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As US-Iran talks fail, oil prices soar and the dollar rises. Stocks also fall.
The dollar rose, stocks and bonds fell in Asia as earnings season in the U.S. began later that day. The U.S. action, which is aimed at exerting pressure on Tehran leaves a fragile truce hanging in the air and there's no end to the chokehold on Middle East oil exports in sight - although the mood in trading floors leans towards hope for a solution. Brent crude futures rose 7.3% to $102 per barrel. S&P futures were down by 0.7% in the morning of Asia and European futures dropped 1.3%. U.S. Treasuries, bonds and other assets in Asia fell, with Japan's 10-year benchmark yield reaching a 29-year record of 2.49%. However, the moves were modest, and most assets returned to where they stood before last week's truce. Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee, said that the market has returned to its pre-ceasefire conditions. However, the U.S. is also blocking the remaining Iranian-linked oil flows of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. "The key question that remains is whether the U.S. will renew strikes against Iran. This could raise the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, which could have an even longer lasting impact than the duration of the war." The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors were considering limited strikes against Iran, although there was no immediate report of an attack in Asia Day. Trump acknowledged on Sunday the possible political consequences of the war by saying that oil and gasoline prices may continue to be high until the November midterm elections. DOLLAR HIGHER The euro dropped about 0.3%, to $1.1687. Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar also slipped. MSCI's broadest Asian share index outside Japan dropped 1%. The market does not believe that Trump will strike any more military assets or seize the Strait of Hormuz, said Russel C. Chesler of VanEck's Sydney office. He added that inflation was a growing concern, and would only increase the longer oil prices remained high. He said that even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the oil flow will be "pretty slow" and we would be stuck with high price for a while. Investors are bracing themselves for central banks to raise rates, a dramatic reversal of their pre-war predictions that they would cut rates or take a long pause. Hungarian forint surged to multi-year highs against the dollar and the euro in emerging markets after Hungary's veteran nationalism leader Viktor Orban was ousted from power by a centre-right coalition on Sunday. The election result will likely pave the road for European Union funding in Hungary and Ukraine.
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Iron ore rises after six-day decline
Iron ore futures edged higher on Monday, after a six-session decline to a one month low. By 0258 GMT, the most-traded September iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commmodity Exchange (DCE) had risen?0.4% to $757 yuan ($110.79). The benchmark iron ore for May on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.12% to $103.6 per ton. Steelhome data shows that iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports decreased by 0.16% in a week, according to the latest figures. According to Mysteel, the price of hot metals is'supported' by continued portside destocking. Mysteel data showed that iron ore imports at 47 Chinese ports fell by 536.100 tons due to disruptions in Australian supplies. Imports are expected improve this week, as supply disruptions have eased. Oil prices rose above $100 per barrel on Monday as the U.S. Navy prepared to block ships from reaching Iran through the Strait of Hormuz. This could limit Iranian oil exports after Washington and Tehran failed in their efforts to end the conflict. As shipping costs increase, it is expected that rising oil prices will support iron ore prices. The Brazilian mining company Vale announced on Friday that it will start building a waste rock and tailings processing plant for the state of Minas Gerais in the southeast this year. The plant will be able to produce 2 million tons per year of iron ore and is expected to start operations in the next few months. It's part of a company goal to reuse discarded raw materials. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, have gained?ground on the DCE. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Hot-rolled coils rose 0.15% and stainless steel increased 1.04%. ($1 = 6.8327 yuan) (Reporting by Ruth Chai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Gold drops on stronger dollar and fading Fed rate-cut hope
Gold prices dropped to a one-week-low on Monday, despite a stronger dollar. A surge in oil prices following the failure of U.S. Iran peace talks fueled inflation fears and dampened expectations that Federal Reserve rates would be cut this year. As of 0222 GMT spot gold was down 0.6% to $4,718.98 an ounce after reaching its lowest level since the 7th of April earlier in session. U.S. Gold Futures for June delivery dropped 1% to $4742. Oil prices rose above $100 per barrel as the U.S. Navy prepared to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which could limit Iranian oil shipments after the U.S. failed to reach an agreement to end the conflict with Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded with a stern warning that any military vessel approaching the Strait would be considered as a breach of ceasefire and dealt with harshly and decisively. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that the ceasefire optimism had been shattered by the failure of peace talks. The dollar and oil prices have risen as a result, and gold has fallen back on its heels. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began on 'February 28th,' spot gold has dropped by more than 11%. Waterer stated that "as soon as oil prices return above $100, attention will quickly turn to possible central bank rate increases to curb inflation. This interest rate outlook is what's undermining the gold's performance." The traders now see little chance of a U.S. interest rate cut in this year as the higher energy prices are likely to contribute to broader inflation, and thus limit the scope for monetary ease. Prior to the start of the Middle East war, two Fed rate reductions were expected this year. Gold's appeal is usually boosted by inflation, but high interest rates can make it less attractive. The stronger the dollar, the more expensive gold is for holders of other currencies. Silver spot fell by 2.2%, to $74.23 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.5%, to $2,034.95, and palladium rose 1%, to $1,535.77.
