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Ashura is a time when Iranian pilgrims pay tribute to their fallen soldiers
Photos of loved ones who died in the war against the U.S. Iranian pilgrims and Israelis travelled to the Iraqi holy city of Karbala in order to commemorate Ashura - the 'holiest day' on the Shiite Muslim calendar. Ashura is celebrated on the 10th of Muharram (the first month in the Islamic calendar) and commemorates the death of Imam Hussein in battle, 680, in Karbala. This year, the annual mourning ritual has taken on a special significance. At least 3,000 people were 'killed' in Iran prior to the fragile ceasefire that took place in April. The U.S. signed a framework agreement with Iran this month in order to end the conflict. The faces of mourners could be seen amongst the black banners and flags of Ashura as crowds moved through the streets in preparation for Thursday's commemorations. A woman in the crowd clutched the?portrait Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei who was killed the first day of?war on February 28. An Iranian flag with his?portrait fluttering through the crowd. In addition, dozens of Iranians were killed in attacks against Israel,?U.S. The Gulf States and U.S. bases were also targeted by the Iranians. Ashura is celebrated by Shi'ite Muslims around the world every year in Karbala. The Imam Abbas shrine was filled with worshippers who participated in mourning processions. They beat drums, and even performed ritual self-flagellation to show their grief. Reporting by Ahmed Saeed, Writing by Yomna ehab; Editing and proofreading by Milla Nissi - Prussak and Alison Williams
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Sources: Russian refinery NORSI shut down after drone attack
NORSI, Russia’s fourth largest oil refinery, and the second largest gasoline producer, suspended operations after an?Ukrainian?drone attack on Wednesday. This move is likely to worsen fuel shortages across the country, according to?two sources in industry? on Thursday. Ukraine has said that its campaign of drone strikes against Russian energy installations is aimed at reducing a major source of funding for war and bringing the conflict closer to Russians. The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has stated that such attacks on civil infrastructure are meant to create a rift among the populace. Sources said that the attack at NORSI damaged CDU-5, a primary?refining?unit. The unit's capacity is 12,000 metric tonnes per day, or about a quarter of NORSI's production capability. The refinery may use other units in the near future to restart operations. Lukoil did not respond to a comment request. SPIMEX (the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange) has halted the sale of gasoline and diesel from NORSI - starting on Wednesday. Gleb Nikitin, the Governor of Nizhny Novgorod Region, said in a Telegram message on Wednesday that a 'industrial facility was damaged by falling debris from drones and two people were killed. He did not identify the facility. The refinery is located near Kstovo, in the Nizhny Novgorod Region about 450 km east of Moscow. The plant has the capacity to process 15 million tonnes of crude oil per year, and can produce 500,000 tons bitumen, 5 million tons gasoline, and more than 5 million gallons of diesel. Reporting by Mark Potter Mark Potter (Editing by Mark Potter).
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EU climate chief: 'Spectacular electric car sales' weaken the pressure to drop combustion engine ban
The European Union's planned combustion engine car ban is being weakened by a "spectacular" rise in sales of electric cars, said the EU's climate commissioner on Thursday as governments revealed their differences over the policy. After pressure from Germany, Italy and the auto industry, the European Commission proposed last year a rollback on the EU's effective prohibition of new combustion engine cars starting in 2035. Instead, the target was changed to a reduction of 90% in emissions. Some have said, both member states and the European Parliament: "Isn’t this a signal that the status-quo was already sufficient? "Isn't this a sign that the status quo was already good enough?" Some have indeed said, both member states and the European Parliament. Hoekstra stated that "the numbers are truly impressive... The electric vehicle sales in particular, especially the three biggest?markets but also secondhand, (are) really very?impressive." In recent months, electric vehicle sales have soared in certain countries as the U.S./Israeli war against Iran has pushed up fuel and oil prices. Data from the non-profit International Council on Clean Transportation shows that EV sales in Germany, Europe's largest market, increased by 39% last year compared to May 2025. France (93%), Italy (85%), and Poland (26%), all experienced large sales increases year-on-year. The EU is now in the process of negotiating a proposed rollback. It could still be amended. Diplomats said that countries were divided -- some wanted to make a'smaller change to the CO2 car rules, while others wished to make it weaker than what Brussels proposed. It was unclear which side would win. Germany and Italy called on the EU to soften its ban on combustion engines, in Italy's case, to allow more vehicles to be powered by biofuels rather than relying solely?on electric cars that emit no CO2. The meeting heard from Italy's Environment Minister,?Vannia GAVA. France and Sweden were among the countries that defended the combustion engine?ban. They warned that a weakening of it would delay urgently required investments to help European electric vehicle manufacturers remain competitive. Monique Barbut, French Climate Minister, said that a weakened policy in the wake of the energy consequences of the Iran War would send a "terrible message". (Reporting and writing by Kate Abnett; editing by Aidan Lewis).
