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OPEC+ to hold Dec 1 oil policy meeting online, sources say
OPEC+ will hold its Dec. 1 oil policy meeting online, two OPEC+ sources stated on Monday, with the manufacturer group set to discusss a more hold-up to strategies to raise output. OPEC+, which consists of the Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia, may once again press back output increases since of weak global oil demand, OPEC+ sources informed Reuters last week. Both of the sources on Monday decreased to be recognized by name. OPEC, which has actually not specified the format of the conference, did not respond right away to a request for remark. When the complete OPEC+ group held its last policy conference in June, many ministers went to online. Nevertheless, those from the little group of eight nations that are making the group's most recent round of voluntary oil ouput cuts held a last-minute in-person meeting in Riyadh, the Saudi capital. One OPEC+ source said there was a possibility of a comparable meeting occurring this time in among the Gulf countries, though no plan for such a gathering had actually been circulated.
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LNG is stepping up to solve Europe gas woes, but at a price: Russell
Concerns that Europe is facing a natural gas supply crunch this winter season are overblown, with the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market currently stepping up to prevent any shortage, albeit at greater rates. European gas prices climbed to the highest level in two years last week, with the benchmark front-month agreement at the Dutch TTF center reaching 49.03 euros per megawatt hour on Nov. 22, comparable to $14.97 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Costs have actually rallied about 40% since mid-September amidst worries that the staying Russian pipeline materials to Europe will be halted, or face additional curtailment. New U.S. sanctions on Russia's Gazprombank, the financial institution some remaining European importers of Russian gas usage to process payments, have actually also raised issues about the future of supply. Throw in some early cold weather and the expiry at the end of the year of the transit agreement for Russian gas through Ukraine and it's hardly unexpected that rates have actually been rallying. However there is little indication that Europe will run short of natural gas, and the worldwide LNG market is currently adjusting to show the current characteristics. Europe's November imports of the super-chilled fuel are on track to increase to the greatest considering that February, with product analysts Kpler tracking arrivals of 9.16 million metric loads. This is up from 7.56 million lots in October and 6.37 million in September, which was the most affordable month-to-month total in 3 years. The boost in imports is largely being fulfilled by increased deliveries from the United States, the world's largest LNG exporter and the swing supplier between the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Europe is on track to import 4.32 million tons of U.S. LNG in November, the most because February and up from October's 3.13 million, according to Kpler information. In contrast, Asia's imports of U.S. LNG are approximated to drop to 2.19 million tons in November, the most affordable because march and below 3.21 million in October. Asia's overall imports of LNG are anticipated to decline in November to 23.13 million tons, the lowest since June and down from 24.39 million in October. PRICE LEVEL OF SENSITIVITY The drop is mostly because of weaker imports in the South Asian countries of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, with India, the fourth-biggest purchaser in Asia, expected to land 2.21 million lots in November, down from 2.36 million in October. India is among a group of Asian buyers that tend to be cost sensitive, and the current rise in spot LNG costs will act as a. brake on the country's demand. Area LNG for delivery to North Asia increased to $14.60. per mmBtu in the week to Nov. 22, an 11-month high and up from. $ 13.60 the previous week. The cost has actually been rising gradually in current months and is. now up 76% from its 2024 low of $8.30 per mmBtu. Nevertheless, it's still except peak in 2023 of $17.90 per. mmBtu, reached in late October as energies in Asia stocked up. ahead of winter. The current forecasts for winter season in North Asia are for a. cooler season than in 2015, which might serve to boost need. for LNG, particularly in leading importers China, Japan and South. Korea. Combined with the possibility of higher European need for. LNG, it's likely that area rates will continue to increase. The greater prices will increasingly crowd out the more. price-sensitive purchasers, such as India. But this isn't an indication that the market is under tension,. rather it reveals that it's working as it should. The views revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .
