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Oil nears two-month lows, stocks extend rally on Gulf breakthrough hope
Asian stocks rallied on Friday amid hopes of a Middle East Peace Deal. The dollar and bond yields fell, oil prices dropped to a two-month low, and inflation fears were tempered. The market debut of?Elon's SpaceX is a hotly anticipated event. It has set a new record with the largest-ever initial public offer. The IPO raised a new record of $75 billion. This valued the rocket and spacecraft maker at $1.77 trillion, making Musk the first billionaire in the world. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that a deal for peace could be signed this weekend. This came after Trump had threatened to launch more attacks on Iran. He said that negotiations with Tehran were at the highest level of Iran's leaders and that a broad coalition?of regional powers had approved them. Trump's comments follow repeated episodes of optimism by the president, which have not resulted in a deal. This has kept markets on edge. Ray Attrill is the head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank. If we hear anything from Iran that is positive, it's clear the odds of a peace agreement are going to change dramatically. If confirmed, the deal would be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough to date in ending the war that has lasted three months and caused global energy prices to rise sharply. On Thursday, the European Central Bank raised?interest rates to combat war-induced inflation. Prices fell to a two-month low?after the announcement of an agreement, before reducing?some losses. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.2% last to $86.69 per barrel on top of 2.6% overnight. Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to $89.40 a barrel after falling nearly 3% over night. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 3.2%. This was led by the 7.4% increase in South Korea's KOSPI. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.3%, while China's blue chip CSI300 gained 1%. Wall Street surged overnight, with all three major indexes posting their largest daily gains since the U.S.-Iran agreement on a temporary "ceasefire" in April. The Nasdaq rose 2.5% on expectations of a successful market debut by Musk's SpaceX. IG estimates that the expected market capitalization of SpaceX by the end of the first day of trading would be just under $2.4 trillion. Tony Sycamore said that the market cap of SpaceX... would be about 35% more than the $1.78 billion valuation set for the IPO. This, in turn, indicates that the SpaceX share price will finish today somewhere between $175/$180. Treasuries kept their gains, as markets trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year due to hopes of a Gulf peace deal. The price of a rate hike in October is now 36%, down from 51%. The yield on two-year Treasury bills was unchanged at?4.074%, after falling 6 basis points overnight. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields remained at 4.4710% after dropping almost 8 basis points overnight. After overnight losses, the dollar stabilized. After a?0.4% decline in the previous session, it rose by 0.2% to reach 160.20 yen. The yen is still close to the 160 mark, which many traders see as a line drawn in the sand. After overnight increases, the Australian and New Zealand dollar were each down by about 0.3% against the greenback. Friday, precious metals began to decline again. After a 3.5% overnight jump, spot gold fell 0.6%, to $4,189 per ounce. Spot silver, meanwhile, also dropped 0.6%, to $66.93, after a 5.8% increase. Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam, and Kevin Buckland edited the report.
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India curbs bulk fuel buying at retail pumps, caps diesel sales
India has banned commercial consumers from purchasing gasoline and diesel from retail fuel stations, and placed limits on the daily purchase of diesel to prevent local shortages. This is due to disruptions in global supply chains caused by the Middle East war. According to a government directive issued late Thursday, retail fuel station dealers are required to sell no more than 200 litres per vehicle or customer a day. Customers cannot resell diesel. Diesel for commercial customers like trucking firms has been purchased at lower prices at state-run retail outlets than usual. This, in turn, has led to shortages of diesel at retail stations. The government stated that restrictions were needed to ensure a fair?availability? of petrol and diesel throughout the country, stop diversion and hoarding and maintain an uninterrupted fuel supply?at fair price. State fuel retailers lose about 36.5 rupees (0.38 cents) per liter of diesel sold to retail customers. However, industrial buyers can purchase the fuel at market prices. They lose 9 rupees a liter on gasoline sales. India is a net exporter of refined fuels. However, higher fuel sales within the country at subsided rates are affecting the profitability of state-owned fuel retailers such as Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. About 90% of India's fuel stations are controlled by three state-owned?fuel retailers. The government order referred to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and said that geopolitical tensions had strained the global petroleum supply chains, shipping logistics, and availability of petroleum products. This made prudent management and conservation necessary. The order stated that the measures would remain in effect for an initial period up to 90 days, unless they were revoked by a separate order.
