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Australia prepares for its own fire seasons after European summer's heat
Australian firefighters are on alert after a destructive fire season in Europe. Australia has already experienced a'strong El Nino' weather event, which is characterized by hotter and drier conditions, as well as an increased risk of fires. Trent Curtin is the head of New South Wales Rural Fire Service (the world's largest volunteer firefighting service). Europe's fastest warming continent has experienced a scorching summer, which left the vegetation tinder dry and fueled severe wildfires. Italy's summer was the warmest in 75 years, while Britain's was the hottest since records began. Curtin stated that "we're experiencing some unusual conditions in the Northern Hemisphere right now." "They are experiencing fires they haven't experienced in a few decades, or maybe never before." Australia has a history of battling wildfires. The Black Summer fires of 2019 and 2020 destroyed an area as large as Turkey, killing 33 people. Authorities often conduct controlled burns to reduce the risk of wildfires. "This year, we are alert but not alarmed. "We're aware that the seasonal outlook expects a more active fire season than usual - conditions will also be hot and dry," said Alex Capararo. He was leading a hazard-reduction burn about three hours north of Sydney. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the peak 'fire danger season' usually begins?mid-October in the northern parts of New South Wales and in December in the southern areas.
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Bankers claim that India's Reliance is planning to sell its first local debt after three years, raising $1.32 billion.
Five merchant bankers said that Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries was'set' to return to India’s rupee bond markets 'after nearly three years'. This would be the 'largest single tranche fundraising' by a rated company since November 2023. According to bankers, the oil-to-telecom company plans to raise $1.22 billion through the sale of five year notes with an annual coupon rate of 7.47%. It will 'invite investors to bid in the week of September 18th, according to?bankers. This would be RIL’s first rupee-denominated bond issue since November 2023 when it raised 200 billion rupees, the largest local currency debt sale ever by an Indian non-financial firm. The bankers asked for anonymity because they were not 'authorized to speak with the media.' Meanwhile, the company didn’t immediately respond to an email asking for comment after normal business hours. Bankers said that a sharp drop in the yields of up to five-year local bonds has made this funding cheaper than selling dollar debt. Since the beginning of June, the?five-year bond yield has fallen 33 basis points. This is mainly due to the massive?dollar flows under the central banks' subsidised schemes. The flow of funds led by the non-resident dollar scheme lowered local yields while US Treasury rates increased the cost of funding in dollars for Indian borrowers. The bankers said that large?private banks will act as the arrangers of this deal and also?partly subcribe to these bonds. The company is also mulling over a 10-year issue of bonds and has been in talks with investors and bankers.
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As US envoys depart, Russian missiles strike Kyiv
Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, said that Russia resumed its airstrikes early Tuesday morning, shortly after the departure from the United States peace negotiators. The city was attacked with ballistic missiles, and six people were injured. Klitschko, who is a Russian-born boxer, said that after a series of what he called "ballistic missile"?strikes, people were trapped in a residential area and fires were raging across Kyiv. Separately, the Kyiv Military Administration announced on Telegram that a five-storey building and a residential block of three stories were damaged by falling debris. They asked people to seek shelter. According to its armed forces, as explosions rang out in Kyiv and neighbouring Poland, NATO and European Union members began military aviation operations on X. After U.S. peace representatives Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and Volodymyr Zelenskiy left after a meeting on Sunday with the Ukrainian president Volodymyrzelenskiy, Russia resumed their attacks as the Trump administration redoubled its efforts to end Russia's four-and-a half year war in Ukraine. After their return from Moscow, the Kremlin stated that it had not ruled out a resumption of the three-way talks. According to the regional governor, drones from Ukraine damaged civil infrastructure in Saratov on the Volga River, 730 kilometers (450 miles?) southeast of Moscow. This area contains a large oil refinery operated by the state-owned Rosneft as well as a number of industrial and military installations.
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Why isn't the price of oil higher than $100 despite disruptions in supply?
Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, has risen this month. However it has remained below $100 per barrel despite the recent escalation of the U.S. - Iran conflict which has caused disruptions in Gulf exports via the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea. According to Argus, Crude Oil?shipments are now at 11 million barrels a day (bpd), down from 18 million bpd prior to the Iran War seven months ago. What are the factors that influence oil prices? SIGNIFICANT VOLUMES CAN FLOW?THROUGH HORMIZ Claudio Galimberti, Rystad's Chief Economical Officer, stated that in the week prior to fighting breaking out again on August 30th, roughly 8-9 million bpd was flowing through Hormuz. This is double what it had been the week before. The daily moving average, while it has fallen below 2 million barrels per day (bpd), is still between 4 and 5 million barrels. This puts Brent at $95, which Galimberti deemed a "fair price". According to industry estimates, daily exports range between 6 and 8 million barrels. Kpler data on Monday showed that there hasn't been a very large crude ship visible leaving the strait for at least two months. During the interim U.S. - Iran peace deal of?July?, Hormuz exported reached pre-war levels at 16 million bpd. The Gulf Exporters are using Alternative Routes and Means Gulf producers are expected to continue shipping cargoes outside of Hormuz for ship-to -ship transfers, thus reducing some of the initial shortfall. Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings at its Ras Tanura Port in the Gulf, but its exports to the Red Sea from Yanbu remain under pressure due to a naval blocade by Iran-aligned?Yemeni Houthis. Yanbu exports fell to 1.429m bpd, a six-month record low, in August. This was down from 3.9m bpd on average in the three previous months. Exports of Sidi Kerir, Egypt's alternative port, reached 2.139 million?bpd during August, a volume more than double that of June. Iraq, the No.2 OPEC producer, saw its exports rebound in August to around 2.34 million bpd. Exports from No. Kpler data shows that the United Arab Emirates shipped around 2.9 million bpd between August and July, after reaching a record high in June. Kuwaiti crude oil exports recovered to around 1 million bpd between July and August. The U.S. oil embargo has caused a sharp decline in Iran's oil production. Other Producers are Taking the Lead According to Jarand Rystad of Rystad energy, non-OPEC producers such as the U.S. Canada and Guyana will increase their combined output by 1.4 million bpd in this year. This will help to fill the gap. Kpler data revealed that Russian refineries have been unable to process crude oil due to the damage caused by Ukrainian attacks on their plants. Russia has, however, lowered its oil production forecast for 2026 to the lowest level in 17 years, which could reduce its exports. The importance of demand destruction is significant Rystad reported that the demand destruction of transportation fuels and petrochemicals in the third quarter was 3.5 million bpd compared to 4.5 million in the second. China accounted for more than 50% due to the increasing use of coal-based chemicals and transport electrification. China, the top importer, has been dubbed "the new demand OPEC" because of its influence on the market. Its seaborne crude shipments have dropped to?7m bpd between July and August from over 11m bpd back in February. The markets have also been comforted by the vast reserves of Beijing, estimated at 1,17 billion barrels by Kpler. PHYSICAL MARKERS TELL A DIFFERENT STORY Data showed that spot premiums had rebounded to levels seen in April, with Dubai and Oman $19-20 a barrel higher than Dubai quotes for cargoes loaded in November. Oman futures traded on Monday at $104.54 per barrel, while Dubai cash was at $105.10 per barrel. David Fyfe is the chief economist of Argus. "We have already seen prices that are substantially higher than $100 per barrel, and more importantly, the diesel market is in a state of severe shortage." Recent U.S.-Iran tensions are expected to reduce Gulf exports, while demand increases as refiners increase production of diesel fuel. Diesel prices have reached a record in the U.S. ANALYSTS CHANGE FORECASTS Morgan Stanley, for example, expects Brent prices to average $100 per barrel during the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate price forecasts for December 2026 by $5 per barrel, citing the expectation that Middle East ship disruptions will continue into next year. Goldman Sachs now expects Brent to be $85 per barrel and WTI to be $80 in December 2026. Prices for 2027 will then remain at $80 per barrel and $75 per barrel respectively.
