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The UK consumer sentiment is on the rise, but Middle East conflict clouds the outlook
A survey on Friday showed that British consumer confidence reached its highest level since 2025 this month as the mood towards the economy improved. However, the threat of higher energy bills due to the war in the Middle East looms over the outlook. GfK's consumer confidence index rose from -20 to -18 from -20 from May. This is the highest reading since last December. An economist's poll had predicted a similar reading. The index is still below its long-term average of -11 and lower than it was a year earlier. Brent crude oil futures are up around 20% since May's end. This could be a problem for Britain, which already has the highest headline inflation rate in the world and some of Europe's most expensive energy costs. The Bank of England stated on Thursday that it will remain vigilant in its monitoring of inflation risks arising from the conflict between Israel & Iran. The escalation in conflict in the Middle East is likely to increase petrol prices in the next few weeks. There are also still many uncertainties about the full impact of tariffs. This could have a negative impact on consumers, said Neil Bellamy. The survey's gauges for past and future economics ticked up in June. However, the indexes measuring personal financial confidence (a better indicator of consumer spending) were flat. The official retail sales figures for May are due at 0600 GMT and will likely show a decline in sales volume following an unexpected surge in sales in April, which statisticians attributed to the good weather. (Reporting and editing by William Schomberg.)
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ArcelorMittal abandons plans to produce green steel in Germany because of high energy costs
ArcelorMittal said that the energy costs in Germany were too high to allow it to convert its two German plants to carbon-neutral production. The German industrial sector is still recovering from the shock of losing the Russian gas which had been powering its factories for decades. This decision also calls into question the green hydrogen policy launched by the former government. The government hoped that the subsidies would encourage ArcelorMittal's existing plants in Bremen, in the north, and Eisenhuettenstadt, in the east, to convert to furnaces fired by hydrogen. Hydrogen can be produced from renewable electricity. The steelmaker stated that it decided to not proceed with its plans due to the high energy prices in Germany and the uncertainty surrounding the future energy mix. The first electric arc forges will be built in countries with competitive and predictable electricity supply, it stated. It highlighted a recent investment into a forge powered by electricity in France. It said that "electricity prices in Germany were high by international standards as well as compared to neighboring countries." The steel industry of Europe was also affected because so many consumers imported electricity instead of buying it from local producers. Germany is building rapidly renewable electricity networks. However, the transition away from Russian gas, which has been a long and painful process, has proved to be lengthy and costly, despite the generous subsidies offered to industries who rely on gas to switch over to hydrogen. The conservative-led coalition government, which took office in this year, has criticised the left-leaning previous government's strategy on energy but so far hasn't outlined a radical new approach. Geert van poelvoorde, ArcelorMittal Europe's head of Europe, said: "The European steel sector is under unprecedented pressure in order to maintain its competitiveness." "And this is before decarbonisation costs." He called on the European Commission (EC) to limit imports of certain types of steel to Europe, stating that foreign competition was the biggest problem facing the industry. Reporting by Thomas Escritt, Editing by Jamie Freed
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Niger nationalizes Somair, a French uranium company owned by Orano
The Niger government announced on Thursday plans to nationalize Somair, a joint venture between French nuclear fuels firm Orano and the Niger. A statement was read out on the national television of the West African country. The statement listed a number of grievances, including the expiration in December 2023 of the most recent mining agreement. The statement read: "Faced by this irresponsible and illegal behaviour of Orano, owned by the French government -- an openly hostile state toward Niger from July 26, 2023...the Niger government has decided to nationalize Somair in its full sovereignty." This decision represents an intensification of a dispute that has developed between the French government and the French firm following the deterioration in relations between France & Niger since a coup d'état on July 20, 2023. Orano owns 63% of Somair while Niger’s state-owned Sopamin holds the rest. However, the French operator is no longer allowed to operate the mine since the military government took control. Orano has warned of the government's interference in Somair's finances, which they say is a threat to the mine. A Financial Times article from May stated that the company was looking into the possibility of selling its stake in the Uranium Venture. Reporting by Boureima Balima, Writing by Ayen deng Bior, Editing by Bate and Rod Nickel