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Aluminum demand surges after US-Iran peace talks collapse
Aluminium prices range-bound Monday as investors weighed renewed concerns about inflation and a global economic recession after the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks against lingering'supply jitters. As of 0222 GMT, the most traded aluminium 'contract' on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.24% to 24,565 Yuan ($3,594.74) a metric tonne. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.2% to $3.505.5 per ton. U.S. president Donald Trump announced 'on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will start blockingading Strait of Hormuz after marathon talks failed to reach an agreement to end the war. This could jeopardize a fragile 2-week ceasefire. Analysts said that the failed peace talks had a negative impact on the market, because they highlighted a prolonged drag on economic growth in general, which could 'dampen appetite for metals used in industrial applications. First Futures analysts said that the impact is more sentimental at the moment, as there has been no further reduction in production in the Gulf. Last month, the prolonged conflict in the Middle East forced some local aluminium smelters?to reduce their output. They also disrupted Gulf supplies by closing the Strait of Hormuz. A stronger dollar also affected the base metals sector, as commodities priced in dollars were less affordable to investors using other currencies. Shanghai copper rose 0.51% due to falling stocks. Nickel was little affected, while lead, tin, and zinc all declined. Copper fell?0.72% among other?LME-metals, while nickel fell 0.21% and lead dropped 0.39%. Tin also declined 2.3% and zinc slipped 0.6%.
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Oil tankers avoid Hormuz in advance of US blockade
Shipping data shows that oil tankers are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz in anticipation of a U.S. blockade on Monday, following the failure of?peace negotiations between the U.S. The President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major step after the marathon talks between Iran and the U.S. failed to produce a peace agreement, putting a fragile ceasefire of two weeks in danger. The U.S. Central Command announced that U.S. Forces would begin to implement the blockade on all maritime traffic?entering or exiting Iranian port at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT), on Monday. In a press release on X, it stated that the ban would "be enforced impartially" against all vessels of any nation?entering and departing Iranian coastal areas and ports including all Iranian port on the Arabian Gulf or Gulf of Oman. It said that U.S. forces will not hinder the freedom of navigation of vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz between non-Iranian port and the Iranian ports. Additionally, additional information will be given to commercial mariners via a formal notification prior to the start of the blockade. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards warned on Sunday against any military vessel that attempted to approach the Strait of Hormuz. They said this would be considered as a breach of the ceasefire, and they will be dealt with harshly. Data from LSEG & Kpler shows that on Sunday, Pakistani flagged tankers Shalamar & Khairpur entered Gulf. Data showed that the Aframax tanker Shalamar will be heading to the United Arab Emirates to load Das crude, while the?Panamax sized Khairpur will be heading to Kuwait to fill refined products. Pakistan National Shipping (which manages Shalamar) did not respond immediately to a comment request outside office hours. Mombasa B (flagged Liberia) is a?very large oil carrier (VLCC), which transited also the strait on Sunday. The data shows that the VLCC Agios Fanourios I flying the flag of Malta, which attempted to cross the strait to enter the Gulf on Sunday in order to load Iraqi crude oil from Basra for Vietnam, turned around and is now anchoring near the Gulf?of Oman. The tanker is heading to Iraq. Eastern Mediterranean Maritime which manages Agios Fanourios 1, and CMB.TECH NV who is the manager of the Mombasa B did not'respond to any requests for comments outside of office hours. Shipping data revealed that despite the deadlock, three supertankers, fully loaded with oil, passed through the Strait of Hormuz Saturday. These vessels appeared to be among the first to leave the Gulf after the ceasefire agreement was reached last week. Reporting by Florence Tan, Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman
