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Iron ore prices fall amid volatile geopolitical environment
Iron ore futures dipped as traders were cautious in the face of a tepid global political backdrop. However, recovering hot metal production and increasing inventories indicate that prices have more room to grow. As of 0312 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), traded 0.51% higher at 788 Yuan ($113.29). The benchmark iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange fell by 0.93% to $103.6 tonne. A?trader with knowledge of the issue said that traders are generally cautious in a geopolitical climate where prices for Singapore iron ore remain below $100 per ton. A Mysteel report published on January 26 said that prices would remain low due to the recovering hot metal production and Chinese Lunar New Year stocking. The report stated that iron ore inventories at steel mills were still lower than the same period of 'previous years. BHP Group, world's No. BHP Group, the world's No. Two traders reported that the stocks of BHP's Jimblebar Fines in major Chinese ports had risen 360% since late September, to 8.1 millions tons on January 13. Sources claim that Chinese steelmakers cannot take delivery of JMBF cargoes at ports. Steelhome's data from January 23 shows that iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports increased by 1.2% in a week. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were mixed on the DCE. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have firmed. The price of rebar increased by 0.38%. Hot-rolled coils gained 0.27%. Wire rods hardened 0.89%. Stainless steel rose 0.38%. ($1 = 6.9554 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich; Ruth Chai)
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Supply concerns in the US temper winter production disruptions
Prices of oil were not much different on Monday, after rising more than 2% the previous session. Supply concerns held back benchmarks despite disruptions to production in major U.S. oil-producing regions. Brent crude futures dropped 7 cents or 0.1% to $65.81 per barrel at 0221 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $61.01 per barrel, down by 6 cents or 0.1%. Both benchmarks closed Friday at their highest levels since January 14, with weekly gains of 2.7%. In the next few days, a U.S. aircraft carrier strike force and other assets will arrive in the Middle East. "Oil prices have been tickled by signs of production disruptions occurring in the U.S. this 'week, along with persistent geopolitical risks against the notion that there will be an oversupply of 2026," stated Priyanka Sackdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova Pte Ltd. JPMorgan analysts wrote in a Monday note that the U.S. has lost crude production of 250,000 barrels a day due to the harsh weather. This includes declines in Bakken oil fields in Oklahoma and Texas. Winter storm Fern has hit the U.S. Coast, forcing shutdowns in major oil and natural gas-producing regions, and adding stress on the power grid, she said. She added that the oil markets have experienced a mild increase as outages tighten the physical flow. Analysts say that traders are also on the alert for?geopolitical risk', given that tensions between Iran and the U.S. keep investors on edge. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that President Trump's announcement of a U.S. armada heading toward Iran has re-ignited fears about supply disruption. This has added a premium to crude oil prices and boosted risk aversion today. A senior Iranian official stated on Friday that Iran would consider any attack as "an all-out battle against us." Separately the Caspian Pipeline Consortium of Kazakhstan reported that it had returned to full loading capacity on its terminal at the Black Sea Coast on Sunday, after completing maintenance on one?of three moorings points. Sachdeva, a Phillip Nova representative, said that traders are more concerned with the sustainability of the surplus than they are about headlines. The overall oil market still indicates soft structural fundamentals for 2026, unless OPEC+ and major producers announce meaningful reductions. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Sudarshan Varadan and Florence Tan)
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Gold reaches record-high of $5,000 on the safe-haven rush
