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Low oil prices raise Russia's deficit forecast for 2025 by three times due to the low price risks
The Russian Finance Ministry increased the estimate of the budget deficit for 2025 to 1.7% of the gross domestic product (GDP), from 0.5%, after reducing energy revenues by 24% in anticipation of a prolonged low oil price period. The ministry reduced the forecast for 2025 oil-and-gas revenues to 8.32 trillion Russian roubles ($101.47billion) or 3.7% GDP, from 10.94 trillion Roubles or 5,1% GDP. The ministry also increased spending by 830 billion Russian roubles. In 2025, the Russian government will have increased its state expenditures on national defense by a quarter to 6,3% of the gross domestic product (GDP), which is the highest since the Cold War. The Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said that defence spending won't be affected. The budget priorities are unchanged. "The budget priorities remain unchanged." The Kremlin relies heavily on oil and gas revenues, which have accounted for between a third and a half (or more) of the total federal budget revenue over the last decade. Oil prices fell more than 11% last month due to the slowdown in the global economy caused by trade wars. Siluanov said that the announcement was made after a revision to the average oil price used in the budget calculation for 2025. The previous figure of $69.7 per barrel had been revised down to $56. He added that "everything in the budget will be implemented regardless of external factors and conditions." $1 = 81.9955 Russian Roubles (Reporting and writing by Darya Kosunskaya, Gleb Bryanski, Ksenia Orlova; Editing by Sandra Maler).
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In a 'trade-war' scenario, Russia's economic growth in 2025 is projected to be 1.8%
The Russian economy is at risk from international trade wars triggered by protectionist policies in the United States, says the Economy Ministry. It published for the first-time its forecasts of high risks on Wednesday. This scenario projects the price of Brent crude to be $58.1 a barrel. It will then drop to $50 a barrel by 2026. The economic growth in Russia will be 1.8% compared to the 2.5% of the base scenario which is considered too optimistic by most economists. The ministry stated that the scenario "assumes an escalation in trade wars, and a significant slowdown of the global economy which will reduce the global demand for oil and other Russian traditional export commodities." The ministry previously reduced its forecast of the average price for Brent oil in 2025, in the base scenario, by almost 17%. This equates to $68 a barrel. In the first quarter of this year, Russia's oil revenues and gas revenues decreased by 10%. The base scenario projects the average price of Urals blend oil to be $56 per barrel by 2025. In contrast, the Urals blend is expected to cost $48.8 a barrel. The ministry predicted that the inflation rate in 2025 in the high-risk case would be 8.2% compared to 7.6% for the base scenario. It also warned against a delay in reducing the key rate of the central bank. The ministry warned that "the risk is an untimely shift to a softer monetary and credit environment, which would limit the growth in investment activity and expansion of domestic product." In the high-risk scenario, the rouble is expected to fall to an average of 96.6 dollars per rouble in 2025. This compares to 94.3 for the base scenario. The ministry stated that "the volume of exports of goods will decrease more than imports of goods, which will result in a reduction of trade balance, and as a consequence, a stronger depreciation" of the rouble. (Reporting and writing by Darya Kosunskaya; editing by Ed Osmond).