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Viva Energy, Australia's largest energy company, faces an extra $17.5 million in costs after regulatory review
After a review by the Australian corporate regulator, Viva Energy has revised its testing of the value of its retail fuel and convenience sites for impairment. This will result in an additional A$25m ($17.55m) in impairment charges on 2025 accounts. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission questioned the fuel retailer’s previous approach to?grouping certain sites into a larger Shell Card cash-generating units, arguing that?individual outlets? should be assessed individually so their recoverable value could?be determined. The regulator said that Viva had adopted the revised method in its financial statements for its year-end?December 2025 and increased the total impairment charges on the convenience?retail networks to?A$558.8 millions. The company didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. The additional charge is only 4.5% of the total write down, but it signals a tightening of regulatory scrutiny on accounting decisions and highlights the pressures that Viva faces in valuing its retail network. ASIC stated that Australian accounting regulations'requires companies to test assets for impairment individually whenever possible and only use broader cash-generating units when standalone valuations are not possible. In its report for 2025,?Viva stated that applying the revised method retrospectively 'wouldn't have materially impacted prior-periods results. The company's shares rose as much as 7.2% on Monday to a new 14-month high, helped by higher oil prices and an increase of 3.8% in the energy sub-index.
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Dollar and oil prices rise after US-Iran Peace Talks Collapse
The dollar and oil both jumped Monday after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement, leaving a fragile ceasefire in the air and no end to Middle East energy exports. S&P futures fell 1% early in the day. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures soared 8% to $100 a barrel. The euro dropped about 0.5%, to $1.1672. Investors were reluctant to place large bets on the Asian stock market as they awaited a sign of a negotiated settlement to a six week conflict that had already driven oil prices 30% higher. The Nikkei in Japan fell by 0.4%. South Korea's KOSPI dropped by 1.4%. And the S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.6%. The marathon talks in Islamabad came to a deadlock and the U.S. announced a blockade of Iranian port, apparently to stop Iran from exporting oil, or charging tolls for transiting the Strait of Hormuz - the choke point of the Persian Gulf. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors were considering limited'strikes against Iran, but there were no immediate reports in early Asian trading of attacks to disrupt a fragile U.S. - Iran ceasefire which has held largely since last week. Saul Kavonic, analyst at MST Marquee, said: "The market has returned to a condition similar to that before the ceasefire. However, the U.S. is also blocking the remaining Iranian-linked flow of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz." The key question remains if the U.S. continues to strike Iran. This could lead to strikes on the energy infrastructure in the region, which would have an impact that would last beyond the duration the war. U.S. Treasury Futures fell in early trade, and gold, which had been a losser as investors cashed out their profits from the long 'pre-war rally', fell by almost 2%. The Australian dollar and the sterling, which are both risk-sensitive currencies, fell by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. The dollar increased 0.3% to 159.78 Japanese yen. Hungarian forint soared in emerging markets after Viktor Orban, Hungary's veteran nationalist leader, lost to a centre-right coalition. Investors are bracing themselves for the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England to raise rates, a sharp reversal of their pre-war predictions of rate cuts, or a long pause. Trump stated on Sunday that oil and gasoline prices may continue to rise through the midterm elections in November, an acknowledgement of possible political consequences from the war.