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Iran threatens US missiles with new missiles after threatening to create a new Gulf "exclusion zone"
Iran threatened the United States with "economic warfare" on Tuesday and said it had ?fired an advanced missile at U.S. warships,underscoring the risks of further escalation in the war only days after both sides traded blows again. The six-month war has been marked by periodic flare-ups and pauses. Last Saturday, U.S. forces attacked three Iranian oil tanks. Iranian state media reported on Sunday that Iran had fired the Qassem Basir rocket. Iran continues to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz despite U.S. efforts to open it. There is also no progress toward a diplomatic breakthrough which could end the conflict that began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Islamic Republic promised to announce a restricted zone in Gulf soon, as well as maps of a shipping corridor through Strait of?Hormuz. However, it is unclear when the details will be revealed. 'MARITIME EXCLUSION ZEA' Mohsenrezaei said on state television that the new restricted area would extend from the U.S. Blockade of Iran and into the Gulf. He added that any vessel entering this zone would be put on a list of Iranian sanctions. Rezaei reissued his dual economic and militaristic threats on X. Washington received a warning in recent days from Iran's missiles. A maritime exclusion zone will be established across the Persian Gulf from the blockade perimeter to counter economic warfare. Rezaei stated that the operational posture towards U.S. bases and warships has been fundamentally recalibrated. Rezaei was likely referring the Qassem Basir missile, which Iranian media claimed had been fired by U.S. Warships near Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Military said that its warships avoided?any missile attack. The U.S. has degraded the conventional forces of?Iran and punished its already weak economy. However, it still maintains its missile and drone capability to attack oil tankers that transit the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf neighbours which are home to U.S. bases. QASSEM BASIR MISSILE Iran has marketed the Qassem-Basir missile as an improved missile that can evade anti-missile defence systems and is equipped with a guidance technology that is effective in electronic warfare. Fars News Agency reported that its first combat use was in June 2025, against Israel. Analysts speculate that Iran's influence over the Strait of Hormuz is waning, while new harsh U.S. sanctions are making it harder for Iran to resist. The war is not popular in the U.S. according to opinion polls. This has increased the risk for Donald Trump's Republican Party to win the November congressional elections. "Oil will fall precipitously like all other prices (but even more!) When we win the war against Iran, oil prices will drop precipitously. The price of gas will eventually fall below two dollars a gallon. Trump stated on Twitter that it will all be done quickly and Iran won't have a nuclear weapon. Trump has not yet achieved the goals he set when he launched 'Operation Epic Fury' in February. He wanted to stop Iran from developing a nuclear program, to stop its ability to attack its neighbors and to create conditions that would allow Iranians to overthrow their government. PUNISHING ECONOMIC SANCTIONS The clerical leaders of Tehran remain in power, and they aim to "emerge stronger from the war" than ever before. They are continuing to call for sanctions to be lifted and they hope to eventually collect fees from vessels using the Strait. In the last 10 days, only 10 cargo vessels transited the Strait on average per day. This is the lowest number since May. According to Lebanon's Health Ministry, Israeli airstrikes on a southern Lebanon town on Monday killed at least twelve people, marking one of the most deadly days of bombardment of recent weeks. These attacks have fueled fears that Israel will resume its military campaign, despite the June ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. These attacks complicate the efforts to resolve the larger conflict. Tehran insists that any agreement between Washington and Tehran must include a stop to Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
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Asia stocks sway as the yen soars and Iran threatens retaliation
The yen surged Tuesday while Asian markets struggled to find direction due to a mix of regional economic data, and new 'Iranian' threats in the Persian Gulf. The Nikkei 225 index fluctuated between gains, losses and a slight gain of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the yen rose as high as 0.6% at 153.51, reaching its highest level since February 18. The KOSPI, MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, was up 1.2%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% on Monday after the U.S. holiday. Westpac analysts stated that while U.S. Labor Day was a quieter week in terms of trading volume, the weekend strikes between Iran and the U.S. continued to put upward pressure on the oil prices. This acted as a drag for risk sentiment. Brent crude futures rose 0.04%, to $97.04 per barrel, after reaching a six-week peak on Monday. Iran had threatened to retaliate by attacking energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, including U.S. interests in oil and gas. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was up 0.6 basis point at 4.788%. According to CME Group's FedWatch, traders are still pricing in an implied 60% chance of a 25 basis-point hike at the next two-day Fed meeting on September 16. This is about the same as it was a week earlier. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, traded around a 2-week low of 98.82?. The data released on Tuesday showed a mixed picture of growth. Revised data on Tuesday showed that Japan's economy grew faster in the April-June period than originally estimated, thanks to business spending. However, the figure was still below analysts' expectations. Data showed that Japanese real wages increased 2.4% in July compared to a year ago, the largest increase since May 2021. In a recent report, Capital Economics analysts wrote that wage growth is on the rise. This makes it more compelling for the Bank of Japan to accelerate the pace of tightening. In Australia, the shares fell 0.6% following a sharp drop in a measure for local consumer sentiment in September. Gold rose 0.5% to $4,428,23. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin grew 0.1% to $79333.01 and ether increased 0.2% to 2,498.94.
