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United States forecaster sees 59% opportunity of weak, short La Nina forming by January

There is a 59% possibility of La Nina emerging in the NovemberJanuary period, a U.S. federal government forecaster stated on Thursday, including that the ultimate start of La Nina conditions would be weak and shortlived.

WHY IT is essential

La Nina, a climatic phenomenon defined by cooler-than-average ocean temperature levels in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is connected with both floods and droughts impacting international agriculture, and higher Caribbean hurricane activity.

CONTEXT

Weak La Nina conditions would be less most likely to lead to conventional winter effects, though foreseeable signals might still influence the projection assistance, the National Weather Service's Environment Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly projection.

ENSO-neutral, a cycle between El Nino and La Nina weather condition patterns, continued in November, the CPC said, including that there is a 61% chance of a transition to neutral conditions by March-May next year again.

El Nino is a natural warming of eastern and main Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, while La Nina is characterized by colder temperature levels in the equatorial Pacific area.

Earlier today, Japan's weather bureau said that attributes of the La Nina phenomena are emerging as the winter season advances, however there are no signs of La Nina or El Nino up until now.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday stated there is more than a 50% chance of La Niña developing in the next three months, however if it does it will be fairly weak and short-term.

SECRET PRICES ESTIMATE

This year the shift to La Nina has been longer than initially thought of, as initial thinking was for it to be back in late summer season or early autumn, stated Tyler Roys, Elder Meteorologist, Lead European Forecaster at AccuWeather, including that it is likewise anticipated to be brief lived.

Major crop areas of South Africa, Argentina, Brazil and wheat in Australia typically benefit from a wetter weather pattern that leads near to above the historic average rainfall, Roys included.

(source: Reuters)