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Andy Home: Congo conflict double trouble for the global tin industry

Alphamin Resources' decision suspending operations at the Bisie Tin Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo highlights the fragility of the global tin supply chain.

As the M23 rebels advance deeper into Congo's mineral-rich Kivu Provinces, one of the largest tin mining operations in the world is returning to Myanmar after a long absence.

Tin's supply volatility is once again generating price volatility. On the news, London Metal Exchange's three-month tin soared 11.5% and reached a three-year high price of $37100 per metric tonne.

The Congo conflict is a serious problem for the global market. Not only are units being lost, but also the transparency of the artisanal production in the region.

SUPPLY-CHAIN INFLUENCE

The Bisie mine produced around 17,300 tonnes of contained tin in the past year. This represents about 6% of the global mine supply.

Alphamin Resources is ramping up production at what was formerly an artisanal mining site. The company aims to produce 20,000 tons of ore this year before suspending operations.

It has been a major supplier of raw materials to China's smelters since August 2023, when the Man Maw Mine in Myanmar was suspended. Wa State authorities, who control Man Maw, have opened the process of issuing new mining licenses to signal its imminent restart.

It will take months to resume operations after such a lengthy closure, and the loss of Bisie at the same time compounds China's immediate raw material challenge.

China's refined-tin production is remarkably resilient, despite the loss in feed from Man Maw. According to the International Tin Association, in 2024 national output increased by 4.6% on an annual basis.

The ITA attributed the growth to an unprecedented use of scrap that fueled a 14.9% increase in secondary production year-over-year, as well as the reduction of concentrates stock.

Shanghai Metal Market, a local data provider, describes historically low conversion rates as a result of the reduced inventories.

The market's reaction to the suspension of Bisie suggests that it expects an impact on the world's biggest producer of refined Tin.

Transparency is lost

Alphamin's move to evacuate non-essential personnel from Bisie is a sign that the M23 rebels have advanced beyond the city of Goma, which they captured on the eastern border of the Congo.

By March 12, the insurgents had reached a distance of 125 km from the mine in the Walikale District of North Kivu.

The group is moving through a region rich in minerals, where Bisie is the sole official tin producer. The rest of Congo's production is produced by artisanal cooperatives.

According to the Congo Ministry of Mines, Alphamin exports 27,000 tons and the unofficial sector, 16,000 tons. Of these, 3,300 tons are from North Kivu and South Kivu.

Kivu has been used as a test bed for years to integrate responsible artisanal production in the global supply chains, not only for tin, but also tantalum and tungsten. ITSCi is the organisation that is responsible for ensuring compliance with OECD conflict mineral rules. ITSCi was born out of the ITA, and now is backed jointly by the Tantalum Niobium International Studies Centre. ITSCi, according to a report dated February 28, had suspended certain activities like inspecting sites and tagging the production in "some areas but not all" of North Kivu and South Kivu Provinces.

It is difficult to tell what is going on in the unofficial industry, assuming that work continues at all. This raises the risk that tin from an expanding conflict zone could be illegally exported into the official supply chain.

REPUTATIONAL RISK

This would be a blow to the years of effort spent convincing end users such as Apple Inc. that minerals from Congo can be produced responsibly, even in the artisanal industry. The ITSCi program is not without critics. It is at the centre of a lawsuit filed by the Congolese Government against Apple subsidiaries located in France and Belgium.

The metal of the future, tin, is at risk of regaining the problematic conflict mineral label of the past if there are no checks on the amount of tin produced or where it goes in the unofficial sector of the Kivu Region.

The more M23 rebels advance into the Kivu region the greater the risk for the market and its reputation. The M23 rebels' withdrawal at the last minute from negotiations with the government indicates that they have no intention of stopping anytime soon.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)