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Oil prices set to fall at the fastest rate since 2021
The oil prices dropped on Wednesday, and are set to have their biggest monthly drop in nearly three and a quarter years. Saudi Arabia has signaled that it will increase production and expand its market share. Meanwhile, the global trade conflict is reducing the outlook for fuel consumption. Brent crude futures fell $1.16 or 1.81% to $63.09 per barrel at 1:00 pm EDT (17:00 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell $2.38 or 3.94% to $58.04. Brent and WTI are down by about 15% and 18%, respectively, this month. This is the largest percentage drop since November 2021. Both benchmarks fell after Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, said it would not continue to cut oil supply and that the market could survive a long period of low oil prices. Phil Flynn is a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. He said: "It makes me worry that we may be heading towards another production battle." Are the Saudis sending a message to their customers that they will regain market share? We'll just have to wait and watch." Saudi Arabia pushed earlier this month for a higher-than-planned OPEC+ production increase in May. Sources told us last week that several OPEC+ countries will propose a ramping up of production increases for a 2nd consecutive month in June. The group will discuss plans for output on May 5. Analysts at PVM said: "The very real chance that OPEC+ continues to bring additional barrels to market in its fight to maintain order within their ranks is added to diplomatic efforts in Ukraine and Iran which, if successful, means more international crude oil on the water during a period when a trade conflict will squash any hopes of demand growth." U.S. president Donald Trump announced tariffs on U.S. imported goods on April 2, and China responded by imposing its own duties, sparking a trade conflict between the two world's largest oil consumers. Oil prices continued to be impacted by concerns about the weakening global economy. Data released on Wednesday revealed that the U.S. economic contraction was exacerbated by the influx of goods imported into the country by companies eager to avoid increased costs. A poll suggests that Trump's tariffs make it likely the global economy will slide into recession in 2019. Data showed that the U.S. consumer's confidence fell to its lowest level in almost five years in April, due to growing tariff concerns. Last week, U.S. crude stockpiles dropped unexpectedly due to higher demand from refineries and exports. This helped limit some price declines. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that crude inventories dropped by 2.7m barrels, to 440.4m barrels for the week ending April 25. This was in contrast with the analysts' expectation in a survey of a 429,000 barrel increase. (Reporting and editing by Peter Graff; Additional reporting and editing by Ahmad Ghaddar and Siyi Liu, both in Singapore and London; Reporting and Editing by Shadia Nazarala)
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Pemex's quarterly losses of $2.12 billion as sales fall
The Mexican state-owned energy company Pemex announced a net loss for the first quarter of $43.3 billion ($2.12 billion), mainly due to falling sales, increasing expenses, currency losses, and financial costs. Pemex reported in a filing to Mexico's stock market that revenue during the period of January to March fell by 2.5%, to 395.59 trillion pesos. This was primarily due to lower crude sales volumes. Pemex, along with its partners, pumped 1,62 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd), down 11.3% from a year ago. In its local refineries the company processed 936, 000 barrels per day (bpd), down 5% from a year ago. According to the filing, its refinery unit produced 305,000 bpd gasoline and 171,000bpd diesel in the third quarter. Pemex reported that its debt for the quarter totaled $101.1 Billion, an increase of $97.6 Billion from the fourth quarter 2024. Pemex, the most indebted company in the energy sector in terms of debt, has received government assistance in billions pesos. Pemex reported that it received 80 billion pesos in the first quarter from the government, mostly to pay off debt. It added that its goal was to "reduce the financial debt over the course the year, with a balance lower at the end 2025 than the end 2024." The Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum pledged to increase production to 1.8 millions bpd, despite the fact that older fields are depleting, especially in the Gulf of Mexico. More recent discoveries failed to make up for this. Jorge Alberto Aguilar, Pemex’s chief of corporate planning, said that the company is working hard to achieve the 1.8-million bpd target by the end the year and to maintain it at this level.
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The Brazilian indigenous fund wants to take on nature finance
Global expansion of community-managed nature fund In four years, investments in communities have increased by 38% but are still small Community funds are looking for local priorities and a simpler bureaucracy By Andre Cabette Fabio Atelie Derequine Indigenous Fashion Collective, founded in 2020, produces masks against COVID-19. Models are dressed and take part in runways in Brazil's industrial city of Manaus. This fashion collective provides jobs for Indigenous people and is a platform to promote their rights. Vanda Witoto is the person responsible for mobilizing AtelieDerequine. She said, "We bring political awareness to the runways where we have raised banners to demarcate" Indigenous territories. The growth of the collective was made possible by a 50,000 reais (8,600 dollars) grant from the Indigenous Fund of the Brazilian Amazon (Podaali), the first Amazon rainforest trust run entirely by Indigenous people. In Baniwa, Podaali is the Baniwa word for giving without expecting anything back. Witoto says that Atelie Derequine's life would have been difficult without the Podaali Fund. She said that conventional finance institutions want indigenous people to "just plant trees." They don't even care about us. "We go to international events and no one wants to talk to