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Australia consults on critical mineral stockpile before Albanese and Trump meeting
Industry sources say that Australia is preparing a plan to manage its vital minerals reserve. The plan will be based on the sale of future production and reduce the need for physical stockpiles, they said. Four sources with knowledge of the matter say that Australia's Critical Minerals Task Force hosted a conference call with project developers and miners last week to increase industry consultations. By the end of this year, the task force hopes to finalise its policy recommendations on the structure of an A$1.2 billion (782 million dollars) stockpile for minerals it believes are vulnerable to disruptions in supply. The stockpile is expected be completed by 2026, with a focus on rare Earths. Previously, it was reported that Australia would be willing to sell its reserves to allies including Britain. Australia is pushing for this move as it seeks to capitalize on its strategic importance as an important supplier to its allies in advance of the meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, which will take place on October 20th in Washington. The Australian resource and trade ministers declined to comment. Beijing tightened its export restrictions for rare earths last week ahead of the talks between Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled at the end the month. China produces 90% of processed rare earths, rare earth magnets, and other rare earth products in the world. It has used export restrictions as a way to reduce shipments and increase global concern about supply chain vulnerability. Don Farrell, Australian trade minister, told ABC that Australia has a vast supply of critical minerals the world will need to decarbonise the planet, build data centres and process AI. He said that a wide range of customers was needed to both provide the capital for the extraction and to guarantee a market to sell the critical minerals. "We have been in contact with Europeans, Japanese, Koreans and we are also talking to Americans." 'LISTEN MODE' Sources claim that government officials are eager "to listen" and show their listening mode. According to one person, companies were asked to submit written submissions. Instead of stockpiling metals critical to the future, governments participating in this agreement would agree upon annual supplies and miners would then sell these metals directly through consumers. The volume of this supply would be deducted from any bilateral agreement. One of the sources stated that "it's more like an instrument financial than a stockpile." Australian officials are yet to decide how risk management will be handled for smaller markets, such as heavy rare earths. The majority of world prices are linked to a China based index which Western developers claim is artificially too low. The U.S. Government offered an unprecedented multi-billion dollar deal earlier this year to support MP Materials, its leading rare earths producer. This included a mandatory minimum price for buyers. Australia said that it was considering a plan similar to this, but sources stated that it would be looking to reduce its financial risk. In an ideal world Australia would not spend money, but act more as a facilitator. The other countries (consumer) would then underwrite a minimum price. One source stated that another idea is to have Australia contribute trades or materials in order to support a "functioning Western Price Index". One source stated that this idea is unlikely to succeed because the market size is too small for it to be liquid.
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Positive data on iron ore outweighs Sino-US trade tensions
Iron ore futures rose on Monday, as concerns about renewed Sino-U.S. tensions in trade were outweighed by the robust steel exports from China, which is its top consumer. As of 0808 GMT the benchmark November iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange increased by 0.79%, to $107.2 per ton. It had previously reached its highest level since 22 September, at $107.45. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by 1.13%, reaching its highest level since September 26. It now stands at 804.5 Yuan ($112.82) per ton. After robust steel exports, September's improved sentiment helped to boost prices of the main steelmaking ingredient. Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that lower shipments of ore from Australia and Brazil were supportive of the price of ore in the week ending October 12. Mysteel's data shows that the firm demand for hot metal among Chinese steelmakers was 2,42 million tons per day in the week ending October 10. This is 3.6% more than the same time last year. Prices rose, but the gains were tempered by the renewed trade dispute between the two world's largest economies. