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Investors prepare for greater backlash due to Middle East conflict

Investors are increasingly concerned about the prospect of a prolonged regional war and a power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This could have ramifications on everything from global trade, to inflation.

U.S. and Israel strikes on Saturday killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader. This caused chaos as Iran struck back against Gulf cities. Airlines halted their flights, and tankers that were transporting oil and other products stopped transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

First, there is uncertainty about what will happen next in Iran. This is due to the complexity of the Islamic Republic’s ruling system, its ideological base and the power that its Revolutionary Guards have.

This complicates the outlook of oil prices, which have been increasing for weeks. They are now dependent on what oil producing countries do, and the passage of tankers in the Middle East, and this has big implications for global inflation and the safety of bonds that were previously deemed safe havens.

Middle East tail risks are increasing. The markets will move from geopolitical shock to regime risk, prolonged conflict and not just retaliation unless Iran wants to negotiate", said Rong Ren Goh. He is a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, Singapore.

Analysts said that a greater?risk is the complacency of markets, which assume that the fallout will be limited as it was in June last year's "12 Day War" in Iran, or when Russia launched numerous attacks against Ukraine. They also dismiss any comparisons with Iran's 1979 regime change.

Brent crude rose around 8% Monday, a gain that has reached nearly 30% this year. Investors have also purchased U.S. Treasuries as a hedge against a range of risks including Middle East tensions, and President Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies.

Gold has had a record year last year, and it is up by 24% in 2026. The main U.S. index of stocks is only up 0.5%.

Barclays analysts wrote in a note published on Saturday that "history argues strongly for selling the?geopolitical-risk premium" when hostilities begin. What worries us is that the investors may have learned about this pattern, and undervalue a scenario in which containment fails.

Barclays analysts have identified other factors which could cause a fall in the stock market if the conflict escalates, including existing concerns about the artificial intelligence boom or private credit markets.

We would not recommend buying any dips immediately - the risk-reward ratio does not seem to be compelling. There will be a good time to buy if equities fall enough, say 10% or more in the S&P 500. But not yet," the authors wrote.

WHAT'S SAFE?

As oil prices rose, safe assets also gained traction. The dollar was broadly higher on Monday morning, while gold rose by about 1.6%. Treasuries were also in demand. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose about 8.5% to $79.05 per barrel, while S&P 500 Futures declined 1%.

The markets are ready for a limited surgical attack. Charles Myers is the chairman and founder at Signum Global Advisors - a geopolitical consulting firm. He said that a major attack to decapitate a regime is not priced into the markets. He spoke before the weekend U.S. and Israeli strikes.

William?Jackson is the chief emerging markets economist for Capital Economics. He believes that a conflict that affects supply could push oil prices up to $100. This would add 0.6-0.7 percentage point to global inflation.

"In my opinion, the market has already overestimated inflationary forces. I do not think that this will change very much." The impact will be greater on Europe, given the proximity of Hormuz gas and oil post-Russia", said Tariq?Dennison, a wealth advisor at Zurich's GFM Asset Management.

Gold has already been priced to reflect the maximum level of geopolitical risk.

Eastspring's Goh cited the constant drop in yields on?U.S. Goh pointed out that the 10-year yields have fallen below 4%.

He said: "I don't know if buying U.S. Treasuries is a good investment, especially if the oil prices spike, and incite inflation, or if things drag on."

Some analysts believe that Iran will not be able disrupt the trade in the Gulf Region and the impact on the oil price will be limited.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research in New York said: "We wouldn't surprise if the S&P 500 selloff on Monday morning turned into a rally driven by the expectation of lower oil prices after the latest Middle East conflict ends."

Gold could also double on Monday. He said that bond yields could fall because of both the safe-haven market and future oil price prospects.

(source: Reuters)