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Aluminum prices continue to fall as Gulf production recovers and risk appetite wanes
Aluminum prices continued to 'loss' on Thursday. They fell to their lowest level in'more than four months. This was due to a combination of a weaker risk appetite and signs that the supply is recovering more quickly than expected after?disruptions? from the Iran war. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.8% to $3,053 per metric tonne at 0930 GMT. This was the fourth consecutive session with losses. Earlier in the session it fell to $3.040, its lowest level since February 19. LME aluminum has fallen by almost?20% in the last month, as the U.S. & Iran move closer to ending their conflict that caused disruptions of metal production in the Gulf. This accounts for about 9% global?production. The most traded aluminium contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.4% to 22400 yuan (3,300.09 dollars) per ton. Investors have taken some of the risk premium off prices due to a easing in supply concerns following the 'ceasefire' and improved outlook for regional trade flows. EwaManthey, commodities analyst at ING, said: Many investors bet that the Middle East would slowly recover its metal production for use in construction, packaging and transport. Emirates Global Aluminium, one of the largest producers of aluminium in the world, said that it would be able to restore production at its Al Taweelah site sooner than anticipated. Norsk Hydro has announced that it will partially restart aluminum production at its smelter located in?Slovakia during the fourth quarter. The LME complex as a whole was in the red, as 'risk appetite' waned. Asian shares also fell before key U.S. statistics. Manthey said that "a stronger dollar is not enough to offset the caution in advance of U.S. Payrolls data or concerns over demand." LME 'copper' fell 0.6% to $13,223 per ton, after a deadline of June for a report on possible U.S. tariffs against?refined?copper? passed without a White House announcement. Other metals include zinc, which?lost?1.5% at $3446.50 per ton. Lead?fell 0.1% at $1,864, Nickel?dropped 1% to $15,195, and Tin - lost 0.5% to $51,385.
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Gold rises on weak employment data and lower oil ahead US payroll report
Gold rose on Thursday, helped by a weaker oil price, soft jobs data and comments made by the Federal Reserve Chair that inflation risks had eased. This was ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Data. As of 0855 GMT the spot gold price was up 1.2% to $4,078.25 an ounce after reaching its highest level since last June 23. After U.S. payrolls for?June, the metal snapped a two day losing streak and closed higher at $4029.89. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery climbed 0.2% to $4,090.70/oz. Nikos Tzabouras is a senior market analyst with Tradu.com. He said, "The precious metal has rebounded today after Fed 'Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more dovish tone at the ECB Forum." Warsh stated?on Wednesday? that the Fed is committed to bringing inflation back to its target of 2%, and warned against expecting a looser policy. CME FedWatch shows that traders see a 63% probability of a rate increase by September. Gold is a non-yielding asset that has a high opportunity cost. Investors are now awaiting the June nonfarm employment data due at 1230 GMT for more clues about?the Fed’s rate path. A survey of economists revealed that nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 110,000 last month, after increasing 172,000 in May. Tzabouras said that any?notable weakening of the data would help gold move towards $4,250. However, it wouldn't be enough to lift it out from bear territory. The Fed will likely raise expectations if there are more than 100,000 new jobs. This would keep the bullion susceptible to further declines towards $3,500. Oil prices fell for the third day in a row after Qatar announced that Iran and the U.S. made progress on indirect talks focused?on the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices temper inflation fears, increasing bets on the Fed adopting a more restrictive policy. (Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema) (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema in Bengaluru)
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Singapore's oil products inventories fall to a two-week low
Official data on Thursday showed that oil product inventories in Singapore, a key trading hub in Asia, have eased after a recovery last week. This was primarily due to a drop in stocks across the barrel. Enterprise Singapore's data shows that the combined onshore oil products stocks were 40.45 millions barrels during the week ending July 1, a decrease of 4.1% compared to last week. The weekly average for June was 37.5 million barrels. Following an interim agreement between the U.S.A. and Iran, the markets are preparing for a gradual improvement in supply as more ships begin to leave the Strait of Hormuz. LIGHT DISTILLATES AND RESIDUAL FUELS - LOG TWO WEEK LOWS Singapore's light distillate inventory, which includes naphtha, gasoline and other products, has fallen to a new low in two weeks, falling