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Quikrete to purchase Summit Products in deal valued at $11.5 bln
Top Materials stated on Monday rival Quikrete would get the company in a money offer valued at $11.5 billion, in a transfer to capitalize on greater demand for structure products. The sector has seen increased deal-making activity due to rising U.S. federal government facilities costs and anticipation of growing need for products. Privately held Quikrete had approached Summit with an acquisition deal in October, Reuters had actually reported. The concrete maker's $52.50 per share offer represents about a 29.2% premium to Top's closing price on Oct. 23, a. day before Reuters reported the talks. Established in 1940, Atlanta, Georgia-based Quikrete is one. of the largest manufacturers of packaged concrete and cement. mixes in The United States and Canada. Denver, Colorado-based Top is a service provider of. building and construction products such as cement, ready-mix concrete and. asphalt. It also uses services such as building and. paving. Morgan Stanley and Evercore served as financial consultants. to Summit, while Davis Polk & & Wardwell LLP functioned as its legal. consultant. Wells Fargo functioned as a financial consultant to Quikrete. and provided a debt-financing commitment for the deal. The transaction is anticipated to close in the first half. of 2025.
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Nigeria growth picks up in third quarter, sustained by services
Nigeria's economy grew 3.46%. yearonyear in the 3rd quarter of 2024, quicker. than in the very first two quarters of the year, statistics company. data revealed on Monday. Gross domestic product (GDP) development was driven mainly by the. services sector, which contributed more than 50% to aggregate. output in the July-September duration. Regardless of the pickup in growth, from 3.19% in the second. quarter and 2.98% in the very first, it was still short of the 6%. target set by President Bola Tinubu when he took workplace last. year in Africa's most populous nation and top oil manufacturer. Tinubu's lightning reform push in the very first weeks of his. administration triggered hope that he could lastly release the. complete capacity of Africa's sluggish economic giant. But 18 months on, the key slabs of his economic overhaul -. decreasing the value of the naira and ditching subsidies - have. set off the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation and. are yet to translate into much faster development. The National Bureau of Statistics stated the services sector. grew 5.19% in the third quarter, contributing 53.58% to. aggregate GDP. Nigeria's dominant oil sector, which accounts for the bulk. of federal government income and forex reserves, broadened. 5.17%, with average everyday oil output of 1.47 million. barrels daily (bpd), up somewhat from 1.41 million bpd in the. 2nd quarter. Development in agriculture slowed to 1.14% from 1.41% in the. 2nd quarter, while markets grew 2.18%, versus 3.53% in. April-June. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Nigeria's economy. will grow 2.9% in 2024 and 3.2% next year.
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Leading NATO official contacts business leaders to get ready for 'wartime circumstance'
A leading NATO military official on Monday prompted services to be prepared for a wartime circumstance and adjust their production and distribution lines accordingly, in order to be less susceptible to blackmail from nations such as Russia and China. If we can make certain that all vital services and products can be provided no matter what, then that is an essential part of our deterrence, the chair of NATO's military committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, stated in Brussels. Speaking at an event of the European Policy Centre think tank, he described deterrence as going far beyond military capability alone, considering that all offered instruments might and would be used in war. We're seeing that with the growing number of sabotage acts, and Europe has seen that with energy supply, Bauer said. We believed we had a handle Gazprom, but we actually had a deal with Mr Putin. And the very same goes for Chinese-owned facilities and goods. We really have a deal with (Chinese. President) Xi (Jinping). Bauer kept in mind western reliances on products from China,. with 60% of all rare earth products produced and 90% processed. there. He said chemical components for sedatives, antibiotics,. anti-inflammatories and low high blood pressure medications were likewise. coming from China. We are naive if we believe the Communist Celebration will never ever utilize. that power. Business leaders in Europe and America require to. understand that the business decisions they make have tactical. consequences for the security of their country, Bauer stressed. Organizations require to be gotten ready for a wartime scenario and. adjust their production and distribution lines appropriately. Due to the fact that while it might be the armed force who wins battles, it's the. economies that win wars..