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Al Ahly finally scores in Group A as Soccer-Palmeiras score two goals in the second half to defeat them
Palmeiras of Brazil scored twice within 10 minutes of the second half to defeat Al Ahly from Egypt 2-0. The match was stopped for 50 minutes due to fears of stormy weather on Thursday at the MetLife Stadium. Wessam Abou Ali, Ahly's Palestine striker and international Anibal Moreno got into a tangle with his defenders when he tried to defend the free kick that Anibal Moreno had whipped into his goal. Palmeiras took the lead in 49th minute. Jose Manuel Lopez, the Brazilian player who came on during halftime, scored the first goal of the group 10 minutes after the Brazilian team's counterattack. After the second goal was scored, English referee Anthony Taylor removed the teams from the field. The public address announcer then instructed the spectators to leave their seats for shelter beneath the stadium concourse due to a "severe threat of weather". After 30 minutes, the spectators were allowed to return to their seats. After a delay of 50 minutes, the game was finally restarted. Palmeiras continued to dominate in the second half. The first half was evenly contested. It had a high pace for a midday game in temperatures of 31 degrees Celsius and 60% humidity. This made it seem even hotter. Estevao, the teenage prodigy who has been signed by Chelsea, showed his talent in the 18th-minute when he ran down the right side before cutting into the Ahly box. However, his shot was flung wide after the Ahly defence appeared mesmerized by his speed. Ahly and Inter Miami drew 0-0 in the first match of the tournament, while Palmeiras & FC Porto failed to score on Sunday when they played each other at the New Jersey Stadium. Abou Ali accidentally steered the football into his own goal early in the second half, ending the drought. Four Palmeiras players were involved in a quick breakaway from their own penalty box for the second goal. Argentine striker Lopez finished the move expertly by shrugging off a defender and placing the ball in his net. Taylor had issued the first red card in the tournament for Raphael Vega’s dangerous tackle on Ahmed Zizo. However, the referee reversed his decision after viewing the VAR screen at the pitchside. The card was downgraded from a red to a yellow and Vega's halftime replacement was Abel Ferreira. Inter Miami and Porto will meet for their next Group A match on Thursday, in Atlanta. (Editing by Toby Davis & Pritha Sakar)
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Hurricane Erick weakened over Mexico and left a trail of destruction in its wake
Hurricane Erick has weakened since it slammed into Mexico's south Pacific coast on Thursday as a major storm. It left behind a trail that included damaged businesses, wrecked vessels and flooded streets, as authorities warned about the dangers of heavy rain. Erick, a Category 3 Hurricane, made landfall in the area of Puerto Escondido at around 5:30 am local time (1130 GMT). Later, it was downgraded to Category 1, as the storm moved inland. The sustained winds slowed to 85 mph (137 km/h). In coastal towns, residents began clearing debris. Eduardo Gonzalez, a fisherman in Puerto Escondido, said that there were many boats sunk. "We are here to help out our colleagues." Officials warned that Erick's heavy rains, despite having weakened slightly, remained dangerous. The U.S. National Hurricane Center warned of "life-threatening flooding and mudslides", especially in steep terrain. It forecasted up to 16" (41 cm) rain for Oaxaca, and the neighboring state of Guerrero. Mexico's Environment Ministry also warned about waves up to 10 meters. Laura Velazquez said that no deaths had been reported at the time of the press conference. She added that two hospitals were damaged and the power supply had been compromised. CFE, the state-owned utility company, reported that over 120,000 Oaxacans had lost electricity. Service was restored to about 26% of users by late afternoon. Salomon Jara, the governor of Oaxaca, said that roads and highways have been severely damaged. Meteorologists at AccuWeather say that Erick was the first major hurricane to land in the eastern Pacific. Alex DaSilva is AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert. "Rapid intensity near coastal cities...as the water temperature continues to rise" was his concern. AccuWeather warned that areas around Acapulco were particularly vulnerable as the town was still recovering from Hurricane Otis, which struck in 2023. Reporting by Aida Pea-Fernandez, Additional reporting by Jose Cortes, Puerto Escondido Mexico; Editing and editing by Himani Sarkar, Bernadettebaum, Andrea Ricci, Deepa Babington, Toby Chopra
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What is the risk of nuclear contamination from Israel's attack on Iran?