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Oil hits a two-month low as stocks extend their rally on Gulf breakthrough hope
The dollar, bond yields and oil prices all fell, easing inflation fears. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has been making history by launching the largest-ever initial public offer. The IPO raised a new record of $75 billion. This valued the rocket and spacecraft maker at $1.77 trillion, making Musk the first trillionaire in the world. Donald Trump announced on Thursday, just hours after threatening to launch more attacks on Iran, that a deal could be reached as early as this weekend. He said that negotiations with Tehran have reached the highest levels of Iran’s leadership, and were approved by a broad coalition regional powers. Trump's comments follow repeated bouts optimism from the President that failed to produce a deal. This rattled market sentiment. "This does look perhaps a little more tangible than what we've had before," said Ray Attrill. He is the head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank. If we hear anything from the?Iran, that sounds positive (about a peace agreement), it is clear that odds will change quite dramatically. If confirmed, the deal would be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough to date in ending the three-month war that has driven global energy prices higher. To curb war-driven inflation, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for nearly three years. The news of an agreement sent oil prices to a two-month low. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 1.9% to $86.08 per barrel on top of the 2.6% decline overnight. Brent crude futures fell 1.5% to $89.08 a barrel after falling nearly 3% over night. The Nikkei 225 index of Japan rose by 4.3%. Australia's resource-heavy shares gained 1.8%. South Korea's KOSPI soared by 8.3%. Overnight Wall Street surged, with all three major indexes posting their largest daily gains since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement on April 8, when they agreed to a short-term truce. The Nasdaq rose 2.5% on expectations of a successful market debut for Musk's SpaceX. The Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, according to data. The number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits has increased slightly last week. This indicates that the labor market is still resilient. As markets lowered their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, Treasuries gained. The price for an October rate hike has dropped from 51% to 36%. The yields on two-year Treasury bonds were unchanged at 4,066%, after falling 6 basis points overnight. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rates held steady at 4.4631% after dropping almost 8 basis points overnight. Dollar losses were attributed to lower yields. The dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against its major peers, is now at 99.78 after losing 0.4% overnight. The yen climbed 0.1% to 160.19 yen after a 0.4% decline in the previous session. The yen is still below the crucial 160 level, and traders are on alert for any Japanese intervention. The lower dollar has helped precious metals. Gold spot rose by 0.2%, to $4,222 per ounce after a 3.5% overnight jump, and silver spot rose by 0.3%, to $67.52 per ounce following a 5.8% increase. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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Bangladesh tests solar panels on rice crops to provide food and power
Bangladesh tests whether crops can grow on solar panels Land scarcity fuels dual push for food and energy * The economics of agrivoltaic scaling up Tahmid Zami Tahmid Zami A nation of about?175 millions is dependent on imports to meet 95% of their?energy requirements. This dependence has been made worse by the rising costs due to the war in the Middle East. It is also looking at ways to diversify the energy supply, including more renewable energy. Solar energy is the largest source of renewable power in Bangladesh. However, it only represents 4.5% of total generation capacity. Solar panels can be installed either on roofs or on the ground. Roof space is limited, and ground systems take land that could otherwise be used for housing or farming. Sohanur Rahman is the executive coordinator for YouthNet Global. A climate justice campaign group. Researchers are looking into the new technology of "agrivoltaics", where crops and livestock share space with solar panels. This year, the Bangladeshi development organization BRAC and the research organisation Institute of Governance and Development launched a project to install solar panels over farmland at Manikganj. The town is located about 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the capital Dhaka. The H&M Foundation is a non profit linked to the Swedish clothing company H&M. RICE NEEDS THE SUN, BUT SHADE IS GOOD FOR WORKERS Bangladesh has little land that is not agricultural for solar power. Solar parks were previously proposed but scrapped because of concerns about land loss and livelihoods. Solar panels at Manikganj are more than two metres above ground level, which allows varying amounts to sunlight to reach the crops below. Researchers will measure rainfall, wind speeds and other microclimate information and compare yields with nearby controls plots in order to determine which panel height, spacing, and crop combinations balance food production and?generation. For farm workers in Bangladesh, the average wage is $7 per day. This includes rice, coriander and other crops such as bottle gourds, onions, pumpkins, and bottle gourds. Biswas, a farm worker, said that the shaded area helps to preserve soil moisture and also makes it more comfortable for the workers on hot summer days. The Wave Foundation and the German Development Agency GIZ, which works on poverty and climate issues in Bangladesh and Germany, have