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Stocks rise, US yields fall on increased Fed expectations

On Tuesday, global stocks rose and were on track for their third consecutive session of gains. Investors remained confident that the Federal Reserve will cut U.S. rates at its meeting in December, while U.S. Treasury Yields fell. Alphabet, Meta Platforms and other gains on Wall Street helped U.S. stock prices close higher. Google's parent company closed at $323.44, a record high. It is now close to $4 trillion market capitalization. This would make Google the fourth company in history to achieve this milestone. The Information reported Meta Platforms' 3.78% gain as the largest lift for the S&P 500. The company is in negotiations with Google about spending billions on chips from Alphabet to be used in data centers beginning in 2027.

Investors also parsed an avalanche of economic data. Some of it was delayed because of the 43-day U.S. shutdown.

The Commerce Department reported that retail sales in September rose by 0.2% after an unrevised gain of 0.6% in August. This was below the 0.4% increase expected by economists surveyed by the. Labor Department reports that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% from an unrevised drop of 0.1% in August. This was expected, since energy costs increased and producers passed some tariffs on. ADP released more recent data Tuesday, indicating that private employers in the United States shed an average 13,500 jobs over the last four weeks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 664.18, or 1.4%, to 47,112,45. The S&P 500 gained 60.76, or 0.9%, to 6,765.88. And the Nasdaq Composite rose 153.59, or 0.6%, to 23,025.59. Since Friday, stocks have been rising after New York Fed president John Williams stated that interest rates could fall in the short term. Other policymakers however insisted on borrowing costs remaining steady. This boosted market expectations of a rate reduction. These expectations were further boosted on Monday by comments made by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president Mary Daly and Fed governor Christopher Waller, who both supported a December rate cut.

Bill Merz is the head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, Minneapolis.

"We have data this morning with slightly softer employment markets. That should be a major consideration for Fed voting member, and I believe it is." These slightly softer labor markets confirm that this wasn't a one-off blip.

Small-cap stocks also saw a boost from the increased expectations of rate cuts. The Russell 2000 closed up 2.14% for its third consecutive session.

The trading volume will likely decrease as Thanksgiving Day approaches in the United States on Thursday. Markets will be closed on that day, and Friday's session will be abbreviated. MSCI's global stock index rose 9 points or 0.92% to 991.31; it was on course for its largest three-day percentage increase in over six months. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed up 0.91% on the back of the prospect of Fed rate cuts and optimism about a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. U.S. yields dropped after the influx of data. The benchmark 10-year U.S. note yield fell 3.4 basis points to 4.002%, after falling to 3.988%. This was its first time below 4% since the 29th of October. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in a 82.7% probability of a Fed 25 basis point cut at its meeting in December, a far higher percentage than the 50.1% they were predicting a week earlier. Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated in a TV interview that the state of the job market is deteriorating due to the Fed's short-term rate target.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) declined by 0.37%, to 99.83. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.4%, at $1.15667.

The pound strengthened by 0.47%, to $1.3164, ahead of the UK's budget announcement scheduled for Wednesday. Traders also piled into options markets in order to protect themselves from increased volatility. The traders have been watching closely for any signs of possible Japanese interventions in the yen. It has strengthened 0.53% to 156.09 dollars per yen but is down by 1.3% this month. U.S. crude oil settled down by 1.11% at $57.95 per barrel and Brent settled for $62.48 a barrel, down by 1.4%. This was after Ukraine indicated support for an American-backed framework to end the war with Russia.

(source: Reuters)