Israel claims it wants to prevent a nuclear catastrophe in the region, which is home to millions of people as well as producing much of the oil in the world. Israel's military announced that it had hit a Bushehr site on the Gulf Coast, home to Iran’s only nuclear power plant. But later said the announcement was an error. Here are some details about the damage that Israel has caused and what experts have to say about the dangers of contamination and other disasters. What has Israel done so far? Israel has declared attacks on nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Arak, as well as Tehran. Israel claims it wants to prevent Iran from building an atom-bomb. Iran has denied ever wanting one. IAEA, the international nuclear watchdog, has reported damage at the Natanz uranium plant, the Isfahan nuclear complex, including the Uranium Conversion Facility and the centrifuge production plants in Karaj, Tehran and Karaj. Israel announced on Wednesday that it had targeted Arak (also known as Khondab), the location of a heavy-water research nuclear reactor. This type of reactor can produce plutonium easily, which can be used, like enriched Uranium, to make an atom bomb's core. The IAEA reported that they had received information that Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor had been struck, but it was not operating and had no reported radiological effects. WHAT RISKS DO STRIKES LIKE THIS PRESENT? Peter Bryant, professor of radiation protection science at the University of Liverpool, England, who specializes in nuclear energy policy and radiation protection, has said that he's not concerned with the fallout risk from the strikes. He pointed out that the Arak facility was not in operation while the Natanz site was underground. No radiation leakage was reported. He said that the issue was controlling what happened in that facility. Nuclear facilities were designed to do that. He said that uranium is only dangerous when it's inhaled, ingested, or gets into your body. Darya Dolzikova is a senior researcher at London's think tank RUSI. She said that attacks on the facilities at the front of the nuclear fuel chain - where uranium gets prepared to be used in a reactor -- pose chemical risks, and not radiological ones. UF6, or uranium hexafluoride is the main concern at enrichment plants. She said that when UF6 reacts with the water vapour in air, it creates harmful chemicals. She added that the weather conditions would affect how much material was dispersed. In low wind, material is likely to settle near the facility. In high winds, material will travel further, but also disperse widely. Underground facilities have a lower risk of dispersion. What about nuclear reactants? A strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor would be of major concern. Richard Wakeford is Honorary Professor of Epidemiology, University of Manchester. He said that whereas contamination from attacks on the enrichment facilities will be "primarily a chemical issue" for the nearby areas, extensive damage of large power reactors would "be a different tale". He added that radioactive elements could be released into the ocean or through a plume containing volatile materials. James Acton, director of the Nuclear Policy Program for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that an attack on Bushehr could "cause an absolute radiological disaster", but that an attack on enrichment plants was "unlikely" to have significant off-site effects. He said that uranium is barely radioactive before it enters a nuclear reactor. "The chemical form of uranium is toxic, but it doesn't travel long distances. It's also barely radioactive." "Israel's attacks so far have had virtually no radiological effects," he said, despite his opposition to Israel. Why are Gulf States particularly concerned? The Gulf States' impact on any attack on Bushehr will be exacerbated by the possible contamination of Gulf water, putting at risk a vital source of desalinated drinking water. According to the authorities, in the UAE, more than 80% drinking water is desalinated, and Bahrain has become fully dependent on desalinated waters since 2016. 100% of the groundwater was reserved for contingency planning. Qatar is completely dependent on desalinated drinking water. According to the General Authority for Statistics, in Saudi Arabia, which is a larger country with more natural groundwater reserves, 50% of water supplies will be desalinated by 2023. Some Gulf States, such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, have access to multiple seas to draw their water, but countries like Qatar and Bahrain are congested along the Gulf shoreline with no other coastline. If a natural catastrophe, an oil spill or even a targeted assault were to disrupt a water desalination facility, hundreds of thousands would lose their access to freshwater instantly, said Nidal Ilal, Professor and Director of the Water Research Center at New York University Abu Dhabi. He said that coastal desalination plants were particularly vulnerable to regional hazards such as oil spills and nuclear contamination.
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Eni, a company based in Italy, has launched a demonstration plant for the recycling of mixed plastics
Versalis is the chemical division of the Italian energy company Eni. On Thursday, Versalis unveiled a demonstration facility based on a new technology it has developed for the chemical recycling mixed plastic waste. The "Hoop" technology allows for the conversion of mixed plastic waste to a feedstock which can then be used to create new plastic materials that are suitable for any application, including packaging intended to come into contact with food and pharmaceutical packaging. Eni is reorganizing its chemical division, which has been losing money. The European petrochemical industry is struggling with an oversupply. Eni will build a new steam cracker in Priolo, Sicily based on Hoop Technology. Versalis CEO Adriano Alfoni stated that a final investment decision could be made on the new recycling facility in Priolo next year, at an event for the opening of the Mantua demo plant. He added that the new factory might be ready by the start of 2029. Alfani stated that Eni will spend approximately 200 million Euros by 2029 for the plant at Priolo as well as other facilities dedicated to the mechanical recycling of plastic. This sum is part of a 2 billion euro ($2.3 billion) investment plan announced last year by the state-controlled company, which aims to turn Versalis around. In the last five year, Versalis has lost 3 billion euros. The overhaul will include new activities such as plastic recycling, energy storage and bio-refining. It will also involve the closure of several primary petrochemical facilities, including steam crackers. Alfani stated that Versalis may in the future look at spinning off certain businesses, such as its biochemistry company Novamont and taking on minority partners. Novamont's financial performance improved in 2018 compared to 2023, and was close to breaking even at the core profit level. Last year, sources said that Eni waited for Novamont to improve its financial results before re-evaluating the sale of the minority stake.