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France urges World Bank to keep climate targets
The French development minister made an 11th-hour appeal to the World Bank on Thursday. He urged it to "resist the pressure of its largest shareholder, the United States, and stick to a climate financing target that is due to expire at the end this month. The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump has asked the World Bank to abandon its target to dedicate 45% to climate-related lending and instead focus on core development, including a resurgence in fossil fuel projects. CCAP (Climate Change Action Plan) has been extended for a year, but many Europeans and other World Bank investors are concerned that it will expire without a clear replacement. Eleonore Caoit, France's Development Minister, said that as shareholders of these institutions it was our responsibility to make sure their operations were sufficiently ambitious in terms of climate finance. "And, of course, this is the case when other shareholders have a different?view on climate as it 'is now," Eleonore Caroit said, referring the U.S. government of Donald Trump. The directors of the United States, Japan, India and Saudi Arabia declined to sign the statement. FRANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE Caroit. The train from Paris to London was delayed due to track problems caused by the record European temperatures. Shareholders who are supportive will "remain very attentive" as to what happens next. She said that she would continue to advocate for the correct direction of the World Bank Climate Change Action Plan. This is something that we have been doing in Washington and will be doing in Bangkok, in a few month's time, when referring to mid-October's annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF. She emphasized how U.S. resistance had stalled other global environmental 'initiatives', including the Plastics Pollution Treaty since Trump returned to office. "We shouldn't abandon. Caroit stated that we should keep focusing on the countries who want to continue, and make sure this produces results. She added that climate-related catastrophes are expected to increase in frequency due to global warming. "We must send a clear message to all countries, and to all economic players, especially in this time of backlash in certain countries." (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Marc Jones)
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Gold prices rise as dollar yields fall due to inflation data
Gold prices reversed course on Thursday and climbed higher after the U.S. inflation reading?came in line with expectations. This eased some concerns over imminent Federal Reserve rate increases and pushed down Treasury yields and the dollar. As of 9:15 am EDT (1315 GMT), spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,029.09 per ounce after dropping as much as 1% in earlier sessions. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery? rose 0.9% to $4.045.20 an oz. The PCE data appears to have been in line with expectations. David Meger is director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index surged by 4.1% over the past 12 months, marking the first time since April 2023 that the index has risen above 4.0%. Economists surveyed by predicted a 4.1% increase in?PCE inflation. After the data, the U.S. dollar lost its gains and turned lower. This made greenback-priced gold cheaper for overseas merchants. Treasury yields were also pushed lower. The CME FedWatch data showed that the markets see an 80% probability of a rate increase in December. This compares to an 85% likelihood before the release the PCE and a 61% likelihood before the Fed's statement last week. The main focus will continue to be inflationary pressures in the future. Meger said that this is one of the reasons why gold has declined over the last few sessions. Gold prices dropped below $4,000 per ounce?on Wednesday, for the first time since November 2025. This was due to expectations that interest rates will rise this year following the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Higher interest rates, despite being an inflation hedge, dampen the appeal of bullion as investors switch to yield-bearing investments. As a result, oil prices dropped to their pre-war level as the expectation?of increased supply from the Middle East outweighed concerns about demand. An accord?agreed to last week that ended the U.S. - Israeli war allowed for the resumption in traffic through the Strait. Spot silver increased 2.2%, to $58.68 an ounce. Platinum rose 1.8%, to $1.606.09. Palladium increased 2.7% to $1199.47. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)
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H&M prepares for hotter and longer summers as Europe is stricken by a heatwave
H&M's CEO Daniel Erver announced on Thursday that the retailer is adapting its clothing and marketing calendar in order to account for longer, warmer summers. This comes as Europe was gripped by a deadly heatwave for the fourth day. Erver said that H&M will design autumnal collections using lighter materials in order to appeal to shoppers as temperatures continue to rise until September. In an interview, Erver said that "we see the trend that summer is longer." "If it's 35 degrees in August (Celsius) or even 35 degrees in September, you want to update your wardrobe." The unseasonably warm weather that has continued into the back to school season, when stores traditionally start selling coats and jackets, has caused retailers' carefully planned marketing and sourcing schedules to be disrupted. This led to overstocks in recent years. Erver, a H&M spokesperson, said that the company needs to have a "material mix" that is suitable for hot weather, especially in parts of southern Europe, Asia, and the United States. SHORTS AND T-SHIRT TOPS Retailers around the world have to adapt to an increasingly hotter, more unpredictable climate. Global warming has disrupted supply chains and impacted consumer spending. Erver stated that "shorts, tank tops and linen are all important when there is a heatwave." "In a short period of time, consumers are very affected by weather changes." He was careful not to 'extrapolate any broader sales impact,' saying that the fluctuations are short-term. H&M said that its overall June sales are expected to be flat in comparison to last year. H&M has been trying to boost its sluggish growth but the results are slow to show. It struggles to compete with cheap online retailers such as Shein, and Inditex's Zara, at the higher end of fast-fashion. Reporting by Greta Rose Fondahn and Helen Reid, with editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak.