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Copper bounces on bargain searching and threat hunger
Copper prices rebounded on Monday from two sessions of losses, buoyed by deal hunting and increased danger appetite after the choice of fund manager Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury secretary. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ( LME) was up 1% at $9,054 a metric load by 1100 GMT. There's the odd bit of deal searching going on. A few of these metals are looking quite inexpensive compared to a month earlier, said Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading ( AMT). LME copper has shed 11% since touching a four-month peak on Sept. 30 as speculators liquidated bullish positions on disappointment over the pace of stimulus in top metals customer China and concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will enforce tariffs on China. In wider monetary markets, international stocks increased and bond markets invited Trump's choice of Bessent. It does seem to be a pro-risk rally today. The Treasury pick has reassured some individuals, Smith said. He included that AMT's model for copper, which seeks to reproduce algorithmic trading patterns utilized by computer-driven funds, is likely to flip to bullish from bearish today if copper closes above the $9,000 area. The most traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) closed 0.3% up at 74,160 yuan ($ 10,237.16) a load. While Trump's import tariffs will be a headwind for need potential customers in the medium and long term, quicker inventories drawdown in China and improving area premium will be supportive in the weeks ahead, stated ANZ expert Soni Kumari. Copper inventories in SHFE storage facilities have begun to wear down during China's peak intake season, which covers November and December. In other metals, LME aluminium was up 0.9% at $2,648. a heap, nickel included 0.4% to $16,030, zinc. climbed 1.3% to $3,004 and lead gained 0.6% to $2,034.50. while tin rose 0.6% to $29,095. For the leading stories in metals, click
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Iran will strive not to accept curbs on oil output quota, oil minister says
Iran will make every effort not to accept restrictions on its oil production quota, the country's oil minister Mohsen Paknejad said in a video shared by state media on Monday. Both OPEC and OPEC+, a few of their treatments are not compatible with the condition in which we are ... What is a provided is that we will aim not to accept restrictions to the production quota, Paknejad said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Iran is a member and which pumps around half the world's. oil, is scheduled to fulfill on Dec. 1. The group, and its allies led by Russia and known as OPEC+,. may press back output increases once again due to weak international demand,. according to 3 OPEC+ sources knowledgeable about the conversations. last week. Deepening production cuts is unlikely according to experts. because several OPEC+ members are pressing to pump more, not. less. Paknejad stated Iran was not fretted about a brand-new president. taking workplace in the U.S. which Tehran prepared to ensure. minimal or no obstacles to its oil production under the new. administration. In his first term as U.S. president, Donald Trump withdrew. the U.S. from a 2015 nuclear pact with Iran and re-imposed. sanctions which harm Iran's oil sector. Recently, Iranian oil production has rebounded to. around 3.2 million barrels each day, according to OPEC.
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Area costs up on lower wind supply, higher need
European timely power rates increased on Monday on expectations of falling wind power supply throughout the region and higher demand. German baseload power for Tuesday was at 113.5 euros ($ 118.37) per megawatt hour (MWh) by 1026 GMT, up 92.4%. from the rate paid on Friday for Monday shipment. The comparable French contract was at 111.50. euros/MWh, LSEG data revealed. The Monday agreement was untraded on. Friday. German wind power output was anticipated to fall by 14.5. gigawatts (GW) on Tuesday to 27.4 GW, while the French wind. output was expected to come by 8.5 GW to 4.6 GW, LSEG data. showed. The residual load throughout the region is anticipated to. increase on Tuesday due to a huge reduction in wind power supply. and a boost in demand, said LSEG expert Naser Hashemi. French nuclear availability fell 3 portion indicate. 82% of overall capability as three reactors went offline with. unintended interruptions over the weekend. The Nogent 2 reactor was kept offline after a fault was. identified throughout the restart test as it was ramping back up from. a set up shutdown on Sunday, nuclear operator EDF stated. The Flamanville 1 reactor was taken offline Saturday due to. potential issues with the condenser in the non-nuclear part of. the facility, EDF said. Power intake in Germany is expected to increase 1.8 GW to. 61.1 GW on Tuesday, while need in France is projected to increase. by 4.5 GW to 57.5 GW, LSEG information revealed. German year-ahead power was up 1.6% at 100.80. euros/MWh, while the French 2025 baseload contract. edged up 0.4% at 79.80 euros/MWh. The (German) market now faces another volatile week as the. increasing concerns about gas supply and increasing tensions with. Russia might trigger variations to stay high, Energi Danmark. analysts stated in a day-to-day report. European CO2 allowances for December 2024 gained. 0.8% at 69.79 euros a metric lot.