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Supply concerns about a prolonged Mideast conflict have heightened the price of oil
The oil prices continued to rise?on?Tuesday, as the risks of a long-term conflict in the Middle East increased after Iran threatened retaliation against any new U.S. attack on its assets. This heightened concerns over supply disruption. Brent crude futures rose 34 cents or 0.35% to $97.34 per barrel at 0000 GMT. U.S. West Texas?Intermediate Crude was $92.63 per barrel, up $1.15 or 1.26%. Brent reached its highest level in the previous session since?July 24, as traders built a risk premium to prices amid increased?tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major artery for crude oil shipments around the world. Iran warned Monday that the energy infrastructure in the Gulf, including U.S. interests in oil and gas, is vulnerable. The tit-fortat attacks?during weekend have not shown any progress in achieving a diplomatic breakthrough. According to the U.S. Central Command, U.S. forces attacked three Iranian oil tanks on Saturday, including one near Kharg Island - Iran's main oil hub. These attacks follow on from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' strikes against U.S. warships in the area. The recent escalation in the Middle East conflict has increased the likelihood of an extended standoff punctuated with calibrated military actions by the U.S. Daniel Hynes, ANZ analyst, stated?in a 'note' that the Persian Gulf could remain?constrained until 2026. We don't anticipate a return to the pre-war level of throughput until Q2 or Q3 2027. MARKET OUTLOOK Goldman Sachs has also raised its Brent and WTI prices forecasts for December 2026 by $5, to $85 and $85, respectively. For 2027 they have increased their forecasts to $80 and $75, respectively. This is due to the new assumption that Middle East Shipping disruptions will continue until 2027. Ed Meir, an analyst at financial services platform Marex, said in its September commodity outlook that crude oil prices would likely stay high through the end of the year as long as "the war" continues.
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Supply concerns about a prolonged Mideast conflict have heightened the price of oil
The oil prices continued to rise 'on Tuesday, as the risk of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East increased after Iran threatened retaliation against any new U.S. attack on its assets. This increased concerns over supply disruption. Brent crude futures rose 34 cents or 0.35% to $97.34 per barrel at 0000 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $92.63 a barrel at 0000 GMT, up $1.15 or 1.26%. Brent crude oil prices rose in the previous session to their highest level since the 24th of July, as traders continued to add a premium to the price of the product amid increased tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major artery for the global shipping of crude oil. Iran warned Monday that the energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, including U.S. interests in oil and gas, is vulnerable. The tit-fortat attacks that took place over the weekend were followed by a lack of diplomatic progress. According to the U.S. Central Command, U.S. forces attacked three Iranian oil tanks on Saturday, including one near Kharg Island - Iran's main oil hub. These attacks follow on from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' strikes against U.S. warships in the area. The recent escalation in the Middle East conflict increased the likelihood of "a prolonged standoff" punctuated with a calibrated military response by the U.S. Daniel Hynes, ANZ analyst, stated in a 'note' that the Persian Gulf could remain constrained until 2026. We don't anticipate a return to the pre-war level of throughput until Q2 or Q3 2027. MARKET OUTLOOK Goldman Sachs has raised their Brent and WTI price forecasts for December 2026 by $5, to $85 each and $80 for 2027. This is based on the assumption that Middle East shipping disruptions will continue through 2027. Analyst?Ed Meir stated in the September commodity outlook of financial services platform Marex that crude oil prices would likely stay high through the end of this year as long as?the war continues.
As fears of a prolonged Mideast conflict increase, oil prices rise
The oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday as the risks of a long-term conflict in the Middle East increased after Iran threatened retaliation against any new U.S. attack on its assets. This heightened concerns over disruptions to supply.
Brent crude futures rose 49 cents or 0.5% to $97.49 per barrel at 0400 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $92.92 per barrel, up $1.44 or 1.6%.
According to Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank's head of energy analysis, WTI is playing catch up with Brent after the Labor Day holiday on Monday. Brent had absorbed the weekend's increase a day before.
He said that the increase in hostilities between Iran and the U.S. could materially alter the markets' perception of oil-related risks, not just for 2026 but also well into 2027.
Iran has threatened the U.S., saying it will wage "economic war" on the country and that it fired a?missile advanced at U.S. Warships. This highlights the danger of a larger escalation after both sides have exchanged new strikes.
According to the U.S. Central Command, U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tanks on Saturday, including one near Kharg Island - Iran's main oil export center. These attacks follow on from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' strikes against U.S. warships in the area.
The recent escalation in the Middle East conflict increased the likelihood of an?extended standoff punctuated with a calibrated military response by the U.S. Daniel Hynes, a ANZ analyst, wrote in a report that the Persian Gulf could remain constrained until 2026.
We don't anticipate a return to the pre-war level of throughput until late Q1 2027 or early Q2 2027.
The shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed down at the beginning of this week after Iran warned on Monday that it would retaliate against any new U.S. strikes.
Goldman Sachs has also raised their Brent and WTI price forecasts for December 2026 by $5, to $85 and $85, respectively. For 2027 they have increased them to $80 to $75, reflecting the new assumption that Middle East ship disruptions will continue into 2027.
Ed Meir, an analyst at financial services platform Marex, said in its September commodity outlook that crude oil prices would likely stay high through the end of the year as long as "the war" continues.
(source: Reuters)