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McGeever: Wall Street's immunity against the Mideast oil shock is now being tested.

Wall Street was eerily complacent despite the 30% increase in oil prices and the massive sell-off of stocks around world as the war in Middle East intensified.

Investors likely bet that the turmoil would have a mild, short-term economic impact. This is similar to?most crises of recent years. Is it a market in action, or is this wishful thinking on the part of investors? Soon we'll find out.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 35% in the past week. This is the biggest weekly increase since U.S. benchmark oil futures were launched in 1983. However, the S&P 500 only fell by 2%. The Nasdaq fell a little over 1%.

What is going on?

Investors may think that the U.S. has a better chance of coping with an energy shock because it is a net exporter. Some investors may still hold the belief that "U.S. exceptionalalism" is still alive.

Many asset managers are waiting for clarity and may be sitting back, especially those who don't want to give up their "fundamentally bullish" outlook on corporate America.

Whatever the cause, it is possible that this optimism is either misplaced or reckless.

Take a look at this. According to The Kobbeissi Newsletter, a global market newsletter, in the first 41 days of trading 2026 the S&P 500 trading range was only 2.7%. This is the narrowest trading range ever recorded for this period, dating back to 1928. This will now be tested. Brent and WTI both soared above $100 per barrel Monday, putting oil on course for its largest daily gain in decades. Prices rose by more than 25% during Asian trading hours. However, they have since retreated.

Stock markets in other countries have also been shook. The benchmark European, Asian, and emerging markets indices that fell 5-7 % last week are now suffering even more losses. Japan's Nikkei index is down 5% more today. Korea's benchmark indices are also falling.

Many of these countries, however, are net energy importers. This means that they are more vulnerable to historical spikes in the price of oil and natural gases than the United States. Japan, for instance, imports 90% its energy. 95% of the?oil it imports comes from the Middle East.

Can Wall Street remain an outlier?

WON'T HISTORY REPEAT ITSSELF? The Middle East conflict is a terrible time for the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve had set a 2% inflation target, but the rate of inflation was at 3%. Payroll data released on Friday revealed that the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs during February.

Fed officials cannot ignore the growing stench of stagflation. Wall Street, or more likely bond investors, could condemn Jerome Powell and Kevin Warsh if they take a dovish position in the future, risking letting inflation out of hand. They also risk angering the markets if, instead of a hawkish anti-growth stance that puts price stability first, they adopt a dovish stance.

But policy paralysis is also not good.

Investors seem to be?banking that history will repeat itself. Most recent bouts of geopolitical turmoil in the world have been accompanied by a few weeks' mild volatility followed by a rapid recovery.

Parag Thatte, Binky Chadha and their research at Deutsche Bank show that geopolitical events have had a negative impact on U.S. stocks of 6-8 percent over the next three weeks. The markets recovered these losses in another three weeks.

Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James, states that the S&P 500 is higher, on average, one, three and six months after geopolitical events.

Analysts at JPMorgan say that a typical scenario for a geopolitical event would be a 5-6% drop in the stock market, followed by a recovery within a couple of weeks.

They wrote that macro-strategists tend to ignore geopolitics, and simplify the response by saying: "Just buy the dip." This rule of thumb was true 80% of the times over the last 60 years.

They added, "We believe the current episode of the Iran invasion is a scenario where you buy the dip."

The drawdowns are getting smaller, and there is barely any dip left to buy as of Friday.

Do markets have a better ability to filter out headline "noise" now that computers do the trading? Perhaps the playbook from 'past crises' still holds true. Has complacency taken hold and is it really different this time?

Wall Street futures were down on Monday morning, even though the jury has not yet been seated. A verdict could be coming soon.

The opinions here are those expressed by Jamie McGeever, who is a columnist at. Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)