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Prices of oil fall amid rising hopes for a de-escalation of the US-Iran War
Oil prices dropped on Friday, as traders grew more confident that a renewed conflict between the U.S.A. and Iran is less likely. Brent crude futures fell $2.08 or 2.18% to $92.95 per barrel at 11:37 CST . Brent closed the previous session 2.84% down. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $89.93 per barrel, down $3.11 or 3.34% after a loss of 3.1% on Thursday. Phil Flynn is a senior analyst with Price Futures Group. He said that the market does not see an escalation of tensions between the parties. Even though we haven't reached a deal, the market seems to be de-escalating. Petroleum Development Oman confirmed that operations at Mina al Fahal were not affected after three sources reported that oil loading was suspended due to an explosion near the port's mooring berths. Oman exports between 800,000 and 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day from its terminal. Brent was up 1.25 % and WTI by around 3.1%. Contracts rose earlier this week as fighting flared up in the Middle East, while U.S. and Iran war peace talks continued to drag on, while the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted, through which a fifth of world oil flows. Commerzbank analysts stated on Friday that "as hopes for a deal between the U.S.A. and Iran have been dashed yet again, the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gases rose this week." Commerzbank said that Brent's gains were capped due to oil inventories remaining longer than expected, rerouted imports, and a falling demand. Hezbollah's leader Naim Qassem rejected a U.S. mediated agreement between Israel and Lebanon to stop the fighting on Thursday. Iran has demanded a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese government in Lebanon as a precondition for any deal with Washington. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he thought progress was being made in the relationship between Israel and Lebanon. He also stated on Thursday that Lebanon deserved peace. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said in a?"note" that "any optimism is heavily clouded due to a tangled net of headlines and anti-headlines." Haitham al Ghais, the Secretary General of OPEC, said that despite the Middle East conflict, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil demand forecast for this year is 1.2 million barrels of oil per day. According to shipping data the U.S. naval blockade has largely been responsible for the decline in Iranian oil exports. However, weak demand from China has also contributed to the lower prices. Reporting by Erwin Seba, Robert Harvey, and Ahmad Ghaddar, in London; Florence Tan, and Sam Li, in Singapore. Editing by Sonali, Kim Coghill and Elaine Hardcastle.
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Sources: Cargill is in talks with Macquarie to sell its metals unit.
Five sources familiar with the matter have confirmed that 'Cargill' is in discussions to sell its metals division to Macquarie Group, as a global trading house wants to concentrate on its core operations of food and agriculture. The five sources all spoke under condition of anonymity as the sale had not yet been announced. They were also not authorized to speak to media. They didn't disclose any further details about the discussions, which may not result in a deal. Cargill did not respond to requests for comments via phone and email. Macquarie has declined to comment. Cargill's metals unit in Singapore trades between 60 and 70 million metric tonnes of iron ore each year, with 130 employees. The spin-off could occur at a time of uncertain outlook for iron ore due to the falling demand in China, the world's largest consumer. In addition, the state buyer China Mineral Resources Group reduces the volatility that traders can profit from. Cargill stopped physical steel trading in China by 2024, as the 'demand for the material slowed down in the top consumer and producer of the material in China due to the long-term slowdown in the property sector. In the same year,?the company streamlined its operations from five to three:?Food and Agriculture?,?Trading? and a specialized Portfolio. In a memo sent to employees in 2024, Brian Sikes, the chief executive officer of?Cargill, said: "At heart, we are a food and agriculture company." This would not be the first time Cargill has sold to Macquarie. Cargill sold the petroleum business in 2017, which included crude oil and oil products to an 'Australian investment bank.
