The U.S. gave companies until November 21, 2018 to end transactions with Russian oil producers. Meanwhile, the EU had previously stated that it would not accept fuel produced by refineries which received or processed Russian crude oil 60 days before the bill of loading date. Reliance exports to Europe account for 28%. Reliance said it was honouring all commitments made to lift Russian crude oil by October 22, given that all transport arrangements had already been made. Reliance stated that the final cargo of this type was loaded on 12 November and that any cargoes arriving after 20 November will be received at Reliance's refinery and processed in its Domestic Tariff Area. Sethuraman N R; Maju Samuel, Editor.
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5E to receive $20 million in US Government support for its boron supply chain
Paul Weibel, CEO of 5E Advanced Materials, said that the company is in discussions with Los Alamos National Laboratory about securing $20 million of federal funding for the Fort Cady Boron Project in California. The project will help the company become one of few domestic suppliers of this newly-designated critical mineral. Weibel stated that the New Mexico laboratory had made an offer to finance the company's operations. Los Alamos didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. The U.S. Department of Energy operates the lab, which conducts research on national security, space exploration and nuclear fusion. It also conducts research on medicine, nanotech, supercomputing, and renewable energy. The U.S. Geological Survey, along with the Interior Department of the U.S., added boron to their list of critical minerals this month, citing concerns about supply risks, the lack substitutes, and the heavy concentration in production outside the U.S. The U.S. is a major supplier of boron, but it does not have the processing or refinement required by industries, which are primarily done overseas. China controls almost all downstream boron production, which is a strategic chokepoint flagged by U.S. policymakers. The global supply is still highly concentrated. Eti Maden, a Turkish state-owned company, is the largest producer followed by Rio Tinto U.S. Borax, based in Boron, California. Weibel stated that 5E intends to apply for funding under a DOE programme designed to increase the production of minerals in the United States for energy technology and manufacturing, transportation, and national defense. The Trump administration is prioritizing increasing the domestic mineral output amid increased trade tensions with China, and other major suppliers. Boron is used as a key ingredient in many industries, including nuclear energy, windmills, specialty ceramics, advanced insulations, fertilizers, and cleaning chemicals. It's also a vital component in the oil and gas industry. The FINANCING Path Forward 5E is currently reviewing its application for an additional 10 million dollars loan from U.S. Export-Import Bank. EXIM had sent a letter of intent to the company for a potential funding of up to $285,000,000 for Fort Cady. This is one of only ten advanced-stage boron development projects in the U.S. The DOE and EXIM both did not respond to requests for comments. 5E's Fort Cady Project hosts a fully-operational pilot plant which has started shipping boric acids for commercial testing. The development of a larger commercial-scale plant is progressing with an investment decision expected in October 2026. (Reporting and editing by Arun Koyyur in Bengaluru, with Pooja Menon reporting from Bengaluru)
Copper prices rise after Nvidia's results, but the dollar is still strong.
The copper market edged upwards on Thursday, following strong results by AI giant Nvidia. However, a strong dollar as well as concerns over the demand from China's top metals consumer weighed heavily on the market.
The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.3%, to $10,784 per metric ton, by 1525 GMT. This modest gain was extended from the previous session.
LME copper is up 22% for the year, but it has fallen from its record high of $11,200 reached on October 29, 2009.
Nvidia shocked Wall Street on Wednesday after the markets closed by reporting an accelerated growth following several quarters of slower sales.
Nitesh Sha, a commodities strategist at WisdomTree, said: "I expect there to be weakness across the economy. But as long as the tech sector is strong and infrastructure development from the tech sector continues to be robust, it's good for base metals markets."
Analysts expect copper to be a major beneficiary of the increased demand for AI data centres.
The gains were however dampened by the firm dollar, after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve released made it seem less likely that interest rates would be cut in December.
The dollar is stronger, and therefore the prices of commodities in U.S. dollars are higher for foreign buyers.
Concerns about a weak demand for copper in China are also weighing on the markets.
In a note, Neil Welsh, Britannia Global Markets' head of metals, stated that "copper consumption in China is largely disappointing, with run rates for fabricators being at multi-year lows this season."
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trading 0.1% higher at 86.080 yuan (12,099) per ton.
Customs data released on Thursday showed that China imported 279 944 tons of copper cathodes during October. This is a decrease of 22.1% on an annual basis and 15.7% monthly.
LME zinc gained 1.4%, to $3,023 per ton. China's exports of zinc surged in October, as domestic smelters shifted to overseas markets following a sharp drop in LME inventory.
Nickel fell 1.1%, to $14,490, and lead dropped 0.1%, to $2 013.50. $1 = 7.1145 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Kirsten Doovan and David Goodman)
(source: Reuters)