Latest News

The chief economist of the ECB warns that inflation in the Eurozone could rise due to a prolonged Iran war

The chief economist of the ECB warns that inflation in the Eurozone could rise due to a prolonged Iran war
The chief economist of the ECB warns that inflation in the Eurozone could rise due to a prolonged Iran war

In an interview published on Tuesday, Philip 'Lane, Chief Economist at the European Central Bank (ECB), said that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could lead to a significant spike in inflation in the euro zone and reduce economic growth.

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran intensified on Monday with no end in site as Israel attacked Lebanon, and Iran continued its attacks on Gulf States, driving up oil prices over 10%.

Lane explained that "directly, an increase in energy prices puts upward pressures on inflation in the short-term and would be negative for economic activity."

He said that "the breadth and length of the conflict will determine the scale of impact and implications?for the medium-term inflation," adding that the ECB would monitor the situation.

Lane explained that previous sensitivity analyses by the ECB had shown that a war of this kind would result in a?substantial spike? in energy-driven prices and a?sharp fall? in output if energy supplies were to continue to drop out of the area.

Separate analysis from the ECB in December suggests that a permanent spike in oil prices of this magnitude would increase?inflation to 0.5 percentage points and reduce growth by 0.1 percent.

The euro zone inflation rate is currently 1.7%. This is below the bank's 2% goal. A small increase in prices?is unlikely?to trigger policy action.

The ECB tends to ignore energy-induced 'volatility' in prices, as long as the fluctuations don't impact on longer-term expectations or seep through into underlying inflation via a second-round effect.

Market-based 'longer-term expectations of inflation are not much different at this time. And markets expect the ECB to maintain its 2% deposit rate throughout the year. Gursimran K. Kaur and Balazs Koranyi report from Bengaluru, and Tom Hogue and Raju G. Gopalakrishnan edit the story.

(source: Reuters)