us," she said. The fashion collective uses Indigenous networks that reach deep into the Amazon where local communities provide seeds and fasteners for clothing. Podaali and the organisers claim that its designs attract support far beyond the Indigenous Community. The Podaali Fund, launched by the Coordination of Indigenous Organizations of the Brazilian Amazon in 2019, is one of a growing number of finance institutions that are led by political groups from Indigenous and local communities. Since 2021, the movement has gained momentum. This is when environmental NGO Rainforest Foundation Norway released a report that showed in the decade prior, only 1% global funding had been allocated to climate adaptation and mitigation. The U.N. COP26 Climate talks in Glasgow, that year, wealthy nations and charities pledged an increase of funding for Indigenous peoples and other land owners. Land Rights Data from the Rights and Resources Initiative (a global land rights alliance) shows that $2.22 billion has been disbursed between 2021 and 204 to protect and manage the land of these communities. This is 38% more money than the four previous years, but it's still a relatively small amount compared to global investments. Juan Carlos Jintiach said that there are "entities" who do not want to abandon colonialist attitudes, and therefore, they will continue to ignore investments in Indigenous communities as well as other local communities. He said that a large portion of the climate change and biodiversity investments managed by foreigners is spent on administrative costs before they reach local communities. In a report published last year, the Forest Tenure Funders Group - a coalition of wealthy nations and philanthropic organizations that had pledged to give $1.7 billion in grants to communities by 2025 - concluded that only 10.6% was managed directly by communities. According to a report published by Shandia in 2023, an initiative launched by GATC, by creating its own fund, the Indigenous Movement aims to have more control over money and to distribute it to local priorities. This will also simplify bureaucracy. Podaali belongs to a network of nine funds that are part of the Amazonian communities of Brazil. This includes "quilombola", descendants of enslaved Africans, and other groups who depend on the forest. Aurelio Vianna is a programme officer at international NGO Tenure Facility. This organization helps to structure community funds, and is one of Podaali’s funders. Vianna stated that the funds were being directed by Indigenous leadership "despite enormous global backlash" towards nature-focused policies, such as U.S. Government's cuts to global climate projects. SIMPLIFIED BUREAUCRACY Podaali is located in a downtown office building, far from tourist areas. The building's inner doors and windows are reinforced with metal grids to ensure security. Rose Meire Apurina is Podaali’s deputy director. She said that funding decisions were based on simple questions to reduce bureaucratic hurdles and snarls. She said that instead of prescribing top-down what types of initiatives should be prioritized by communities, the fund aims to "intensify" the work already done. Podaali awarded between 20,000 reais (3,500 dollars) and 50,000 reais (8,800 dollars) in 2023 and 2024 to 77 initiatives. The money was spent in part to purchase drones to monitor forests and to finance protests in Brasilia against anti-environmental laws. Last year, Podaali raised $9 million ($1.6 million), mainly with international partners, such as the U.S. based Wellspring Philanthropic Fund Christensen Fund Nia Tero Foundation. Brazil's Indigenous Movement is looking to expand these funds beyond the Amazon with Podaali. Last year, at the Climate Week in New York Apib (Brazil's largest indigenous umbrella organization) launched a fund named Jaguata with Podaali’s support. Dinamam Tuxa, Apib Coordinator, said that financiers are prioritizing the Amazon over less-known natural areas like the Cerrado Savannah. The National Institute for Space Research has listed the Cerrado savannah as Brazil's deforested Biome by 2024. Jaguata is determined to close this gap.
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US sanctions against Iran ahead of nuclear talks
Washington is seeking to increase pressure on Tehran by imposing sanctions on Wednesday on entities that it believes are involved in the illegal trade of Iranian petrochemicals and petroleum. In a press release, the U.S. State Department announced that sanctions would be imposed on seven entities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey and Iran. The Department accused these entities of trading Iranian petroleum products and petrochemicals. Two vessels were targeted. In a separate press release, U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated that the action was taken against four sellers and one purchaser of Iranian petrochemicals valued at hundreds of millions dollars. The action on Wednesday is the latest step taken against Tehran since Trump re-established his "maximum press" campaign, which included efforts to reduce Iran's oil exports and prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Rubio stated that the President was committed to reducing Iran's illicit oil exports, including those to China, to zero as part of his campaign to exert maximum pressure. The Iranian mission at the United Nations, New York, did not respond immediately to a comment request. This action is taken as the United States has resumed discussions with Iran about its nuclear program. The U.S.-Iran negotiators are scheduled to meet again in Rome this Saturday. Trump, in his first term from 2017-2021, rescinded the U.S.'s participation in a 2015 agreement between Iran and major world powers which placed strict limitations on Tehran’s uranium-enrichment activities as a trade for relief of sanctions. Trump also reimposed U.S. sanctions. Since then, Iran's uranium enrichment has exceeded the limits set by that agreement. Western powers accuse Iran a secret agenda of developing nuclear weapons capability through enriching uranium above the level they claim is acceptable for a civil atomic energy program. Tehran claims its nuclear program is solely for civilian energy purposes.