to 12.7 million barrels. This is because net gasoline exports have outpaced imports. There are also strong flows of gasoline to important buyers like Indonesia. The total gasoline exports were about 337,000 metric tonnes (about 2.8 millions barrels). This was more than the imports, which were roughly 249,000 tons. Indonesia alone imported nearly 267,000 tons. Saudi Arabia supplied about 82,000 tonnes. The naphtha inventories likely increased as imports of approximately 206,000 tons (1.8 millions barrels) exceeded the exports of around 175,000 tons. Cargoes arriving mostly from Russia, at 91,000 tonnes, were the main contributors. Middle East imports were missing. The residual fuel oils inventories have also dropped, after a strong recovery last week. Stocks totaled 19.65 million barrels (3.0 million tons), a 3.2% drop week-on-week. Total exports dropped 53.7% to 165,000 tonnes, while imports declined 15.5%. After weeks of absence some inflows, including from Iraqi and Saudi Arabia, were finally recorded. The tanks' outflows were mostly destined for the Philippines and Vietnam. MIDDLE DISTRILLATES STOCK IS AT A THREE WEEK LOW The middle distillates stock, which includes diesel and jet fuel, fell?for nearly a week, but was still above 8 million barrels. Net exports for both fuels, however, were lower week-on-week. Net exports of diesel and gasoil fell by about 10% while jet fuel and Kerosene's net exports dropped 60%. Exports to Australia, Indonesia, and New Zealand were mostly diesel and gasoil. The wider east-west spread of the last week has led traders to expect fewer cargoes coming from India in the near future, signaling better margins for sellers on the west of Suez markets. For the week, most of the imports of jet fuel and Kerosene were from China and South Korea.
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After a heatwave in Europe, firefighters battle fires in southern France
On Thursday, firefighters were fighting a number of 'wildfires' in southern France that had been fanned out by strong winds. The country was suffering from parched conditions following Europe's recent heatwave. Interior Minister Laurent Nunez reported that three 'fires', of which two broke out at the western edge the Mediterranean port of Marseille, scorched an area of 12,100,000 square metres. World Meteorological Organization warned last week that sustained high temperatures and low humidity, combined with dry vegetation, would increase the risk of wildfires. The largest wildfire was burning near the border of Spain in the Aude administrative district area, with 900 hectares?burned. High winds are making it harder for the 800 firefighters to fight the fire, according to local authorities. Firefighters were taming a small fire in Rognac, near the airport in Marseille. They had also brought another nearby fire in Lancon-Provence that covered 260 hectares under control. Local officials confirmed that there were no injuries. A witness reported that an acrid smoke smell hung over the area. Pilots of at least one landing flight in the city assured passengers that the smell did not come from their aircraft. More than 2,000 people evacuated six campsites in Frejus (a resort town) in the Var department, 35 km from Cannes. The reason was a forest fire. France's weather service has warned of another extreme heat wave next week. The health authorities estimate that the last heatwave may have led to around 1,000 deaths. Reporting by Manon C. Cruz and Alessandro Parodi; Writing by Sudip K. Gupta and Charlotte Van Campenhout, Editing by Timothy Heritage Joe Bavier Richard Lough Thomas Derpinghaus
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Hungary to clampdown on EV batteries after pollution case
Hungarian Environment minister Laszlo Gajdos threatened to shut down factories in the EV battery industry if they did not comply with environmental regulations. This is a significant policy shift for Viktor Orban, a right-wing politician who lost his power in April. Orban, who lost power in April, has 'bet big on EV batteries. He will attract foreign investment of EUR26 billion ($29.69billion) by 2021, mostly from South Korean and Chinese companies, making Hungary a hub in Europe. Environmental and health and security concerns about the plants were a key issue before the election. Centre-right rival Peter Magyar who promised to take a "tougher stance" on the sector defeated Orban by a wide margin. Gajdos stated in a late Wednesday Facebook post that "we must restore the balance between industrial development and environmental conservation." "In the last 16 years, this balance has completely shifted in favor of industry." He said that those who repeatedly violate?regulations and jeopardize the health and safety of Hungarians and ignore Hungarian law have no place in Hungary. He promised to increase pollution fines to Europe's highest levels. Laszlo Papp is the mayor of Debrecen, a member of Orban’s Fidesz Party. He called on Semcorp, a Chinese battery parts manufacturer, to leave Hungary’s second largest city, due to recent environmental pollution findings. Semcorp's production license was suspended by the regional government office in late June after authorities discovered large-scale aluminum pollution in water samples collected from monitoring wells around the plant. Semcorp's?Hungarian Management, which produces aluminium and lithium-ion plastic films as well as separator films for batteries, did not respond immediately to emailed comments. Zsolt Tarkanyi of the Magyar Tisza Party, Debrecen, stated on Facebook that after the revelations the city mayor must resign. Magyar endorsed this call with three victory symbols under the post. Tisza has seen its popularity?increase further since the elections. A Median poll shows that 73% of voters are behind it, compared to 21% who support Orban's Fidesz.