Gold surged to record highs above $5,000 per ounce on monday, continuing a historic rally as investors piled in the safe-haven assets amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Gold spot rose 1.79%, to $5,071.96 an ounce, at 0159 GMT. It had touched $5,085.50 just earlier. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery gained 1.79% per ounce to $5,068.70. Metal prices soared by 64% between 2025 and 2025. This was due to sustained demand for safe havens, monetary policy ease in the U.S., central bank purchases - China extended its gold buying spree in December for a 14th month - as well as record inflows in exchange-traded fund. Prices have risen by more than 17% in the past year. According to Kyle Rodda of Capital.com, the latest catalyst is "effectively this crisis of trust in the U.S. government and U.S. asset, which was set off last week by some of the erratic decisions made by the Trump administration". The U.S. president Donald Trump abruptly reversed his position on Wednesday after threatening to impose tariffs against European allies to gain leverage over Greenland. He said over the weekend that he would impose a tariff of 100% on Canada if they followed through with a deal with China. He has 'also threatened to hit French wine?and Champagnes with 200% Tariffs to pressure French President Emmanuel Macron to join his Board of Peace Initiative. Observers fear that the Board of Peace could undermine the United Nations as the primary global platform for conflict settlement, even though Trump says it will work alongside the U.N. Rodda continued, "This Trump administration is causing a permanent rupture to the way that things are done. So now everyone is?sort of running towards gold as the only option." A rising yen has pushed the dollar down on Monday morning, as markets are on high alert for a possible intervention by the Federal Reserve in regards to?the Japanese yen. Investors have also been reducing their dollar positions before this week's Federal Reserve Meeting. Gold priced in greenbacks is more affordable for those who hold other currencies. "We expect more upside (for gold)." According to our current forecast, prices are expected to peak around $5,500 by the end of this year, said Philip Newman. Newman said that periodic pullbacks will occur as investors take their profits. However, we expect each correction to be brief and met with strong buyer interest. Spot silver rose 4.57% to $107.65 an ounce after reaching a record high of $108.60. Spot platinum increased by 3.26%, to $2 857.41 an ounce. Meanwhile, spot palladium increased by 3.2%, to $2 074.40 an ounce. Silver broke through the $100 barrier for the first-time on Friday. This follows a 147% increase in the previous year, as retail investor flows and momentum-driven purchases compounded an extended period of tightness on the physical metal markets.
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S-Oil, South Korea's oil company, reports a Q4 profit surge and says that Q1 refining profits will remain robust
S-Oil, a South Korean oil company, announced on Monday that it had recorded a 91% increase in its fourth-quarter operating profits. It expects the first-quarter refinery margins to be robust due to the steady demand and disruptions of supply as well as a planned U.S. refining plant closure. According to market expectations, the refinery, which is owned 63% by Saudi Aramco reported an operating profit for the quarter of 424 billion won ($293 millions). The operating profit of its refining division increased by 55%, to 225.3 billion won. It said that the refining margin of gasoline from Dubai crude had risen to $13.4 dollars a barrel in 'the final quarter 2025. This is compared to $6 dollars a barrel a year ago. S-Oil ran its crude distillation units at its 669,000 barrels-per-day oil refinery, located in the city of Ulsan (southeast Korea), at 95% capacity from October to December. The rate was 96% in 2025. S-Oil has announced that it will close its No. S-Oil said it plans to shut down its No. 2 RFCC by 2026 to perform scheduled maintenance. Analysts say that the recent drone strikes by Ukraine on Russia, and the sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia, have restricted Russia's petroleum supply. This has contributed to a high refining margin. Analysts predicted that continued sanctions from the EU by 2026, and Ukraine's attacks on processing facilities would sustain a strong refining profit margin. Analysts predict that the recent crises in Venezuela and Iran will also affect the competitiveness of China's processing plants, which import crude oil at low prices from these nations. Valero Energy Corporation has previously stated that its unit plans to close the refining operations at its Benicia Refinery in California, U.S.A. by April 2026. The company stated that S-Oil’s $7 billion project, named Shaheen to build a large production complex of petrochemicals in Ulsan in South Korea, will be mechanically completed in the first half 2026. The project is aimed at producing up to 3.2 millions metric tons of petrochemicals per year from crude oil.
