Even after Trump's deal, Ukraine still faces a long and uncertain road to mining boom

A small team of eco-consultants dropped sensors into the ground to measure the water level in the snow-covered fields of central Ukraine. This is where the largest lithium deposits in the country are found.

The small Ukrainian mining company UkrLithiumMining that has the license contracted the environmental survey years before any mining operations on the undeveloped site.

This shows how much more work needs to be done for a mineral deal between Ukraine, the United States and other countries before it generates any significant revenue. The President Donald Trump views the minerals deal, which he will clinch with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday in Washington, as America's means of recouping some of the money that it has given Ukraine in financial aid and weapons to fight Russia which invaded Ukraine three years ago.

Denys Alyoshin, Chief Strategy Officer of UkrLithiumMining said that the Washington agreement was a positive step because it makes Ukraine more resilient to Russian aggression over the long term.

He said that without some sort of Western security guarantee, developing the Polokhivske Lithium deposit would be difficult. The deposit, one of Europe's largest, is only 240 km from the Russian border.

Alyoshin said, "Before war broke out I had many commercial negotiations with... investors interested in the project." "But once the war broke out, a rational CEO wouldn't go to a place where there was a war. They would go to Zimbabwe or Canada. There are many places where there isn't a war.

The Trump administration, despite Zelenskiy's repeated requests, has not offered Kyiv any security guarantees. This has led to doubts about the commercial viability of developing rare mineral deposits, which are used in high-tech gadgets and batteries. Even if Russia agrees to a ceasefire this year, there is still the risk of war. The draft minerals agreement, which was reviewed by, included reassuring words but did not guarantee security. The focus was on creating a U.S. and Ukraine-managed "Reconstruction Investment Fund", to which Kyiv would contribute 50% of the future revenues from monetizing state-owned resources.

The terms of the agreement are very broad, and more negotiations will be required to nail down the details.

Four experts have told

Alyoshin stated that even if peace is restored to Ukraine, UkrLithiumMining will need to raise $350 millions and conduct a feasibility report for at least 1.5 years before they can begin building a mine or enrichment plant.

"It will mean that we can reach a steady stage production...it could be in 2029." The next U.S. Presidential elections will take place in 2028. Trump, who has championed minerals cooperation to secure peace, is constitutionally prohibited from running for another term.

Seven mining executives and analysts said that Alyoshin’s timeline was optimistic. The typical exploration period is four years. A feasibility study will take an additional year to complete before construction can begin. The majority of the lithium deposits in Ukraine have been identified during the Soviet period and there hasn't been any exploration or updates for many years, according to Federico Gay. BMI is a specialist information provider in London for the supply chain for lithium-ion battery used in electric cars.

He said that even if all the pieces fall into place, it will take at least eight years to develop the Polokhivske Deposit to the point where it produces usable lithium. Gay said that the deposit was deep and could require as much as $800 million to build the concentrator and mine. He added that an additional $1 billion would be required to produce the compounds for batteries.

Alyoshin stated that his company planned to eventually produce 1.5 million tonnes per year of raw ore and then process it into 300,000 tons of petalite concentrat - a lithium-rich substance.

Alyoshin said that with additional investment the lithium carbonate concentrate could be refined further to produce 22,000 tons of battery-grade Lithium Carbonate.

It has not been previously reported the specifics of production and processing timetables planned at the Polokhivske Deposit.

Classified Reserves

The demand for these minerals is very high. Rare earths and lithium are both used to make electric vehicle batteries. Lithium can also be found in auto motors, wind turbines, and advanced military weapon systems. According to mining experts and analysts, it is a huge undertaking to convert Ukraine's lithium and rare earth reserves into mines that can be operated and processing facilities built. Ukraine doesn't produce rare earths, but according to the Institute of Geology of Ukraine, it has large deposits of these minerals including lanthanum. cerium, and neodymium. The detailed data on these reserves is classified. Investors might be wary if the U.S. receives mined minerals as a return for security assurances, protection against future Russian attacks, and aid. Mining companies would use royalty agreements to secure financing from investors. They receive a percentage of sales revenue once production starts.

While Trump is in office, any deal he makes to gain access to Ukraine's vital minerals will not allow the United States to challenge China's huge advantage in these key minerals. Julian Kettle, Vice-Chair Metals and Mining of Wood Mackenzie, said that while it is a counter to China it still poses the issue of where and how the minerals will be processed.

The country is a producer of titanium, and has large graphite and Lithium deposits. You can increase production in existing mines. "But when it comes to new frontier development, the time from discovery to delivery of materials could be up to ten years."

China is the third largest lithium producer in the world, behind Australia and Chile. China is the top producer of rare-earth elements in the world, including neodymium, used to produce strong, lightweight, powerful permanent magnetic materials used in military equipment.

The U.S. Geological Survey, a government agency does not disclose details about lithium production in the United States. The USGS estimated that 45,000 metric tonnes of rare earth oxides contained in mineral concentrates was produced last year, making the U.S. second largest concentrate producer behind China.

The gap is huge. USGS reports that China mined 270,000 tons of rare earths last year, or 69% of global production. It has even more control over rare earth processing, a complex process that is highly polluting.

Beijing produces 90% of all rare earth elements.

NEGOTIATIONS TO BE CONTINUED

Dominic Raab is the head of global affairs for Appian Capital Advisor, a firm that invests into mining companies. He said the deal between Ukraine and the U.S. was a step in the right direction in terms of helping to fund Ukraine's development.

Raab said that there was still a lot of due diligence and negotiations to be conducted. He previously served as the former British deputy prime minister and secretary of state for foreign affairs.

Raab stated that Appian is interested in investing in Ukraine’s mineral projects if there was more information about the geological potential of the country.

According to BMI, Ukraine is home to significant amounts of rare earth elements and lithium, graphite titanium, graphite used in nuclear power generation, as well as uranium. "Ukraine's not been mapped for 30 years." Gracelin Baskaran is the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' critical minerals security program.

She said, however, that the mining industry - which uses around one-fifth as much energy worldwide - requires a robust electrical infrastructure: "Ukraine was bombed out." The state of the infrastructure in Ukraine and the security risks are too high to consider it a serious competitor. (Reporting from Pratima Deai in London, and Olena Harma in Kyiv. Additional reporting by Thomas Peter at Kopanky, and Ernest Scheyder at Houston. Editing by Veronica Brown and Mike Collett White.

(source: Reuters)