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Chinese firms drive aluminium expansion in Indonesia, raise surplus fears

The Chinese-led expansion in Indonesia of aluminium production is expected to lead the global market in excess next year. This will result in lower prices for the metal used widely in the transportation industry.

Three new smelters backed by China are close to completion, including Xinfa-Tsingshan Juwan in Weda Bay, Taijing at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and the Adaro-Lygend Kaltara Project in North Kalimantan. Indonesia exported 325.293 metric tonnes of aluminium from January to August of this year. This is up 67% compared to the same period last year.

Ross Strachan is an analyst with consultancy CRU. He said, "The rate of Indonesian growth in supply will play a major role in shaping the aluminium market's balance and prices." The primary production of aluminum, which is also used for construction and packaging, will exceed 72 million tonnes this year.

Goldman Sachs predicts a global surplus of aluminium in 2026, and 2,000,000 tons in the following year. Indonesia's primary production will rise from 815, 000 tons in 2020 to 1.6,000,000 tons in 2030 and 2.5,000,000 tons in 2030.

In a recent note, the bank stated that "the new supply from Indonesia effectively solves the global shortage we had previously seen forming due to China reaching its smelting cap for at least this decade." Goldman predicts that aluminium prices will fall to $2,350 a metric ton by the fourth quarter 2026. This is above the 90th centile of estimated costs for smelters. It means that 90 percent of aluminium smelters will produce at costs below this level. If prices remain above that level, most smelters will be profitable. On Monday, three-month aluminium was trading at around $2.873 per metric ton.

Macquarie predicts that Indonesia's primary aluminum production will push the market to a surplus of 390,000-tons next year.

Macquarie, however, sees a return of deficits in the longer term when China reaches its capacity limit and demand increases.

China's aluminum production is approaching its 45 million ton limit, which will put a cap on future growth.

(source: Reuters)