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A study warns that biodiversity loss may trigger a wave of debt crises
Financial markets underestimate the economic risks associated with biodiversity loss. This could expose countries to debt crises and higher borrowing costs. The study, ?led ?by economists from the Universities of Sussex, Sheffield and Heriot-Watt, presented what they described as the world's first biodiversity-adjusted sovereign credit ratings model. The report said that existing rating frameworks do not take into account environmental degradation and leave $83 trillion worth of global assets susceptible to mispricing. Researchers estimated that a partial collapse in key ecosystems, such as marine fisheries, tropical forests, and wild pollinators, could result in an increase of $162 billion annually for global sovereign debt interest. Matthew Agarwala, from the University of Sussex, said that financial markets are blind to nature-related risks. As biodiversity loss undermines economies, it becomes more difficult for countries to service debt. The global economy is supported by ecosystem services such as crop pollination, and the production of seafood. These ecosystems could be disrupted in part, reducing global GDP by around $2 trillion per annum. Creditworthiness of vulnerable nations could suffer severe consequences. India's sovereign credit rating could be affected by four notches in such a scenario. China's could also drop more than five points on a scale of 20. Lower credit ratings force governments to pay higher interest rates on debt. This could result in India paying $50 billion and China $70 billion more annually. Overlooked Risks The study concluded that sovereign downgrades can have a ripple effect on the domestic economy, impacting businesses, financial institutions, and pension funds. Pati Klusak, from Edinburgh Business School, said that the findings echo previous financial crises. She said that the 2008 global financial crises showed what happens when emerging threats are ignored by markets. We risk making the same mistake again if we exclude ecological risks from credit assessment. According to the research, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Malaysia may also face ratings downgrades ranging from four to six notches. In 23 countries, with a combined population of 5.5 billion, the biodiversity-related downgrades may push some closer to sovereign default. The debt servicing costs represent nearly three-quarters the global?annual aid for overseas development and a significant portion of the UN Global Biodiversity Framework?s target of mobilizing $200 billion per year across 196 nations. The authors called on regulators, central bankers and rating agencies, to incorporate nature-related risk into financial models. They said that the cost of?protecting biodiversity' is much lower than its economic consequences. Moritz Kraemer is a former sovereign analyst for S&P Global, who was involved in the study. He said that rating agencies were particularly failing. Kraemer stated that by the time these bonds reach maturity in 30 or 50 years, they may be 3-4 notch lower. "That's a problem."
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Energy secretary: Companies will add 40 million barrels to US SPR when the Iran war ends.
After the war in Iran, companies that have borrowed oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will receive an 'extra 40 mln barrels - of crude as premiums. Fuel prices have risen since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began in early February. Wright, however, said that he was not concerned about low stock levels at?the SPR. Wright told Fox Business's "Varney & Company," "I am not concerned because we are not'selling' any barrels of crude oil. We're supplying oil 'to the market 'in the short-term when it is needed, and we trade those barrels." "For every barrel we use, we get 1.25 barrels next year." He said that we would add 40 million barrels after the conflict, and at no cost to taxpayers, to the SPR. The DOE is lending 133 million barrels from the SPR (which is held in underground caverns located in Texas and Louisiana) to companies who will pay back in crude oil, with premiums up to 24 percent. The Department of Energy says the system will help stabilize markets without costing U.S. tax payers. (Reporting and editing by David Ljunggren, Andrea Ricci and Katharine Jackson)
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A Russian billionaire sanctioned by the US says that high interest rates are a 'trap' in the economy
The central bank's strict monetary policy was criticized by some of Russia's wealthiest businessmen on Friday. One said that it had created "a trap" for the Russian economy. This is the most public criticism of the financial authorities?since a?rate increase in 2024. The economic growth will slow down to 0.4% this year from 4.9% last year due to high rates, an overvalued ruble, and Western sanctions. Government measures are unlikely to have a significant impact on growth. Since 2022, most of Russia's billionaires supported President Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine despite Western sanctions that prevented them from accessing their luxury yachts and properties in Europe and North America. The war is now in its fifth year and there's no end in sight. Profits are down, taxes are up, access to Western markets is still blocked, and private assets have been nationalized. Roman Trotsenko is a billionaire who owns companies in the transport, fertilizer, and real estate industries. He compared the central bank’s monetary policies to a “Volcker shock,” referring to aggressive rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker from 1979 to 1982. He told a group of businessmen, government officials and bankers at the largest economic conference in Russia, held by Sberbank. "This was an?big experiment. No one else has done it." The key interest rate in Russia is 14.5%. It is down from 22% but still considered too high by businesses, even though inflation has dropped to 5.6%, from 10%. In his address to the main plenary of the conference, Putin expressed that he understood the "deep sorrow" and "cries of concern" of businessmen over high borrowing costs. However, he said the economic foundations of Russia were solid. "ALREADY A Miracle" Trotsenko claimed that economic history books will describe the wartime policy of the rate as "Zabotkin’s trap into which Russia fell mistakenly," referring the First Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zabotkin who is the architect of the current policy. Zabotkin applauded Trotsenko’s speech, but told reporters later that the central banks was "fully aware" of Russian business's woes. Dmitry Mazepin of Uralchem, the owner of the fertiliser manufacturer, compared