30 years of climate talk: Progress, pitfalls, and a planet at risk

The data on global warming shows a sobering picture as leaders gather in Brazil for the U.N. Climate Summit this month. Three decades have passed since the first annual climate conference.

Scientists warn that global temperatures will soon exceed thresholds that could cause catastrophic damage to our planet. Despite years and years of summits and negotiations, greenhouse gas emission has risen by a third. The conventions have had some positive effects, but they are not enough to guarantee the future of life on Earth, said Juan Carlos Monterrey. He is Panama's Special Representative for Climate Change, and he is leading an effort to streamline major environmental agreement.

Looking Beyond the Data

This grim assessment prompts a fundamental questions ahead of the summit taking place in Belem (Brazil) from Nov. 10-21: Has global climate diplomacy failed? Or, have these gatherings been successful in ways that raw numbers cannot reveal?

Simon Stiell is the U.N. The UNFCCC Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) says that the annual meetings help. "But it is clear that much more needs to be done, and faster, because climate disasters are hitting every country."

Since 1995, global greenhouse gas emissions are up 34%. Scientists say that while this is a lower rate of growth than the 64% increase in the previous three decades, the trajectory still does not support climate stability.

We still have time for this problem to be solved. If we do what we promised, we can still win this battle. John Kerry, the U.S. Climate Envoy for Democratic President Joe Biden said: "We just have to get moving and kick ourselves in our rear ends." In an October report, the World Resources Institute, which is a climate advocacy and research group, stated that current government targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 are not enough to prevent global temperatures rising over 1.5C above preindustrial levels. This was the threshold set by world governments in a landmark climate agreement signed in Paris in 2015.

The Paris Agreement's benchmark of 30-year rolling average is still below this level. However, temperatures in the world have risen above the 1.5C mark some years. 2023 and 2024 are among the hottest years on record.

In an interview, James Fletcher said, "There will be a overshoot which is very regrettable." He was the former energy minister of St. Lucia and climate envoy to the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).

He said that anything above 1.5 degrees Celsius would be disastrous for small island states.

Stiell said that if the COP was not in place, the world would have experienced a 5C rise, rather than the projected 3C.

The consumption of fossil fuels, which is the main source of global warming emissions, continues to be high. This is due primarily to economic growth, but also, and more recently, energy requirements of data centres that power artificial intelligence.

According to the International Energy Agency, coal demand will remain at record levels through 2027 due to rising demand from China, India and developing countries. The International Energy Agency reports that solar and wind power have increased, electric vehicle sales are soaring globally and overall energy efficiency has improved.

According to IEA figures, global investment in clean energy surpassed $1 trillion in fossil fuels last year.

Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s former climate envoy who has attended every COP summit and is a veteran, said: "We couldn't have imagined that these technological advancements and the price drop for EVs or renewables would happen 10 years ago."

Renewables and EVs have largely replaced fossil fuels, but not the growing demand for energy. In the United States, Donald Trump, who called climate change "the world's biggest con job", has cut subsidies for solar and wind power, and electric vehicles. He has also added permits to renewable projects, and opened up more land to drilling and mines.

Taylor Rogers said that President Trump would not put our nation's national security and economic well-being at risk to pursue vague climate targets that kill other countries.

SHORTCOMINGS AND SUCCESSES

Despite the setbacks that the U.S. has suffered, the Paris Climate Agreement - the most important achievement of the COP Process - has survived, even after Trump's withdrawal.

This means that countries are theoretically committed to preventing climate change at its worst.

The COP's consensus-based negotiations, which requires nearly 200 countries to make a unanimous decision, have come under criticism.

Monterrey said that the Panama climate envoy was "drowning" in paperwork.

We need a systematic reform.

Christiana Figueres was the U.N.'s lead climate official at the Paris talks. She said that the COPs might consider adopting a voting system similar to the International Monetary Fund.

Figueres said that the politics of energy is becoming less important, as more and more countries adopt clean technologies.

The government is not the driving force behind the change. The private sector, industry and technology development are the main drivers of change.

According to the IEA, she pointed out that China alone accounts for a third of the global investment in clean energies, including solar, wind, battery and electric vehicle industries.

CATALYST OR A CULPRIT

Some COP veterans claim that the current process is best to ensure that all countries are represented at the table in order to solve a global issue.

Manuel Pulgar Vidal is the climate director at the World Wildlife Fund and served as the president of COP20 Peru.

Kerry, the former U.S. climate ambassador, acknowledged that these annual meetings had flaws but maintained their importance.

"We know that they are not enough but banging on and keeping the process going is better than absolute nihilism."

(source: Reuters)