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Stocks and the dollar fall as US-Iran talks fail
The dollar and oil prices jumped Monday after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement, leaving a fragile ceasefire in the air and no end to the choke on Mideast exports of energy. Early trade showed that stocks were expected to drop in Asia. S&P 500 futures fell around 1.1%. Benchmark Brent crude opened at $102.37 per barrel, up about 7.5%. The euro dropped about 0.5%, to $1.1672. The marathon talks in Islamabad came to a deadlock and U.S. president Donald Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Since the beginning of the war in late February, Iran has closed the chokepoint for 20% daily global energy supplies. This has caused oil prices to rise by over 30% and fueled fears about a spike in inflation which has wreaked havoc on bond markets. U.S. Treasury Futures fell in early trade, and gold, which had been a "loser" as investors cashed out their profits from the long pre-war rally, fell nearly 2%. Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index, said: "This is a complete unwinding of optimism leading into the peace talks and into that play of safe-haven dollar; oil jumpers and selling everything else." On the other hand, we have seen markets exaggerate at times. The market struggles to 'price' this scenario correctly because of the uncertainty and unknowns. Early Monday, moves brought many asset prices near the levels they were trading at in the middle last week before the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. The market has returned to the conditions prior to the ceasefire. However, the U.S. is also blocking the remaining Iranian-linked oil flows of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee in Sydney. The key question that remains is whether the U.S. will renew its strikes against Iran. This could lead to strikes on the energy infrastructure in the region, which would have an impact far beyond the duration and end of the war. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors are now considering limited strikes against Iran. The Australian dollar and the sterling fell 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. The dollar increased 0.3% to 159.78 Japanese yen. Investors have priced in the likelihood that several central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England will be inclined to raise interest rates this year. This is in stark contrast to pre-war expectations of cuts or stable rates. The global equities are still around 2% below their pre-war levels, despite the optimism generated by the belief that the United States would be able to reach a resolution with Iran. Trump acknowledged on Sunday the possible political consequences of the war by saying that oil and gasoline prices may remain high until the midterm elections in November.
Analysts say that the shock of the Iran war will cause a market deficit by 2026.
Analysts say that the sharp drop in global oil production caused by the Iran War is set to turn the oil market this year into a'supply deficit. This will be a dramatic change from previous forecasts of a 'comfortable surplus. The conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, has effectively stalled oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This passageway accounts for a fifth of all global oil consumption. Attacks on energy infrastructure and production shutdowns have also severely reduced output. According to eight analysts surveyed by, the oil market will be oversupplied by 750,000 barrels a day this year. In a similar poll conducted in September, a 1,63 million bpd excess was predicted for 2026. This was largely due to OPEC+ unwinding some of their output cuts and the strong production by other producers such as the U.S. Brazil and Guyana. International Energy Agency estimated that 'the war' had reduced oil supply by 11 million bpd at the end of march, whereas ANZ Bank estimated that 9 million bpd had been removed from crude supply in a note dated April 9. According to the IEA, global oil supply in January was approximately 106.6 million bpd. Analysts in the poll said that these immediate shocks will translate into a production loss of 2.13 million bpd on average over the course of the year. Analysts expect the market will see its biggest deficit in the second quarter - around 3 million BPD - before tipping back into a surplus in the fourth.
Analysts warn that the projected deficits may increase depending on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
The flow of goods through the Strait remains constrained. Traders have reported no signs that a sustained return to shipments has occurred since Tuesday's ceasefire announcement.
Vikas Dwivedi is the global energy strategist for Macquarie Group. He estimates that 136 million barrels (of crude oil and other products) are still stuck in the Gulf as a result of the conflict. It will take some time to clear the backlog. Even though the ceasefire has been declared, many?shippers are still facing challenges. There have been reports that Iran plans to charge ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz fees. Dwivedi stated that "issues include insurance, and the risk of transacting with Iran (by paying tolls) if sanctions are violated."
RESTORING PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED BUMPY The war-related supply disruptions prompted the biggest annual price forecast rise in poll records last month. Analysts raised their 2026 Brent forecasts to $82.85 per barrel by about 30%. Oil prices have risen by around 50% due to the war.
It will take several months to restore oil production levels prior to the conflict, depending on damage done at oilfields by attacks and shutdowns and how easily shipping can flow through Hormuz.
Analysts at ANZ say that even under a 'constructive security scenario', output will only partially recover in the short term. Around 2 to 3 million bpd could return in the first months as export shipments resume. Another 2 to 3.5 millions bpd may be returned to the market in the second quarter.
They said that despite the fact that recovery will not be easy, it is likely to be hampered by operational friction, damaged infrastructure, and export bottlenecks.
ANZ also said that there is a possibility of around 1 to 2 million bpd capacity being permanently lost or restricted even after the war. This would lead to a tighter and more volatile market.
(source: Reuters)