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China's gold imports through Hong Kong dropped 38% in May.
Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data released on Thursday showed that China's net imports of gold via Hong Kong dropped by 38% from April to May. China is the largest consumer of gold in the world. Its purchasing behaviour can have a global impact on gold markets. Hong Kong's data might not be a complete view of Chinese gold purchases, as it is also imported through Shanghai and Beijing. China's total imports of gold via Hong Kong fell by 34% in May to 65.562 tonnes, compared with April's 90.327 tons. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said that direct imports into China have been strong in recent months. This has made it less necessary to import from Hong Kong. Data from the People's Bank of China earlier this month showed that China's central banks gold reserves increased for a 19th month consecutively in May. The gold reserves increased to 74.96 fine troy-ounces at the end of the month, compared with 74.64 million the previous month. Hong Kong Futures Exchange announced late last month that it would introduce market-wide trading fees discounts and incentive programs for gold futures to?increase liquidity and revitalise?contract. On Wednesday, spot gold prices fell below $4,000 an ounce for the first time in?November 2025. This was due to a stronger dollar and expectations of interest rate increases by the United States. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Joe Bavier, and Noel John from Bengaluru)
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US tries to reassure Gulf Allies as traffic on the Hormuz rebounds and oil returns to pre-war levels
The United States announced that the Strait of Hormuz was?nearing normal' and their top diplomat had completed a Gulf Tour aimed at increasing support for an initial Iran deal. U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright stated on Wednesday that shipments through the Strait had reached levels before the U.S. and Israel launched their strikes against Iran on February 28. At least 20'million barrels' of oil left the strait within the last 24 hours. During the war, Iran effectively controlled the crucial chokepoint. This disrupted oil flows, shook the global energy markets, and affected the economy. Iran has signaled that it will continue to exert control despite the increase in traffic. The Revolutionary Guards of Iran warned ships on Thursday to adhere to the routes through the Strait designated by Tehran. They rejected newly announced shipping routes that were not coordinated with Iran, as being unacceptable and dangerous. The warning was issued after Oman announced temporary routes for shipping through the strait, in coordination with United Nations Shipping Agency. The International Maritime Organization of the U.N. reported that 57 vessels carrying approximately 1,100 seafarers had transited through the strait under the evacuation plan since June 23. Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, sought to reassure Gulf Allies who were wary about Washington's preliminary agreement with Tehran. He said that the United States is pursuing a lasting peace, which will not be at the cost of regional security and prosperity. He said that Tehran will not be allowed to charge fees for vessels that use the Strait of Hormuz. This was the route through which, before the war, around one-fifth of the global oil and gas flowed. "The truth is, no country in the world has the right charge for international waterways." Rubio said to Gulf Arab foreign ministers that this would never be acceptable as a condition in any agreement. Badr bin Hamad al Busaid, Oman's foreign minister, who is located across the strait from Iran told the meeting future shipping arrangements shouldn't include tolls. TRUMP FACES REPUBLICAN CRITICISM The U.S. president Donald Trump is facing increasing criticism in the United States over his Iran war. Trump and Senator Bill Cassidy clashed in a closed-door Republican meeting on Wednesday. This was just before Trump's administration requested tens billions of taxpayer dollars to fund the war. Many Republicans in attendance said that Trump and Cassidy engaged in a shouting contest. Cassidy said the administration should explain the framework agreement Trump signed last weekend, which gives Iran financial incentives but does not meet the goals he set out at the beginning of the war. Cassidy, a reporter, said: "It doesn't appear, but I can't be sure, that this is proceeding the way we were told." Senate Republican leaders, in a move that was seen as supporting Trump, scheduled a late night vote to block the resolution to end hostilities between Iran and the United States. The Senate, by a vote of 50 to 47, voted to stop the War Powers Measure that had been advanced in May. Trump posted on Twitter after the vote on Wednesday that "this vote puts Iran on notice", although it doesn't affect the previous vote. IRAN WAR WEIGHS UPON TRUMP'S REPUBLICANS Trump is feeling the weight of war ahead of the November elections, which will determine who controls Congress. A /Ipsos survey showed that only one out of four Americans believe the war is worth its cost. As a result of conflicting accounts, Trump has been criticized both at home and abroad for certain aspects of the framework agreement. There are still disagreements over Iran's financial incentives, nuclear inspections and the Strait of Hormuz. The