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IMF lowers Saudi Arabia's growth forecast for 2025, citing a slower oil recovery as a drag in the region

IMF lowers Saudi Arabia's growth forecast for 2025, citing a slower oil recovery as a drag in the region

The International Monetary Fund lowered on Tuesday its GDP growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia and the region as a whole, citing headwinds such as a gradual return to oil production.

The lowest crude oil prices since the COVID-19 epidemic are putting pressure on oil-dependent governments. Officials are preparing policies to deal with the drop in revenues, such as increasing debt or reducing expenditure.

IMF's World Economic Outlook reduced the IMF's forecast for Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth to 3% in 2025, compared with a January estimate that predicted a 3.3% rise. IMF has also reduced its projection of growth in 2026 to 3.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from the January estimate.

The growth forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia region has been lowered from 3.6% to 3%.

The report stated that "compared with January's projection, the projection has been revised downward. This reflects a more gradual return to oil production, ongoing spillovers of conflicts, and slower than expected progress on structural reforms."

A poll conducted in October predicted a 4.4% growth rate for Saudi Arabia, which is the top oil exporter in the world and a G20 member.

Market volatility, lower prices and rising global risks are now threatening to impede the recovery of the economy, despite the Kingdom's efforts to diversify beyond oil.

Economists claim that despite the volatility of oil markets, Gulf oil exporters remain relatively protected from it due to their higher reserves, reduced debt, and ongoing diversification initiatives.

S&P upgraded Saudi Arabia's sovereign credit rating from 'A-' to 'A+-' in March. They cited stronger institutions, and a solid growth in non-oil sectors under Vision 2030. However, they warned that lower oil revenues could lead to increased fiscal deficits, and delays or reductions in major infrastructure project. Reporting by Manya SAINI in Dubai Editing Bernadette BAUME

(source: Reuters)