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Oil gains hold as Iran puts investors on edge
Oil prices continued to rise on Monday, after gaining more than 2% the previous session. Tensions between the U.S. Brent crude futures increased 12 cents or 0.18% to $66 per barrel at 0127 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $61.21 per barrel, up $14 cents or 0.23%. Both benchmarks closed?on?Friday at their highest levels since January 14. In the coming days, a U.S. aircraft carrier and?strike force are expected to arrive at the Middle East. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Thursday that the U.S. has an "armada," heading towards Iran, but he hoped not to have to use it. He had told Tehran, not to kill protesters, or restart its nuclear programme. A senior Iranian official stated on Friday that Iran would consider any attack as "an all-out battle against us." Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that President Trump's announcement of a U.S. armada heading toward Iran reignited fears about supply disruptions. This added a premium to crude prices and encouraged risk aversion more widely this morning. After completing maintenance on one of the three moorings, Kazakhstan's Caspian?Pipeline Consortium reported that it had returned to full capacity at its terminal at?the Black Sea Coast on Sunday. As a winter storm began to sweep the United States on Friday, the crude and natural-gas production dropped and spot power prices rose. JPMorgan analysts wrote in a report that "Oil production has been also affected by the severe winter weather with losses of about 250,000 bpd" (barrels a day). This includes declines in Bakken, Oklahoma and parts of Texas. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Florence Tan, reporting)
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Thailand releases endangered Leopard Sharks as part of conservation efforts
A young Indo-Pacific Leopard Shark glided into the waters of southern Thailand's Maiton island after a short countdown. This was the first attempt to "rewild" this endangered species. The spotted shark, once a common sight among snorkelers and divers, has been declining in the wild due to habitat loss and overfishing over the last decade, even though they thrived in private tanks. Why not release the successful breeding population from the aquariums back into nature so that the wild populations can recover? Metavee Chuangcharoendee is the project manager of the StAR Project Thailand. This partnership was launched last year by the government, aquariums, and NGOs. In December, the newest release included the nearly two-year-old sharks Maiton Hope Spot Toty. The pups were among seven released to date, after having been bred and reared in an aquarium for a little over a year. All were taught the behaviours that they would need to survive in the wild. This included a sea pen at Maiton Resort where 'they adjusted to natural conditions. The sea pen was built to help acclimatise sharks to their new environment. Shark nannies take care of them - feeding them daily, monitoring their growth, and recording their health in general. This will allow them to stay healthy and prepare them for life on the open ocean, said Metavee. Marine veterinarians performed final health checks on the pups two days before they were released to the sea in December. Before the animals could be released, they were subjected to a series of tests, including ultrasounds, which assessed the internal health of the sharks, as well as the installation?of acoustic trackers, DNA samples, and measurements. Metavee, who is a wildlife conservationist in Thailand, said that while the species of sharks are protected under Thailand's laws on wildlife conservation, they need to be better managed and given more protection. Metavee's success does not just depend on the number of sharks it releases, but also the signs of a true recovery, such as frequent sightings of divers, proof of breeding in nature, and the absence from the fish market of leopard sharks. "That is probably what I'd call a long term success," she said. (Reporting and writing by Napat Hasshasartar; editing by Himani Sarkar).
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Gold Rushes surpass $5,000 as record high in safe-haven rush
On Monday, gold surged above $5,000 per ounce to set a new record. Investors piled into the safe-haven investment amid escalating geopolitical tensions. By 2341 GMT, spot gold was up 0.85% to $5,024.95 per ounce, while U.S. futures for delivery in February rose 0.91%, reaching $5,024.60. Gold prices will soar 64% by 2025. This is due to sustained demand for safe havens, a easing of U.S. monetary policies, and robust central bank purchases. China extended its gold buying spree in December, as well as record inflows into exchange traded funds. Prices have risen by more than 16% in the past year. "We expect more upside." "Our?current prediction suggests that prices will reach a peak of around $5,500 in the second half of this year," said Philip Newman at Metals Focus. Newman said that periodic pullbacks will occur as investors take profit, but each correction is expected to be short-lived with a strong buying interest. The escalating tension between the United States, NATO and Greenland over Greenland is expected to increase financial and geopolitical uncertainties this year. The geopolitical front saw Ukraine and Russia end a second day in Abu Dhabi of talks mediated by the United States without a deal. More discussions are expected next weekend. Overnight, Russian airstrikes knocked power out for more than a million Ukrainians during a?subzero-cold night. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that on Saturday, he would impose 100% tariffs on Canada if they follow through with a trade agreement with China. He warned Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, a deal "would put his country at risk". Independent analyst Ross Norman stated that "our forecast for the coming year is gold will reach a high price of $6,400 per ounce, with an average of $5,375." Spot silver increased by 1.72%, to $104.72 per ounce. Spot palladium was unchanged at $2,013.50 an ounce. The price of silver surpassed $100 for the first-time on Friday. This followed a 147% increase in the previous year, as momentum-driven purchases and retail-investor flow exacerbated the tightness on the physical market for the metal. (Reporting from Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, and Kavya Baliaraman; Additional reporting by Pablo Sinha, Himani Sarkar and Subhranshu Shu.)