deal sets up 60-day talks to address more difficult issues such as Iran's nuke programme. Scepticism about regional differences The deal has prompted scepticism among Middle Eastern countries, as many of them were attacked by Iran during the war. They view the agreement, which includes a $300 billion fund and some easing sanctions, as being too generous towards Tehran. The Gulf allies of Washington fear that the reconstruction fund will help Iran build its military. The agreement also doesn't address Tehran's missile capability. Iran has agreed to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to be free for 60 days. After that, Tehran may impose tolls. A diplomat who was briefed about the talks said that Iran may propose environmental, navigation, and security fees during upcoming discussions with Gulf states. Washington and its Gulf Allies are opposed to such fees. ISRAEL, LEBANON MEET ?IN WASHINGTON On Wednesday, Israel and Lebanon discussed in Washington a U.S. backed proposal that Israel withdraw its forces from some of the territory it had invaded. Senior Israeli and Lebanese government officials denied on Thursday that Israel had withdrawn some troops from the southern Lebanon occupied area, following a U.S. statement that Israel had done so in good faith. Israel has been fighting Hezbollah since March 2, when the militant group attacked Israel in support of Iran. Tehran's demands for a lasting peace agreement with the United States include a cessation in hostilities in Lebanon. (Reporting and writing by Bureaus; Editing by Gareth Jones).
Don't confuse turbulence and decline. McGeever: This market is on its feet
The markets are awash with red flags that warn of another turbulent second half. Don't mistake turbulence for a sign of an imminent correction.
Late bull markets are often characterized by wild volatility and price swings that can be irrational. This is the time when exuberance becomes irrational, to paraphrase the late Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan.
The?dynamics? are currently playing out in varying degrees on many markets.
Silver has fallen 55% since its January peak and Bitcoin's value has dropped by more than half since November. The tech market has been volatile. SOX Philadelphia semiconductor index posted 10% one-day drops, but was still up 90% from March. Micron Technology tripled to a $1 trillion in three months. Oracle plunged 30% in just June.
South Korean stocks are a perfect example of the turmoil -- and resilience -- that marked the first half of 2026. The AI-pumped KOSPI had a bullish market, rising by 50% in the first two month of the year. But it plunged into a bearish market three days later after the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran. It's no wonder that realized volatility reached record levels.
Since that low in March, KOSPI is nearly twice as high, despite four corrections of double digits.
This type of frantic behavior is usually a precursor to a more severe correction, a market crash, or a bear-market. These wild price swings, coupled with sky-high prices and a growing IPO mania are causing investors to be on alert that bubbles may soon burst. Even if the diagnosis of "irrational markets" is correct, fears about a sharp correction might be premature.
Room for EXUBERANCE
Wall Street certainly seems to believe that. JPMorgan strategists and Barclays analysts raised their S&P 500 forecasts for the end of 2026 to 7,800 points. This implies a further 5% increase. Meanwhile, BCA Research analysts increased their year-end outlook to 8,100 points, almost 10% higher than current levels.
BCA's team stated on Tuesday that "our constructive equity view is based on earnings and not valuation." The economy has moved from a slowdown to an expansion. Investments continue to grow, and earnings are stronger than expected.
This is a compelling argument until hard evidence to the contrary emerges.
Rarely, bull markets can fall under their own weight. A sharp reversal is more often triggered by a factor, like a sudden rise in interest rate, an error of policy, or a financial shock. We haven't yet seen one.
The first six months of this year brought a war, an unprecedented global energy crunch, a shift to hawkish Fed communication, and a growing concern over hyperscalers’ capex expenditure and debt issuance. Investors have ignored it all.
JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos–Bujas and his team acknowledge that even if U.S. equity markets are on the rise, their path will be “non-linear” and will require a number of hurdles to be overcome.
Recent quarters' earnings have raised the bar for future earnings. The upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to increase the equity?supply. The Fed may soon stop talking about tightening its monetary policy and start actually raising rates.
Rising borrowing costs are one of the main causes of a 'bull market' dying. There's no doubt that the U.S. Central Bank's recent hawkish pivot has been a major factor in the recent weakness of certain risk assets.
Investors will continue to see downdrafts, if earnings remain stable, AI continues its craze and the global economic system keeps on chugging, as opportunities for buying.
Greenspan's famous "irrational" exuberance comment was made in December 1996. This is more than three years before the peak of the dotcom bubble in March 2000. The current rally may have a long way to go.
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(source: Reuters)