SPECIAL RELEASE-Less Rain, More Wheat: How Australian Farmers Fought Climate Doom

Curtis Liebeck, in a newly planted wheat field scoops up some sand and pours it through his fingers. The light brown dirt is a far cry from the clumpy, dark earth of more rainy nations.

The Liebeck farm in Western Australia is 300 km (186 miles), away from Perth. It receives half as much rain as the wheatbelts in central Kansas and northern France. The state's growing-season rainfall has decreased by one-fifth in the last three decades.

It should be harder to farm. Liebeck's yield of wheat has doubled in the last two years. Liebeck, 32 is part of the revolution in farm management which has allowed Australia to produce 15 million metric tonnes more wheat per year than it did in the 1980s despite the hotter and drier climate. This is the equivalent of around 7% of the wheat that is shipped around the world each year, and it's more than Britain's annual harvest.

According to U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics, Australia's wheat-farming productivity has surpassed that of the United States, Canada, and Europe. It continues to grow, while other developed markets are slowing or reversing.

Many growers and scientists say that the ability of Australia's wheat farmers to produce more for a growing world population is largely due to a series of innovations made since the 1980s. These innovations changed how farmers planted seeds, how they planted them, and the way they cultivated the soil. The Australian system of applied researchers and the relentless search for efficiency by farmers who receive minimal subsidies have accelerated these advances.

This account of the way Australia's wheat farmers defied climate odds is based upon interviews with over 20 farmers and scientists, a review and analysis of more than 12 academic papers, and an examination and analysis of decades worth of farm data and weather. Visited four farms, two government research facilities and a seed breeding company.

Australia's fields aren’t the most productive, nor is it the largest wheat producer. It is still important, but for two different reasons. The modest population of the country means that its extra production is used to feed other countries. It is also the driest continent, and climate instability could have made some farming unprofitable. It is one of the top exporters of wheat in the world.

Five scientists said that Australia's success in dry-crop land research has inspired other countries, such as the U.S., Canada and Australia. Although some Australian practices have been widely replicated, like soil reengineering, others, like the re-engineering of soil, are not as widespread, because the ground conditions may be less suitable. The country's focus in closing the gap between maximum theoretical crop yields, and actual results has spurred worldwide efforts to improve productivity during the last 15 years.

Ken, his 66 year old father, was amazed that Liebeck's farm produced 1 ton per hectare despite the lowest rainfall it had seen in half a decade.

Liebeck said: "I asked my dad what life would have been in his time and he replied, 'Absolute Disaster'."

In such conditions, the elder Liebeck said he would only have produced 400 kg per hectare around the turn-of-the millennium.

BEACH SAND

Australia's farming has always been precarious. Weather conditions can change from drought to heat, fire, and flooding. The soil lacks nutrients.

Official weather data shows that Western Australia has experienced the largest decline in rainfall average of Australia's cropping regions over the last three decades. The rainfall patterns have changed, with more rain falling in the summer when fields are fallow and less in the winter when crops are growing.

It also has some the most poor soils.

Imagine beach sand," Tress said Walmsley CEO of Perth based seed breeding company InterGrain. The company develops wheat strains that are better suited to Australian conditions. These soils are depleted of nutrients, toxic and resistant to water. At the end of every season, the crop is dehydrated.

The thirst for water was the catalyst for many changes in Australian agriculture. Scientists Reg French and Jeff Schultz calculated in 1984 that, under ideal conditions, Australia's growers should be able, after evaporation of water, to produce 20 kilograms per hectare of wheat for every millimeter rain received during the growing season from April to October -- four times more than they were currently achieving.

John Kirkegaard is a plant scientist with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, the national science agency of the Australian Government. The researchers and growers focused on closing the yield gap and began benchmarking the water-use efficiency in order to extract more crop from each drop.

The key was to switch from tilling agriculture to no-till. The constant plowing of soil to control weeds damaged the soil and exposed it for evaporation. This reduced the amount water that could be stored by crops. The dust bowls of the 1930s in America gave rise to no-till techniques, which use herbicides rather than plowing. According to the Grains Development and Research Corp., Australian adoption increased from 5% to 80% in the early 1980s. Western Australia has a higher adoption rate than the rest of Australia.

Over time, the compacting of soils by farm equipment driving over tilled fields hampered water infiltration and root development. Farmers began to restructure the soils by spreading lime on them to reduce acidity and then using heavy machinery.

Liebeck shows off his deep ripper. It is a huge, orange steel frame with ten metal claws which can rip through soil up to 84 cm deep. The machine is so heavy that even his tractor with 540 horsepower can only pull it at a walking pace.

The spader is a rotating cylinder that has protruding shovels heads. It breaks up the compacted earth layers. No-till farming is a tillage method that does not use plowing or ripping to prepare the soil for planting. Spading and ripping are bolder, but less frequent interventions that often go deeper. The soil is restructured and the constituents are changed. Unproductive layers become a more absorbent mixture that holds water and nutrients better.

Liebeck stated that dragging the ripper across a field could increase his wheat yield between 36% to 50%. The machine cost A$220,000 (roughly $143,396). He said that the machine was "a bit expensive for a glorified hoe," but "digs up profits."

Farmers and researchers say that rippers and spaders may be used in other countries, but not as extensively as they are in Australia. In areas that are wetter, such as Europe and the UK, rippers can be difficult to pull through heavy soils.

Two-thirds of Western Australia's roughly 4,000 growers had deep-ripped, spaded or inverted their soil by 2023, state government-commissioned research found, up from 52% in 2019.