conducted agrivoltaic trials in Manikganj. In Chuadanga, agrivoltaic tests have also tested the rearing of goats and chickens. Rohini Kamal, assistant professor at BIGD, explained that farmers in Bangladesh prefer to grow rice, the main staple of the country, and this requires lots of sunlight. The ongoing project focuses on finding ways to grow rice using solar panels. He said that low-lying areas like Manikganj, which are often submerged by the monsoons, need rice varieties that can withstand flooding. The solar mounting structures must also be strong enough to withstand storms. Will the sums add up? The viability of agrivoltaics systems is dependent on several variables. A pilot study conducted in Chuadanga, 2024, estimated that the revenue generated by both crops and electricity would reduce the payback time for the panels from five to six years to three to four years under favorable conditions. Mehedi Bappy, agronomist and project manager at the Manikganj site, explained that lower, closely-spaced panels are less expensive to build but produce more shade. Higher, more widely-spaced structures are more expensive but are better for sun-loving plants like rice. Bappy says that the rice yield looks good so far, but more data is needed from other crop cycles. The project pays a daily wage to the workers, and the electricity produced is used to irrigate nearby farmland. Kamal explained that once the project is connected to the national grid it will be possible to export the excess electricity generated. However, existing rules must change in order for farmers and operators to receive direct payment for the power produced by solar panels on their land. Dipal Chandra Barua is the president of Bright Green Energy Foundation in Bangladesh, an NGO that installs renewable energy systems at small scales for rural communities. Researchers are still waiting to see if the solar panels placed above the crops will deliver on their promise.
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Vale's largest shareholder calls for a meeting to discuss the removal of its chairman
Brazil's Vale, one of the largest iron ore producers in the world, announced on Thursday that its largest shareholder, the pension fund Previ had requested a meeting of shareholders to vote "on the removal" of Chairman Daniel Andre Stieler. Previ, which manages 'pension funds for Banco do Brasil employees, has proposed appointing Jose Mauricio Coelho as Vale board chairman and backing the current board member Manuel Oliveira, according to a filing by the miner. Vale has stated that?Previ has argued Oliveira's contribution will be to "the strengthening governance practices, improvement of strategic management, and alignment with the interest of shareholders and stakeholders." The mining company has not released the document that it received from Previ. The pension fund didn't immediately reply to a comment request sent outside of business hours. Vale said its board is evaluating the steps needed to convene the meeting of shareholders. According to regulatory documents, Previ holds a stake of about 7% in Vale. Marcio Antonio Chimento was named CEO of the fund a month ago after Joao Louiz Fukunaga quit. Chiumento was appointed to Vale's Board of Directors earlier this year. (Reporting and editing by Kylie Madry, Daina Beth Solon and Andre Romani)
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ROI-Red-hot SpaceX IPO may burn retail buyers: McGeever
The media frenzy around Elon Musk's SpaceX's public listing is soaring. This poses a serious threat to investors, especially retail investors. In a large initial public offer, "mom-and-pop" investors receive no more than 10% of the shares, while the majority of the newly listed'shares' are held by?large institutions. This is a good way to protect small investors, as a new launch could fail in the first few days of trading or become volatile in the following weeks and months. The biggest institutions have the ability to handle market volatility and are able to tolerate losses with a high threshold. Retail investors cannot expect to experience the same level of risk. SpaceX's IPO is not typical, and it's not just the $1.75 trillion valuation. Retail investors will receive around 30% of $75 billion worth of shares. This leaves people more vulnerable to price volatility and volatility than normal. RED FLAGS There has never been a better time for individuals to participate in a major IPO. Fidelity Investments, a brokerage firm, recently took an unusual step by lowering the eligibility requirement to participate in an IPO. The account balance was reduced from $500,000 down to only $2,000. Robinhood Markets clients, SoFi customers, and E*Trade customers are not required to have any money in their account, while Charles Schwab requires a minimum of $100,000. Small investors could be lured in. Vanda Research, a retail flows tracker, notes that the usual increase in equity purchases after U.S. federal tax returns has been tepid. This could be because some investors want to raise?liquidity before the SpaceX IPO. Retail investors should be wary of large tech IPOs. Sam Grelck is an equity strategy analyst with Truist Advisory services. He has tracked 30 tech-related IPOs in the last 15 years. His findings indicate that a significant drawdown during SpaceX's initial year of trading seems highly probable. Within 12 months after the first day of trading, shares in each of these 30 companies experienced a double-digit drop. Some of the drawdowns were as high as 90% and averaged 55%. Investors should be aware of the high volatility and potential for large drawdowns in new listings, he says. His findings show, however, that even if the performance is uneven, returns are positive for the first three month following the IPO. The returns over the 6- and 12-month time horizons are usually negative. The ride is always bumpy. BOLD ASSUMSIONS Will SpaceX's ride be smoother? The numbers that support the IPO seem to suggest otherwise. Goldman Sachs, one of the underwriters for the IPO, estimates that by 2030, total revenue will grow from $18.7bn to $474bn, and its AI segment's revenue will increase 100 times to $322bn from $3.2bn. Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise's chief market strategist, says that this is a bold assumption. Morgan Stanley analysts, who are also underwriters, have forecast that total revenue will reach $3.4 trillion in 2040. SpaceX waived the requirement that employees wait for six months to sell their shares. Analysts warn that early investors and employees could monetize positions by selling shares to unsuspecting investors soon after the IPO. A rush of sales from insiders in a company could be met by a wall?of individual buying. It?might not, which means that many retail investors may be left with big losses during a downturn while more sophisticated shareholders leave early. At the top? Many analysts warn that, on a larger scale, the hype surrounding the SpaceX initial public offering is a clear sign that "the market has reached its peak". Of course, not everyone is in agreement. Noah Weisberger is the chief U.S. Equity Strategist at BCA Research. He notes that only 20% of mega-IPOs occur during market peaks. The previous mega-IPO wave is nothing compared to what's coming up in the next few months. SpaceX will be launching a monster IPO, followed by AI darlings OpenAI & Anthropic whose offerings are expected to achieve $1?trillion in valuations. Retail interest in other mega public listings is sure to skyrocket if SpaceX proves a success. If it fails, those who invested their?savings in the largest IPO ever will be searching for safety. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Equities rally, dollar dips with oil as Trump cancels Iran attacks
MSCI's global equity index rose on?Thursday, while dollar and bond yields dropped, along with oil and futures. This was on renewed hope for peace in the Middle East, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced he canceled planned strikes against Iran, and that a peace deal could be signed soon. After threatening to?bomb more targets and stating that he wants to "take" the oil export hub Kharg Island in the past few hours, Trump announced on Thursday that "talks have been brought to Iran's highest level and approved." In a Truth Social post, he also said that the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia had all approved "discussions" and "final points." He said the United States could sign a deal with Iran as early as this weekend. This would allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital energy conduit that has been disrupted by the conflict since late February. According to Iran's IRNA News Agency, Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Iran had not made a decision yet and would not compromise its "redlines" in negotiations. Oil prices dropped quickly on the energy markets after Trump's announcement, but they ended higher than their session lows. U.S. crude oil settled at $87.71 per barrel down $2.32 or 2.58%. Brent closed at $90.38 a barrel down 2.92% or $2.72. Wall Street's equities continued to rise after Trump announced his decision. They registered their largest one-day percentage increase since April 8, when the U.S. & Iran announced their ceasefire. Investors were eager for more information after the many twists and turn in the peace process. According to the administration, it's just another day that the war is close to ending. This drove the stock market up. Is this just another false lead, or is the market'really nearing an end? Rick Meckler is a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey, a family-owned investment firm. "The war, and its impact on energy inflation in particular, remains the biggest weight on market. Meckler said that if the war were to end, this would be a positive. Data earlier in the day showed that U.S. Producer Prices increased more than anticipated in May. This led to the largest gain for the year in three-and-a half years, as the Middle East Conflict drove up energy costs. The number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits last week increased slightly, which indicates that the labor market is still resilient in early June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 929.97, or 1.86 percent, to 50.848.55, the S&P 500 gained 127.31, or 1.75 percent, to 7,394.30, and the Nasdaq Composite grew by 640.16, or 2.54 percent, to 25.809.66. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 12.57 points or 1.16% to 1,099.55. As expected, earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.54%, after the European Central Bank announced its first rate hike in almost three years. On fixed income markets, yields fell on the hope of a 'peace agreement. Molly Brooks is the U.S. Rates Strategist at TD Securities. She said that investors will likely remain cautious until an agreement has been finalized. Oil futures may come down, but oil prices could still be high. Brooks stated that you may still see inflation in the coming months. The yield of the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 8.1 basis point to 4.457% from 4.54% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year bonds fell 7.2 basis points, to 4.9534%. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates from the Federal Reserve fell 6.5 basis points to 4.062%. It was 4.127% at Wednesday's close. Dollar lost ground in currency markets as demand for "safe-haven" assets dropped on the back of peace hopes. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.36%, reaching 99.69. Meanwhile, the euro rose by 0.37%, hitting $1.1579. The dollar fell 0.37% against the Japanese yen to 159.94. Spot gold increased 3.41%, to $4,212.21 per ounce, while spot silver grew 5.51%, to $67.20 per ounce.
