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Asian shares fall as oil prices and yields increase ahead of Fed and BOJ meetings

Asian shares fall as oil prices and yields increase ahead of Fed and BOJ meetings
Asian shares fall as oil prices and yields increase ahead of Fed and BOJ meetings

Asian shares struggled on Tuesday, as investors considered Middle East tensions. Industry figures also called for a halt in AI development. Meanwhile, higher oil prices and bond yields heightened caution ahead of 'key' central bank meetings taking place in the U.S.

Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, launched a new offensive on Saudi Arabia Monday. Riyadh had blamed Iran-backed fighters based in Iraq for an assault on the east-west oil pipeline of the kingdom that could disrupt up to 4% global supply. Gulf Arab states have also delayed planned talks with Iran.

Brent crude was up by 1.21% at $106.96 a barrel, while U.S. Crude rose 1.27% to $102,68 per barrel.

In a recent note, Yokoo Akihiko, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank said that the markets are likely to continue to focus on the possibility that higher crude oil costs could contribute to 'inflationary forces, and in turn, drive interest rates higher.

Leading AI figures have called for a'slow down in development of AI technology. This has continued to resonate through the markets, even as U.S. president Donald Trump has played down concerns about misuse. He said that existing U.S. protections are adequate and China would benefit from any doubts regarding AI development.

MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.12%. South Korea's 0.25% drop led the way. Japan's Nikkei index edged up 0.19% after reversing its early losses. Shares of chip-related companies were mixed. South Korea's Samsung Electronics lost 0.2%, while Japan's Kioxia rose 3.3%.

Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day session later that day. The markets have priced in a 90% probability of a rate increase, which would be the first since mid-2023.

Morgan Stanley analysts said in an?address that "while inflation continues to decelerate" recent upside surprises have made the pace of disinflation slower and less convincing. They expect a 25 basis point hike on Wednesday and December.

"We can see both arguments for a hike or a hold. However, signs of second-round impacts from energy prices and strong demand linked to AI-related investments, as well as a neutral rate which is temporarily higher and concerns over credibility, mean that the balance of risk now argues in favor of a slightly more restrictive policy."

Overnight, the benchmark yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 5% for first time in 2023. Germany's 10-year yield rose above 3.51% to its highest level since 2009, and U.S. Treasury bond yields also touched 5% overnight. Tuesday, Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond rate jumped back to 3%.

Bank of Japan will likely raise its interest rate to 1.25% by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day session on Friday, and signify that more tightening is to come. The Bank of Japan is looking to bolster the yen following intervention that helped move the currency away from a low for 40 years.

The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, and euro, increased 0.05%, to 99.53. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.03%, to $1.1543.

The dollar rose 0.17% against the Japanese yen to 154.61.

Spot gold fell 0.15%, to $4,291.59 per ounce. Spot silver dropped 0.31%, to $63.03 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)