the actions taken by the central bank to cool the economy with hostile Western powers. What is the external challenge? They want to slow down our progress, but they also, as the President said, 'want to inflict strategic defeat. What's going on internally? What does the central bank mean when they say "it wants to cool the economy?" Mazepin spoke. According to Forbes, Russia's richest person, Alexei Mordashov is the owner of Severstal. He said that domestic steel demand had dropped by 30% over the past three years, which led the company to cut 24% of its portfolio and its cash flow was negative. "I'm sure that almost everyone in this room has seriously re-evaluated their investment program." With such volatility and instability, it is obvious that we will see a further decline in investment and a?further fall in GDP." Russian billionaires are usually'refrained from making public statements on the conflict in Ukraine. Many Russian billionaires have ceded their control over their companies in writing and are now fighting in courts for the lifting Western sanctions. German Gref, CEO at Sberbank who wrote Putin's economic program in the early 2000s which led to spectacular rates of growth for several years, said after the panel, that Russia's meagre rate of growth under current conditions is "already an miracle". (Additional reporting and editing by Darya Corsunskaya, Elena Fabrichnaya)
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How Trump's ceasefires have failed to end Middle East violence
Residents of Gaza and south Lebanon, as well as northern Israel and Kuwait, were all targeted this week, despite a ceasefire allegedly in place in their respective regions, arranged by the United States. Israeli forces are still active in Gaza and Lebanon. Hezbollah's rockets struck northern Israel and Iranian attacks targeted Kuwait's airport. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, commented on Wednesday about the continued violence in the Middle East. He said that ceasefires involved "shooting?in a moderate manner", rather than an end to all fighting. Three truces that his administration has negotiated are meant to stop the "warfare". While the major fighting has decreased, people are still dying and munitions continue to fall. Here's how the ceasefire -- and ongoing combat -- is playing out. WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE CEASEFIRE? On October 10, 2025 the United States brokered an agreement between Israel and Hamas that ended major warfare. The ceasefire agreement included a halt in all fighting, Hamas freeing all of its remaining hostages, Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal phased, increased aid, and the opening a border crossing to Egypt. Trump's plan for a ceasefire included agreements on Hamas disarmament, a new Gaza Government without the group’s involvement, reconstruction in Gaza, and a complete Israeli withdrawal. Despite the fact that all hostages have been released, aid to Gaza hasn't increased significantly. Hamas is not willing to disarm. Israel has increased its control over the territory and hasn't begun reconstruction. Israeli airstrikes on Gaza continue, with more than 900 Palestinians killed since the ceasefire, including nine Thursday. Four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza by sporadic Palestinian militant attacks. Why is there still violence in Lebanon? A ceasefire was only partially implemented in 2024 after Israel and Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah fought. Both sides accused the other of violating it. In March, after the war against Iran broke out, open warfare resumed. Hezbollah fired into Israel while Israeli forces seized large areas of southern Lebanon. They also pounded other areas with airstrikes. Trump announced on April 16, after rare contact between the Israeli and Lebanese government representatives, a 10-day ceasefire. Israel mostly avoided striking Beirut, although intense fighting continued in southern Lebanon. According to Lebanese officials, who do not differentiate between combatants and civilians, Israeli strikes since April 16 have killed hundreds. The total death toll is now more than 3,500. Israel claims that 26 soldiers and 4 civilians were killed by Hezbollah in attacks since March. Iran wants to include a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon as part of any agreement to end the war it has with the United States, Israel and to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Trump announced on Wednesday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to implement an entirely new ceasefire contingent upon Hezbollah's departure from southern areas. Israel claims it can continue military operations in spite of the ceasefire, and Hezbollah rejects the truce. Fighting continues. Will the US and Iran cement their ceasefire? On February 28, Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, aiming to destroy its nuclear and missile programs. Both countries expressed the hope that the theocratic regime would be overthrown. This came after a 12-day conflict last year, in which Israel and the United States struck many Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders. The?Strait of Hormuz has been closed off despite the deaths of many senior Iranian figures. This has impacted the global economy and slowed down Gulf energy exports. Early April, the United States announced that it had reached a ceasefire agreement with Iran. Talks would follow to discuss a "lasting end to hostilities", a "reopening" of Hormuz and an end to a U.S. port blockade. There has not been a full agreement reached despite the repeated rounds of indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan or Qatar. Negotiations on the nuclear issue would be put off to a later date if a deal is reached. Iran has also attacked Gulf States including Kuwait in the past week. Why haven't the stopfires been effective? The first phase of all three agreements has failed to produce a lasting ceasefire. The combatants in each case have refused to make the painful concessions necessary to progress beyond the first phase transitional ceasefires. Sometimes, they have turned to military action in order to achieve goals that they had to?set aside when the ceasefires were agreed upon or to test boundaries of the agreements. Urban Coningham is a research fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute. He said that when there's not much movement or a clear political horizon it's difficult to maintain a ceasefire because the parties have no incentive to keep it up if there are no changes. He said that the diminishing influence and assertiveness by regional powers, as well as the United Nations, have made it more difficult to maintain long-term agreements. (Compiled by Angus McDowall, edited by Cynthia Osterman).