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced that he would impose additional duties of 100% on China’s exports to the U.S., as well as new export controls for "any and all essential software" on November 1 after China announced it would expand restrictions on rare-earth elements, which are vital to semiconductor and defence sectors. Analysts said that this had a negative impact on prices and prompted hopes for China to introduce stimulus measures in order to offset the effects. ANZ analysts stated in a report that "Fiscal Measures may be implemented if necessary to mitigate any potential shocks related to trade". Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking materials fell by 1.63% et 1.14% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen. Rebar fell by 0.77%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.88%. Wire rod also lost 1.64%, and stainless steel was down 1.59%. ($1 = 7.1310 Chinese yuan). (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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LMEWEEK - LME will roll out premium prices for sustainable metals
London Metal Exchange (LME), announced on Monday, plans to introduce a new method to determine how much premium customers will pay for metals that are produced with less carbon and meet other sustainability standards. Some miners claim that their metals made with renewable energy cannot compete with the cheaper output made using coal. The LME has rejected the introduction of separate sustainable metals contracts at the exchange. They argued that it would dilute the liquidity. Matthew Chamberlain, CEO of the Chamberlain Group, said that many end users are reluctant to pay more for products that are sustainable. For some metals however, there may not even be a premium. POTENTIAL ZERO PREMIUM In an interview with industry group LME Week, he stated: "If there's no sustainability premium, we'd be happy to publish zero." "I think it is more important to know that there's a premium than not knowing there's one." The LME is expanding its partnership with the digital platform Metalshub which already trades nickel that has low carbon emissions. If they meet certain sustainable standards, LME copper, aluminium and nickel brands will be eligible to trade on Metalshub's sustainable section. The LME stated that these include maximum carbon footprints, and third-party standards for sustainability, which are based on internationally recognized methodologies. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. has established a new Dubai-based company to independently determine premium prices. Commodity Pricing and Analysis Limited will calculate bids, offers and assessment if not enough transactions are made on Metalshub. The LME reported that since March of last year, Metalshub has traded 488 metric tonnes of low-carbon Nickel. The LME, which has been around for 148 years, published a paper discussing the method it intends to use to calculate premium prices. Frank Jackel of Metalshub in Germany said that the addition of copper and aluminum to the platform would increase the volume of the platform. He said: "This is in line with our vision of more and more trading taking place on digital platforms, and trading venues such as ours." The markets need to be more efficient, and trading over the phone or by email is no longer acceptable. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton; Eric Onstad)
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Shanghai Copper falls as tensions between China and the US escalate
Shanghai copper fell on Monday as trade tensions between China and the United States escalated after President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs sharply. In response to Beijing's recent expansion of its controls on rare earth exports, the U.S. President threatened on Friday to impose a 100% additional tariff on imports coming from China as well as new export controls for critical software. China blamed Trump for the escalation on Sunday, accusing him of hypocrisy. Beijing has not taken any further countermeasures in advance of a possible meeting between Trump, the Chinese president Xi Jinping, and South Korea's President Moon Jae-in later this month, which Trump had threatened to cancel. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract closed the daytime trade down 1.77% at 85,000 yuan per metric tonne ($11,919.45). The benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange rose 0.92%, to $10,615 per ton, by 0708 GMT. It had fallen over 3% the previous session. Analysts at Chinese broker GF Futures say that the price of copper is rising due to the short term impact of Trump’s tariff threat. However, supply issues caused by a series mine disruptions are continuing to support its price. After Freeport declared force majeure last month at its flagship Grasberg Mine in Indonesia, investors have been buying copper. Aluminium fell by 0.9% among SHFE's base metals. Zinc dropped by 0.52%. Nickel tumbled by 1.91%. Tin fell 2.2%. Lead was the only metal to gain, gaining 0.15%. The LME metals market saw aluminium up 0.31%. Zinc was up 0.55%. Nickel fell 0.36%. Lead dropped 0.62%. Tin fell 1.21%. $1 = 7.1312 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Eileng Soreng and Ronojoy Mazumdar).
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The UK's 'dieselgate scandal' has lasted a decade. Carmakers are facing a key trial in UK litigations.