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Saudi Arabia is able to live with lower oil price, according to sources
Five sources familiar with the discussions said that Saudi Arabian officials were briefing industry experts and allies to explain the kingdom's unwillingness to support the oil market through further cuts in supply and its ability to handle a long period of low oil prices. Saudi Arabia's possible policy shift could indicate a move to produce more and expand its market share. This would be a major change, after spending five years balancing the oil market by producing a large amount of oil as a member of the OPEC+. These cuts helped to support prices and, as a result, the revenue from oil exports that many oil producers depend on. The Saudi government’s communications office has not responded to a comment request on this matter. Sources said that Riyadh was angry because Kazakhstan and Iraq produced above their OPEC+ target. These targets are set by the group to maintain a balance between supply and demand in oil markets. OPEC+ source said that after pushing its members to meet these targets and compensate for the oversupply of recent months, a frustrated Riyadh has changed tact. Saudi Arabia pushed OPEC+ to increase output more than planned in May. This decision helped push oil prices down below $60 a barrel, a four-year low. Prices are down, which is bad for oil producers who rely on exports to finance their economies. Saudi Arabia, for example, has a low cost of production but they still need a higher price of oil to fund government expenditures. Many large oil producing countries are forced to reduce their budgets when oil prices drop. Saudi Arabia appears to be telling allies and experts they are prepared to do this. Five sources claim that Saudi officials have in recent weeks told their allies and participants in the market they can cope with the price drop by increasing borrowing and reducing costs. One source said, "The Saudis may have to scale back some of their major projects if they want lower prices." Due to the sensitive nature of the subject, all sources declined to provide their names. According to the International Monetary Fund, Saudi Arabia requires oil prices to be above $90 in order to balance its budget. This is higher than the other major OPEC producers, such as the United Arab Emirates. Analysts have stated that Saudi Arabia could be forced to cut back or delay some projects as a result of the drop in price. Not a price war yet OPEC+ could decide to increase output again in June. This includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia. Saudi Arabia contributes two fifths of the 5% global supply cut by OPEC+. Two of the five Russian sources familiar with Russian thinking and conversations have confirmed that Riyadh is planning to increase output faster. Two sources stated that Russia prefers the group to stick with slower production increases. The office of Alexander Novak, Russian Deputy Premier Minister, did not respond to a comment request. Saudi Arabia and Russia - the de facto leaders in OPEC+ - make up the largest contributions to OPEC+'s cuts. The Russian budget is about $70 per barrel, and spending by the Kremlin has increased due to the Russian conflict in Ukraine. One of the sources stated that Russia could see a further drop in revenues as the prices of its sanctioned, discounted oil could fall under $50 a barrel due to OPEC+'s increased output. Reasons for Change Theories about the apparent shift in Saudi strategy include punishing OPEC+ member countries that exceed their quotas, or a fight for market shares after ceding the ground to non OPEC+ producers like the United States and Guyana. A higher output could also give President Donald Trump a boost, as he has asked OPEC for a production increase to keep U.S. gas prices low. Trump will visit Saudi Arabia next month and may offer Riyadh a package of arms and a nuke agreement. OPEC+ has decided to triple the planned increase in output to 411,000 bpd. OPEC+ still holds back over 5 million bpd. The group aims at reducing these restrictions by the end 2026. Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst, said: "We still would call this a managed' unwinding of cuts. This is not a battle for market share."