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Grain futures fall on US weather and ample supplies, soy, wheat also sag
Analysts said that benchmark Chicago corn futures dropped to contract lows after the U.S. government's monthly crop report "understood ample domestic and international grain supplies" while weather forecasts in the Midwest were "generally favorable". This boosted?production prospects. The weaker trend was followed by soybean and?wheat?futures, though the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its estimate of U.S. wheat production for 2026 more than analysts expected in a report on supply/demand. Chicago Board of Trade July Corn settled down 7-1/4 Cents at $4.10-1/2 per bushel, after reaching a contract low of $4.10-1/2. July soybeans? finished down 8 cents to $11.15 per bushel, after falling to $11.08-1/4. This was the lowest price since February 4. CBOT July soft red wheat ended down 3/4 cents at $5.86-3/4 per bushel, but K.C. The July hard red wheat futures closed the day 4-1/4 cents above $6.34-3/4 per bushel. Storms continue to cross the Midwest crop belt causing localized hail and wind damage, as well as beneficial rains. In a client letter, StoneX's chief commodities economist Arlan suderman stated that the weather in the Midwest is currently considered to be favorable for crop development during June. The USDA's report for May contained few surprises, but the government increased its estimate of global corn stocks at the end 2026/27 of the marketing year from 277.54 to 281.22 metric tons. This is higher than a number of trade expectations. USDA has also increased its estimates for corn production in Argentina, Brazil and 2025/26. The CBOT Wheat futures declined but received some support when the USDA reduced its forecast of U.S. wheat production for 2026 to 1.543 billion bushels. The USDA lowered its forecast of U.S.?2026 wheat production to 1.543 billion bushels, down from 1.561 in May. This figure fell below the average analyst estimate. After a severe drought in the Plains, it was predicted that the production of hard red winter grain, the most important variety grown?in America, would fall to just 497 million bushels. This is the lowest level since 1957. The decline in crude oil prices has exacerbated the bearish mood in commodities. Oil prices fell after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had cancelled plans to attack Iran on Thursday. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz and Daphne Zhang in Beijing and Paris; and additional reporting by Gus Trompiz and Daphne Zhang in Paris)
Oil losses continue as Trump cancels planned strike on Iran
After U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled plans to strike Iran, fears of an escalation in 'hostilities' following tit-fortat attacks earlier this week were reduced.
Brent futures increased $1.21, or 1.3%, to $89.17 per barrel at 0042 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however, rose $1.23 or 1.4% to $86.48. Brent crude was 4.2% less than WTI on a weekly basis.
Trump, who threatened to hit Iran'very hard,' called off planned strikes Thursday, saying that discussions with Iran have progressed. Fars, Iran's semiofficial news agency, reported that Tehran has not approved the text of any agreement.
Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said: "This could be a false dawn but the market has reacted quickly and decisively."
Iran announced on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed, stating that any vessel trying to pass through it would face fire. The blockade by Tehran of the Strait of Hormuz, which is normally used to transport a fifth of all global oil and LNG shipments, kept oil prices high.
Commercial ships continue to pass through the waterway, according to the U.S. Military.
IG's Sycamore stated that even if oil prices correct -downwards "as long the?price?can hold above the support?in?the low $80s the risks are firmly skewed upwards," IG said. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; Sudarshanvaradhan)
(source: Reuters)