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International nickel costs have probably struck a flooring, states Macquarie

Global nickel prices may have struck a flooring, according to a Macquarie analyst who sees a. market recovery driven by strong need from the steel sector. and as a surplus of ore supplies diminishes after Indonesia slowed. production authorizations.

Our belief is that we have actually seen the bottom, we've seen the. supply modifications, we see the unpredictability in future supply, and. that is providing us rather a lot of support where the costs are. today, Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon informed a conference organised. by Shanghai Metals Market in Jakarta this week.

He forecast LME money nickel prices at $17,379 per metric load. this year, down from $21,491 per ton last year.

Money nickel on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was. trading at around $17,500 a heap on Thursday.

The cost could rebound to $20,500 per lot in 2025 and. gradually increase to $23,000 per ton in 2028, Lennon stated.

Mining approvals in top producer Indonesia faced delays this. year for different minerals including nickel, triggering a drop in. ore stocks at smelters and forcing some business to import. ore from the Philippines.

The Indonesian government approved production quotas, known. as RKABs, for around 240 million metric tons of nickel ore. every year for the next 3 years.

That disappointed the 260 million tons ore need estimated. by the Indonesian Nickel Miner Association (APNI) this year.

As of today, only around 220 million tons of yearly. output has actually been authorized this year, leading to scarcities at. smelters, APNI Secretary General Meidy Katrin Lengkey told the. very same conference.

Smelters have actually lowered their ore inventories very, very. drastically, Macquarie's Lennon stated.

Hearing what we do find out about the ore supply restrictions, I. we believe that (nickel metal oversupply this year) is now. probably most likely to be between 50,000 and 100,000 heaps, rather. than over 100,000 tons, Lennon stated, describing Macquarie's. previous quote.

In the middle of low rates and increasing expenses, nickel manufacturers such as. BHP and Anglo-American, are also slashing. output, he stated.

As needed, Lennon stated primary nickel intake internationally. is expected to grow 8.9% to 3.53 million metric loads this year,. compared to the 6.3% growth in supply.

Paul White, secretary general of the International Nickel. Study hall, informed the conference that primary nickel need is. estimated to increase by 7.9% this year, comparable to last year.

Strong stainless-steel production in China and Indonesia. will underpin nickel demand, Lennon and White said.

Lennon added that nickel intake in the battery sector,. which stalled in 2015 due to high battery stockpiles, will. resume its growth in 2024.

Jerome Baudelet, sales and marketing director of nickel &&. lithium at French miner Eramet, stated need for nickel for. batteries is expected to jump to 2.7 million tons in 2035,. representing 48% of worldwide nickel need, up from 687,000 heaps. in 2025.

(source: Reuters)