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Oil, tariffs and wars disrupt central bank's roadmap
Investors are becoming more uneasy about the uncertain economic environment. The shock rate reduction in Norway on Thursday highlighted how U.S. Tariffs, Middle East conflict, and a shaky Dollar make global monetary policies and inflation harder to predict. Norway's crown fell by about 1% in relation to the dollar and euro, indicating how unexpected this move was. Switzerland's central bank, which warned of a cloudy outlook for the global economy, cut its borrowing costs on Thursday to 0%, surprising some traders who expected a return to negative interest rates. A day earlier, the U.S. Federal Reserve had kept interest rates at current levels and Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve Board said that "nobody" was confident about the future rate path. Markets must contend with monetary policy uncertainties in the face of geopolitical, trade and other risks. A gauge of volatility expected in European equities reached a two-month peak as stocks fell across the region and government bonds, which are usually safe havens for geopolitical risks, were sold off. Mark Dowding, chief investment officer of RBC Global Asset Management and BlueBay, said: "We are in a period of significant policy and macro-uncertainty." He added that he would not be making active market wagers on the investment portfolios of his group because he could not see a clear interest rate trend. Investors said that volatility was on the rise because geopolitical factors such as a volatile dollar and fluctuating oil prices made it difficult for central banks to give investors and markets a clear roadmap. T.S. Davide Oneglia, director of European and Global Macro at Lombard. BROKEN MODELS The Fed is not the only central bank that has cut rates. It also faces inflationary threats from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The dollar, which is the backbone of global trade, commodity values and asset valuations has become weaker and volatile due to trade war stress, and anxiety about government debt. Nick Rees, Monex Europe's head of Macro Research and a specialist in macroeconomics, said: "That is a massive shift that has occurred on the global markets. Everyone is trying to evaluate it." All of the standard economic rules that we use to forecast are totally broken right now. The dollar has fallen almost 9% this year against other major currencies, but it has also risen since the war between Israel and Iran broke out. Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a policymaker at the European Central Bank, said that if the volatility in oil prices continues for a long time, then it may be necessary to adjust its rate-cutting plans. Analysts said that the new status quo of markets could be a period of central bank surprises, which would create rapid shifts to market narratives, asset pricing, and volatility trends. Oneglia stated that "we're entering a new cycle where variables are more volatile because events and human factors play a major role, and not just monetary policy, which is easily predictable." Kit Juckes, Societe Generale’s head of FX Strategy, said that Norway’s surprise cut was due to the fact that the Norwegian crown had been a “runaway top currency” during the trade war era. The Swiss franc is soaring, as investors search for alternative wealth stores that do not use U.S. dollar. This has led to a drop in import costs and pushed the economy towards deflation. The franc rose on Thursday against the dollar, as traders believed that the SNB's cuts were too small to prevent deflation. Ninety One's multi-assets head John Stopford stated that the risk of global stock prices increasing was a concern and that options that offer protection against incoming volatility appeared to be fairly inexpensive. He bought bonds in countries where rates and inflation could drop materially. For example, New Zealand. But he was against longer-dated U.S. Treasuries, and German Bunds, where the economic uncertainty is higher, and borrowing by government will likely increase. After investors relaxed over tariffs, global stocks are still almost 20% higher than their April lows. Stopford stated that there is more to be concerned about in the near term. Stopford continued, "The stock exchange feels like a thatched home in a hot land with a high fire risk. People aren't charging a lot to insure this house."
Andy Home: US Aluminium smelters compete with Big Tech to get scarce power.
In the United States, it's been 45 years since anyone has built a primary aluminum smelter.
Alumax opened the Mt Holly plant, in South Carolina, in 1980. The country now had 33 smelters with a combined capacity of nearly five million metric tonnes of aluminium per year.
Six is the number today. Two have been completely curtailed. Mt Holly and two other plants are operating below capacity. The annual production has dropped to 700,000 tonnes.