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European steelmakers warn of trade and pricing risks despite strong quarterly earnings
The top European steelmakers' first-quarter earnings were better than expected, but they warned that trade tensions around the world, low European prices, and market volatility will cloud the outlook for the remainder of the year. ArcelorMittal, which reported on Wednesday a smaller-than-expected drop in its quarterly core profit, flagged trade disruptions as a risk to its 2025 steel demand forecasts, particularly in the U.S. and China, sending its shares down more than 5%. Aditya Mittal, CEO of world's second largest steelmaker Aditya Mittal, said that increased uncertainty over global trade terms is damaging business confidence. If not resolved quickly, it could cause further economic disruption. SSAB, which also reported a smaller-than-expected drop in earnings on Tuesday, said the proximity of its facilities to customers, and specialised products helped cushion the immediate impact of new U.S. tariffs, but warned of a "more uncertain than usual" second-quarter outlook in its steel division. Aperam, a steel company based in Luxembourg, also reported results slightly above expectations Wednesday. It attributed this to the higher volumes it saw in Europe as well as the consolidation of the U.S. business. Aperam is a manufacturer of stainless steels and specialty alloys. It operates mostly in Brazil and the EU, with limited exposure to the U.S. The group warned of further pricing pressures on earnings for the second quarter. However, it is expected to improve in comparison with the performance from the previous three-month period. Its shares fell in the early trading after it admitted that it is difficult to give a forecast for future quarters. Timoteo Di Maulo, group CEO, said that it was difficult to make reliable projections in this volatile environment. Maxime Kogge is an Oddo-BHF Analyst. He believes that the second quarter will bring relief, as trade restrictions are expected to increase prices. European players may also reduce their exposure to China and restructure efforts could pay off. The European steel industry is facing a combination of high energy prices, cheap Chinese producers, and higher tariffs for exports to the United States at a time where the global market is already struggling with excess capacity. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said earlier this month that "the global steel excess capacity will continue to rise, (...) fueled by cross-border investment by Chinese steel firms." ArcelorMittal's assessment of the Asian market was mixed. It expects that the strong demand in India will continue, supported by the new Indian safeguard duty of 12% on steel imports from China. The group believes that in China, overcapacity will continue to result in low steel spreads, which is the difference between the price of steel and the cost to produce it. ArcelorMittal, despite its cautious tone in its statement, reaffirmed their 2025 investment plans and noted that European steel spreads were rebounding, supported by the European Commission’s Steel and Metals Action Plan. They also noted trade barriers against imported goods and an anticipated rise in Germany’s infrastructure spending. On May 8, Outokumpu Oyj, a Finnish steel company, and Acerinox, a Spanish steel company will report their first quarter results.
US private sector delegation to Greenland
A U.S. delegation led by an ex-official of the Trump administration is scheduled to visit Greenland next week to explore potential investment opportunities within the vast natural resources on this Arctic island.
Since Donald Trump's inauguration in January, the U.S. has become more interested in Greenland. This self-governing territory is a Danish territory. The increased interest has caused tensions between Washington and Copenhagen. Trump has refused to exclude the possibility of taking Greenland militarily if Denmark refuses to sell it.
This is the first visit by a delegation from the private sector to the Arctic Island since Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the leader of the probusiness Demokratiit Party was elected as premier.
Representatives from the mining companies Critical Metals Corp., Cogency Power. American Renewable Metals and Refacture are part of the delegation.
Drew Horn, the CEO of GreenMet, and former Chief of Staff for the Office of International Affairs in the Department of Energy under the first Trump administration will lead the group.
Horn said: "I am not trying to orchestrate anything crazy, like a purchase of Greenland or an acquisition by the United States."
He said that the consortium he represents includes institutional investors such as Cantor Fitzgerald and Cerberus Capital.
The trip comes just days after Denmark's King Frederik visited Greenland, in a gesture of unity between Greenland with its former colonial leader.
Premier Nielsen, who visited Copenhagen last week, affirmed the ties between Denmark and the United States, while calling for more respect.
Greenland has substantial mineral deposits that could be worth trillions of dollar. The mining industry is dominated by Australians, Canadians, and British companies, with little U.S. involvement.
Horn believes that capitalization, growth in the private sector and collaboration will lead to greater collaboration for an independent Greenland supported by U.S. private investment.
The Tanbreez mine is one of the largest rare earth deposits in the world.
Horn believes Greenland’s openness to investment from the private sector will strengthen its independence and provide a viable business plan.
Copenhagen will be visited by the delegation at both the start and the end of their Greenland tour.
(source: Reuters)