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Sources say that Hengli China has cut its oil production and ceased to purchase oil from the Middle East, West Africa, and West African countries.
Five trade sources have confirmed that China's Hengli Petrochemical has cancelled its recent purchases of non-Iranian oil. This forced the company to further cut back on refinery operations as the inventory was running low. The strange cancellations came just a few weeks after reports that the refiner had purchased cargos from West Africa, the Middle East and other parts of the world to avoid Washington's list. Three sources briefed about the issue said that the refiner had cancelled at least six million barrels. They said that 2 million barrels (of West African oil) were delivered last month to storage tanks in eastern?China by a third-party. Two other 2-million-barrel Middle Eastern cargoes are also scheduled to arrive in July. According to one source, a Middle Eastern cargo has been resold. Sources spoke under condition of anonymity, as the subject is sensitive. It was not clear why the cancellations, which had never been reported before, occurred. Hengli is one of China's biggest independent refiners. Emails seeking comment or clarification were not answered and phone calls to the company did not reach anyone. In April, the U.S. placed sanctions on this refinery. Hengli denied having any dealings with Iran shortly after. As part of the interim peace agreement, Washington lifted sanctions last week on Iranian oil. Iran has increased oil loadings but it is unclear who may be purchasing oil under this new waiver. CANCELLATIONS RARELY OCCUR The traders added that it is unusual for large refiners cancel or default on deals at short notice. One of the suppliers said, "This is a big blow to the trading team. They tried so hard to get the mainstream market back. They knocked on doors and tried to reach out to many partners." Sources said that Hengli structured its purchases through a supply chain of traders in order to minimize any sanctions imposed on the parties. According to one source, it was difficult to determine which companies suffered losses. It was not clear whether Hengli compensated sellers. The refiner said in late April that its 400,000-barrel-per-day plant in ?northeast China was holding more than three months' worth of crude oil stocks, and that it ?would seek a legal path to being removed from the sanctions list. Hengli, unable to purchase non-sanctioned crude oil to replenish its stock, has been forced to cut back on its refining output, according to two sources. According to two different sources, the refinery reduced its operating rate by 50% after closing one?of two 200,000-bpd units for crude distillation in late June. Refinery operated at 70% capacity in early June, and more than 80% capacity in May. Reporting by Chen Aizhu, Trixie Yap and Florence Tan; Editing and editing by Edwina Gibbs and Florence Tan
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After Modi-Takaichi's talks, India and Japan sign pacts in AI, metals, energy, and other areas
India and Japan signed pacts to enhance their cooperation in metals, energy and artificial intelligence on Thursday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced after his talks with Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi has been in New Delhi for a three-day trip as the two Asian partners celebrate their 16th annual summit. Modi told reporters that the convergence of Japan’s precision technology with India’s software capabilities would give global AI development a new vigor and strength. According to Indian government statistics, bilateral trade between India and Japan reached $27.5 billion during the fiscal year 2025/26. Japanese investment in India was $3.2 billion from April 2025 until December 2025. Modi announced that both countries, which are members of the Quadrilateral grouping, had signed an agreement for their first joint development project in the defense sector. He added, "Through the India-Japan Bio-gas Initiative we will establish 1,000 bio-gas plants and organic fertilizer factories in India." Japan is one of India's biggest investors. It has backed major infrastructure projects, including a high-speed railway corridor connecting Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Japanese firms have increased their investments in Indian companies, including a $1.6 billion deal to buy a 20% stake at Yes Bank. Takaichi will be speaking at a conference on business later in the day with a 'large business delegation. (Reporting and writing by Tanvi Mhta; editing by YPrajesh).