Europe's gas surplus narrows as LNG redirected to Asia: Kemp,
Europe's gas storage has got off to an uncommonly slow start to the refill season, narrowing the record seasonal surplus acquired from last winter season and improving rates back well above the longterm average.
Inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom have built up by simply 148 terawatt-hours (TWh), or 2.1 TWh per day, given that March 31, information from Gas Infrastructure Europe ( GIE) show.
The refill was the second-slowest since 2012 and well below the previous ten-year seasonal average of 206 TWh, or 2.9 TWh per day.
Europe emerged from the warm winter of 2023/24 with a record amount of gas still in storage, so a relatively slow refill was needed to make sure space did not run out before the onset of winter 2024/25.
But the unusually sluggish start to the refill season has currently whittled away some of the surplus and minimized the likelihood of space going out.
Stocks were 219 TWh (+37% or +1.57 standard discrepancies). above the prior ten-year average on June 9, however the surplus had. narrowed from 277 TWh (+70% or +2.03 standard variances) when. winter ended on March 31.
Storage was already 72% complete on June 9, which was 17. portion points above the ten-year average, but the surplus. had actually narrowed from 22 portion points on March 31.
Based on seasonal patterns over the last years, inventories. are on course to reach 1,223 TWh before the end of the refill. season.
This goes beyond the technical capacity of the system, which is. around 1,145 TWh, so refilling will need to remain sluggish for some. weeks or months more.
However the projected end-of-summer fill has already fallen. gradually from 1,280 TWh on March 31 and the possibility of. overfilling has decreased greatly.
Chartbook: Europe gas storage and rates
The reduced danger of overfilling has actually filtered through into. greater futures rates for summer season 2024 and tighter calendar. spreads for completion of the refill season.
Front-month Dutch TTF futures costs have actually increased to an. average of 34 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) so far in June,. putting them in the 77th percentile for all months since 2010. after changing for inflation.
Front-month costs have actually climbed from an average of simply 26. euros in February, which remained in only the 43rd percentile in real. terms.
The calendar spread in between October and November 2024,. spanning the end of the refill season and start of the winter. drawdown, has tightened from a contango of almost 3 euros in. December and January to 2.20 euros so far in June.
Lower worldwide gas rates have actually motivated more. melted natural gas (LNG) buying by price-sensitive buyers. in south and east Asia, diverting cargoes far from Europe and. helping erode the surplus.
Serious heatwaves across India, Bangladesh, southeast Asia. and south China have also enhanced gas consumption by generators. to satisfy air-conditioning and refrigeration demand, pulling more. LNG away from Europe.
Considering that the summer of 2023, northeast Asia's LNG purchasers have. been prepared to pay a premium over their counterparts in. northwest Europe, however the premium has increased substantially. because the end of winter season 2023/24.
LNG futures rates for gas to be provided to northeast Asia. in July 2024 have been trading more than 3 euros per MWh above. European standard costs since the start of April.
Up until now, Europe's surplus has actually kept it on the sidelines and. enabled more LNG to be diverted to gas-hungry purchasers in south. and east Asia.
Europe's purchasers are likely to remain fairly inactive for. a number of more months given that inventories are still well above. normal.
However as the surplus gradually wears down, competitors in between. Europe and Asia for LNG is most likely to reappear before completion of. 2024, and prices might increase sharply if a cold winter season across both. ends of Eurasia results in a scramble for the last remaining. uncommitted cargoes.
Associated columns:
- Europe's restricted storage space will press gas into. Asia( April 9, 2024)
- Europe gets lucky with a mild, windy winter season( March 13,. 2024)
- Europe's moderate winter season leaves gas stocks at record high. ( March 7, 2024)
John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)