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Why one Eastern European nation was slow to give up its Russian oil addiction: Vladimirov

Why one Eastern European nation was slow to give up its Russian oil addiction: Vladimirov

By Martin Vladimirov

Czechia, on April 7, has the infrastructure, reserves and access to other suppliers that it needs to stop importing Russian oil. Three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine on a large scale, the Czech Republic has continued to delay a strategic shift despite viable alternatives. According to a Center for the Study of Democracy analysis, Czechia imported Russian crude oil worth 1.5 billion euros in 2024. The volume was down 30% compared to 2023. However, this wasn't due to a proactive strategy to phase out Russian crude. It was mainly the result of 3 major disruptions in the Druzhba Pipeline. After the completion of the Trans-Alpine pipeline expansion in 2024, Czechia should have been able to replace Russian crude. As of February, however, neither the state-owned MERO CR nor the dominant refiner Orlen Unipetrol were able to fully exploit this new resource. In the end, each month more than 100 millions of euros were sent to the Kremlin.

This is not a technical problem. MERO CR had confirmed, even before the final certification of TAL-plus was granted, that the spare capacity in pipelines would be sufficient to meet Czechia’s entire annual crude oil demand.

The country's strategic reserve of 3.6 millions tonnes could also cover almost half its annual consumption. The volume of Russian oil imported in 2024's final quarter increased by 30% compared to the previous year, and reached 970,000 tonnes. This was the highest quarterly level since the European Union oil embargo came into effect in 2022. In 2025, Czechia purchased an additional 220,000 tons of Russian crude. Orlen Unipetrol claims that Rosneft's long-term contract obligations, which expire in mid-2025 prevented an immediate withdrawal from Russian crude. It is not certain that this is the case. Take-or-pay provisions - which are often used as a justification – are uncommon in the global oil market, where flexibility of supply is the norm. Orlen appears to be primarily motivated by financial concerns. Russian crude, on average, was 20% cheaper than Azeri oil in 2023-2024. Retail fuel prices were stable, with average gasoline and diesel costs of 1,500 euros and 1,360 euro per tonne respectively. Orlen Unipetrol, which relied heavily on Russian crude oil during its peak years, was able to take advantage of the cost difference and report EBITDA in excess of 600 million euros per year.

The discount on Russian crude could increase in the future, as tariffs recently implemented by the U.S. government may dampen demand for oil globally, forcing Russia lower its prices.

REPERCUSSIONS

This passive attitude has had important geopolitical consequences. Since the beginning of the war, Czechia has contributed almost 3 billion euros to the Russian government in the form of tax revenue. Czechia spent 8.4 billion euro on Russian gas and oil since February 2022. This is more than six-times the amount of money it gave to Ukraine in aid.

Czechia also continues to import refined petroleum products from Slovakia, Hungary and other EU-exempt countries, where refineries are processing Russian crude oil. This exemption is extended until June 2025. Slovakia exported 710,000 tons of fuel worth 520 millions euros to Czechia in 2024 despite alternatives being available. Germany, for example, only charges a 6-7% higher price than Slovak suppliers on gasoline and diesel.

Czechia also follows a similar pattern in its natural gas imports. Czechia's Russian gas purchases increased by almost 400% in 2024 in anticipation of Ukraine terminating its Russian transit in January 2025. Imports of Russian gas in the last quarter of 2024 were 62% more than average.

The Czech government can unilaterally ban Russian crude imports. It can also stop purchases of fuels refined using Russian oil in Slovakia or Hungary. And it can make full use both of the TAL pipe and its domestic reserves. Bulgaria has shown that a complete phase-out of Russian oil is possible. Sofia ended its exemption early in 2024 by invoking the force majeure clause, and cut off Russian crude over night. The result was neither an increase in fuel prices nor a threat to the security of oil supplies, despite Bulgaria relying on Russian crude for 90% of its crude imports.

Czech Government Officials on April 17,

The country is now fully independent from Russian oil after the completion of the capacity upgrades to the TAL pipeline. Czechia appears to be able to align its actions with European imperatives for energy security without suffering severe economic consequences. If the current halt of Russian oil imports doesn't hold, then it will struggle justifying why it has not done so.

(source: Reuters)