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What is the secret to economic success? Stephen Jen: A good baseball team
What do the four most important tech economies in the world - the U.S.A., Taiwan Japan and South Korea have in common? They are baseball fans. It may not be a mere coincidence. This raises questions about the prospects for two other baseball-loving countries: Venezuela and Cuba. In the U.S., baseball was created in the mid-19th century. It is a combination of rounders and cricket. Baseball is popular among those who have had a long-term relationship with America, just as British sports are in Commonwealth countries. Baseball became popular in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea after World War II, when the U.S. maintained a?heavy military presence. Today, these three economies together with the U.S. represent about 90% of the $40 trillion global tech market capital. The U.S. accounts for most of it, but the three other economies still make up almost 13%. This could not be a mere coincidence. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan all benefitted from the focus they placed on education during the post-war period, which helped to create highly numerate population, as well their lack of natural resource, which forced them to develop industries geared towards export. Their close relationship with America has also arguably played a crucial role. It was not just the U.S. Military that had an influence on this part of Asia in the decades after World War Two. American companies also played a role. This became especially noticeable in the technology sector over time. Since years, there have been many interactions between companies in Silicon Valley and entities in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan (both universities and companies). Over 20% of the 10,000,000 tech workers in the U.S., are Asian. Many Asian students also attend school in the U.S. Since the 1970s, research and ideas have been exchanged. China complicates this thesis, as you can imagine. China is a technology giant but it's not a baseball nation. Its rise was due to state-directed policies, its size, and access the U.S. led global economic system. Not because of historical ties with America. This distinction could prove to be the key. Baseball is not the reason for tech success but rather a sign of American influence. This helps to explain why China’s relationship with Silicon Valley differs from that of other Asian tech giants. On Deck? This is an interesting question. What about Venezuela and Cuba, two other baseball loving nations? These two nations are not economic giants. Their affinity for baseball points to their historic ties with the U.S. It is a question of whether or not these old links can be transformed into renewed economic, institution, and strategic alignment. Venezuela became one of the largest oil producers in the world after it was discovered early in the 20th century. The mid-20th century saw U.S. oil companies invest heavily in Venezuelan oil exploration and extraction, which in turn supplied an enormous amount of crude oil to America. In this period, American oil workers also helped popularize the game of baseball in Venezuela. It quickly became a national sport. The relationship between the United States and Venezuela deteriorated sharply after the rise in inequality and the fall of energy prices in the late 1990s helped to pave the path for Hugo Chavez’s socialist movement. Baseball remained, even though most U.S. companies had left. Some may remember that, weeks after the U.S. arrested and captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, in January, Venezuela beat the U.S. baseball team in the World Baseball Classic Final, which was highlighted by U.S. president Donald Trump in a recent press conference. Baseball is not mentioned to suggest that it leads to tech success. Rather, I want to emphasize the long-standing relationship between Venezuela and the U.S. It is not difficult to imagine a similar relationship being rekindled. Before Chavez, Venezuela exported half its oil production to the U.S. A prolonged period of underinvestment has reduced its production to 1.0 million barrels per day. Venezuela's historic ties to the U.S., as well as its vast energy reserves could make it a natural ally again. This is not so unlikely, given the warming relationship between Washington DC and the current Caracas government. Joining the Team Finally, there's Cuba. Cubans and Americans who visited the island in the late 1800s taught them how to play baseball. The sport took off fast, and today more than 400 Cubans play in the U.S. Major Leagues. This affinity is also a reflection of a long-standing relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. Following the Spanish-American War in 1898, Cuba came under U.S. protection until 1902 when it became independent, although the U.S. maintained the right to intervene in Cuban matters until 1934. The proximity of the two countries, as well as their shared history, has helped to strengthen relations between them. Over the years, however, corruption and inequality culminated with Fidel Castro, who overthrew Batista's government in 1959. This aligned Cuba with the USSR in the Cold War. Cuba, unlike Venezuela with its oil wealth, does not have a clear path to progress. The current economic situation of Venezuela is dire. It has high inflation, blackouts, and other shortages. This is partly due to the fact that it no longer receives low-cost energy from Caracas. Cuba's proximity to the U.S., which was a major concern during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, makes it in the best interest of the largest economy in the world to support positive changes. The history of the U.S. suggests that, given today's complex geopolitical background, it is best to focus on countries with the ability to call balls and strikes. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. (Writing and editing by Anna Szymanski, Marguerita Choy and Stephen Jen)
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Siam Cement, Thailand's Siam Cement division, sells Chandra Asri shares for $763 million
Thailand's Siam Cement announced on Friday that its unit sold a nearly 15% stake in Indonesian conglomerate Chandra Asri Pacific at the beginning of June for $24.9 billion ($763.10 millions). According to LSEG, SCG Chemicals is the second largest shareholder of Chandra Asri, behind Indonesian business magnate Prajogo Pangestu's Barito -Pacific. Chandra Asri didn't immediately respond to a comment request. The MSCI removed the Indonesian firm from its domestic global standard index in May, causing it to lose over 80% of their value. Stock market in the country has also suffered, as investors have lost confidence due to fiscal concerns, governance of equity markets, central bank autonomy risks and changing commodity export policies. The benchmark has lost 35% annually in the last year. Siam 'Cement' said that the sale was part of its strategy to reduce debt and reallocate funds to growth projects, such as the Long Son Petrochemicals Ethane Feedstock Enhancement Project in Vietnam. The?company initially acquired a %30 stake in Chandra Asri in late 2011 for 3.76 trillion Rupiah. ($1 = 32.6300 baht) (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk and Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
Experts warn that a Trump return could reignite US-Vietnam tensions.
Analysts warn that Vietnam's large surplus in trade with the United States could reignite tensions if Donald Trump were to win a second term as president. This is because exports of solar cells and other sensitive electrical products are booming. The Super Tuesday results confirmed that the November U.S. election will pit incumbent Joe Biden up against Donald Trump, who was more lenient towards trade imbalances in his first term as president than Biden.
Data from the United States show that the Southeast Asian manufacturing hub had a trade surplus of $104 billion with Washington last year. This was only lower than China, Europe and Mexico.
BMI, an independent research company and part of Fitch Ratings Group, said that Vietnam was the country most vulnerable to U.S. protectionism.
The report noted that, among the countries without free trade agreements with Washington that have not signed with Washington yet, Vietnam is the one most dependent on the export of electrical equipment as well as other "goods" that would be more likely to face tariffs if a second Trump Administration were to take office.
Last year, electronic products, including computers and smartphones, made up 36% of Vietnam’s $114 billion worth of exports to America.
Nearly $5 billion of this total, up from $3.2 million a year ago, was spent on solar panels. Washington closely monitors the risks associated with transshipment from China, and using raw materials from Xinjiang which are both sanctioned.
China denies all allegations of abuses against ethnic Uyghurs.
According to a Hanoi-based Western Diplomat, Vietnam's trade surplus will be the greatest risk in its relationship with Washington once Trump is back in office.
He did not expect any changes to the U.S. support for Vietnam's semiconductors sector, which Biden had pushed in its "friendshoring policy" to reduce company exposure to China risk.
The government of Vietnam did not respond to a question about the issue.
A second Trump term could also bring benefits. One representative of a Vietnamese firm said that Trump's hard stance against China outweighed the risks associated with trade during his presidency. He declined to be named because he wasn't authorised to speak to media.
After Trump's tariff increases on Chinese products, Vietnam is one of the major beneficiaries of businesses moving some activities outside of China.
This trend is likely to continue under Trump. Florian Feyerabend, a representative of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Vietnam, a German think tank, confirmed this.
He added that "U.S. Pressure on the Foreign and Security Policy Front will likely Increase", noting that a Trump presidency could bring about a return of transactional policies, and greater pressure on Hanoi in order to downgrade its strong relations with China and Russia. (Reporting and editing by Nick Macfie; Additional reporting by Phuong nguyen, Francesco Guarascio).
(source: Reuters)