A decade after Volkswagen's Dieselgate scandal, lawyers for 1.6 million claimants are bringing a trial against some of the biggest automakers in the world. They accuse them of cheating on diesel emissions tests. Owners of diesel cars made by Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Nissan and Renault, as well as the Stellantis owned brands Peugeot and Citroen, allege that the companies used illegal 'defeat device'. The claimants' attorneys say that these devices monitored emissions when cars were being tested, and made sure they stayed within legal limits. However, when the vehicles were on the roads, they did not. However, the manufacturers say that the claims are flawed, and deny any similarities with the scandal in 2015 which cost Volkswagen billions in fines and compensation. Mercedes-Benz has said that its emission control system is technically and legally justified. 'DEFEAT DEVICES' TRIAL BEGINS The trial will be centered on a sample of diesel cars produced by five manufacturers who are being sued for allegedly using prohibited defeat devices. The court will decide on any damages that should be paid at a second trial next year. The ruling of the court will also apply to hundreds of thousands similar claims made against other manufacturers, including Stellantis' Vauxhall/Opel as well as BMW. Martyn Day from Leigh Day said that if the allegations were proven, "it would demonstrate one of most egregious breach of corporate trust of modern times". VW was forced to pay over 32 billion euros ($37billion) for vehicle repairs, fines, and legal fees after admitting to using defeat devices to cheat on emissions tests. Former Chief Executive Martin Winterkorn also faced criminal charges but his trial has been suspended due to health reasons. LITIGATION AND FINES IN THE WORLD The High Court of London has already ruled against VW's defeat devices in 2020. VW settled these claims in 2022 without admitting any liability. The group of claims against 14 manufacturers is much larger than the VW lawsuit, and the lawyers representing the claimants valued the litigation at $7.97 billion. Around the world, automakers are being sued, including in The Netherlands, where a Dutch court ruled that diesel cars sold under the Stellantis brand Opel, Peugeot Citroen, and DS had defeat devices. Stellantis argued this ruling was incorrect. In the United States, suppliers and manufacturers have paid fines to resolve investigations on diesel vehicle emissions. (1 euro = 0.8645 pounds) (Reporting and editing by Elaine Hardcastle).
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Shanghai Copper falls as tensions between China and the US escalate
Shanghai copper fell on Monday as trade tensions between China and the United States escalated after President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs sharply. In response to Beijing's recent expansion of its controls on rare earth exports, the U.S. President threatened on Friday to impose a 100% additional tariff on imports coming from China as well as new export controls for critical software. China blamed Trump for the escalated situation on Sunday, accusing him of hypocrisy. Beijing has not taken any further countermeasures in advance of a possible meeting between Trump, the Chinese president Xi Jinping, and South Korea's President Moon Jae-in later this month, a meeting Trump had threatened to cancel. As of 0330 GMT, the most active copper contract at Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 2.17%, to 84.650 yuan (11,870.71) a metric ton. The London Metal Exchange's benchmark three-month price of copper increased by 0.08%, to $10,526 per ton, at 0409 GMT. This was after the previous session saw a drop of over 3%. Analysts at Chinese broker GF Futures say that the price of copper is rising due to the short term impact of Trump’s tariff threat. However, supply issues caused by a series mine disruptions are continuing to support its price. After Freeport declared force majeure last month at its flagship Grasberg Mine in Indonesia, investors have been buying copper. Aluminium fell 1.02% among SHFE base metals. Zinc dropped 0.63%. Nickel tumbled 1.87%. Tin slid 2.53 %. Lead was the only metal to gain, gaining 0.15%. The LME metals market saw aluminium up 0.09%. Zinc was up 0.7%. Nickel fell by 0.43%. Lead dropped 0.45%. Tin fell by 1.36%. $1 = 7.1310 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Eileng Soreng; Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan)
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Oil recovers some of the losses caused by US-China tensions
Oil prices rose Monday, after falling to a five-month low in the previous session. Investors hoped that potential talks between U.S. presidents and Chinese leaders could ease tensions over trade between the two world's largest economies and oil users. Brent crude futures rose 92 cents or 1.47% to $63.65 per barrel at 0408 GMT, after falling 3.82% to its lowest level since May 7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was at $59.79 per barrel, up 89-cents or 1.51% after a 4.24% drop to its lowest level since May 7. WTI prices are expected to settle on Tuesday, as Monday is an American public holiday. The rebound in the oil markets was likely caused by traders profit-taking on the 'TACO trade' after Trump and Vice-President JD Vance indicated that the newly-announced tariffs were more a negotiation tool and that they were open for making a deal. "However (price) volatility is expected." "I do not think oil or other risk assets will reverse their losses any time soon," she said. Last week, U.S. and China trade tensions erupted after China increased its rare earth export controls. This prompted U.S. president Donald Trump to respond on Friday by imposing 100% tariffs on China’s U.S. bound exports as well as new export controls on “any and all critical" software before November 1. The move comes ahead of a possible Trump-Xi summit on the sidelines the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in South Korea. U.S. trade representative Jamison Greer stated that the meeting could still take place later this month. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report that the most likely scenario is that both sides will pull back from their most aggressive policies, and that the talks could lead to an extension - possibly indefinite – of the tariff escalation freeze reached in May. They added that there was still a risk of trade tensions increasing, which could lead to higher export taxes or greater restrictions on exports, at least temporary. The oil prices fell in March and April, when tensions between China and the United States were at their highest. Customs data show that China's crude oil imports rose by 3.9% in September compared to a year ago, reaching 11.5 million barrels a day. Refineries were operating at the highest rates of utilisation so far this season, and stockpiling continued. Trump announced on Sunday in the Middle East that the Gaza War has ended. He is now heading to Israel, where he will be releasing Israeli hostages as well as Palestinian prisoners under the fragile ceasefire which he brokered. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast, Sonali Paul, and Florence Tan)
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Every trade cloud in Europe has a Taco lining
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Once again, it's TACO-time. Investors hope that the latest rantings of President Trump about tariffs will have little impact in the long run. He did, after all, strike a different note on social media at the weekend. "Don't worry, China will be fine!" The highly respected President Xi had a bad day. The U.S.A. is trying to help China and not harm it !!!" Imagine a drinking-game where you get a shot of alcohol for each exclamation point. Trump will join other world leaders to discuss the Gaza ceasefire in Egypt on January 28. There will be many opportunities for new headlines. Beijing responded by defending their restrictions on rare earth mineral and refusing to accept a call from White House. This is nothing new. Exports in September grew by 8.3% year-on-year, which was twice the expected rate, and imports were also well above expectations. Exports of rare Earths dropped 31% in August. This is likely because the Chinese government tightened up on Western technology and defence manufacturers. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both rose 1.8% as investors assumed that the deadline for November would be extended. The Q3 earnings season, which begins this week for major banks, is expected to be a very positive one. European stock futures have risen between 0.2% to 0.5%. Asia stocks continue to be affected by Friday's fallout. Nikkei Futures, the cash market being closed for a holiday, have risen 1.6% to 46835, but this is still well below Friday's finish of 480888. South Korea is down by 1.2%, and Chinese blue-chip stocks are down 0.9%. The currencies have stabilized with the safe-haven Japanese yen falling and the risk-hedge Aussie rising. The euro is at $1.1600 while markets watch to see if France's new cabinet will last more than 14 hours and if they can pass a budget in parliament. The Treasury cash market is closed on holiday. However, 10-year futures have fallen by about 5 ticks. Gold reached a new peak of $4,059 while oil recovered more than 1%. The markets indicate a 96% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Fed Chair Powell will have the opportunity to provide his advice when he addresses the NABE Annual Meeting on Tuesday. This week, a host of other Fed officials will be in Washington to attend the IMF/World Bank meeting. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact ECB head Lagarde is speaking, as are Paulson from the Fed, Greene of BoE, and Mann.
China Copper Concentrate Imports Drop in September after Freeport Indonesia Halt
China's copper imports fell 6.2% in September. This reversed two months of growth. Exports from Freeport Indonesia’s massive Grasberg mining facility dropped following a mudslide and the expiration of its export licence.
Data from the General Administration of Customs revealed on Monday that copper concentrate imports to smelters fell from 2.76 millions metric tons one month earlier to 2.59million metric tons last September.
Freeport-McMoRan’s license to export copper concentrate from Indonesia expired on 16 September after a six-month extension. This led to a decrease in shipments.
In August, the company increased exports to Indonesia ahead of expiration of their export license. This led to an increase in Chinese imports in that month. Traders said that it is not surprising imports dropped in September.
The miner, in a further blow to Indonesian exports, declared force majeure at its flagship Grasberg Mine on September 25, due to a deadly mudflow earlier in the month, which killed seven people. This cut shipments from the second largest copper mine in the world.
China imported 22,63 million tons (up 7.7%) of copper concentrate in the period from January to September. This is up from 21,02 million tons for the same period last year.
The data shows that imports of copper increased by 14.12% to 485,000 tonnes in September.
Imports of unwrought copper, as well as copper products, into China, which is the world's biggest consumer and producer include anodes and refined metals, alloys, and semi-finished copper goods. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan)
(source: Reuters)