Kirkegaard said that efforts to improve Australian soil echo those in Europe and North America, where land is drained and then reclaimed from the sea. He said that the strategies used in Australia to turn poor farmland into productive land were probably unique.

Other innovations helped farmers curb disease. They introduced new crop rotating, including canola (also known as rapeseed), an oil seed, and lupins (a legume used in animal feed). Canola area in Australia has risen from 50,000 ha in 1989 to 3.5 mil hectares now, according to data provided by the agriculture ministry.

Kirkegaard explained that farmers began sowing up to four weeks early, and sometimes on dry soil, in order for plants to flower at the best time. Kirkegaard said that sowing began around mid-April. This gives wheat several months of growth during the winter and spring in the south, when there is still water available.

TAKE-OFF

Productivity soared. In the early 1980s, Western Australian farmers grew 3.3 kilograms of wheat per hectare, which is a third less than the national average. This was a third lower than the national average. In 2024 they were only one-fifth short of the national average of 11.5 kg.

These improvements have helped Australia double its exports of wheat in the past four decades, to over 20 million tonnes a year. The majority of the wheat is exported to Southeast Asia and Middle East where population growth has been rapid.

The rising production has held prices in check. In the 1980s, a bushel of Chicago Board of Trade wheat, which is the benchmark for the world, cost an average of $3.50. Since then, the world population has increased by 3.5 billion. However, a Chicago bushel now costs $5.50. This is a far lower increase than inflation.

Dennis Voznesenski is an agricultural analyst with Commonwealth Bank of Australia. He said that a serious threat to the Australian wheat supply could cause prices to increase significantly. He noted that Australia accounts for the same proportion of global trade as Ukraine before Russia's invasion. Wheat prices increased by 60% after the war caused disruptions in production and exports.

Farmers and researchers agree that there is still room to improve productivity.

Kirkegaard said that advances in seed breeding and farming management should increase maximum theoretical yields from 25 kg to 30 kg, and possibly even more.

According to Greg Rebetzke of the CSIRO, researchers and breeders have been testing wheat varieties whose protective sheaths - called coleoptiles – can be pushed up to a depth of soil between 10 and 12 centimeters, rather than 2 to 4 centimeters, allowing the seeds to penetrate the subsoil. According to Rebetzke, field trials have shown that long coleoptiles can increase yields up to 20%. Several varieties will be commercially available in Australia within the next five years.

Rebetzke explained that people are interested in the technologies developed by Rebetzke and want to know if they will be useful for their country. He cited Canada, India and Bangladesh as examples of countries with a high level of interest. "The dry climate we are experiencing is the future for some countries which are currently wetter."

Researchers in Western Australia have been experimenting with soil re-engineering, including the addition of clay, compost, and gypsum, to increase the earth’s ability to retain water and produce grain, according to Gaus Azam.

Ty Fulwood is a grower from Grass Valley in the east of Perth who showed what was achieved. He said that they were trying to make the perfect soil by adding clay to the top 10 centimeters of soil.

Fulwood admitted that the system is expensive but, if it can deliver on its promise of doubling yields, researchers and farmers will invest money in it.

There are limits to adaptation. Wheat does not thrive in conditions of high temperatures, as they accelerate the evaporation process and growth phase. The rain is decreasing and becoming less predictable.

In a paper published in 2017, plant scientist Zvi Hochman found that hotter and drier conditions reduced Australia's maximum wheat yield achievable by 27% from 1990 to 2015.

Hochman said that if we continue to work hard, we could achieve 80% of the potential yields. But going beyond this in a climate with a high degree of variability is unlikely to be economically viable.

There are also downsides. Scientific studies have shown that herbicides are harmful to the environment and can encourage resistant weeds. Australian farmers use more synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, even though it is less per hectare, than other countries, according to U.N. This is made using natural gas which contributes to carbon dioxide emissions. They are also affecting the Earth on a large scale.

Azam, a researcher, said: "We must always be careful because we disturb the natural soil." "But benefits far outweigh risks."

Other Nations

Australian yields are low compared to global standards due to challenging soil and weather conditions. USDA data shows that Australia's yield of 2.6 tons/hectare was lower than the U.S. (3 tons), China (5.9 tonnes), and Britain (7 tons) last year.

Since the 1980s, some developing nations have improved wheat yields faster than Australia, including China, India and South Korea. According to the USDA however, productivity growth has been slower in many advanced economies. This is due to soil degradation, restrictions on pesticides and fertilizers, and other factors.

Scientists and farmers credit Australia's low-subsidy system and its applied research system for setting it apart.

The Grains Research and development Corp is a statutory company established by parliament in 1990 to drive innovation within the industry. The government adds funding to the 1% that farmers give. The committees are made up of farmers, scientists, and agribusiness executives. Kirkegaard said that the research agenda doesn't revolve around farmers looking for quick fixes or scientists working on blue-sky projects.

This model is not replicated by many countries. Canada also has research groups that are funded by levy, but they're less centralised. Kirkegaard says that in Europe, researchers might never have spoken to a farmer. This can lead to studies that are not practical.

According to the OECD, Australia is among the countries with the lowest levels of agricultural subsidies. They are mainly used for biosecurity and research, not payments to farmers.

Liebeck, who lives in a farmhouse surrounded by eucalyptus trees, said that he's not intimidated by the increasingly hostile climate.

He said, "The challenge to grow more crops with less rain is thrilling." "I'm optimistic."

(source: Reuters)