Emirates Global Aluminium is hoping to turn the tide in Oklahoma with a new facility. The new plant joins Century Aluminum which received federal funding from the Joe Biden Administration for a "green" low carbon smelter in the Ohio/Mississippi River Basin.
Both projects are facing the same problem. The high power prices have killed most of the country's metal smelters, and the lack of affordable power has discouraged anyone from building a smelter since the turn of the century.
The fact that tech companies are willing to pay anything for their data centres, which consume a lot of electricity, makes it difficult for any smelter projects to compete with them for power.
No power, no metal
Since ancient times, aluminium compounds have been used as dye fixers by the Egyptians and for pottery by the Persians.
It wasn't until early in the 19th century, however, that someone figured out how to refine it into metal. Even then it was still a costly curiosity. In 1869, the global production of aluminium was only two tons and it was worth more than gold.
Charles Martin Hall, in the United States, and Paul Heroult, in France, independently discovered a solution that involved electrolysing an intermediate product known as alumina.
Hall-Heroult is the dominant process for producing metals that are ubiquitous in vehicles, buildings and consumer packaging. It also requires a large amount of power.
According to the U.S. Aluminum Association, it takes 14,821 Kilowatt-hours to produce a ton aluminium. A smelter of modern size with an annual capacity of 750,000 tonnes requires more electricity than a city of the size of Boston.
It's a huge challenge for primary aluminum producers in the United States, given that the Energy Information Administration has estimated the country to be facing a deficit of energy of 31 million megawatt hours by 2030 and 48 millions by 2035.
ALUMINIUM VERSUS AI
Matt Aboud is Senior Vice President for Strategy & Business Development, Century Aluminum. He says that the power to build a U.S. aluminum smelter is now available.
He explained the problem at last week's CRU Aluminium Conference, held in London. It is that there is no fixed price for a long time, and a smelter would need that to secure its profitability, as well as pay off construction costs which will reach billions of dollars.
According to the Aluminum Association, a new U.S. aluminum smelter needs a minimum of a 20-year contract for power at a cost not exceeding $40 per MWh in order to be financially viable.
Every smelter is competing with Big Tech. They are both on the hunt for energy in order to power their next-generation artificially intelligent data centres.
According to the Aluminum Association report released on rebuilding U.S. Supply Chain Resilience, tech companies are "not limited in what they will pay" for reliable 24/7 electricity.
Microsoft reportedly paid Constellation Energy $115 per megawatt hour in order to restart Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant in Pennsylvania.
It warned that even reactivating idle aluminium lines would be difficult, given that the average price of electricity in 2023 will be $73.42 per megawatt hour (MWh) for the four states where smelters are located.
"WHERE the wind sweeps down the plain"
EGA has not yet signed a deal to provide electricity for its 600,000-ton smelter project in Oklahoma. According to a Memorandum of Understanding, signed by the state governor Kevin Stitt, the final go-ahead depends on an agreement "power solution framework" based on a Special Rate Offer from Public Service Company of Oklahoma.
According to the EIA, Oklahoma produces almost three times as much energy as it consumes.
In 2023, natural gas will account for around half of the electricity generated in Oklahoma. Wind power will make up another 42%. Oklahoma is actually the third-largest wind power state, after Texas and Iowa.
To run an aluminum smelter using intermittent wind power, it would require a large amount of grid storage, so gas would be a part of the energy mix.
It's better than coal, but it isn't ideal for an industry that collectively tries to reduce its carbon footprint in order to produce "greener" aluminium.
DO NOT CHANGE IT!
Even if EGA is able to secure a long-term, viable power deal, it will take until the end of this decade for the project to produce its first hot metal.
According to projections by the Aluminum Association, by then, 14 new remelt facilities would have been established, bringing the U.S. scrap aluminum demand to 6.5 millions tons.
Recycling uses much less energy, usually around 5%, than it does to produce new metal. It also has a lower capital cost.
The shortage of scrap is the main obstacle to growth in secondary production in the United States.
Only 43% of beverage cans are recycled in the country. This equates to 800,000 tonnes of aluminum thrown away every year.
Also, it exports large amounts of scrap aluminium. Exports will increase by 17% annually to 2.4 millions tons in 2024. Most of these are destined for China which is hungry for recyclable materials.
To reduce import dependence of a metal classified by all U.S. government agencies as critical, capturing more recyclable material and sending less abroad is a complementary approach.
This is also more cost-effective and faster than waiting to find out if EGA or Century will win the fight with Big Tech to get enough power for a new primary melter.
These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. Mark Potter edited this article
(source: Reuters)