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Gold Rushes record high above $5/oz
On Monday, gold reached a new record of $5,000 per ounce as investors continued to pile into the asset that is considered a safe haven amid increasing geopolitical tensions. By 2321 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.94% to $5,029.62 an ounce, while U.S. futures for delivery in February rose 1.02%, reaching $5,029.70. Independent analyst Ross Norman stated that "our forecast for the coming year is gold will reach a maximum of $6,400 per ounce, with an average price of $5,375." Gold's recent gains have been fueled by the escalating tension between the United States, NATO and Greenland. This is due to increased financial and geopolitical uncertainties. The geopolitical front saw Ukraine and Russia end a second day in Abu Dhabi of talks mediated by the U.S. on Saturday, without a deal, but more talks are expected next weekend. Overnight,?Russian strikes knocked out power for over a milion Ukrainians, amid subzero temperatures. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he would impose 100% tariffs on Canada if they follow through with a trade agreement with China. He also warned Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney?that such a deal could endanger Canada. Gold soared 64% in 2025, underpinned by U.S. monetary policy easing, central bank demand - ?with China extending its gold-buying spree for a fourteenth month in December - and record ?inflows into exchange-traded-funds. Spot platinum fell 0.21% to $2,762.25 per ounce. Spot palladium increased 0.22%, to $2.014.50 an ounce. Silver spot prices rose?above 100 dollars an ounce on Friday for the first-time, adding to the 147% increase in the previous year. Retail investor and momentum-driven purchases added to the prolonged period of tightness on the physical markets for precious and industrial metals. (Reporting from Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, Pablo Sinha for additional reporting; Diane Craft, Himani Sahu and Subhranshu Sahu for editing)
Gold surpasses $5,000 per ounce as the Yen soars amid intervention risk
Gold soared to $5,000 an ounce on Monday morning following a week of turbulence, with tensions over Greenland & Iran causing a stir. Meanwhile, markets were on tenterhooks due to a bond rout and violent spikes in yen.
After a series of sharp spikes on Friday, speculation about a possible intervention sparked, the yen gained 0.5% at 154.84 to the dollar by 0052 GMT. Sources say that the New York Federal Reserve performed rate checks on the Friday before, increasing the possibility of a joint U.S. and Japanese intervention to stop the currency's decline.
Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Capital Markets' chief market strategist in New York, said that the cat-and-mouse yen game is likely to continue into the next week, but for now, the one-way market seems to have been broken.
The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.6% during early trading, while S&P futures dropped 0.4%. Nasdaq's futures also declined 0.7% as traders awaited Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, provided temporary relief for markets by reversing threats of tariffs and downplaying possible forceful actions against Greenland. Further sanctions against Iran have exacerbated market anxiety.
The increased pressure from the United States against Iran has pushed oil prices up and lifted gold, a safe haven, to new highs above $5,000 an ounce. Silver and other precious metals have soared this year in a fervent rally.
The Yen Swells Intense Intervention Chatter
Sources say that while authorities in Tokyo refused to comment on the wild swings of the yen, the New York Federal Reserve conducted rates checks on Friday. This has traders on edge, as they fear an intervention at any moment.
Sanae Takaichi, the Japanese Prime Minister, said that her government would take all necessary measures to combat speculative movements in the market.
Michael Brown, senior strategist at Pepperstone said that rate checks are usually the last warnings before interventions. He noted that the Takaichi government appears to have "a much, much higher tolerance for speculative FX movements than their predecessors."
The risk/reward ratio has now shifted massively in favour of JPY short positions. Nobody will want to risk being 5/6 figures out if/when MoF or their agents pull the trigger.
Last week, a steep fall in the bond market in Japan had brought to light Takaichi’s fiscal expansion. She called for a snap election on February 8, which is now due. Investors remain nervous despite a stabilisation of the bond market.
On Monday, the yen also grew against other currencies. It was a little firmer than it had been against the euro and Swiss Franc records and against the sterling multi-decade lows.
Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist at Saxo. He said that the warning in the form of a rate check could reset the market's positioning and remind it there's an important line between 159-160.
"With the dollar looking softer, it is a better time for Japan to lean on yen weakness. "Intervention works best when it goes with the wider USD tide and not against it."
The dollar index - which measures the U.S. against six rival currencies - hovered near its four-month-low at 97.224, after falling 0.8% on Friday, its biggest one day drop since August.
This week, investors will be focused on the Fed. At a meeting that is overshadowed with a criminal investigation by the Trump administration into Fed Chair Jerome Powell whose term ends this May, it's expected that the central bank will hold rates steady.
Oil prices in commodities have eased after rising by about 3% last Friday. Traders are assessing the impact that Trump's pressure on Iran to impose more sanctions on vessels transporting its oil.
Brent crude futures fell 0.18% to $65 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.2% to $60.92 a barrel. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong in Singapore)
(source: Reuters)