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IEA reduces Russian oil production forecasts due to Ukrainian attacks

The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its estimate on Friday to reflect the fact that Russian oil production will decline by 3% this year to 8.9m barrels per day due to Ukrainian drone attacks against 'energy infrastructure.

Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian energy installations, including oil refineries. The aim is to stop Moscow's war effort.

The Paris-based agency stated in its monthly outlook that "continued strikes against refineries, storage and transport facilities have weakened the production outlook. We have therefore cut our Russian Supply Outlook for this year and next by 85,000 barrels a day and 150,000 bpd, respectively, to an average of 8.8 million barrels a day over 'the forecast period.

In response to the attacks, Russia has also imposed a ban on diesel exports, as well as restrictions on gasoline and jet fuel sales abroad, in order to combat domestic fuel shortages.

The IEA predicts that oil production from Russia, which is the third largest producer in the world, will reach 8.9 mbpd by this year, and 8.8 mbpd by 2027. This is down from 9.2 mmbpd produced in 2025.

The agency reported that Russia's crude production in June increased by 120,000 bpd compared to May, reaching 8.86 million bpd. This is 900,000 bpd less than the quota established by the OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. Last month, Alexander Novak, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, acknowledged that Russian oil production had fallen since the beginning of the year. He blamed the drop on unplanned maintenance at refineries.

Russia stopped publishing oil production data in April '2023, just over a year since the beginning of the conflict?in Ukraine.

In recent months, the attacks on Ukrainian refineries also contributed to a rise in Russian crude exports. According to industry sources, shipments from Russia's western port ports reached a record in June. They are expected to maintain this level in July.

Sources' data revealed that exports from the Baltic port of Primorsk along with Ust-Luga and the Black Sea port?of Novorossiysk reached almost 3 million bpd in June.

The IEA estimated that Russia's crude oil exports reached 5.8 million bpd in June, an increase of 620,000 bpd over May. Last month, oil products exports fell by 230,000 bpd compared to May.

(source: Reuters)