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Aluminium prices fall as supply prospects improve
Aluminum prices dropped on Thursday, as improved supply expectations overshadowed the support of resilient manufacturing data. Benchmark -three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.46% to $3,062 per metric tonne by 0700 GMT. It fell to $3,040 a metric tonne earlier in the day, its lowest level since February 19. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract fell 0.38%, to 22,400 Yuan ($3,300.09). Emirates Global Aluminium announced that it would be able to restore production at its Al Taweelah Complex - one the largest aluminium production facilities in the world - sooner than expected, signaling an "improving outlook" for supply. Norsk Hydro announced on Wednesday that it will partially restartaluminium at its smelter?in Slovakia during the fourth quarter. Buyers of aluminium have found other sources of supply in the short-term. After surveys in China, Europe and the U.S. showed steady manufacturing activity, despite higher prices for raw materials, aluminium prices have been supported by robust manufacturing data. Other than that, the price of copper has been subdued since a deadline in June for a "recommendation" on possible U.S. Tariffs on refined Copper passed without an official announcement by the White House. On the LME copper dropped?0.49% and fell to $13,234 on the?SHFE. Kevin Warsh's balanced comments about inflation eased concerns that persistent price pressures would lead to higher interest rates for longer. Rate increases suppress economic activity, which in turn affects industrial minerals that are dependent on growth. Zinc fell 1.31% on the LME, while lead dropped 0.16% and nickel fell 0.79%. Tin also fell 1.32%. On the SHFE, tin fell by 0.23%, while nickel and lead both dropped by 0.96%. $1 = 6.8787 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar, Sonia Cheema).
Survey shows that small Japanese firms are most affected by the Mideast war due to high procurement costs
A joint survey by the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry revealed that the Middle East conflict has put the greatest strain on Japan's small and mid-sized businesses.
A survey of 2,497 firms across 47 prefectures conducted between May 7 and 29 found that 80% to 90% of companies were affected by rising fuel prices, while more than 50% of them were affected by disruptions in petrochemical supply.
The survey revealed more information:
* The highest impact on business was the increase in procurement costs, at 74.8%. This was followed by higher fuel prices (62.9%) and an increase in?logistics cost at 38.7%.
* Nearly 46.6% said that they have passed on the higher costs in full or part to their customers. 48.4% stated they have not done so.
The highest cost burdens were reported by the hospitality, manufacturing, construction and food service sectors.
Construction firms were disproportionately impacted by bottlenecks in supply and losses of orders due to delivery delays.
* Companies' most common response is to pass on the price increases. This was cited by 39.7%.
* Companies urged the government to provide cash flow support, relief for electricity, fuel, and gas costs, and ensure stable energy supplies. (Reporting and editing by Tokyo Newsroom)
(source: Reuters)